Playing 10pm GMT-5 on Sunday, hf. Scrambled thoughts on some match-ups I am excited by below
SV OU: oldspicemike vs Kushalos
Kushalos has been super efficient in a limited sample of OU this generation; his WCoP was good and a brief SCL stint showed more competency. Mike looked amazing through most of SCL though and he has the same supporting backbone -- xavgb -- that he had during SCL. I really think a continuation of his strong showing from SCL is in order due to how sustainable it looked. He picked good teams, avoided gamebreaking errors, timed his Tera well routinely, and stayed very current with the metagame. Can Kushalos exhibit all of these things as well? Sure, he can. And if he does, his skill ceiling projects to be higher given his track record, but I do need a bit more convincing and I think this is a tough ask for him W1. I pretty much think Mike projects to be a fringe SV1 who can win 6 or so games in this pool (maybe more if he continues to ascend) while Kushalos is a good starting option who will do better as the season goes on and he continues to adjust to being a full-time OUer. Lean Mike for sure, but great match-up.
ORAS OU: pj vs Niko
pj routinely looks awesome in ORAS and I really loved his progression last season. He also has done well individually and I think has a good shot of going positive, taking games off of the top-heavy part of the pool, living up the his retain value, etc. The barrier here is that I think Niko is more experiencedat playing the extremes of the metagame, which makes him a pain-in-the-ass to prepare for. A lot of this could boil down to team selection and early game lines because of this. Honestly, you could tell me Niko brings just about anything -- including archetypes/Pokemon I have yet to even see surface in ORAS -- and I would not be too shocked. pj showed good range last year, even rocking a really cool HO in playoffs last year, but I do think this is going to be an awkward opponent for anyone to prepare for going into W1. I definitely see Niko as the more volatile of the two, but his ceiling is super high and I find players like this tend to do really well early in tournaments, even coming out a step or two ahead in terms of metagaming. Maybe less applicable to ORAS than a CG tier, but honestly ORAS is still revolving as time goes, so I am going to stick with my gut despite really liking pj's prospects this season.
SV OU: mncmt vs Rubyblood
I would love to be proven wrong, but the vibes took a hit with Rubyblood after his awsome SCL start. Feels like he was on top of the world with an X-0 or x-1 record deep into the regular season, but then he got unfortunate in a game or two and things got cloudy. I even thought he was going to prefer GSC before he ended up in SV. Maybe he just got busy at the wrong time -- I do not know and to assume anything would be unfair, so I am not going to try and connect the dots -- but the same motivation/success did not quite resonate after the start. Just hope that we can see him return to peak form as Ruby was a great addition to the player pool for a couple of months. The unfortunate thing is that mncmt is a top player around, so this is a tough draw to start for Rubyblood or really anyone to start things off. mncmt's 9-0 last SPL was no joke, his continued sheet success is not a fluke, and, while he is quiet and less of a firsthand builder than some others at times, he clearly is a winning player. Dude is going to generate awesome value for his retain and I see another positive season, so going to bold him for now. High ceiling for Rubyblood if he returns to SCL form, but need to see more proven before picking him here.
DPP OU: Pideous vs Dridri457
It is always cool when two newcomers to the SPL scene face-off. Pideous is the type of dude where every DPP game of his I ever see, it feels like he wins -- they could be friendlies, unofficial tours, invittionals, etc., but he always wins. Maybe it is just my timing, but I really like how he projects to do this season. Not as familiar with Dridri457, but I am sure the Tyrants scouted out a good value pick because it is in their DNA to do so. Curious to see how that pans out, but gonna side with the more proven entity here in a game I will be sure to tune-in for.
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko
Seeing TDK take on a new format/generation to him is always a treat. He has a seemingly endless supply of fun concepts to try and apply, so I always root for that to happen. Tough draw here as I rank Punny as one of the most dominant players on the entire site and while his SV is not much more special than his other generations, that does not really matter given how adaptable he is, how often he performs well, and how much support he has with the Raiders. Highlight of the week potential here though.
BW OU: Jisoo vs watashi
watashi always uses cool teams in BW. I think preparing for him at the start of a season before you have that profile of "he just used X and I just used X" where you can make some inferences and budget around certain things makes this particularly challenging for Jisoo. Maybe that is just how my peabrain works and a steady diet of solid metagame teams is enough to fend Jisoo off from threats like last season, but I do think there's some potential for stylistic advantage here. Probably an upset pick here given how well Jisoo did last year and the support he has with Raiza, who is a top player in BW alongside Jisoo, but I think watashi is going to do well in a BW field. Jisoo I expect to go positive still, but matching 9 wins from last year is hard and I sorta expect him to trade games with the top 4-5 other players while farming the bottom few. Knowing my track record though, Jisoo will win here and end up with exactly 9 wins this season, so congrats on that Raiders LOL
SV OU: Fogbound Lake vs Laroxyl
I think this SPL will be a huge win for lower tier mainstays pivoting into OU to capitalize on the extra slots. Laroxyl, Kushalos, pdt, Beraldo, Floss, entrofacelo, etc. all have golden opportunities here. Laroxyl in particular is a proven winner at this point; 8 wins in SCL is no joke regardless of tiers. Overall, the dude played amazing Pokemon in the second half of 2023 and I was super impressed by pretty much all of his games. It felt like there was strong reasoning behind each of his moves, even in tiers I did not fully comprehend like LC. I know OU was only a couple of SCL games, but Isza was good that tour and Ruby was great most of that tour, so I do assign some weight to that 2-0 when predicting an upset her. Obvioiusly Fogbound is the real deal though -- he was among the most efficient winners in OU across all of WCoP and SCL, so that deserves even more recognition. I do think a new metagame without his support from the last two campaigns could prove to have a bit of a learning curve for Fogbound, making earlier weeks harder to adapt, but also I think if you are so good at the game that you can win that many games, finding the right team will become evident to him soon enough. Close one given all of this, but for whatever reason my gut says Laroxyl even if track record in OU leans Fogbound, so we'll see. I think both are phenomenal overall and am excited to see teams here either way.
RBY OU: ABR vs Nails
ABR owned late 2023 RBY whenever he played. His consistency impressed me and he obviously is an all-time player. I think some people are writing off Nails due to other strong RBY players coming in with more recency or motivaiton right now, but he is still a literal RBY legend who always finds a way to put up numbers, so I think that despite ABR likely being a top-end player in the pool, Nails will probably get to 5 wins or so. This just will be a hard one for him or anyone to get if ABR is motivated -- feels like he has to be to justify the pricetag from Star, so my expectation is a good showing. Very cool matchup either way.