So what, here we just nominate the new chancellor before DL? Then policies and vote before the next DL?
I ran some numbers last night on how likely each possible hand of liberal policies is and how that affects the conditional probability of AP being town.
5 liberal policies: .4%
4 liberal policies: 4%
3 liberal policies: 16%
2 liberal policies: 33%
1 liberal policy: 33%
0 liberal policies: 13%
Because I (or, similarly, you, the person reading this and applying this logic in good faith to themselves) am town, AP has a 6/9 chance of being town. If anarchists are expected to play day 1 like town does, then his chance of being town or anarchist goes to about 63% and just town goes to about 54% using Bayes' Theorem. If they are expected to play like mafia, then his chance of being town drops to 50%. I legitimately don't know what a d1 anarchist is supposed to do as president and there's a good chance they don't either.
Not the greatest margin of information but it's important when people care claiming to send certain policy combos how that affects their spread. This is going to matter a lot if we go for a legislative victory, which is the best way to lock out the anarchists but risky if we roll poorly with legislation combos or presidents in the endgame.
I am definitely willing to vote out some people if they make bold enough claims about the legislation they're and scumreads tip the scales further. I would not advise nominating AP for chancellor but think everyone else is perfectly equal in consideration, especially given the possible recruit last night.
Going to bed. Also busy tomorrow. Will do my best to check in and keep up. If you want more math explanations I can deliver them.