Now that i think about it better, it really depends on what item Starmie holds, and if he leads or not. So let's see the cases, shall we?
- Case 1: Starmie leads, and holds Lefties. In this case Thunder is better, as it ohkoes 70% of the time instead of 12.5% of the time that Tbolt does, and 2hkoes 91% of the time (chance of at least one Thunder hitting in two attempts) instead of 100% time, that Tbolt does. I think that the wayyy greater chance to OHKO is more important that the greater chance to 2hko.
- Case 2: Starmie leads, and holds LO. In this case Tbolt is undeniably better. After 1 LO recoil, which Starmie will have as it is going to attack you, it will have a greater chance than Thunder has, to OHKO Starmie (don't know the percentage).
- Case 3: Starmie comes in on the second turn and holds Lefties. Here we have 2 subcategories:
There is always the option to go for the Thunder/Tbolt as Starmie comes in, for cases 3 and 4, but usually you are better of setting up hazards, and then smacking Starmie.
So it really depends on which item is more popular. I feel like both items see a lot of use, and i believe that both moves should be listed on the 3rd slot, in whatever order.
- Case 1: Starmie leads, and holds Lefties. In this case Thunder is better, as it ohkoes 70% of the time instead of 12.5% of the time that Tbolt does, and 2hkoes 91% of the time (chance of at least one Thunder hitting in two attempts) instead of 100% time, that Tbolt does. I think that the wayyy greater chance to OHKO is more important that the greater chance to 2hko.
- Case 2: Starmie leads, and holds LO. In this case Tbolt is undeniably better. After 1 LO recoil, which Starmie will have as it is going to attack you, it will have a greater chance than Thunder has, to OHKO Starmie (don't know the percentage).
- Case 3: Starmie comes in on the second turn and holds Lefties. Here we have 2 subcategories:
- Starmie attacks, in which case, we go to Case 1, in which, imo, Thunder is better
- Starmie uses Rapid Spin, in which case Thunder is again better for similar reasons, imo
There is always the option to go for the Thunder/Tbolt as Starmie comes in, for cases 3 and 4, but usually you are better of setting up hazards, and then smacking Starmie.
So it really depends on which item is more popular. I feel like both items see a lot of use, and i believe that both moves should be listed on the 3rd slot, in whatever order.