Hmm, thats about a 7.07% chance that you would find a shiny by then assuming that it doesn't help...
Trust me, I was moments away from quitting. I was convinced it was a load of BS. I kept telling myself, "Why am I wasting my time doing this?" For all I knew, I was statistically only marginally closer to a shiny than I was when I started. 1 in 8192 is incredibly long odds. I pride myself on completing some of the more Draconian boredom tasks in Pokemon (and there are lots of them) -- but I wasn't about to chase a 1 in 8000 shot at a shiny.
But, there were enough testimonials out there, and I was a little interested in separating truth from fiction on the whole chaining process. Which, seemed to have a lot of suspicious "rules" that smelled more like religion than science. "Always walk to a shaking grass patch at least four steps away", "Stay away from edges", etc -- that stuff sounded pretty hokey to me, and smelled more like "Pokemon urban legend" and not real gameplay advice.
Well, I have to admit, the chaining advice was spot-on. Almost all of it. The "four steps rule" is a bit of overkill, but probably a good rule to follow when your chain starts getting really long and you only need a few more to get to 40. I felt a little stupid for following all the little nuances of the "chaining ritual", but it did get me out of the 10-20 range and into the 40's.
Once I got to 40, after several resets, I really started feeling like an idiot for spending a few hours on the stupid quest. At that point, I just wanted to keep an eye the number of fruitless resets I was making, so I could proudly quote the number when I told everyone about my complete waste of time, that everyone else should avoid. Even though I was sick of it, at 100 resets after chaining 40, it just didn't seem like enough resets to claim "I really tried". So I decided to get to 200 and then I would post my failure, along with all sorts of snide comments about the crap people were saying about using the PokeRadar for finding shinies.
And I'll be damned if a shiny didn't pop up. I couldn't believe it. I was excited and a little disappointed at the same time. I REALLY wanted to call bullshit on the whole thing. But, I have a legit shiny, and I can honestly say I worked hard for it (inasmuch as pokemon boredom tests can be considered work).
I know 7% seems somewhat reasonable, but that also means there was a 93% chance I would find nothing. I just don't think I'm that lucky. I won't claim that this was a real scientific test or anything. But, if there are any fellow skeptics out there, perhaps my tale will help you decide whether or not you want to give it a try. If so, please post your results...