Bayes Theorem: P(You were town or anarchist|You put 3/1 to the chancellor) = P(You put 3/1 to the chancellor given you were town or anarchist)*P(You were town or anarchist)/P(You put 3/1 to the chancellor)Errr I think you lost me with this part. I understand 6/9 from your POV. Of course I could have been recruited since then. But why would my actual chance of being town be 54% after adjusting it(?). I guess you are factoring in the legislation 1 and 2 policies are both equally likely so would that easily change it?
Being town or anarchist is 7/9 in this calculation and gets 63%. Being town after that is 6/7 of that number, or 54%.
That is assuming that an anarchist would play d1 like town, which isn't obvious to me either way. Which is why I ran the numbers with P(You are town) at 6/9 as well for consideration.
Of course you could be recruited. Anyone could, but all this math was about your behavior on d1. I didn't have any info on d2.
Insomnia is a pain, shit's rough irl these days.