The Everything NFL Thread - 2012 Season (Up til 2013 Draft)

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Can we get back to the real story here which is the fact that Baltimore is treating their most valuable asset like practice squad fodder and they don't even realize it? I wonder if old Ozzie is losing his touch, because Boldin is a player you find once every 10 years or so.
 
I agree, the lack of respect Boldin gets is really...I dunno, stupid? First it was with the Cardinals, where yeah they had Fitzgerald, but Boldin was the guy doing the dirty work and ensuring that no one wanted to double team Fitzgerald since then Boldin could take over. And now with the Ravens, where he and Jones both won them the Super Bowl offensively and now he's being asked to take a paycut or leave...

Hope he gets signed by a team that will, you know, honor his contract till the end at least. Like the Niners maybe.../shameless plug
 
Hahaha what? Once in ten years??? Boldin has never had a great season that has not involved Kurt Warner. Every other season he has has been like "the season every average competent #1 wide receiver has every year". So he is more like a 100-in-a-decade player. Yeah I still think he floats around in the top 30 WR every season, but no need to conflate a Super Bowl winning season with some otherworldly talent or whatever you are imagining.
 
Thank god you said that, because I thought I was the only crazy one not thinking he was this elite WR.

He's a slightly better Braylon Edwards.

I'm glad he's finally able to catch some out of reach balls, but come on.
 
Hahaha what? Once in ten years??? Boldin has never had a great season that has not involved Kurt Warner. Every other season he has has been like "the season every average competent #1 wide receiver has every year". So he is more like a 100-in-a-decade player. Yeah I still think he floats around in the top 30 WR every season, but no need to conflate a Super Bowl winning season with some otherworldly talent or whatever you are imagining.

I agree that once in ten years is a massive stretch, but stats do not represent Boldin very well at all. You don't see everyday receivers making the catches that he makes. He is to Joe Flacco what TonyG is to Matt Ryan. Speaking of Tony G

Ironically, I'm kind of torn.
 
Numbers don't always indicate a WR's talent. Look at the season Larry Fitzgerald just had with the Cardinals. Anyone who actually watches the Ravens games can see Boldin coming down with amazing catch after amazing catch. His "mediocre numbers" are because Flacco is inaccurate, not because he's an average WR. I'm having a hard time thinking of other WRs in the game right now that consistently make catches as difficult as Boldin does, even the top ones like AJ80, Megatron, and Fitz. I wish there was a stat that could measure the "difficulty" of each catch a WR makes, so a comprehensive WR Rating could be formulated.
 
Numbers exactly indicate talent with Fitzgerald; with a shitload of shit quarterbacks throwing to him, he kept putting up numbers before finally becoming completely exhausted, or maybe he played through a lot of injuries, or maybe he actually lost a step.

We have 3 straight years of numbers that tell us every single thing we need to know about Boldin on the Ravens, amount of extra promising cute plays!!! a player is involved in do not. Numbers say that you are not even close to a remotely the littlest bit correct.

I am not saying the Ravens should ask him to take a pay cut or whatever is happening, but what I read was he wanted a pay raise, and if they do not want to deal with that they should not, nothing he has done has particularly merited it. Sometimes teams that won a championship have to absolutely cut players (Patriots showed us how to do it almost completely correctly, including cutting Deion Branch who had 143, 116, 133, and 153 yard playoff games in just 8 games, beating Boldin for sure, and Brady was not even a 4000 yard QB in any of those years except the one with the 153 yard game), sometimes they have to pay players. They already overpaid Flacco, doubling down and overpaying Boldin (a 900 yard a year WR for 3 straight years) would be fucking ridiculous no matter where his yards per catch is at. It would be the same as overpaying a more consistent Deion Branch.
 
I'd say his mediocre numbers have more to do with the fact that the offense loves to just heave it to Torrey instead of going for more methodical drives. Inaccuracy may have something to do with that, but it's not like Flacco was throwing to Boldin all the time and always missing. He was throwing to Smith and Jones 25 yards deep all the time and missing (except, fortunately, in the playoffs).
 
uh boldin was awful in the regular season this year guys, im not saying flacco wasn't awful at times as well but boldin could never get separation from a defender and was basically a piece of cardboard out there.

he had a great postseason but let's not pretend he's on the level of elite wrs in the nfl...he's not anywhere close
 
Thank god you said that, because I thought I was the only crazy one not thinking he was this elite WR.

he had a great postseason but let's not pretend he's on the level of elite wrs in the nfl...he's not anywhere close

there's that word again!

Boldin was only signed up for $6 million salary and has averaged $7 million over the last four years. There are a lot of mediocre names making more than that (think Devin Hester, DeSean Jackson, Santonio Holmes, etc.) and he brings a lot of veteran experience to the group. I can't understand why they try this with him, unless they're just hardballing him and don't actually intend to release him if he doesn't accept a pay cut. Flacco's cap hit is very small this year, so unless they honestly expect to retain Reed/Kruger I don't know why they would go through so much effort to reduce the salary of someone that is still rather valuable to them.

Speaking of Flacco, his contract is really rather interesting. Not going to get into specifics, but his cap hit over the next three years is something like 7/15/15 million, which is pretty small considering the deal he signed. However, over the last three years, it balloons up to almost double that; something like 25/30/20 in cap hit. In the 2016 offseason, the Ravens will be in another tricky predicament - they will have to either extend Flacco or cut him. Cutting him almost isn't even an option, because it would create something along the lines of $10 million in dead cap space each of the last three years of his deal. Because of how the deal is structured, he'll command all of the negotiating power and will likely be in line for an even bigger raise, even if he just continues to be serviceable. If things go right for them and he becomes a top quarterback sometime in that time frame, then it's not a problem for them; if he stays borderline top 10-15, we'll be reliving this discussion in three years.
 
Killah, Devin Hester is not signed to receive passes lol. He basically wins his team a fucking game on returns a year, which is insane to have sustained until now. When DeSean Jackson signed his contract I have to imagine it was when he looked like he could take over the league...he had 22.5 yards per catch one season!!! Santonio Holmes was signed after a 1248 yard season, and considering he had a monster game in a Super Bowl about as close (a full year gap but still) to when he signed as Boldin, I still do not think there is any comparable edge for Boldin when you drop the word mediocre. In fact, you are basically describing the scenario that makes the Ravens not give a shit - Santonio Holmes is why they do not care about Boldin right now! Although they might be being too stubborn about what price point you have to just suck it up and pay in the NFL, fuck if I know. Contract negotiations are always a mess.

I agree with you that the non-Hester receivers have incisively similar outputs to Boldin, I just think you are wayyyyyyyyyy mixing up the timing. Besides the Super Bowl win there is not a single thing on Boldin's recent resume that is anywhere nearly as good as what those guys should have had going when they signed (I say should because again no idea when Jackson signed or extended or whatever).
 
You continue to blame Boldin's numbers on Boldin. Remember who is throwing to him: A quarterback whose continual sub-4k, <60% accurate passing seasons involve mostly him checking down to Ray Rice and throwing hail mary passes to Torrey Smith. A possession receiver like Boldin getting 900 yards a season under those conditions is more impressive than you realize. Also remember the gross inconsistencies of the entire offense from game to game throughout the year, where Cam Cameron would follow up a monster game with an absolute bomb. It's not Boldin's fault he's like the 5th option in their scheme. All I know is that when I watched him play he would always make incredible catches of balls thrown into tight coverage or thrown way out of a normal WR's reach. There's so much more to this situation than stats, I'm surprised more people haven't figured that out. Continuing to argue that Boldin is mediocre strictly because of his stats is just ignorance.
 
Pretty sure you just rounded 57.6 and 59.7 down to 50%. Jesus fucking christ.

Boldin's numbers compare to Braylon Edwards and Percy Harvin in 2010 without Torrey Smith around (both of whom had worse QB situations and worse team situations for offense, both of whom were better), 2 years later and 1 of those guys is almost out of the league, one of them people are saying should be traded for a second rounder. Granted it was his first year with the team, but his #s did not improve later and you seem to find the existence of Torrey Smith to mean something so apparently we can only point to life without him.
 
Pretty sure you just rounded 57.6 and 59.7 down to 50%. Jesus fucking christ.

Boldin's numbers compare to Braylon Edwards and Percy Harvin in 2010 without Torrey Smith around (both of whom had worse QB situations and worse team situations for offense, both of whom were better), 2 years later and 1 of those guys is almost out of the league, one of them people are saying should be traded for a second rounder. Granted it was his first year with the team, but his #s did not improve later and you seem to find the existence of Torrey Smith to mean something so apparently we can only point to life without him.

Yeah this.
 
Fixed my error with the numbers, my mind was elsewhere. He's still sub-60% which is pathetic for a starting NFL QB.

I can't argue with you CK, because in this particular case you seem insistent on using only numbers to judge him, leaving out all the intangibles. Every time I bring those up, you revert back to this "but he had similar numbers to Braylon Edwards" bit. Are you seriously trying to tell me that Anquan Boldin is equal to Braylon "Empty Fingers" Edwards? You of all people should know that stats are only a part of a player's story, and it's very easy for stats to be misleading.
 
i still dont understand this obsession with completion% judging whether you're horrendous or not. at least use a stat like ypa where flacco is ranked 14th to prove your overpaid argument. especially when flacco was 60%+ his first 3 seasons and have a career average of 60+%

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/5536/ben-roethlisberger

oh god 2 sub 60% seasons hes horrible! even tho ben was sub 60 when he won a superbowl in 2008 too!

yards is so meaningless as well. the ravens have 1700 yards in rushing coming from pearce + rice, along with one of the best returners in football. also flacco was still 14th in passing yards so i dont even get that argument.

also you ignored the analysis of ravens fans who watched boldin play all season, along with numbers. you're going by 2 games you saw vs the steelers (where he posted 79 yards and 81 yards, with only 1 touchdown between 2 games) and his strong postseason, while ignoring his horribly inefficient regular season which was due to him. he had 4 touchdowns on the season. stop overrating players pls
 
The only thing I really think statistics leave work to do is the difficulty in contextualizing across years & tons of players as well as well as the difficulty of prescribing the best standard interpretations of what matters. However, in this case we have easy answers because of 3 years straight of the same thing...Boldin is a cuttable player a la Deion Branch (who had a 3764- yard QB every year except his last) or Santonio Holmes (who had a 3531- yard QB every year except his last). The former had a better playoff career right before being cut, the latter had a better season on the surface right before being cut, also just one more season off of a game as good as/better than Boldin's Super Bowl game (more yards, same 1 TD, but got more chances to catch the ball obviously). So we know exactly how Boldin should be treated because of his numbers, whether or not it 110% perfectly represents his maximum capabilities. Remember this is not a discussion about "can Boldin do better", it is a discussion about why the Ravens are fucking around with him. It is because history says 90% you will replace that Holmes/Branch level shit right away.

I understand I may be too stubborn in that I already automatically consider myself right, but you keep pointing to how Flacco represents any problem per Boldin's statistics. It is just not the truth. It literally has no relevance, Boldin is Santonio Holmes with a way better QB (when you include things like TDs...this might also be affected by the recent passing surge, d.w. I am not trying to slip in Big Ben bashing to get personal or anything, just trying to be objective).

Numbers that are all over the place can lie, it gets very hard to interpret those. Numbers that are totally consistent (what we have with Boldin) + the meaning of a player to your overall schemes/sets tell you everything you need to know sometimes though. You do not pay for past ceilings, you pay for what you think the current ceiling is.

Boldin might perk up without Cam Cameron, that much I can totally concede. He perked up to about 80 yards per game (except one 42 yard game) with Cam Cameron gone. That would be very worth keeping around. There are just a ton of concrete examples for why dumping Boldin is a low risk, and why they are deciding to go cold blooded with him and treat him like he is extraneous...there is a history of WR production often being totally replaceable. Seeing when the talent exceeds the numbers is a very hard call to make, and usually not worth the trouble on a team that already has something reliable (like Baltimore does with its defense) to fall back on.
 
Eh, I'm probably overvaluing Boldin a bit. However, @kd24, I watched more than just 2 Ravens games all season. I watched most of them actually, and I never saw Boldin playing badly (dropping passes, running incorrect routes, Randy Moss-ing, etc). Sure he had some games where he was practically invisible, but those were always games where he wasn't being thrown to in the first place because either the entire offense was sputtering, Ray Rice was having a field day, or Flacco was just throwing to Torrey. As I watched over the course of the season, I noticed that Flacco tended to pick a "favorite" receiver from week to week, so you would see Boldin or Smith or Pitta put up like 140 yards in one game and then 23 the next. It would fluctuate between receivers, so if you were to analyze each pass-catcher on a weekly basis, you'd see numbers making significant jumps and dives.

As for using completion percentage to judge, I don't use a stat like that to judge a person based on one season. However, when a QB's completion rate is CONSISTENTLY low year after year, that tells me something. When you couple it with an equally sub-par YPA, it tells you more. Flacco's comp% was 60+ in his first 3 years, sure. 60.0%, 63.1%, and 62.6%. His career comp% is also barely above 60% at an impressive 60.5. This isn't exactly a huge step up from sub-60, and his % has actually gotten WORSE each year since his second. kd24's comparison with Roethlisberger, whose career average is the same as Flacco's absolute best single season average and whose YPA is almost a full yard above Flacco for his career, is just an attempt to needle me.

I think this argument is beaten to death. We're both being stubborn anyway so I guess we'll just disagree on our views of Boldin. I still think the Ravens will sorely miss him if he goes, but who knows what will happen until the season starts. We'll see!
 
Percy Harvin has been reportedly traded to the Seahawks for a 1st round pick plus additional late round picks, pending his accepting of a new contract.


I think Harvin is a fantastic player, but I really really hate this deal. This is a massive mistake by the Seahawks, regardless of how well he plays for them next season and beyond. Harvin has insisted he be paid Megatron money, which is probably around $14-15 million a year, as opposed to Vincent Jackson/Dwayne Bowe money ($11 million a year).

The Seahawks are giving up a 1st round pick and are going to give up a lot of money for a guy that's already been proven to be a locker room cancer and has recurring injury issues. This isn't even a team with a massive need at WR; they already have all the pieces in place for a SB run next year. They're giving up draft picks in what looks to be one of the best draft classes in years plus a lot of money for someone who has never even had a 1,000 yard season and has only played all 16 games once.
 
Boldin is now a 49er which they got for a 6th round pick. Looks like Randy Moss isn't going to be resign to the 49ers. Flacco, hope you're happy with the money.
 
I assumed Moss was retiring, so that part isn't surprising to me. I was surprised by how little Baltimore got for Boldin, as even in his old age he still isn't the kind of player you can get in the 6th round most of the time.
 
Ravens are idiots for trading boldin for that little in my mind, especially after the harvin trade set the price for receivers high...

Regardless the 9ers and seahawks both look at least as good as they were last year, when they were 2 of the top 3 teams in the league for the regular season...
 
How did SF manage to get so many picks?

It must be really weird playing for the team that you ahredded and trash talked in the superbowl haha.

Also Sjax come to atlanta pls. You too Dumervil
 
Mark my words, the Ravens will miss the playoffs this year.

of course, so will the Steelers, but :(

I'm not a fan of the Harvin deal either. After they paid Matt Flynn all that money to come in and sit on the bench, and considering they don't even NEED a Harvin type player in their offense, this is an enormous waste of good draft picks and probably a ton of money. I know they're trying to give Wilson weapons, but they'd be better off with a tough, possession receiver type like a Boldin or AJ80. Oh well, I think they already have the pieces in place they need to be a contender for a while, so losing those draft picks may not hurt them as badly as we expect.
 
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