Thoughts about Wemby out for the season i think its looking a bit like a MJ esque career
-
Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
-
Congrats to the winners of the 2024 Smog Awards!
Sports NBA Thread: 2024-2025 Season
- Thread starter awyp
- Start date
As long as they rule out that this is like (not genetics related like Chris Bosh) I think he'll have a long career to enable him to be the greatest player of all time. DVTs are serious but as long as its not reoccurring he'll be fine.
---
Since I don't want to one-liner and now that I'm officially a Lakers fan. Holy shit man like they don't know how to play Luka (Luka should not play off ball at this point of his career, he's just not good at it brother just fucking stands). Luka also needs to take basketball serious, bro went on vacation during the all star break..like give me a break you just got traded because you're out of shape and you don't mind to grind like Kobe and work on your game?
cavs vs celtics game was amazing, can't wait for a full series of these two. as a celtics fan im stressing bc i think we will definitely be favored against cleveland and beat them but having to go through a war just to hit okc in the finals is brutal. having to root for lakers bc them and denver are the only two teams that i can imagine slowing them down lmao
game tonight was so good tho, tatum first half was one of the best halves of basketball i've ever seen. brown and donovan were amazing in 2nd half. obvs they won anyways but i think atkinson really threw by going all wings when mobley subbed out in the fourth, the biggest reason cleveland got control was bc of (obvs donovan) but also mobley completely controlling the glass on offense. i get that he needed a breather but why not sub allen in to spot minutes, cavs wings outside of hunter are just not good and i really dont get why he went with that rotation. gg tho it was just some amazingly high level basketball and im so so excited to see this in ECF.
game tonight was so good tho, tatum first half was one of the best halves of basketball i've ever seen. brown and donovan were amazing in 2nd half. obvs they won anyways but i think atkinson really threw by going all wings when mobley subbed out in the fourth, the biggest reason cleveland got control was bc of (obvs donovan) but also mobley completely controlling the glass on offense. i get that he needed a breather but why not sub allen in to spot minutes, cavs wings outside of hunter are just not good and i really dont get why he went with that rotation. gg tho it was just some amazingly high level basketball and im so so excited to see this in ECF.
As a Jazz fan I really don’t have a ton of faith in Cleveland for the post season, considering how things went down with our team that had a #1 record a few years ago led by Donovan Mitchell. I would love to be proved wrong though and do wish success for Donny, I just have my doubts about Cleveland winning the east.
the only reason i think cleveland might be favored to reach the ecf is because i think the east is embarassingly weak right now
i will update my perception and categorize cleveland as 'true contender' when they beat boston in the postseason; win the east; or beat another true contender (i currently don't see one in the east), whichever comes first
i will update my perception and categorize cleveland as 'true contender' when they beat boston in the postseason; win the east; or beat another true contender (i currently don't see one in the east), whichever comes first
At least yall got a top teir color scheme jersey wise in the league (hell made me love the 90s Hornets as a young one lol) - teasing
As a Knicks fan (i was gunna jump cus Dolan forever, if he starts his shit again i'm out lol) felt the same forever and we're still not totally out that energy, but the time will change eventually.
I already decided if it ain't the Knicks it'll be either Spurs or Magic if Dolan starts getting nosey again the 2000s-now been a waste i'm not wasting anymore time lol.
Our branding is literally so elite. If we just had a 1 or 2 conference finals we would have so many bandwagons. But college basketball will continue to dominate in the state. I feel like the team was missing a higher bracket veteran this year (Tobias Harris, Westbrook), I seriously thought at the beginning of the year a play-in was a given. I mean on paper our team is way better than the flippin Wizards but we're only 2 games ahead of them, and losing to them 4 times!!! (injuries but still)
Last edited:
wont lie as a lil kid i had a charlotte hornets sweatpants/shirt combo i took super pride in to the point the paints ripped in the crotch once in gym and i loved the fit i just walked closed legged rest of the day lol.
i do kinda relate tho cus i never grew up with great knicks teams cus even the ewing days i was super young and it was always "LOL Dolan" and it got to the point where i'll be listening to Punk albums not even thinking sports and they'll be skits saying "ONLY THING NEW YORKERS AGREE ON IS HOW MUCH THE KNICKS SUCK! *breakdown*" lmaoooooo --- granted we're a "legacy" franchise since we've been around forever, we've hardly the success to show for it.
AD's back. Naji Marshall's glorious run is over I think. I find it really funny that him and quentin grimes just turned it up to an 11 out of nowhere.
Only about 3 weeks left in the season. Here's the conference finals prediction.
West: Thunder, Warriors
East: Cavaliers, Celtics
The Nuggets have lost my trust. I just think the Warriors are on course to destroy everything in their sight. I wasn't really a Celtics believer until now.
(Edit: Naji had 22 on great efficiency nvm lol)
Only about 3 weeks left in the season. Here's the conference finals prediction.
West: Thunder, Warriors
East: Cavaliers, Celtics
The Nuggets have lost my trust. I just think the Warriors are on course to destroy everything in their sight. I wasn't really a Celtics believer until now.
(Edit: Naji had 22 on great efficiency nvm lol)
Last edited:
Shoutout me who for like the month after the all star break who was hyping up Denver to all my friends, about how they were looking like they could make a championship run
The season is winding down, so why not try predicting today's slate of super important games for that bumblefuck within the western conference standings:
Lakers vs Mavericks AD is here and so is Luka. I'm definitely pirating this one. Final Score 115-102
Nuggets vs Kings Surprisingly the return of Luka doesn't completely overshadow every other matchup. I think Denver will have a fire under their ass and beat the hot Kings. I can see a high scoring game. Final Score 132-127
Warriors vs Spurs My conference finals pick isn't scared of Stephon Castle. Final Score 106-93
Rockets vs. Clippers Betting odds have the Clippers, and while I love the Clippers, the Rockets have won every previous matchup this year and has just beat two extremely legit teams in GS and OKC. Final Score 112-105
Heat vs. Bulls Am I crazy to think one of these joke teams could upset Cleveland? Final Score 116-107
Lakers vs Mavericks AD is here and so is Luka. I'm definitely pirating this one. Final Score 115-102
Nuggets vs Kings Surprisingly the return of Luka doesn't completely overshadow every other matchup. I think Denver will have a fire under their ass and beat the hot Kings. I can see a high scoring game. Final Score 132-127
Warriors vs Spurs My conference finals pick isn't scared of Stephon Castle. Final Score 106-93
Rockets vs. Clippers Betting odds have the Clippers, and while I love the Clippers, the Rockets have won every previous matchup this year and has just beat two extremely legit teams in GS and OKC. Final Score 112-105
Heat vs. Bulls Am I crazy to think one of these joke teams could upset Cleveland? Final Score 116-107
I've been waiting for Lukas first game back to the Mavericks, and all I can say is it got me a bit emotional. He obviously saw himself retiring as a Mav, and the business side had to ruin it (Nico Harrison). One of Lukas best performances of the season. It was very awkward hearing the Fire Nico chants in coordination to every time Luka got the ball the crowd went crazy.
----
I dont understand the Mike Malone firing at all, this deep into the season when they have Championship contention possibly. One of the most bizarre things; I feel like bro had to have like fucked a co-worker like Udoka because the shit doesnt make sense.
I like Detroit Pistons, LA Clippers and Warriors as underdogs going into the playoff.
My guess for some awards: SGA is MVP, Draymond is Defensive Player of the year (lol), Cade is MIP
----
I dont understand the Mike Malone firing at all, this deep into the season when they have Championship contention possibly. One of the most bizarre things; I feel like bro had to have like fucked a co-worker like Udoka because the shit doesnt make sense.
I like Detroit Pistons, LA Clippers and Warriors as underdogs going into the playoff.
My guess for some awards: SGA is MVP, Draymond is Defensive Player of the year (lol), Cade is MIP
Cade, USAID, I'm never getting laid, Lakers in 5
We're happy for you man. Making the playoffs is a massive accomplishment, especially after a season where they lost 28 games in a row
Welp the warriors are selling. Watch them lose today somehow. Maybe its a blessing in disguise since they get to face the rockets instead of the nuggets or Lakers? Excited for the inevitable Derrick Rose playoff post.
Hawks vs. Magic The Hawks have been overwhelmingly average every year. Final Score 124-117
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Home court makes the difference here. I'ma say Jimmy Butler over 23 points. Final Score 113-112
Heat vs. Bulls Coby is all-nba caliber. Next Jordan? Final Score 119-112
Mavericks vs. Kings 10 seeds rarely win in the play-in. The vibes are non-existent in Dallas. No upsets tomorrow or wednesday. Final Score 102-91
Hawks vs. Magic The Hawks have been overwhelmingly average every year. Final Score 124-117
Grizzlies vs. Warriors Home court makes the difference here. I'ma say Jimmy Butler over 23 points. Final Score 113-112
Heat vs. Bulls Coby is all-nba caliber. Next Jordan? Final Score 119-112
Mavericks vs. Kings 10 seeds rarely win in the play-in. The vibes are non-existent in Dallas. No upsets tomorrow or wednesday. Final Score 102-91
(4) Denver Nuggets versus (5) Los Angeles Clippers
“They’ll say coach is tripping” – Mike Malone after loss to Portland.
“No… I don’t feel no way about stepping on anybody toes. It’s not like we’re the no. 1 seed or something.” – Kawhi Leonard on returning healthy.
I will start off with the series of two teams going in opposite directions. Denver fired their most winningest coach in history three games before the playoffs. They had an impressive showing in the final regular season game against Houston’s starters, but their overall stats since the All-Star break trend down. Meanwhile, Kawhi returns to LA peaking in a way we haven’t seen before. Kawhi is actually playing defense like he’s in San Antonio as I thought I was watching them play Golden State in the regular season finale.
So, how does this rematch from 2020 look like 5 years later? I’ll be honest: it looks dire for Denver. The pathway I see to them winning this series is on the backs of a super Jokic/Murray series.
Gordon is one of the better defenders you could have for Kawhi. He is a godsend for Denver this series. He has both the height and weight to at least make Kawhi work. Outside of him, Denver has nobody else. The worst part is, Denver loses their backline defender by having Gordon guarding Kawhi at the three-point line. So that takes away Denver’s rebounding and rim protection when they’re already a below average defense for the season. Any foul trouble for Gordon spells trouble.
Same for Murray. Denver lacks more depth than they’ve ever had since the rematch. Murray will see a ton of lengthy defenders like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. When Murray scores 20+, Denver is 24-11. Jokic has already had heartbreaking losses despite his contributions; the true key for Denver is Murray’s effectiveness, and you can bet Lue will target Murray like he did in 2020.
Denver’s defense was meddling once again, and while they took that meddling 2023 defense and won a championship through the playoffs with great defensive spurts, I’m not sure if they have it in them this time. Jokic is older and still has issues defending in space. He’ll be barbeque chicken for Harden’s pick-and-roll coverage with Zubac. So even if Kawhi goes through his 3rd consecutive season of being injured in the first round, LA still has ways to exploit Denver’s poor pick-and-roll defense.
Zubac is the perfect defender for Jokic if you had to create a player. Size and strength force Jokic into a perimeter-oriented style of play, and that’s not to say Jokic has a weakness in his game; but last year’s Minnesota series proved that forcing Jokic to score mostly by threes is your best chance at defending Denver. The numbers bear that out in the regular season series for the past two years: Jokic averages 48% and attempts an average of 7 threes against LA which are respectively his lowest and highest averages. Jokic struggles against this team.
It is hard to see a pathway for Denver with all things said. Historically, I’ve never felt this good about LA. Kawhi has a bad injury history, Harden has a choke history, and the Clippers are a cursed franchise. But then they let the most overpaid aging small forward walk with no consequences. They did something right this year.
Denver wins if: Jokic shares his steroids with Murray, and they offensively dominate LA. Denver’s supporting cast contribute in the Jokic-less minutes. Aaron Gordon does a defense masterclass and Jokic is 50% from 3 on ten attempts.
Los Angeles wins if: Jokic becomes barbeque chicken on defense. Murray sees length and athleticism. The depth of LA is overwhelming and Kawhi is simply Kawhi.
Los Angeles Clippers in six.
(3) New York Knicks versus (6) Detroit Pistons
“I think I can be the best basketball player I the world.” – Cade Cunningham
“Second half, Jalen Brunson kept saying, ‘I want Dick. I’ll take Dick’.” – Josh Hart
New York is limping into the playoffs which is not unlike a Tom Thibodeau team. Vegas gives Detroit more of a shot because New York simply hasn’t looked like a contender all year and even less so during the last half of the season. New York went 15-13 after the All-Star break and posted a net rating of 0.3. Detroit during that same period went 15-12 with 4.9 net rating. New York’s decline in efficiency over the course of the season has concentrated on the offensive end, so that end of the floor is key.
Brunson’s been absent for some games in the second half which can explain the decline in efficiency, but it details how important it is for New York to generate offense because their defense is very comparable to Detroit’s. Their offense is what got them here.
New York’s offense starts and ends with Brunson and KAT. How well can Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart guard KAT out in space? New York is going to need KAT’s spacing as I don’t trust him to be successful in the paint outside of any switches onto him. We can also expect Thompson to be on Brunson most of the time. Length and athleticism do bother Brunson from time to time, but he did have relative success in the season series. He also managed to overcome it last year against Philadelphia, and that was without KAT’s spacing.
New York’s perimeter guys have a lot of scoring punch too individually when their number is called. Bridges has a history of at least attempting to be a franchise player. OG Anunoby is a strong, athletic cover for most players, and Josh Hart is a box of chocolates. This helps improves New York’s chances in my eyes despite their disappointing play because while Detroit has decent initial defensive answers to their two primary scorers, New York’s offense has also succeeded because of their versatile forwards. Through the first 30 games, New York shot 39.6% from three and had a 20-10 record, but that record gets dismal when you dip below 37%. The three-point shooting outside of KAT will decide New York’s fate. Detroit went 3-1 in the regular season series behind Cade’s 31/5/8 average. Beasley, the primary barometer for whether Detroit wins or not, went 15/27 for the season in threes. Hardaway Jr. and Harris round out the roster with veteran mentorship while Thompson has remained a young defensive stud like his brother.
Ultimately, Detroit’s supporting cast is going to have to make plays and knock down shots consistently. No one is worried about Cunningham on the Madison Square Garden big stage but expect Thibideau to load up on him and dare the supporting cast to beat New York. How you feel about either supporting cast’s team ability to defend and score is likely where you lean in the series. New York is the safe pick with their experience, having a potential to return to their early season offensive numbers, and home court. Detroit is the upset if you believe in their youth movement and late season success more.
New York wins if: Somebody on this team is making threes most nights be it KAT, Brunson, or one of the role guys. New York’s overall offense can find its rhythm amongst the rising youthful defense of Detroit.
Detroit wins if: Cade pulls a Trae Young and finds all his shooters when he’s trapped. Especially Beasley. KAT does KAT things like get in foul trouble and fail to post up on tough matchups. Brunson doesn’t look like himself and New York’s offense falls through a crater because of Thibodeau’s lack of offensive innovation once again.
New York Knicks in six.
(4) Indiana Pacers versus (5) Milwaukee Bucks
“I’ve never come up short, in my opinion. Come up short? What does that mean?” – Doc Rivers on coaching career.
“If I go back and suit up, I wanna go fuck up Tyrese Haliburton… He talks so much shit. I wanna go back and bust his motherfucking ass. He think he all that.” – Tim Hardaway Sr.
I’ve gone back and forth with this series multiple times. I’ll proceed with the expectation that Lillard does not play in Round 1.
This is a rematch of last year, and Indiana’s roster is largely unchanged since then. They’ve dipped in offense but made slight improvement in defense for the year. One could argue that they’re superior to last year’s team. With Milwaukee missing their next best offensive cog in Lillard, most find it difficult to take Milwaukee at all.
Giannis did not play in last year’s series. Factoring him in this incredibly important, and I think those favoring Indiana forgot just how good playoff Giannis could potentially be after missing about two full years. Giannis has been steadily improving in front of our eyes since Lillard entered the picture and looking at Giannis’ stats since Lillard exited the line-up: 31.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. He’s essentially found his LeBron-spirit and became much more involved as a decision-maker and passer. Milwaukee is the number one three-point shooting team in percentage, and when you have one of the best rebounders, passers, and scorers in the league combined with #1 three-point shooting, it’s tough for me to pick Indiana.
Indiana’s defense will need to be incredible to put a stop to the player who’s been dominating them the past few years. Miles Turner and Brook Lopez like last year are also interesting swing factors: who’s making threes and providing their team’s best scorer and passer space to operate?
Haliburton’s great, Siakam’s fantastic, and Indiana has done well to improve this season. They still can win this series, but poor team rebounding and the inability to contain Giannis doesn’t speak well for them.
Indiana Pacers win if: They manage to contain Giannis and keep the pace of the game fast. Turner is shooting well allowing Haliburton space to operate. Indiana’s youth movement prove to be a defensive masterclass.
Milwaukee Bucks win if: Giannis does his best LeBron impression. Milwaukee is hot from three, especially Lopez. Milwaukee wins the battle of the glass and nullifies Indiana’s fast pace with Giannis’ control.
Milwaukee Bucks in six.
(3) Los Angeles Lakers versus (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
“I’m going to a dark place. In my basement, I’m turning off all the lights and rewatching film. That’s my therapy.” – JJ Redick.
“This might have been the best game of my life that I’ve been a part of. Nikola Jokic, bruh. My God. He might be the best basketball player I’ve ever seen close-up, besides myself to myself. – Anthony Edwards
One of the few series I feel comfortable taking one team over another. I have a strong belief that Los Angeles will advance.
Minesota had one of the most catastrophic offensive collapses in the fourth quarter against Milwaukee I ever saw in my life. My eyes are still burning from the experience. They allowed Milwaukee to go on a 39-8 run in the 4th quarter after leading by 24. They went scoreless for a full five minutes with Edwards on the floor. If you think that’s bad enough, here’s an overview of their clutch minutes stats: 29.5% from three, 41.4% FG, and have a net rating for playoff teams. They’ve shown in the past few seasons that decision-making is a steady weak point.
That simply won’t cut it against the IQ combination of Luka, LeBron, Austin, and Redick. That’s plenty of IQ offensively for a team, and if you have bad clutch stats, you’re already up the river without a paddle. We don’t have much regular season data between the current versions of the teams, but I’ll be shocked if Minnesota outdoes a team with clutch playmakers. That’s primarily why Los Angeles will win this series. Outside of Edwards who is still an improving decision-maker, Conley is the only other playmaker on this team.
Who can Conley guard on this roster?! He’s small, old, and yet Minnesota desperately needs him to avoid the offense cratering from lack of playmaking. He won’t be able to be effective constantly hunted on offense. Los Angeles lacks center depth, but they are huge elsewhere. Randle is an interesting x-factor if you ignore his playoff history. He does have the ability to create advantages outside of Edwards. Randle’s comfort offensively would be a pleasant surprise advantage for Minnesota.
Then there’s Gobert, who is forever discussed when there’s any match-up involve five-out small ball. How will Gobert fair this time? Depends on how well Finney-Smith and Hachimura can light it up, which they certainly can. The more important thing to note is that five-out puts Gobert in a tough position. If he’s away from the rim, then it’s open season for Los Angeles’ guards in the paint. If he’s giving space to the shooters, then it’s open season from the perimeter. I’m not sure how Finch will incorporate Gobert in this series, but he needs to find a way to make his defensive strengths stand out, because they can’t if he can’t camp in the paint.
It's simply hard to find many advantages for Minnesota other than their length and physicality. They are certainly built for the playoffs and if Los Angeles shrinks under physicality, then everything I’m saying obviously doesn’t matter; but Luka and LeBron aren’t the type to shrink in that environment in history’s past.
Los Angeles wins if: They have better playmaking over the course of the series. Redick produces a scheme that forces Edward to think in the air more often than not. Conley gets ran off the floor, Gobert is ineffective, and Minnesota’s clutch minutes are ass.
Minnesota wins if: Physicality was the way. Finch just switches everything and dares LeBron and Luka to shoot over the top of length. Edwards is a playmaking savant.
Los Angeles in five.
(2) Houston Rockets versus (7) Golden State Warriors
“I appreciate you getting me my first win in this motherfucker.” – Dillon Brooks to Green in Boston
He made a reservation to International Smoke and canceled it. I was upset with him” – Stephen Curry on Ime Udoka
“I’m sorry I’m giving you all the lowest energy ever. I’m exhausted. I sound like Klay Thompson up here. – Draymond
“Styles make fights” is an old boxing adage that describes this classic matchup. These teams couldn’t be further apart in their makeup. Houston’s roster is filled with historic bruisers like Dillon Brooks, Curry’s old nemesis Fred VanVleet from 2019 Finals, and even the 2022 Finals opposing coach Ime Udoka who is familiar with schemes to frustrate Curry on offense. Amen Thompson is the most impressive defender we’ve seen in modern times and the overall the combination of athleticism, size, and physicality has given them a rebounding advantage that exceeds conventional wisdom. They earned their 2-seed by dominating in the margins through possession battles. Turnovers, offensive boards, and tough switching defense.
Golden State is the opposite. They’re smaller, older, and have spent more time throughout the season figuring things out. They rank fourth in assists per game, so they’re all about constant movement, cutting, and making open shots off of flow. So, when I say styles make fights, I feel we’re in for what feels like Sacramento versus Golden State 2023.
To begin, Houston’s halfcourt offensive ranking of 22nd brings me concern. Yes, they can rebound better than anyone, and they may even have the ability to defend Curry as he’s shot 36% against Houston in five games this season, but the central question to this series to me on Houston’s end is who is going to score consistent four out of seven times against this team?
Houston is 13-1 when Jalen Green scores 30+. Jalen is an incredibly high variance player, but his scoring is a major barometer for this team. Draymond is a strong post defender despite his lack of size, and Sengun’s been inconsistent against him in the regular season only scoring 0.6 per possession in post-ups. I don’t believe he’s going give Houston the points they need with his first time in the playoffs. Dillon Brooks is their best three-point shooter. Brooks has improved his offense overall, but can he honestly shoot 40% in a series?
Golden State have their own loads of match-up issues with this team. They’ll likely be killed on the glass evident of their two play-in games (Golden State is 16-17 when outrebounded), Curry will be flustered most likely among the physicality and size, and their supporting cast’s efficiency outside of Curry typically decides whether Golden State prevails. This series will be about Butler. He must score, and he will do this by targeting Jalen Green. Butler needs to find a way to release the pressure from Curry and allow the supporting cast to fill in the blanks.
We also know Golden State sometimes excessively turn the ball over; a crucial factor for this matchup that will decide the pace. Like with Sacramento last year, ball security is everything as Houston feeds off lost possessions and fastbreak points.
This will be a long, grueling series and will likely go to seven. I lean Golden State mostly because I have more faith in their halfcourt offense than Houston’s. Houston’s star offensive players are new to the playoffs.
Houston wins if: Jalen Green and Sengun are comfortable offensively. Golden State turned the ball over too many times. Houston’s rebounds and fastbreaks overwhelm them. Curry can’t get free. Butler isn’t enough and Golden State’s supporting cast shrunk under physicality and size.
Golden State wins if: Butler finds ways to carry the team on his back. Curry either scores fine against Houston or they get great things out of trapping him. The supporting cast hit their open shots, and they rebound better than expected. Houston’s offense is too inefficient for their possession ratio to matter.
Golden State in seven.
“They’ll say coach is tripping” – Mike Malone after loss to Portland.
“No… I don’t feel no way about stepping on anybody toes. It’s not like we’re the no. 1 seed or something.” – Kawhi Leonard on returning healthy.
I will start off with the series of two teams going in opposite directions. Denver fired their most winningest coach in history three games before the playoffs. They had an impressive showing in the final regular season game against Houston’s starters, but their overall stats since the All-Star break trend down. Meanwhile, Kawhi returns to LA peaking in a way we haven’t seen before. Kawhi is actually playing defense like he’s in San Antonio as I thought I was watching them play Golden State in the regular season finale.
So, how does this rematch from 2020 look like 5 years later? I’ll be honest: it looks dire for Denver. The pathway I see to them winning this series is on the backs of a super Jokic/Murray series.
Gordon is one of the better defenders you could have for Kawhi. He is a godsend for Denver this series. He has both the height and weight to at least make Kawhi work. Outside of him, Denver has nobody else. The worst part is, Denver loses their backline defender by having Gordon guarding Kawhi at the three-point line. So that takes away Denver’s rebounding and rim protection when they’re already a below average defense for the season. Any foul trouble for Gordon spells trouble.
Same for Murray. Denver lacks more depth than they’ve ever had since the rematch. Murray will see a ton of lengthy defenders like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. When Murray scores 20+, Denver is 24-11. Jokic has already had heartbreaking losses despite his contributions; the true key for Denver is Murray’s effectiveness, and you can bet Lue will target Murray like he did in 2020.
Denver’s defense was meddling once again, and while they took that meddling 2023 defense and won a championship through the playoffs with great defensive spurts, I’m not sure if they have it in them this time. Jokic is older and still has issues defending in space. He’ll be barbeque chicken for Harden’s pick-and-roll coverage with Zubac. So even if Kawhi goes through his 3rd consecutive season of being injured in the first round, LA still has ways to exploit Denver’s poor pick-and-roll defense.
Zubac is the perfect defender for Jokic if you had to create a player. Size and strength force Jokic into a perimeter-oriented style of play, and that’s not to say Jokic has a weakness in his game; but last year’s Minnesota series proved that forcing Jokic to score mostly by threes is your best chance at defending Denver. The numbers bear that out in the regular season series for the past two years: Jokic averages 48% and attempts an average of 7 threes against LA which are respectively his lowest and highest averages. Jokic struggles against this team.
It is hard to see a pathway for Denver with all things said. Historically, I’ve never felt this good about LA. Kawhi has a bad injury history, Harden has a choke history, and the Clippers are a cursed franchise. But then they let the most overpaid aging small forward walk with no consequences. They did something right this year.
Denver wins if: Jokic shares his steroids with Murray, and they offensively dominate LA. Denver’s supporting cast contribute in the Jokic-less minutes. Aaron Gordon does a defense masterclass and Jokic is 50% from 3 on ten attempts.
Los Angeles wins if: Jokic becomes barbeque chicken on defense. Murray sees length and athleticism. The depth of LA is overwhelming and Kawhi is simply Kawhi.
Los Angeles Clippers in six.
(3) New York Knicks versus (6) Detroit Pistons
“I think I can be the best basketball player I the world.” – Cade Cunningham
“Second half, Jalen Brunson kept saying, ‘I want Dick. I’ll take Dick’.” – Josh Hart
New York is limping into the playoffs which is not unlike a Tom Thibodeau team. Vegas gives Detroit more of a shot because New York simply hasn’t looked like a contender all year and even less so during the last half of the season. New York went 15-13 after the All-Star break and posted a net rating of 0.3. Detroit during that same period went 15-12 with 4.9 net rating. New York’s decline in efficiency over the course of the season has concentrated on the offensive end, so that end of the floor is key.
Brunson’s been absent for some games in the second half which can explain the decline in efficiency, but it details how important it is for New York to generate offense because their defense is very comparable to Detroit’s. Their offense is what got them here.
New York’s offense starts and ends with Brunson and KAT. How well can Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart guard KAT out in space? New York is going to need KAT’s spacing as I don’t trust him to be successful in the paint outside of any switches onto him. We can also expect Thompson to be on Brunson most of the time. Length and athleticism do bother Brunson from time to time, but he did have relative success in the season series. He also managed to overcome it last year against Philadelphia, and that was without KAT’s spacing.
New York’s perimeter guys have a lot of scoring punch too individually when their number is called. Bridges has a history of at least attempting to be a franchise player. OG Anunoby is a strong, athletic cover for most players, and Josh Hart is a box of chocolates. This helps improves New York’s chances in my eyes despite their disappointing play because while Detroit has decent initial defensive answers to their two primary scorers, New York’s offense has also succeeded because of their versatile forwards. Through the first 30 games, New York shot 39.6% from three and had a 20-10 record, but that record gets dismal when you dip below 37%. The three-point shooting outside of KAT will decide New York’s fate. Detroit went 3-1 in the regular season series behind Cade’s 31/5/8 average. Beasley, the primary barometer for whether Detroit wins or not, went 15/27 for the season in threes. Hardaway Jr. and Harris round out the roster with veteran mentorship while Thompson has remained a young defensive stud like his brother.
Ultimately, Detroit’s supporting cast is going to have to make plays and knock down shots consistently. No one is worried about Cunningham on the Madison Square Garden big stage but expect Thibideau to load up on him and dare the supporting cast to beat New York. How you feel about either supporting cast’s team ability to defend and score is likely where you lean in the series. New York is the safe pick with their experience, having a potential to return to their early season offensive numbers, and home court. Detroit is the upset if you believe in their youth movement and late season success more.
New York wins if: Somebody on this team is making threes most nights be it KAT, Brunson, or one of the role guys. New York’s overall offense can find its rhythm amongst the rising youthful defense of Detroit.
Detroit wins if: Cade pulls a Trae Young and finds all his shooters when he’s trapped. Especially Beasley. KAT does KAT things like get in foul trouble and fail to post up on tough matchups. Brunson doesn’t look like himself and New York’s offense falls through a crater because of Thibodeau’s lack of offensive innovation once again.
New York Knicks in six.
(4) Indiana Pacers versus (5) Milwaukee Bucks
“I’ve never come up short, in my opinion. Come up short? What does that mean?” – Doc Rivers on coaching career.
“If I go back and suit up, I wanna go fuck up Tyrese Haliburton… He talks so much shit. I wanna go back and bust his motherfucking ass. He think he all that.” – Tim Hardaway Sr.
I’ve gone back and forth with this series multiple times. I’ll proceed with the expectation that Lillard does not play in Round 1.
This is a rematch of last year, and Indiana’s roster is largely unchanged since then. They’ve dipped in offense but made slight improvement in defense for the year. One could argue that they’re superior to last year’s team. With Milwaukee missing their next best offensive cog in Lillard, most find it difficult to take Milwaukee at all.
Giannis did not play in last year’s series. Factoring him in this incredibly important, and I think those favoring Indiana forgot just how good playoff Giannis could potentially be after missing about two full years. Giannis has been steadily improving in front of our eyes since Lillard entered the picture and looking at Giannis’ stats since Lillard exited the line-up: 31.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists. He’s essentially found his LeBron-spirit and became much more involved as a decision-maker and passer. Milwaukee is the number one three-point shooting team in percentage, and when you have one of the best rebounders, passers, and scorers in the league combined with #1 three-point shooting, it’s tough for me to pick Indiana.
Indiana’s defense will need to be incredible to put a stop to the player who’s been dominating them the past few years. Miles Turner and Brook Lopez like last year are also interesting swing factors: who’s making threes and providing their team’s best scorer and passer space to operate?
Haliburton’s great, Siakam’s fantastic, and Indiana has done well to improve this season. They still can win this series, but poor team rebounding and the inability to contain Giannis doesn’t speak well for them.
Indiana Pacers win if: They manage to contain Giannis and keep the pace of the game fast. Turner is shooting well allowing Haliburton space to operate. Indiana’s youth movement prove to be a defensive masterclass.
Milwaukee Bucks win if: Giannis does his best LeBron impression. Milwaukee is hot from three, especially Lopez. Milwaukee wins the battle of the glass and nullifies Indiana’s fast pace with Giannis’ control.
Milwaukee Bucks in six.
(3) Los Angeles Lakers versus (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
“I’m going to a dark place. In my basement, I’m turning off all the lights and rewatching film. That’s my therapy.” – JJ Redick.
“This might have been the best game of my life that I’ve been a part of. Nikola Jokic, bruh. My God. He might be the best basketball player I’ve ever seen close-up, besides myself to myself. – Anthony Edwards
One of the few series I feel comfortable taking one team over another. I have a strong belief that Los Angeles will advance.
Minesota had one of the most catastrophic offensive collapses in the fourth quarter against Milwaukee I ever saw in my life. My eyes are still burning from the experience. They allowed Milwaukee to go on a 39-8 run in the 4th quarter after leading by 24. They went scoreless for a full five minutes with Edwards on the floor. If you think that’s bad enough, here’s an overview of their clutch minutes stats: 29.5% from three, 41.4% FG, and have a net rating for playoff teams. They’ve shown in the past few seasons that decision-making is a steady weak point.
That simply won’t cut it against the IQ combination of Luka, LeBron, Austin, and Redick. That’s plenty of IQ offensively for a team, and if you have bad clutch stats, you’re already up the river without a paddle. We don’t have much regular season data between the current versions of the teams, but I’ll be shocked if Minnesota outdoes a team with clutch playmakers. That’s primarily why Los Angeles will win this series. Outside of Edwards who is still an improving decision-maker, Conley is the only other playmaker on this team.
Who can Conley guard on this roster?! He’s small, old, and yet Minnesota desperately needs him to avoid the offense cratering from lack of playmaking. He won’t be able to be effective constantly hunted on offense. Los Angeles lacks center depth, but they are huge elsewhere. Randle is an interesting x-factor if you ignore his playoff history. He does have the ability to create advantages outside of Edwards. Randle’s comfort offensively would be a pleasant surprise advantage for Minnesota.
Then there’s Gobert, who is forever discussed when there’s any match-up involve five-out small ball. How will Gobert fair this time? Depends on how well Finney-Smith and Hachimura can light it up, which they certainly can. The more important thing to note is that five-out puts Gobert in a tough position. If he’s away from the rim, then it’s open season for Los Angeles’ guards in the paint. If he’s giving space to the shooters, then it’s open season from the perimeter. I’m not sure how Finch will incorporate Gobert in this series, but he needs to find a way to make his defensive strengths stand out, because they can’t if he can’t camp in the paint.
It's simply hard to find many advantages for Minnesota other than their length and physicality. They are certainly built for the playoffs and if Los Angeles shrinks under physicality, then everything I’m saying obviously doesn’t matter; but Luka and LeBron aren’t the type to shrink in that environment in history’s past.
Los Angeles wins if: They have better playmaking over the course of the series. Redick produces a scheme that forces Edward to think in the air more often than not. Conley gets ran off the floor, Gobert is ineffective, and Minnesota’s clutch minutes are ass.
Minnesota wins if: Physicality was the way. Finch just switches everything and dares LeBron and Luka to shoot over the top of length. Edwards is a playmaking savant.
Los Angeles in five.
(2) Houston Rockets versus (7) Golden State Warriors
“I appreciate you getting me my first win in this motherfucker.” – Dillon Brooks to Green in Boston
He made a reservation to International Smoke and canceled it. I was upset with him” – Stephen Curry on Ime Udoka
“I’m sorry I’m giving you all the lowest energy ever. I’m exhausted. I sound like Klay Thompson up here. – Draymond
“Styles make fights” is an old boxing adage that describes this classic matchup. These teams couldn’t be further apart in their makeup. Houston’s roster is filled with historic bruisers like Dillon Brooks, Curry’s old nemesis Fred VanVleet from 2019 Finals, and even the 2022 Finals opposing coach Ime Udoka who is familiar with schemes to frustrate Curry on offense. Amen Thompson is the most impressive defender we’ve seen in modern times and the overall the combination of athleticism, size, and physicality has given them a rebounding advantage that exceeds conventional wisdom. They earned their 2-seed by dominating in the margins through possession battles. Turnovers, offensive boards, and tough switching defense.
Golden State is the opposite. They’re smaller, older, and have spent more time throughout the season figuring things out. They rank fourth in assists per game, so they’re all about constant movement, cutting, and making open shots off of flow. So, when I say styles make fights, I feel we’re in for what feels like Sacramento versus Golden State 2023.
To begin, Houston’s halfcourt offensive ranking of 22nd brings me concern. Yes, they can rebound better than anyone, and they may even have the ability to defend Curry as he’s shot 36% against Houston in five games this season, but the central question to this series to me on Houston’s end is who is going to score consistent four out of seven times against this team?
Houston is 13-1 when Jalen Green scores 30+. Jalen is an incredibly high variance player, but his scoring is a major barometer for this team. Draymond is a strong post defender despite his lack of size, and Sengun’s been inconsistent against him in the regular season only scoring 0.6 per possession in post-ups. I don’t believe he’s going give Houston the points they need with his first time in the playoffs. Dillon Brooks is their best three-point shooter. Brooks has improved his offense overall, but can he honestly shoot 40% in a series?
Golden State have their own loads of match-up issues with this team. They’ll likely be killed on the glass evident of their two play-in games (Golden State is 16-17 when outrebounded), Curry will be flustered most likely among the physicality and size, and their supporting cast’s efficiency outside of Curry typically decides whether Golden State prevails. This series will be about Butler. He must score, and he will do this by targeting Jalen Green. Butler needs to find a way to release the pressure from Curry and allow the supporting cast to fill in the blanks.
We also know Golden State sometimes excessively turn the ball over; a crucial factor for this matchup that will decide the pace. Like with Sacramento last year, ball security is everything as Houston feeds off lost possessions and fastbreak points.
This will be a long, grueling series and will likely go to seven. I lean Golden State mostly because I have more faith in their halfcourt offense than Houston’s. Houston’s star offensive players are new to the playoffs.
Houston wins if: Jalen Green and Sengun are comfortable offensively. Golden State turned the ball over too many times. Houston’s rebounds and fastbreaks overwhelm them. Curry can’t get free. Butler isn’t enough and Golden State’s supporting cast shrunk under physicality and size.
Golden State wins if: Butler finds ways to carry the team on his back. Curry either scores fine against Houston or they get great things out of trapping him. The supporting cast hit their open shots, and they rebound better than expected. Houston’s offense is too inefficient for their possession ratio to matter.
Golden State in seven.
She's back.
Attachments
I'll be happy if the Pistons just manage to win games, to be honest.
Well, the first game went really well until it didn't.
Bro the pistons and knicks were straight up fighting. Gonna be a good series
Well, it was completely unwatchable, but the Pistons won a game! The longest playoff losing streak in NBA history is over! I'm seriously gonna watch at least three more games of this atrocity. Jesus Christ.