First post here, but I’ve been playing on the ladder and following this thread for the better part of the year.
I feel that, in general, the VR is way too much influenced by the current trends and a lot of the time fails to see the long-term appeal of a lot of mons, especially in the high ranks.
We’ve seen a lot of mons rise all the way up from B tiers to A/A+ in the span of a few updates (with people sometimes clamoring them to go up to S rank even), only to go back to one or two sub ranks higher than their original position on the very next updates. Examples of this include Clefable, Zapdos, Latios-Mega and Alakazam-Mega (though they haven’t dropped all the way down yet, but they definitely will), Kartana, Gastrodon (though he was lower tier)… I think that all these mons didn’t rise because we discovered a new set that made an impact on the meta, but rather because some people started to play more of the existing sets, realized they were quite good, then became popular and spammed on the ladder and in tournaments. I think Latios-Mega is the prime example of this. Nothing has changed for it between the time he was OU by technicality and today when it’s A tier. The set is the same, it’s always been strong against the same things (TTar, Magerna, Heatran…) which were and are always top threats in the meta, it’s just that people thought it was trash because it was during ORAS. Yes, he was certainly ranked too low before, but I think it will settle around A-/B+ once things are settled down.
There are other mons which saw a similar rise, like Tornadus-T or Tapu Bulu, but those were entirely justified because they came with new sets (and at least twice for Bulu) that bumped their viability. Almost no one is arguing against their A+ rank today because it is deserved and isn’t really the result of a particular trend like Clefable was for instance.
The same thing is true for drops, where the VR seems very quick to propose some drops as soon as a top tier pokemon is performing slightly worse than it has always been. We’ve seen Magerna drop to A and then almost immediately go back to A+, Volcarona drop to A- and then back to A, and now we are arguing about a possible Koko drop to A-, just like we’ve been arguing just a few months ago for Lando-T to A+. Nothing has ever changed for all of this mons, they will always be top tier no matter what trend is currently happening, by virtue of their types, abilities, movesets and stats. I don’t think that there is any universe that has a USUM tier with the same banlist that doesn’t have Lando-T S tier or have Tapu Koko sharing the same tier as Reuniclus. These pokemons are just too good regardless of the current state of the meta.
I agree though that there is some variance, and that trends shouldn’t be blatantly ignored while making the VR. But I think we should take a few steps back from the everchanging mess of teams we face every day, acknowledge that some trends are cyclical, some will fade in a month and some will stay for a while. This isn’t simple at all, but I believe we are perfectly suited for the challenge with the council that has some very knowledgeable and dedicated members who spend a lot of time managing it. I don’t think showing the variance and the current trends of the metagame is the goal of the VR for two reasons : it doesn’t update nearly as fast as it should for this, especially because we tend not to have big rises/drops, and also because showing trends could very well be automated by analyzing the ladder and tournament results for pick rates, win rates and team compositions, building a chart for every pokemon reflecting its "effectiveness" across time.
Of course, such a feature would be imperfect at best, but I think it could bring a lot of insight on the current state of the metagame, much more accurately than the VR ever could by virtue of being always up to date and impartial. That “trend display” could very well augment the current VR by showing if every pokemon is trending up or down and could be the basis for requesting rises or drops (ex: this mon is A and has been trending up for a while, shouldn’t we move it up to A+?).
In any case, regarding the current slate of changes:
- Greninja-Ash to S: disagree, because nothing has really changed for it since the beginning of USUM (if anything, we have more fat grasses lying around), but mostly because I think that moving him to S will cause teams to prepare more for it, causing the next slate of changes to ask him to go back to A+ because it’s not as strong it was as a month ago. Also, it has exactly one optimal set (the spikes-less sets are definitely not S-worthy, and the Hydro Vortex set is only good with Rain to get back the power lost from not running Specs). Even Kartana had 3 different sets back when it was S- with a choice of Z-Move and it sits in A these days.
- Alakazam-Mega to A: agree, I think we went a bit overboard with it and that it shouldn’t have moved to A+ in the first place.
- Scizor-Mega to A-: not sure, I agree that it may not be as strong as it has been, but I wonder if A- isn’t too low. I think we need more time to act on it.
- Tapu Koko to A-: strongly disagree, not in a million years. Ranking him at the same subrank as Hawlucha would mean that all there is to that mon is to be paired with it (like Pelipper/Swampert-Mega, that one being true), which is simply not true since it can do a lot on its own too.
- Gengar to C+: agree, it’s not as threatening as Blace (that should probably stay B-) and it’s hard to justify him over a lot of more powerful options. It doesn’t help that is best set is probably the one that uses a Z-Move.
I think
Mawile-Mega to S was also previously discussed, and I’ll
disagree on this one too because while it’s a bit more versatile that Greninja, it’s simply too slow and too reliant on a non-stabbed priority (that has a lot of common resists) to be considered among the best of the best mons in the metagame. Like with Greninja and other examples I gave earlier, I’m pretty sure that should Mawile rise to S-rank, it won’t last there very long.