NOC Two Mafias Mafia - Won by The Pack

[Ehmcee]

An interesting stat, is that purely statistically if we don't vote, there's a 33% chance a scum dies tonight due to scum shooting the other team.

Math

I think this is right

1-(9/11)^2 = 0.33

 

[ImaginaryNeon]

more deaths at night gives town less breathing room, kp roles can help with breathing room by blocking kills

we need more kills
I want more die

 

[bluegummybear]

What’s your plan to get us to a place where we can solve the game?

I don’t mind no voting but hoping a crossfire and someone getting interesting results is maybe not the best course of action and more importantly, fairly boring way to play

Personally, I have been kinda wait for more people to kinda come on and post. but the usual plan would be just to Vote someone out. While

scum is more "in the dark" about claims, I think the chance of cross-fire can still be fair.

 

[a fairy]

An interesting stat, is that purely statistically if we don't vote, there's a 33% chance a scum dies tonight due to scum shooting the other team.

Math

I think this is right

1-(9/11)^2 = 0.33

i did this already!!!!

 

[ImaginaryNeon]

i did this already!!!!

yeah but it doesn't count because I have an imaginary redcheck on you

 

[Ehmcee]

i did this already!!!!

me when i don't read thread

also i did math better suck it :P

 

[a fairy]

me when i don't read thread

also i did math better suck it :P

well yeah i used an online calculator

 

[pulsar512b]

idt a roughly 30% chance is "pretty unlikely"

i guess so yeah 2 chances for it to happen shifts the math a lot

 

[ImaginaryNeon]

me when i don't read thread

also i did math better suck it :P

go commit ALG 2A PREAP

 

[bluegummybear]

i will continue to believe that you are referring to peggle

Looked this up, seemed like a game I would enjoy as a kid.

 

[pulsar512b]

An interesting stat, is that purely statistically if we don't vote, there's a 33% chance a scum dies tonight due to scum shooting the other team.

Math

I think this is right

1-(9/11)^2 = 0.33

1-81/121=(121-81)/121=30/121 which is ever so slightly less than 1/3 and more than 0.33 (bc 30/120 would be 1/3)

 

[Ehmcee]

Also assuming if we did vote someone today, and hit town, that'd boost odds of scum hitting each other to 36%. Which tbh prob isn't worth from a stat perspective.

 

[pulsar512b]

well, probably more than 0.33

 

[Ehmcee]

That's obviously ignoring all the useful info we gain from wagons though

 

[Ehmcee]

1-81/121=(121-81)/121=30/121 which is ever so slightly less than 1/3 and more than 0.33 (bc 30/120 would be 1/3)

where tf do the 81 and 121 come from

 

[bluegummybear]

ok im newer this is my first multiball game why would we have kill-prevention roles

Well, I'm not an expert but seeing how there are 2 scum-killing factions I would think a counter would be the existence of a kill-prevention role on the town side. However, I could be wrong.

 

[pulsar512b]

where tf do the 81 and 121 come from

81=9*9, 121=11*11

 

[pulsar512b]

oh question for Lady Salamence how has running masters went so far (other than nobody reading the op and bossaru bossaruing)

 

[ImaginaryNeon]

If we hit town, chance for both sides individually becomes 1/6.
If we hit scum, one side has 1/6 odds and the other has 1/12 odds.
just off the top of my head

 

[ImaginaryNeon]

If we hit town, chance for both sides individually become 1/6.
If we hit scum, one side has 1/6 odds and the other has 1/12 odds.
just off the top of my head

fixed

 

[a fairy]

oh question for Lady Salamence how has running masters went so far (other than nobody reading the op and bossaru bossaruing)

rewarding but the first tournament of its kind and the struggles are definitely there. the system we're using for swiss is fine but it makes undoing the host errors much harder. and im making a fair bit since im handling 500+ players / 250+ matchups and far too many unplayed games. with each week now, more people get eliminated, which is good. more eliminations at x-3, less games to look at, less unplayed games (so many signup-and-never-log-in-again folk). ive seen so far your record you haven't lost yet right? well done so far!

 

[pulsar512b]

rewarding but the first tournament of its kind and the struggles are definitely there. the system we're using for swiss is fine but it makes undoing the host errors much harder. and im making a fair bit since im handling 500+ players / 250+ matchups and far too many unplayed games. with each week now, more people get eliminated, which is good. more eliminations at x-3, less games to look at, less unplayed games (so many signup-and-never-log-in-again folk). ive seen so far your record you haven't lost yet right? well done so far!

ya i got act win, won a set vs elrog pretty easily, haxed the fuck out of isza in SS and then he brought scarf dazzling gleam bulu in sm

 

[pulsar512b]

rewarding but the first tournament of its kind and the struggles are definitely there. the system we're using for swiss is fine but it makes undoing the host errors much harder. and im making a fair bit since im handling 500+ players / 250+ matchups and far too many unplayed games. with each week now, more people get eliminated, which is good. more eliminations at x-3, less games to look at, less unplayed games (so many signup-and-never-log-in-again folk). ive seen so far your record you haven't lost yet right? well done so far!

wasnt osdt also swiss? or is that not really comparable due to like tournament size and such?

 

[a fairy]

ya i got act win, won a set vs elrog pretty easily, haxed the fuck out of isza in SS and then he brought scarf dazzling gleam bulu in sm

who's your r4 opp? that's finch's part of the bracket i dont touch that stuff

 

[pulsar512b]

super glad we have a swiss instead of the stupidass formats smogon is entranced with