NOC Secret Hitler Mafia - Game Thread [FASCISTS WIN]

So what, here we just nominate the new chancellor before DL? Then policies and vote before the next DL?

I ran some numbers last night on how likely each possible hand of liberal policies is and how that affects the conditional probability of AP being town.

5 liberal policies: .4%
4 liberal policies: 4%
3 liberal policies: 16%
2 liberal policies: 33%
1 liberal policy: 33%
0 liberal policies: 13%

Because I (or, similarly, you, the person reading this and applying this logic in good faith to themselves) am town, AP has a 6/9 chance of being town. If anarchists are expected to play day 1 like town does, then his chance of being town or anarchist goes to about 63% and just town goes to about 54% using Bayes' Theorem. If they are expected to play like mafia, then his chance of being town drops to 50%. I legitimately don't know what a d1 anarchist is supposed to do as president and there's a good chance they don't either.

Not the greatest margin of information but it's important when people care claiming to send certain policy combos how that affects their spread. This is going to matter a lot if we go for a legislative victory, which is the best way to lock out the anarchists but risky if we roll poorly with legislation combos or presidents in the endgame.

I am definitely willing to vote out some people if they make bold enough claims about the legislation they're and scumreads tip the scales further. I would not advise nominating AP for chancellor but think everyone else is perfectly equal in consideration, especially given the possible recruit last night.

Going to bed. Also busy tomorrow. Will do my best to check in and keep up. If you want more math explanations I can deliver them.
 
Well I don't think that because I chose the first day polices
can you elaborate on this? not feeling well and blazade's post has sorta fried my brain so trying to understand why today would be different from ap saying what they're sending on yesterday
 
can you elaborate on this? not feeling well and blazade's post has sorta fried my brain so trying to understand why today would be different from ap saying what they're sending on yesterday
Well I was just answering Saber because we got the policy's yesterday and they are applied now since your president u gotta choose policy's plus chancellor
 
okay with des liking posts and not actually explaining herself

i got 1 liberal policies and 4 fascist ones. im sending forward one liberal policy and 3 fascist ones.

i am currently inclined to nominate blazade as chancellor, but i intend to keep my backup options private as unless i'm wrong this provides town with a stronger strategical advantage than if i share my backup options
 
i got 1 liberal policies and 4 fascist ones. im sending forward one liberal policy and 3 fascist ones.
if this is true, i think we'll see 1 liberal and 1 fascist policy enacted

hypothetically, if at least two liberal policies are sent to the chancellor, is there a reason for the chancellor not to enact two liberal policies if they are town?
 
okay with des liking posts and not actually explaining herself

i got 1 liberal policies and 4 fascist ones. im sending forward one liberal policy and 3 fascist ones.

i am currently inclined to nominate blazade as chancellor, but i intend to keep my backup options private as unless i'm wrong this provides town with a stronger strategical advantage than if i share my backup options
Sorry about that I just thought that um we didn't share policies because dbd said yesterday he would announce
 
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