NOC Secret Hitler Mafia - Game Thread [FASCISTS WIN]

Errr I think you lost me with this part. I understand 6/9 from your POV. Of course I could have been recruited since then. But why would my actual chance of being town be 54% after adjusting it(?). I guess you are factoring in the legislation 1 and 2 policies are both equally likely so would that easily change it?
Bayes Theorem: P(You were town or anarchist|You put 3/1 to the chancellor) = P(You put 3/1 to the chancellor given you were town or anarchist)*P(You were town or anarchist)/P(You put 3/1 to the chancellor)

Being town or anarchist is 7/9 in this calculation and gets 63%. Being town after that is 6/7 of that number, or 54%.

That is assuming that an anarchist would play d1 like town, which isn't obvious to me either way. Which is why I ran the numbers with P(You are town) at 6/9 as well for consideration.

Of course you could be recruited. Anyone could, but all this math was about your behavior on d1. I didn't have any info on d2.

Insomnia is a pain, shit's rough irl these days.
 
Ok im going to sleep. Ill be on tomorrow morning. I checked and we only lose if

1) anarchists outnumber everyone
Presuming we never vote and they cant recruit more than one, that's rough for them. I guess in like a 2:2 scenario they do win

2) fascists have a majority. I suppose they win in a 2:2 scenario?

3) 12 fascist legislation (we need 10)

4) 8 fascist legislation and hitler elected.
I think we need to be way more careful after this point. Once (if) we reach 8 fascist legislation, then we may want to only nominate specific people. If we have named townies, this should never happen.

--- other considerations ---
Liberals get a forced vig at 6 fascist policies. If we get there, we should definitely never shoot a named townie of course. If a VT dies its kind of fine. Btw i think shooting an anarchist recruit is bad. Because they can just recruit more then.

Tldr I think we are actually cruising, if we reach 8 fascist policies it gets a bit spicy.
 
I mean, I dont see much harm in continuing to NL for now. We need 10 policies to win, Fascists need 12. I guess if they manage to vote Hitler after...need to check how many policies.. that is bad, but we arent there yet.

You are right we should get 2 liberal policies more often than not. Even at 1, we are still plausibly pacing for a victory.

Im fine with rotating the Chancellor a bit, but we should maybe find someone town to vote as chancellor repeatedly.

Also Blazade I have to check the anarchist wincons again but fwiw I can nearly guarantee that I would have played town as anarchist D1.
I do agree with essentially all of this. It's important to find a trustworthy chancellor eventually and my gut is that an anarchist would likely play closer to town. I also think the odds are ultimately in our favor going for legislation.
 
I expected there to be now going on by the time I went to lunch. Whatever your opinions, I think it's better to make sure there are more than two active votes at DL and that most people post a few times

I'm heading back to work but I'll be sure to check in and vote when I get home.
 
i think continuing not to lynch is fine, i am a little concerned about the anarchist however

if we dont lynch today then by the next day the anarchists should have 3 people while we only have 4 liberal policies implemented at max, meaning by the time we have 10 liberal policies implemented the anarchists will have at least 6 people.

I could be wrong with my calculations but at the current rate i think we might be on a losing path if we dont lynch
 
Yes to the first, the second is a holdover, sorry - you need to kill all Fascists to win.


Yes, No Vote is a valid option in this game.

Anarchists are capped at one recruit as I confirmed yesterday, so I actually think this isn't so big a concern. Having to have more anarchists than people left in the government means they need to be up against a single person.

Basically if we go for a legislative victory the anarchists never even have a chance, but the fascists could get lucky with some endgame president pairs and have really good odds to find hitler and have approximately 2 cracks at making him chancellor at 8 policies.

If we start killing people we may find ourselves trapped if we get closer to endgame and haven't hit 1-2 scum but if we hit even one mafia it's basically impossible for them to recover and we can go back to no executions.
 
Anarchists are capped at one recruit as I confirmed yesterday, so I actually think this isn't so big a concern. Having to have more anarchists than people left in the government means they need to be up against a single person.

Basically if we go for a legislative victory the anarchists never even have a chance, but the fascists could get lucky with some endgame president pairs and have really good odds to find hitler and have approximately 2 cracks at making him chancellor at 8 policies.

If we start killing people we may find ourselves trapped if we get closer to endgame and haven't hit 1-2 scum but if we hit even one mafia it's basically impossible for them to recover and we can go back to no executions.
ah right, im not so concerned then about anarchist, no execution seems like the best play then for now at least
 
Vote: AngryPidgeon

I only have the math to back me up on this one but that's better than literally everyone else in this game besides a fairy.

Hardly anyone is talking, no one is voting, the mafia isn't even informed, so I'm out here questioning what to even do. I'm also fine with no execution or a fairy vote but if people want either of those things they can start putting their money where their mouth is.

The only leverage scum even has in this game seems to be to lie as president, so that's what I'd like to pressure.
 
Vote: AngryPidgeon

I only have the math to back me up on this one but that's better than literally everyone else in this game besides a fairy.

Hardly anyone is talking, no one is voting, the mafia isn't even informed, so I'm out here questioning what to even do. I'm also fine with no execution or a fairy vote but if people want either of those things they can start putting their money where their mouth is.

The only leverage scum even has in this game seems to be to lie as president, so that's what I'd like to pressure.
Why vote ap?
 
Because he and fairy have about a 54% chance (slightly less given the chance of anarchist recruit even) to be town given their policy claims and either one of them is an above rand shot.

I would love anyone who feels differently to vote so the day doesn't end with a 2 vote majority again.
 
Because he and fairy have about a 54% chance (slightly less given the chance of anarchist recruit even) to be town given their policy claims and either one of them is an above rand shot.

I would love anyone who feels differently to vote so the day doesn't end with a 2 vote majority again.
i fear i am confused by these statistics- where do these numbers come from?

Vote: No Vote
 
i’m voting for no vote - albeit slow, i think we have a better chance of actually getting somewhere by being careful around the ~8 fascist policy mark considering we need 10 to win, and there’s a decent? chance we could get more than one liberal policy in a cycle (33% if i remember blazade’s earlier math correctly).
 
You've left me one minute to explain before deadline, so I'll have to get back to you tomorrow but you can look up Bayes' Theorem tonight for a primer

I appreciate the vote and agree that that path is also perfectly fine here.
 
Votecount 2.1 - Roughly 30 minutes to deadline. Current vote leaders marked in red.

AngryPidgeon
[1]: Blazade
No Vote [1]: thechickening
Not Voting [8]: CrreamyKitty, des121, Munchy_Axolotls, a fairy, saberslasher11, Carl The Turtle, AngryPidgeon, Evie

If the day were to end right now, nobody would be voted off [as any tied vote defaults to no vote - see OP].
 
I'll just go down one route for the math, similar calculations with different assumptions just require some slightly different numbers

Assume that town and anarchist both behave the dame on day 1. If not, change the numbers slightly to account for this. Gonna do this for AP instead of fairy but the math is basically the same for both.

We want P(AP is town or anarchist|AP submits 3+1), which is the probability he is town or anarchist GIVEN that he submitted 3 and 1. Basically this tells us the likelihood that him submitting 3 and 1 is cause he is mafia vs because he is unlucky.

This is equal to P(AP submits 3+1|AP is town or anarchist)*P(AP is town or anarchist)/P(AP submits 3+1) by Bayes' Theorem.

P(AP submits 3+1|AP is town or anarchist) is 33%, as the only scenario a town or anarchist would do this is if they were given 4/1, which happens 33% of the time.

P(AP is town or anarchist) is 7/9, assuming the person doing the logic is town. You can substitute 7/10 if you do not want to do this, but I do, because anyone using this logic to inform their vote should take this assumption.

P(AP submits 3+1) is 33%*7/9 (the probability he is town or anarchist and submits 3/1) + 66%*2/9 (the probability he is mafia and gets one or two liberal policies, and submits 3/1)

Do all that and you get 63%. Multiply by 6/7 to get the chance he is just town and you get 54%
 
Deadline! Final votecount:

Current vote leaders marked in red.

AngryPidgeon
[1]: Blazade
No Vote [1]: thechickening
Not Voting [8]: CrreamyKitty, des121, Munchy_Axolotls, a fairy, saberslasher11, Carl The Turtle, AngryPidgeon, Evie

As the day has ended, nobody was voted off [as any tied vote defaults to no vote - see OP].

Edited to add: 1 Liberal and 1 Fascist policy was passed today.

It's now night 2. Please get your night actions in by 8:30 PM GMT-5 on March 4th, 2025, to allow for me to process actions and get out the next day phase.
 
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