(1) Boston Celtics versus (5) Dallas Mavericks
"Everybody wants to win until it's really time to win. And then you have to nut up and do a lot of shit you don't want to do." Joe Muzulla
"This is their Super Bowl, this is a normal game for us." - Kyrie Irving on Minnesota
This series will be an excellent showcase of superstar talent versus depth. Dallas has two excellent shot-creators, play-finishers, and defenders. Boston has two versatile forwards, guards, and a center who can shoot and protect the rim in Porzingis. Boston is the better overall team, but Dallas has the best player. This type of finals matchup is the hardest to think about; especially when we add in the fact that Porzingis’ conditioning is a complete unknown.
X-factors: The biggest x-factor to me for both teams are Porzingis and Washington.
If Porzingis is healthy and knocking down threes, Boston has a significant offensive advantage that will win them the series. Boston’s offense is unlike any Dallas has come across. I would imagine it’s a combination of LA Clippers and Oklahoma City’s: excellent perimeter drivers and shooters, and two forwards who can target Luka/Kyrie on offense to wear them out. Dallas could afford to pack the paint and load up on one side when they were up against players like Zubac/Westbrook, Giddey, Gobert/Anderson. There was always one shooter to roam off. Lively and Gafford were always near the basket and fared well against those frontlines. The difference with Boston is that they force you to space out with Porzingis, and all Boston must do is drive and shoot in open space. Porzingis’ success is enough to force Dallas to change into a perimeter-focused defense rather than packing the paint or loading up one side. They may try to play a center off Holiday or Horford for a stretch, but can you bank on them missing compared to the other players for a 7-game series? Outside of Porzingis’ unknown condition, it’s hard to bet against that defensively.
This is where PJ Washington comes in. He will likely be guarded by Porzingis. Other than White, Porzingis is the only other starter Luka would want to attack, so it’s better to have him on Washington/Jones so when Luka screens and is blitzed, it’s a PJ Washington above the break three (significantly worse than his corner threes) or a Derrick Jones three. Washington could get hot again, but don’t forget Boston is one of the best 3-point defensive teams. Washington needs to score and establish himself as the third best player and scorer especially if Boston gets contribution from Porzingis or any surprise role player.
Kleber will likely get more minutes this series out of Gafford. If he can have a big series, it’ll make the frontline matchup that much more interesting. However, in a five-out versus five-out match-up, I favor Boston only because that has been their identity all year. Boston is vulnerable through their bigs, so if Porzingis is in foul trouble or just ineffective to some capacity, that opens the door for Dallas.
The stars: How do Luka/Kyrie compared to Tatum/Brown?
Luka should be comfortable. Brown is the only guy who may be able to have a chance of bothering Luka, so he’s likely to hunt for White/Holiday/Horford/Porzingis or even Tatum to drag him out to the perimeter and limit their size in the paint. He’s Boston’s biggest disadvantage the way I see it. Kyrie on the other hand will have a tougher time if Holiday’s on him, but he is playing against Boston in the finals. Both Luka and Kyrie will be forced to work on defense more than they ever have in the playoffs, and that will certainly take a toll more on those two than Tatum and Brown who don’t have the same pressure offensively.
For Tatum and Brown, whoever Jones isn’t guarding should be comfortable. Washington/Jones ain’t a bad duo to guard those guys, but in space? That remains to be seen. The chances of Washington and Jones doing what Draymond and Wiggins essentially did might be a lot to ask, but it’s certainly necessary for Dallas to win the series.
3-point shooting: Three-point shooting has decided the grand majority of wins this playoff, and Boston is the better team by volume and percentage. Dallas doesn’t have as many talented shooters, so if it’s a shootout, Boston will win. How Kleber/Washington/Lively hold up in a spaced-out environment with long rebounds will determine Dallas’ effectiveness in clamping down on Boston’s shooters. That isn’t the only problem when discussing this though Dallas is not particularly ranked too highly in that area. If Boston clamps down on Dallas’ shooters (and they are a better perimeter defensive team), Dallas will be forced to try to beat them through 2’s. You can do that against a below average offense in Minnesota, but not against a team with 8 guys nearly shooting near 40%.
My pick is Boston, and it’s not that I don’t see this series as close. I just have more questions for Dallas than I do Boston. Boston must have very little go through for them just to have consistent offense. Dallas is the team I expect who will have to adjust more in comparison. The 3-point shooting combined with Porzingis’ pick-and-pop ability will test Dallas in space, and I don’t think their personnel on the perimeter is fit to stop hot perimeter shooting of Boston.
Boston wins if: Porzingis is healthy and spacing the floor. Luka/Kyrie are fatigued after finally working on defense. Dallas’ role players can’t keep up with the hot shooting Boston. Boston manages to find a great defensive combination of keeping Brown on Luka as long as possible and loading up against him off of Washington/Jones.
Dallas wins if: Porzingis is a bust and can’t stay on the floor due to Luka targeting. Luka picks on Boston’s defenders like shooting fish in a barrel. Kyrie is comfortable against most Boston defenders including Holiday. Washington and Jones make shots. Lively and Kleber are excellent in space and manage to be the superior frontline.
Boston in six.