51% chance
The chance you do not burn is 70%, so 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 chance to not burn in 2 scalds.
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Resource ORAS OU Simple Questions, Simple Answers (Read the OP First!)
- Thread starter ginganinja
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The chance you do not burn is 70%, so 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 chance to not burn in 2 scalds.
Afaik, sand stream tyranitar works well with char y, due to allowing it to refresh sun when it returns to the field, among other synergistic reasons.
What does Offense use to handle Zard-X and Talonflame? (Especially if they have already set-up a DD / SD)
Hey all, just started getting into more competitive pokemon play and decided that i wanted my first team to have something to do with volcarona, with it being one of my favorite pokemon. that being said, i'll keep it short and sweet with what i'm asking. which pokemon fits the last slot of my team best? i'm still trying to wrap my head around the coverage and weaknesses my team has, but this is what i have so far:
Volcarona w/ flame body
Quiver dance
Fire blast
Giga drain
Bug buzz
Forretress (rapid spin support and stealth rock layer) w/ sturdy
Rapid spin
Stealth rock
Volt switch
Toxic
Tyranitar w/ Sand stream
Stone edge
Pursuit
Superpower
Crunch
Gardevoir w/ trace
Hyper voice
psyshock
focus blast
taunt
Mega Gyarados w/ intimidate
dragon dance
waterfall
earthquake
ice fang
The pokemon that i want in the last slot is between Breloom, togekiss, or possibly skarmory? jolteon? what is this team lacking? and should i go with gardevoir or gengar?
Volcarona w/ flame body
Quiver dance
Fire blast
Giga drain
Bug buzz
Forretress (rapid spin support and stealth rock layer) w/ sturdy
Rapid spin
Stealth rock
Volt switch
Toxic
Tyranitar w/ Sand stream
Stone edge
Pursuit
Superpower
Crunch
Gardevoir w/ trace
Hyper voice
psyshock
focus blast
taunt
Mega Gyarados w/ intimidate
dragon dance
waterfall
earthquake
ice fang
The pokemon that i want in the last slot is between Breloom, togekiss, or possibly skarmory? jolteon? what is this team lacking? and should i go with gardevoir or gengar?
Zard-X: TWave Thundurus, Mega Altaria, Sash TWave Alakazam, Scarfchomp, Scarfterrak, force it to use FBlitz and go to Tankchomp, Heatran if no EQ, Azumarill is a check, Tyranitar if no EQ, Sand Rush Excadrill, Swift Swim Users (Kingdra / Kabutops / Swamp) Mega Diancie if no EQ, Scarf Latios but can only revenge kill
SD TFlame: Tyranitar, Mega Manectric, Heatran with a rock move, Mega Aerodactyl, Kabutops, Mega Diancie, Landorus-T, Sand Rush Exca checks it, Omastar, Magneton checks it (Magnezone doesn't) Thundurus checks it
welcome to the site! I think you're in the wrong thread :P
give your team some more thought, reason out everyone's role, prepare for some of the threats in the "Viability Ranking Thread", test it on the ladder, then make an "RMT" thread here
enjoy your time here :)
edit: take hyper voice off gardevoir if not mega, use moonblast instead
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Please don't send people to the RMT section if they don't have 6 members. I don't think there's anything wrong with getting recommendations for a 6th member in this thread.
If you aren't going to use Mega Gardevoir, I'd recommend using something else since there is a huge gap between how hard Mega Gardevoir and normal Gardevoir hit. Gengar can be a pretty good stall breaker, so it may be worth it to test it over Gardevoir. As for your last slot, if you are going for a Hyper Offense team, Breloom may be a good start since it can help break some of the bulkier water-types in the meta like Suicune and Manaphy. If you do that, I'd recommend using Custap Skarmory or Custap Forretress over a defensive pivot set. If you are going for a more balanced team, you'll need a couple of defensive mons that can easily stomach Water-Type and Fighting-Type moves. There are probably a lot of ways to do that, but one way that comes to mind is dropping Forretress and using Stealth Rock Clefable and Defog Latias.
If scald burning and not burning are mutually exclusive and independent, explain why it's not 2×(3/10)=60%
After 2 Scald attacks, either the opposing mon will be burned or it will not be burned; there's no other outcome, so P(mon is burned) + P(mon isn't burned) = 1, thus P(mon is burned) = 1 - P(mon isn't burned). Further, P(mon isn't burned) is equal to 7/10 * 7/10, which equals 49/100. Thus, P(mon is burned) = 1 - 49/100 = 51/100 = 51%.
That does not explain why my math is incorrect. It's just restating the post I replied to.
By your math, flipping a coin twice guarantees a heads. That's not how statistics work, plain and simple.
Probability just doesn't work that way? I mean your math seems to assume that using Scald x number of times guarantees a burn. If you use Scald 4 times, do you automatically burn? Because 4x(3/10)=12/10, or 120%, even though you can use Scald an infinite number of times and not guarantee a burn mathematically.
If you follow your math Scald will always have burned once after 4 hits (30 + 30 + 30 + 30) which is just not true. Because there is a chance you won't burn in 4 scalds (76%)
It's just how math work
I agree with you that the previous posts have not explained everything that was wrong, they just provided a counterexample to show why theirs makes more sense.
Think of it this way. Let's call A "the probablity Scald burns on the first attempt", and B "the probability of a burn on the second".
Right now, what you have is P(A or B) = .3 +.3 = .6
The thing is, A and B are NOT mutually exclusive: you can get a burn twice, the game just doesn't show the opponent as getting "doubly burned". What I think your error was saying that burn and no burn were mutually exclusive. Which is correct, but that's not what A and B are in this case. Remember that A and B are "getting burns on two attempts", not "getting a burn and not getting a burn".
So, using the addition rule for non-mutually exclusive events, we have P(A or B) = .3 + .3 - P(A and B) = .6 - .3 *.3 = .6 - .09 = .51 or a 51% chance.
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This was the answer I'm looking for thanks.
I see. Thanks everyone that helped! And yeah I posted a few places and ended up here, it seemed like my question didn't belong anywhere. And as far as putting more thought into my team, I'm new to this so I thought that I had lmao, was just trying to cover volcarona's weaknesses, have pokemon that compliment each other, and have good coverage. But alright i could drop mega gyarados for mega gardevoire, change to a custap forretress build?
I would assume the latter.
Where are you seeing Autotomize? Metagross can't learn it, only Agility and Rock Polish
Adding on to this, Agility and Rock Polish have no difference outside of Agility having more PP which pretty much never comes into play.
Oh sorry, I mixed the two up. Thank you.
As the guy who wrote the analysis, I'll briefly explain why I chose rock polish > agility. I did so because rock polish is a TM move and is easier to obtain than agility in game (it requires a heart stone and going to the move relearner), and I know that a lot of people look for smog on sets to use on cartridge, so I made it as easy as possible to replicate the set.
There are no other reasons for it. Agility or Rock Polish both work fine and PP has absolutely no effect on how the set plays at all.
There are no other reasons for it. Agility or Rock Polish both work fine and PP has absolutely no effect on how the set plays at all.
BLACK KYUREM or TORNADUS THERIAN would be perfect for your Hyper Offense Team
mixed stallbreaker set, because your team can easily be counter by stall cores:Kyurem-Black @ Life Orb
Ability: Teravolt
EVs: 20 Atk / 252 SpA / 236 Spe
Mild Nature
- Ice Beam
- Earth Power
- Fusion Bolt
- Roost
And a Tornadus-T switch in for that famous DracoMeteor (Lati@s):Tornadus-Therian @ Assault Vest
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 132 HP / 160 SpA / 216 Spe
Timid Nature
- Hurricane
- Focus Blast
- Knock Off
- U-turn
- Status