Finally out, I have found myself time to educate myself on the qualifying teams enough to feel moderately equipped to speak on these games (plus predicts are neat). Necessary disclaimer, though my language can at times be blunt I think this is a pretty great semis, y'all deserve to be here and I would be interested in seeing every game here. Hoping everyone has fun and plays well.
Celestial Tower Tycoons vs Iki Town Idols
SV: umbry vs etern - An obvious highlight in a week with a particularly high bar, of which I choose to skew umbry on a slightly higher perceived ceiling as a player. etern has shown sustained interest and proficiency in this tier, and as a more humble player the departure of Rillaboom removes one of few X factors that would deny them yet another win, to the point where my selection could very justifiably by seen as an upset. Nonetheless, I must follow my heart in these matters.
SV: Xiri vs starbitstorm - Another difficult call to make for me, with both players being subject to shuffle that ultimately found them as the best bet for their teams' last leg. SBS comes across as consistently motivated and capable of winning, but has in my observations not yet fully found their stride in Bo1 environment, better working within the greater sample size ladder or circuits provide. A seeming reluctance to engage with traditional balances to me also communicates a lacking confidence in strength of play, as well as obviously presenting the opponent with more leeway in their prep. For this I tend to favor the more 'steady' choice in Xiri.
SV: Kushalos vs Finchinator - In a matchup of WCOP researchers I find Finchie to have more thoroughly immersed himself into the tier, and the results have reflected as much. Kush is by no means a bad player, to the contrary I would say he is quantifiably good, but his performance here reads as a pilot graciously accepting a team from management and playing off an established understanding of the game. Coupled with a more thorough embrace of what defines SV as a gen, I feel Finch should take this. He better not take any RNG gracelessly though, I'd feel real silly for saying nice things about him if he did!
SS: Attribute vs Lily - Another theme pairing, 7-2 Sharks. I've grown to be something of an Attribute fan, understands the form to such a point where he can break the rules of building with intention and pull the necessary triggers to make it all connect. Lily has also been very good lately, but between the two I view Attribute as the upheaval to Lily's status quo, and would tend to favor him thusly.
SM: odr vs Adaam - Big game for old, washed up grandpas. odr as a player thrives in environments where he can take the bull by the horns and control the tempo of the game, and he is clearly quite good at it but it does come with its shortcomings. Adaam to me is a player that is capable of both making the plays necessary to stabilize his game and prep against his opponent effectively. That or we get another game like his vs Kumiko but I'd much prefer we didn't.
ORAS: Dj Breloominati♬ vs Gondra - Spitfire has been playing to the combination of lucky and good this tour, and while some karmic forces might feel due for holding together HO's with a Klefki I'm not altogether confident Gondra and Co have the wherewithal to properly counter prep what he's been bringing. I do not find myself the biggest believer of momentum as a be all, end all in these kinds of situations, but they most assuredly reflect on morale and form at this time and Spitfire in this moment has been the better player.
BW: Punny vs hellom - It is no admonishment of hellom's abilities, ill reflected by his mediocre record, to call this Punny's game to lose; I simply find their quality of play and approach to the game to be strong to the point that the most likely cause for a loss would be going a bit overboard in the builder. This is not to say this won't be a competitive game, to the contrary I would be hoping it's one of the best of season in this tier, but nonetheless one where most paths lead to a Punny win.
DPP: frankjosh vs Thiago Nunes - TNunes has been rummaging through the couch cushions a bit for his A game this tour, and while a solid win last week would have the fans hoping he's found it I still think I have to give it to frank here, who's been locked in if and when he shows up. Should be another quality match, which is great news because knowing my man frankie josh this game will be getting played no matter what; his love for the game is too pure and true, and he will be playing even if the week is settled beforehand.
ADV: Charmriah vs Xrn - Xrn is another player I've quietly been a big fan of for a handful of years now, capable of quickly identifying the 'good stuff' in a tier and playing their best outs in any given game, usually. Charmriah has been rightfully developing a profile in these tiers, and while I think I've found myself a wee bit skeptical of some of their recent brings it does present themselves as a player capable of operating outside convention. To me this X factor feels like the most important trait for them to play to for an 'upset', and tentatively puts it as one of my most anticipated games from this series.
GSC: feen vs Denial - While I understand the guiding logic behind the decisions from both teams, can't help but feel a wee bit sad to see both 'proper' GSC players sidelined here, they were not reflected properly by their records and I would hope both aren't feeling too disparaged by the way things panned out. Be that as it may, fun little RU mod match, what are the odds? A little tough to assess a juggle like this, with both having at least a modicum of GSC bootcamp (the heads will recall feen the Cryo's GSC starter) and proven ability to win games, but with what I know I will yield to recent performance and say that feen the Pokemon player has been winning a fair bit, and might see this game as a natural extension of that.
Moomoo Farm Mysterious Sisters vs Camphrier Town Ladies
SV: passion vs vivalospride - While I think viv's strength of schedule was a bit higher than passion's, on whole he struggles a bit to access his full potential as a player. Should he go into this game unburdened by self doubt this is a closer game, but with all factors present it feels most likely that passion takes this, with their play stable and team selection largely on top of current trends.
SV: Piyu vs Mossy Sandwich - SV as I see it is one of the current gens that most graciously rewards active players, and as I see it Piyu is in the thick of it and Mossy less so. I don't feel I've witnessed a loss of 'it' from them, but if we're talking comparative ceilings then I think Piyu has been better about allotting themselves the tools to win.
SV: Rasche vs Bouff - Bouff will be entering the zone this week, I have it on good authority. I've enjoyed their approach to the tier this season, and believe they will put in the necessary work to adapt smoothly out of Rillaboom meta. Rasche is a player I've kept an eye on and pushed to be rated fairly highly when UUBD PR's were being done, they've got a good game but have done so primarily in environments where the dust is settled tiering-wise and they're permitted to play the hits well.
SS: Fogbound Lake vs crying - Probably an upset given their respective trajectories this tour, but I think stylistically Fog tends to match up very well against a player such as crying, at their best really cracking down on overly passive play and recognizing the lines to win such games pretty early. crying has been successfully deviating from what I view as their most exploitable stall builds, but by and large is always going to be marching to the beat of their own drum. With some no fuss prep it feels like a game for Fog to bounce back.
SM: Santu vs Indigo Plateau - Now this comes with a big, big asterisk that says 1-2 times a tour Santu decides to load the worst team man has yet seen so he can get real mad about unwinnable matchup and this could be that week, but on the whole I would say he's a pretty excellent player and capable of beating out IP on a totally even playing field. There is an X factor in the prep work, IP is entirely capable of winning in the builder here and is of course a solid player in his own right, but this to me feels most likely.
ORAS: dingbat vs Shiba - Not the most becoming tour for ding, sadly, not sure he's got a clean win on the board yet. Shiba has been looking pretty darn good this year, and the sheet would certainly say he takes this, but he does have a nasty habit of assuming everyone is playing from the same Competitive Pokemon 101 textbook he is that prompts him to overlook certain lines. Ding certainly has the capacity to conjure that up and return to form here, but at present I gotta respect what I've been seeing.
BW: Monai vs Cow - Despite a not entirely becoming record, Cow has been steadily finding their footing in this tier in a way that should have been punctuated by a big win some 95% of the time last week, and I think it's important to acknowledge as much. Unfortunately they are finding themselves in a pretty killer playoffs pool, and despite their also not-so-hot record I do think Monai is pretty good at Pokemon. Fairly similar players stylistically, but to me Monai edges them out slightly in most regards, and given the tools to find a neutral or better matchup should clench this game.
DPP: fatty vs Estarossa - The Show has remained steadfast and consistent through this tour, and did in fact come out on top in their regular season game, but for my money this feels like it goes fatty. I really liked his prep work for their game prior, though by his own admission the execution left something to be desired, which to me is a clear indicator of commitment when in the UUPL prior it felt quite clear he was losing steam by roughly that point. Hoping to see that follow-through here, should be a cool one.
ADV: shiloh vs Heysup - While my actions as a manager last year may not read this way (choosing not to retain for roughly what they went for in auction and thereafter buying their current opp shiloh), I do consider Heysup to presently be setting the bar in ADV UU right now; their approach to the tier is iconoclastic and hard to replicate, plenty of folks' opinions don't necessarily align with his, but the inevitability of it is that a lot of his ideas take and he finds his wins regardless. He has continued to look good this year, and be it from meager support or diminished investment shiloh has not so much, so it's feeling like a safe bet.
GSC: BeeOrSomething vs SANKE CARP - I'd be remiss to pretend like SANKE dropping into the negatives is all him, this prediction is more than anything an acknowledgement that Bee is hungry for these wins and has the skillset to get them. Both are solid players that will be motivated to buff their records but gun to my head I would call Bee's fundamentals a little better. Maybe we'll just see BP though, who knows?
Celestial Tower Tycoons (5) vs (5) Iki Town Idols
Moomoo Farm Mysterious Sisters (5) vs (5) Camphrier Town Ladies
