Oh God, not another Wobbuffet discussion!

[Colonel M]

We've considered Deoxys-E (or Deoxys-S) to be unbanned from Ubers. I will admit that his insane movepool is scary, but it can still be taken down.

Anyways, to not drift from the subject: Wobbuffet. Ok, I faced this... I think 3 times now. First time was against Mario with Lasers, who didn't use it too bad but didn't get much out since I put Wobby to sleep and then paralyzed his incoming Scizor. Later down the match I could've won twice: If I used Hydro Pump on Kingdra, but I was stupid and accidentally clicked Signal Beam (against Heatran nevertheless) and if I Roosted with Gliscor, I could've won with an Earthquake. But, that was the first time I ever faced AGAINST him.

The next couple of times were more of a nightmare. One person, who was Light I think, figured out that my Gallade didn't have Night Slash, so his Wobbuffet just basically charged in and put my Gallade into KO range (and it was his Wobbuffet actually reasoned in my head to perhaps put Night Slash over Psycho Cut). Usually however I got the revenge-kills pretty easily, and after he did his job once, he sort of fell down quickly.

I will admit, he takes an assload of support in order to work. First, there has to be removal of Toxic Spikes on the field (Tentacruel), Wish-passing seriously helps (Blissey, Jirachi), and then Aromatherapy / Heal Bell (Blissey, Celebi). Pending on what Pokemon you use... there could already be 3 Pokemon that you know on the team. That is, at least, what I would do if I was using Wobbuffet in OU.

 

[Mario With Lasers]

As for Gengar: Shadow Ball doesn't OHKO. And WoW doesn't change the gameplan much. It goes:

Wobb Encores WoW.
Smeargle switches in, gets burned. (88%)
Smeargle Spores incoming Pokemon. (76%)
Smeargle Belly Drums. (14%)
Smeargle Baton Passes.

Burn just means Smeargle can't use Sub and Drum together, which is safer.

Also, unless you're randomly blowing yourself up because a Wobbuffet might be switching in, you're going to be Encored into SR or Gyro Ball before you can explode. Unless the first thing you do every time you bring Forry in is use Explosion, you're not getting the chance you want.

Hey hey, question:

What happens if the incoming pokémon after the second one (the one that was Spored) is faster than Smeargle? Does... he dies without passing the boost?

 

[Lee]

What happens if the incoming pokémon after the second one (the one that was Spored) is faster than Smeargle? Does... he dies without passing the boost?

Provided that he is faster than Smeargle +1 (409 speed IIRC) since the Salac will be activating either way, or has a priority attack not named Sucker Punch/Shadow Sneak. Or you could just y'know, switch to a phazer and blow him away.

is it now possible for Wobby and maybe even Deoxys-E to become OU even in Wifi status or just smogon?

Neither Deoxys or Wobbufet are OU by Smogon standards. For the time being, they are both ubers.

 

[Lou Cypher]

Then said poke comes in on Spore. If there is then a switch on the Drum, Smeargle just MIGHT activate a Salac Berry, giving a big Buzz Off to whatever just came in.

Damn, beaten by Lee.

 

[TheMaskedNitpicker]

Or, you know, the opponent sends in a sleep-absorber on the predicted Spore. That would work too. There are lots of ways to stop the setup.

EDIT: Hey, this doesn't help my position (that Wobbuffet isn't broken), but if it really is most effective as a setup helper, what about maxing its Speed and giving it Choice Scarf (271 Speed, I believe)? Wobbuffet would often get to Encore something before the opponent could switch moves. Is a fast Encore worth losing defenses and versatility?

 

[Amazing Ampharos]

Okay, there was a lot of controversy on the server about this, and I think a few points need addressing before arguments can really continue.

The Pokemon community is built on a continual assumption that the best Pokemon are the ones most used. We say the best legal Pokemon are "OU" for overused! People consider Tentacruel much better than they did at the start of DP not because it actually got any better but because it started to be used more. Used Pokemon are really the only ones who are a factor in the game at all. If no one used Infernape, it wouldn't change what he could do, but he would essentially not exist either way.

With Deoxys-e, we saw that he wasn't used much at all. Even factoring in the fact that he was unbanned halfway though January, he wasn't in the top 20. He was in OU, but he was more like Electivire than Garchomp in terms of how much of a part of the game he was. If we apply the previous logic to this, we can assume that he's probably good (the other similarly used Pokemon are good), but he's not the best. If he were the best OU Pokemon, he would have the most usage out of OU Pokemon. At the very least he would be in the top 10!

The argument presented against this is that there's an "unwritten rule" against using Deoxys-e. Essentially, TTS was arguing (with Curt's vigorous support) that there's a code of honor among top battlers that ensures they don't use certain unfair Pokemon. They "know" what is uber, and they won't use it because it doesn't help them get better, etc. Now, Colin and I both essentially cried bullshit on the whole thing, and we asserted that you're just playing poorly if you don't use the Pokemon that best help you win. I can't say I would generally take either of their opinions too seriously, but then VIL jumped in and essentially agreed with them about the "code of honor" existing. Okay, so let's actually take this seriously. Does smogon support "playing to win" whereby you only follow the rules of the game (basically the famous argument of David Sirlin), or do we want some vague "code of honor" that will supplement the written rules? I don't mean to be so negative about the other position, but my stance is clear and strongly opposed so I really can't help it. Please don't take it the wrong way. This is very important for where we go from here, and I fear we can't help but upset people with either path.

If we discard the position, we basically have to accept that usage indicates quality. That would suggest that Deoxys-e shouldn't be banned (unless we get new evidence later) and that whatever the stats show for Wobbuffet (no decision on him is final, don't panic!) will be followed. I support this position, and I know Obi supports it. I was under the impression that smogon as a whole supported it in their continual refusal to give special merit to those who use weak Pokemon against standards.

If we accept the position, it will pretty much make Shoddy Battle's statistics worthless, and it will, in fact, make using any sort of actual facts in an argument about Pokemon pretty pointless. It would make the only way to make rules to be to somehow discern an elite and to give them absolute authority which seems pretty unfairly disenfranchising to the average player. Even more, it would mean that Pokemon is ultimately not a top tier competitive game. Clearly what sirlin wrote DOES apply to games like competitive fighting games as well as to known real life great games such as chess; I don't see how you could argue otherwise. I can't comprehend how you could argue that the best competitive games can't be played by doing absolutely everything within the written rules of the game. However, there are plenty of games in which unwritten rules are essential. In Mario Party, it is often a good strategy to promise a friend you won't steal a star from him when he is at boo and later do it anyway, but no one actually does that because it's a pretty mean thing to do and Mario Party isn't serious enough to justify it. The number of cases of things in Mario Party being outside of acceptable is pretty huge; written rules could never cover it (nor would they be appropriate for such a game anyway). Is Pokemon like this? I really don't want to think it is, but what some people are arguing (and have argued in the past, now that I reflect on the old arguments about BP teams) suggests that it might be.

Given how incredibly controversial Wobbuffet has been, we probably won't hold to our initial plan of going for a full month. You can be pretty much assured that at midmonth we'll have some stats up to show just what Wobbuffet has been doing. Despite what some people think, we're not out to alienate players. The question is this: can we accept that what the statistics show? I am prepared to accept what happens if Wobbuffet shows himself to be broken (top 5, metagame highly centralized), but can we assume he's not uber if the stats don't suggest he is uber? Can we assume that if he's not being used that he's not good, and can we assume that if the metagame didn't centralize that he's not having a negative impact? Honestly, we can't go on in any way if this isn't settled; it seems to be the most fundamental point of argumentation in the debate when half of us didn't even think it was contentious.

 

[Raikou]

As soon as there is an actual announcement to all shoddy players that Wobbuffet use is allowed for testing purposes, and moveset changes are taken into consideration at the end of the month as well as the shift in Pokemon used, then yes we can accept statistics. Problem is, the only announcement about Wobbuffet on the ladder is scrolled off the screen when you log in and there are a lot of players turned off by the cheapness of it.

People do play to win but keep in mind this is Pokemon. There is no money at stake, it's not a professional sport, it's a game played for fun and Wobbuffet, unlike some other ubers who could be considered fun if not overpowering, is just not. It always has the same moveset and does the same shit every time and shifts the metagame for the worse. Blissey is currently considered the most boring but necessary Pokemon, and she's much more versatile and interesting than a dildo with shadow tag.

One of the things about battling real players instead of the CPU is they actually respond to you and switching is the most crucial part of the game. Without it, there would be no sense in battling real people over the CPU. Wobbuffet neutralizes that, and unlike Dugtrio and Magnezone his ability to do so is not limited. It wouldn't be so bad if they hadn't given it 4-8 turn encore this generation.

 

[rkatzam]

A lot of people aren't willing to accept Wobba as OU. Therefore, they refuse to use him or even apply so called "counters" for it in their team. So basically, end of the month statistics for Wobba will be somewhat useless, as they don't fully reflect the impact of Wobba on the OU metagame. This is exactly why a tourney is needed, just like in the case of Deoxys-E; people will focus more on using/countering that pokemon to see its true potential as an OU or Uber pokemon.

 

[Colonel M]

I did argue however that Deoxys-E is by no means a Pokemon that would perhaps last in OU, but however that was because that he does OHKO / 2HKO many Pokemon. People need to realize, however, that there still is a downfall to him. If it's a Choice-item user, consider yourself fucked to being with, as you're playing Deoxys-E stupidly, without a doubt in my mind. The other sets I do agree on... Expert Belt / Life Orb Deoxys-S is really nasty, and the Cosmic Power Deoxys-S doesn't fall easily if you give him the upper hand... and you lack a Dark / Bug / Ghost move for some odd reason. Toxic Spike support could kill that theory however... and Taunt prevents Blissey from using Toxic on Deoxys-E itself.

The fact that you can't switch in or out of Wobbuffet without the use of U-Turn, Baton Pass, and Shed Shell is nuts. Spiritomb can wall him, yes, but how many Spiritombs do you actually see, or better yet, how many people used him before Wobbuffet came into the spotlight? Ghosts prevent Wobbuffet's use of Counter, but only Spiritomb and Dusknoir really fight on the Physical side. Dark can be applied to the opposite way... and that actually can bring an advantage to Boahs, since they use Dark Pulse and the fact that there are Dark types that hit on the Special side, I'll admit not many, but there are some. But still, there are times that Wobbuffet CAN switch in safely and times that Wobbuffet can't. Leech Seed is a killer to Wobbuffet since he looses his precious HP, and Celebi can recover any attempts at Mirror Coat (and doesn't mind Encore too much). Since Wobbuffet is slower than a lot of Pokemon, Toxic works well too. Etcetra ecetra.

But just because I'm making these statements does not mean I support Wobbuffet in OU. I actually agree that it was a bit "rushed" to put him on the ladder (sorry Colin, but I have to agree on TTS on that subject), and the fact that it takes still very little skill to use is another reason for him to stay out. Think about it: there are stupid users of Wobbuffet (and Deoxys-S), yet that doesn't mean a person with half of a brain can't use Wobbuffet properly. I guess this is just me saying that I really hate Wobbuffet altogether. If it's accepted as an OU Pokemon however (like the fact that Deoxys-E will be for a little while or maybe permanantly on Smogon / Shoddy), I'll adjust. I may disagree, but by no means am I a complainer.

 

[Luck]

My two cents on the matter

The Bad
-The Stated problem with wobbufett it uncounterable by factyou can switch out and bring pokemon that counters it.

-Part two of problem is wobby extreme sturdy pokemon with encore which gives people time people free switches which is almost too lethal in this game


The Good

-If you don't attack wobby it can't kill you

-They are couple pokemon that kill it in one shot

How you deal with wobby

-Psuedo haze It can't trap with psuedohazer

-Status Burn it or Poison it or put it to sleep.Thunder wave is the least effective but even that pretty much cripples wobby

-Baton pass it can't trap a bp user

-Sacrifice pokemon-you hit wobby so hard that next pokemon no matter kills it or

-a.Pursuit poke after wobby beats a poke.If remember correctly mirror coat does not work dark but pursuit is psychical right?

b.Dugtrio traps and kills it


Ghost pokes -if remember correctly aren't effected by counter.The most common move shadowball is special right?

-Taunt wobby is complete useless against pokes with taunt

-Stat and Pray use a stat up move a Pray encore runs out before other poke can beat you

-Boom

Stall- It is least prefer method but some pokes with rest and non attacking move.Sometime person is stupid enough(or smart depending) avoid using using encore and just keeps on using mirror coat,counter and the last wobby move but eventually.Wobby is such bad shape after trying to stall out something that basically useless the rest of match.


I know D/P has more choice users but most poke either have a status move,psudeo hazer or hit really hard.Most pokemon players are not patient enough to deal with a wobbuffet on the other team.The last time i was active player of pokemon T-tar, Metagross, Weavile where common pokes and those pokes are fairly adept at beating wobby.It comes down to if you believe in sacrificing pokes to a win game(which is the only sure way beating wobby) or if you believe shouldn't have sacrifice any pokemon to win.Truth of the matter is most time wobby is far more valuable to its team than poke you sacrificed to beat it.Wobby is normal key poke to set up other pokes while you just lose a attacker.

 

[xcfrisco]

snip

I didnt use Deoxys at first for a couple of reasons
1.) It breaks my all-offense team that worked with speed numbers that was really successful on ladder. There was a sentimental bias on my side that prohibited me from using him.
2.) I ardently believed that he was going to get re-banned anyway, so I didnt want to use pokemon that wont be legal in 2 weeks, 2 months, etc.
3.)The code of honor

I had a discussion with someone else on Shoddy about Deoxys (i think it was jrrrr) on how Deoxys destroys all offense choice/life orb teams, and it just required me to reshape my idea about teambuilding. So I made a new team with Deoxys in mind and realized he really isnt so broken, but nonetheless, a very good pokemon. It just sucked that with all the new things to look out for in D/P that there was another threat added.

I'm not using Wobbuffet for all the reasons I've listed for Deoxys. I have Taunt Gyarados on my team and I still find Wobbuffet a huge pain to deal with. Like most good teams, mine relies on a synergy of key resistances used by all 6 members. No one on my team is Duggy weak, pursuit weak, and Forrettres packs EQ just for Magnezone. I will never lose a pokemon when I dont want to (well at least not intentionally, damn do I hate switching forrettress into fire moves). But now, thats equilibrium is shattered once again by Wobbuffet. I'm very liable to lose key members of my team to the Wobbtrio strategy. My Blissey dies? Fast special sweeper has a field day. I lose Foretress? Well there goes my normal/dragon resist, etc ,etc. And you know whats the worst part? I lose these pokemon for free because of Wobbuffet and his fantastic options. (Pokemon with insanely high HP that learns Counter/Mirror Coat with a trait that traps everything and a suped up encore thats guaranteed to last 4 turns? Holy shit yeah!)

I'm not gonna make a Wobbuffet team even though I know he's a damn good pokemon. And even when the statistics come out, for many of the reasons you've previously stated, they will be very skewed and probably invalid.

I think the biggest reason for this is because, unlike most other competitive games, no one really considers pokemon serious business. I play pokemon mostly because I'm good at it and it requires minimal time investment. There's fun hiding around there somewhere.

 

[Luck]

I didnt use Deoxys at first for a couple of reasons
1.) It breaks my all-offense team that worked with speed numbers that was really successful on ladder. There was a sentimental bias on my side that prohibited me from using him.
2.) I ardently believed that he was going to get re-banned anyway, so I didnt want to use pokemon that wont be legal in 2 weeks, 2 months, etc.
3.)The code of honor

I had a discussion with someone else on Shoddy about Deoxys (i think it was jrrrr) on how Deoxys destroys all offense choice/life orb teams, and it just required me to reshape my idea about teambuilding. So I made a new team with Deoxys in mind and realized he really isnt so broken, but nonetheless, a very good pokemon. It just sucked that with all the new things to look out for in D/P that there was another threat added.

I'm not using Wobbuffet for all the reasons I've listed for Deoxys. I have Taunt Gyarados on my team and I still find Wobbuffet a huge pain to deal with. Like most good teams, mine relies on a synergy of key resistances used by all 6 members. No one on my team is Duggy weak, pursuit weak, and Forrettres packs EQ just for Magnezone. I will never lose a pokemon when I dont want to (well at least not intentionally, damn do I hate switching forrettress into fire moves). But now, thats equilibrium is shattered once again by Wobbuffet. I'm very liable to lose key members of my team to the Wobbtrio strategy. My Blissey dies? Fast special sweeper has a field day. I lose Foretress? Well there goes my normal/dragon resist, etc ,etc. And you know whats the worst part? I lose these pokemon for free because of Wobbuffet and his fantastic options. (Pokemon with insanely high HP that learns Counter/Mirror Coat with a trait that traps everything and a suped up encore thats guaranteed to last 4 turns? Holy shit yeah!)

I'm not gonna make a Wobbuffet team even though I know he's a damn good pokemon. And even when the statistics come out, for many of the reasons you've previously stated, they will be very skewed and probably invalid.

I think the biggest reason for this is because, unlike most other competitive games, no one really considers pokemon serious business. I play pokemon mostly because I'm good at it and it requires minimal time investment. There's fun hiding around there somewhere.

I hate adjusting my team to fight electric poke let us ban electric poke.If you didn't have adjust your teams people would stop playing pokemon after a week.No team is perfect you always have weakness to something thats what makes the game so replayable

 

[Magmortified]

I hate adjusting my team to fight electric poke let us ban electric poke.If you didn't have adjust your teams people would stop playing pokemon after a week.

Because heaven knows you can just switch out for another Pokemon to counter that Electric Pokemon.

Wobbuffet scares people with the mere possibility of being on an opponents team. Constant fear of a Wobbuffet coming out and you trying to predict it (and then ending up having predicted wrong and get screwed by it) isn't exactly how I like my metagame. Wobbuffet scares my Raikou ;_;

EDIT:

-If you don't attack wobby it can't kill you

Then it Encores you and switches out for something that can regardless of what you do.

b.Dugtrio traps and kills it

Eh. You could predict a Counter and use Sucker Punch, but if Wobby Encores you it outstalls Sucker Punch and can then use Counter at will. In fact, Wobby pretty much has Dugtrio if it Encores, Earthquake doesn't kill it in the necessary two shots.

 

[Luck]

Because heaven knows you can just switch out for another Pokemon to counter that Electric Pokemon.

Wobbuffet scares people with the mere possibility of being on an opponents team. Constant fear of a Wobbuffet coming out and you trying to predict it (and then ending up having predicted wrong and get screwed by it) isn't exactly how I like my metagame. Wobbuffet scares my Raikou ;_;

The thing about wobbufett most of time you can make a person switch out wobby.Wobbufett is not true trap to because to be it most effective wobby itself has to switch out.

 

[xcfrisco]

I hate adjusting my team to fight electric poke let us ban electric poke.If you didn't have adjust your teams people would stop playing pokemon after a week.No team is perfect you always have weakness to something thats what makes the game so replayable

You can switch in your Special Wall or Ground poke to nullify the threat of said electric poke.

Show me a pokemon that can switch into Wobbuffett to stop what it does. Oh wait, you cant.

*Ninja edit, why did you even bother quoting my ENTIRE tl;dr post when you only had two lines to say about it? And look at your sig. By your definition, Wobbuffett has no counters.

 

[Magmortified]

The thing about wobbufett most of time you can make a person switch out wobby.Wobbufett is not true trap to because to be it most effective wobby itself has to switch out.

Mmhmm. Unfortunately, you can't predict when a Wobbuffet is going to switch out, mainly because Shadow Tag stays up to until the exact moment Wobby runs. So even if you could tell Wobby is switching out this turn, you can't switch out until next turn. Or I could have totally missed your point. =P

 

[Little Green Yoda]

I started trying out Wobby today. At first, I tried a generic Belly Pass team with Wobby, but I found out that making a good team based around that isn't that easy. It also seemed very gimmicky to me so I scrapped it and instead placed Wobby on one of my existing teams.

It's working fairly well. I've lost some games due to losing that one Pokemon I had prior to Wobby. I've annoyed my fair share of opponents with it. And even though I don't have much setup to gain from using Wobby, I'm loving the Encore + switch to Pursuit Metagross combo. It's really helpful for picking off things your team couldn't otherwise handle.

 

[scorchedsky]

Can you switch out on the turn that Wob switches if you are slower? I guess Wobb users could just go 0-speed IV and -nature to narrow that list down to TR Trapinch and Shuckle, maybe Dusknoir...

 

[backlot]

Can you switch out on the turn that Wob switches if you are slower? I guess Wobb users could just go 0-speed IV and -nature to narrow that list down to TR Trapinch and Shuckle, maybe Dusknoir...

no you cant. as long as wobb is in play it wont allow you the option to switch out.

 

[Dragontamer]

Okay, there was a lot of controversy on the server about this, and I think a few points need addressing before arguments can really continue.

The Pokemon community is built on a continual assumption that the best Pokemon are the ones most used. We say the best legal Pokemon are "OU" for overused! People consider Tentacruel much better than they did at the start of DP not because it actually got any better but because it started to be used more. Used Pokemon are really the only ones who are a factor in the game at all. If no one used Infernape, it wouldn't change what he could do, but he would essentially not exist either way.

This is not my interpretation of OU. OU is popularity by definition. "Power" is determined in other tiers, like BL and Uber. It is in these tiers where we ban a Pokemon regardless of its popularity. Blaziken is used less often than Froslass, Walrein, Hitmontop and more. But Blaziken is most definitely BL, far too powerful for the UU metagame, while the latter are UU.

UU is decided by power (through the BL tier), and popularity (through the OU tier). While Tentacruel is not an over-centralizing force in UU, the purpose of UU is to play with Pokemon that are typically not played. And it is on those grounds that Tentacruel is banned from UU. Further, OU is useful as a threat list and also serves as a reflection of the current metagame. Tentacruel serves its purpose on the OU list.

As for the deeper question on how OU vs Uber should be settled (popularity or whatever else there is...), I have no solid opinion. I don't really have an opinion of Wobbuffet, again, my only concern was the method of testing Wobbuffet and not Wobbuffet himself.

The argument presented against this is that there's an "unwritten rule" against using Deoxys-e. Essentially, TTS was arguing (with Curt's vigorous support) that there's a code of honor among top battlers that ensures they don't use certain unfair Pokemon. They "know" what is uber, and they won't use it because it doesn't help them get better, etc. Now, Colin and I both essentially cried bullshit on the whole thing, and we asserted that you're just playing poorly if you don't use the Pokemon that best help you win. I can't say I would generally take either of their opinions too seriously, but then VIL jumped in and essentially agreed with them about the "code of honor" existing. Okay, so let's actually take this seriously. Does smogon support "playing to win" whereby you only follow the rules of the game (basically the famous argument of David Sirlin), or do we want some vague "code of honor" that will supplement the written rules? I don't mean to be so negative about the other position, but my stance is clear and strongly opposed so I really can't help it. Please don't take it the wrong way. This is very important for where we go from here, and I fear we can't help but upset people with either path.

I don't know about the "Code of Honor" thing, but I do notice some very clearly UU teams on the Shoddybattle ladder on occasion. I also have some critisisms of the "weighted Ladder statistics", but I've just been too lazy to bring it up. I just didn't think it to be a big deal, but I might as well point it out now.

There is no statistical backing or mathematical sense to the "Weighted Useage Statistics". Compounding this problem is that the Weighted Statistics are based on a conservative rating as opposed to a mean rating (Colin probably knows my dislike of the conservative rating system by now)

The first fact to mention is the fact that it is possible to get a negative score. Yes, Colin prevents negative scores from affecting the weighted statistics, but the fact that there are negative scores to begin with tells me that a multiplicative relationship makes no sense.

Anyway, there is a beauty in Elo based systems that are not being taken advantage of. This is related to the mean rating of a player (which is why I feel that the mean is still the best indication of the player). The relationship is:

Probability of win == 1 / (10^(- (Ra-Rb)/400))

This is the raw Elo system. Glicko and Glicko2 add a bit of "uncertainty" with the Rating Deviation statistic, but for simplicity's sake I'll ignore that.

Anyway, a difference of 190.85 (or rounding up to 200) means that one player has a predicted ~75% chance of winning, and the lower ranked player has ~25% chance of winning. Therefore, a player who has a ranking 200 higher than other should have his pokemon weighted 3x more than the other player.

If Colin really wants to put RD into this calculation, then the Glicko formula for expected win is here in the original document:

Basically, I think the Weighted Statistic should be based on this expected value ( E (s|r, rj, RDj) ) in some form.

I would suggest just calculating the probability of win against some sort of default value (say, 1500), and then weighting the useage by the probability of win as opposed to some arbitrary value.

 

[Notty]

Here's a question that I've been wondering for awhile.

Putting aside for a moment the capabilities/weaknesses of Deoxys-S and Wobbuffet...

What is with the push to down these 'borderline' ubers when there's not much desire or call for it?

I mean, when Deoxys-S was allowed on the ladder, there was a ton of bitching about it. Now that Wobbuffet's being allowed, there's even more bitching and whining.

So, even if they *aren't* unbalancing for the metagame, when it's clear that a large chunk of the playerbase doesn't want it, given the amount of arguments against Wobbsy in this thread and the fact that the Deoxys-S poll back a week ago was basically a tie in those supporting versus those again.

I mean, of course there's the argument, "Well, a lot of people hate Blissey, and we don't shift her up to ubers." But then, it's fairly well known that Blissey fills an important niche in the OU metagame. So then, I'd have to ask what niche Wobbuffet and Deoxys-S fill that makes it so important that they be moved down?

Personally? I don't care either way. If they're allowed, I'll change my team to deal with it. It just seems like a few people are trying to force changes for no reason other than the fact that they can.

 

[Cathy]

Dragontamer, there is no problem with using the conservative rating estimate for the ranking. In fact, it is the standard way to do it. It's how Microsoft TrueSkill does it. If you used the mean, the top 100 would be mostly randoms because just winning a few matches against top players can get you into the top 100 with a high uncertainty. So, I would like if you would stop complaining about the CRE when it is in fact a sound way to rank that is even used by the TrueSkill system, which you held to be a shining example of a good rating system.

Unlike your complaints about the CRE, you are right the that weighted statistics are a bit shoddy, however. On the other hand, basing the weighting on the chance of winning against an imagined player is just as arbitrary as the current system, because it presupposes that it is desirable for weighting to he proportional to the chance of winning against this imagined player. The practical effect of such a weighting system is that a lot of people's usages would be worth an amount that is pretty negligible. If this is your goal, it might be simpler just to consider only the usages of the top 100 players, weighted equally.

I don't have much time at the moment, so I just used this month's battles so far for his (only 20,000 -- it's not been a busy month, due to my internet being shitty), rather than a full month which would have 180,000+ battles and take too long. To get an idea of how it would look using a method based on chance of winning against an imagined opponent, I prepared this for the battles so far in February:

1. Garchomp (137363)
2. Gengar (136283)
3. Blissey (102792)
4. Lucario (101350)
5. Bronzong (94744)
6. Gyarados (93220)
7. Heatran (88152)
8. Tyranitar (76985)
9. Infernape (70777)
10. Metagross (67269)

The number is the sum of the chance of each user winning against an opponent with a rating of 1500, then multiplied through by 100 to avoid decimals while maintaining some precision. (Wobbuffet is at #14, but it's too early in the month to conclude much from this.) Anyway, this list is not too different from the same list based on the other arbitrary weighting system, so I decided to try something a bit different (and also arbitrary). This is just straight up usages, but only counting players with a CRE > 1500 (everybody less is weighted zero):

1. Garchomp (1273 usages)
2. Gengar (1124 usages)
3. Bronzong (932 usages)
4. Lucario (819 usages)
5. Heatran (751 usages)
6. Gyarados (719 usages)
7. Infernape (615 usages)
8. Tyranitar (615 usages)
9. Blissey (563 usages)
10. Weavile (547 usages)

Fairly interesting.

For comparison, here is the method for weighting we've been using so far as applied to this month so far:

1. Garchomp (6172638 points)
2. Gengar (6072803 points)
3. Blissey (5297928 points)
4. Lucario (4666221 points)
5. Gyarados (4222849 points)
6. Bronzong (3938929 points)
7. Tyranitar (3741093 points)
8. Heatran (3697163 points)
9. Infernape (3411210 points)
10. Salamence (3341750 points)

This is not very different from the method based on chance of winning. (Metagross appears as #11 on this list.)

Just for fun, let's take a look at how players below the mean CRE (~800) fare. This is straight up usages, but only counting players with a CRE below 800:

1. Weavile (429 usages)
2. Gengar (357 usages)
3. Garchomp (293 usages)
4. Bronzong (269 usages)
5. Salamence (254 usages)
6. Heatran (253 usages)
7. Blissey (209 usages)
8. Lucario (204 usages)
9. Tyranitar (202 usages)
10. Swampert (198 usages)

So long as we choose a sensible system, the most used pokemon are not going to be that different. Maybe we'll switch them over to the method based on chance of winning, but it barely affects anything. A few pokemon switch places here and there.

As for your comments about OU, you are right, but OU doesn't need to reflect power for the following to be true. If something is not used frequently then we cannot really attribute any "centralisation" of the metagame to it. Also, if something is broken, we would expect that as the month proceeds, more people would be using it (after having been beaten by it, etc.), but instead with Deoxys-e we saw the opposite effect:

It's too early to say what we'll see for Wobbuffet but it will certainly provide some insight. So long as players are trying to win, rather than to satisfy a purely psychological code of honour, people should get tired of being beaten by Wobbuffet and start adding it to their teams (assuming he is broken). Of course, this alone doesn't necessarily mean that he's broken--just that he's popular for some reason (it could be that he's broken, or it could be because he looks cool). We'll also consider other statistics such as the number of viable pokemon, or any contraction in the number of viable moves.

 

[Dragontamer]

Dragontamer, there is no problem with using the conservative rating estimate for the ranking. In fact, it is the standard way to do it. It's how Microsoft TrueSkill does it. If you used the mean, the top 100 would be all randoms because just winning a few matches against top players can get you into the top 100 with a high uncertainty. So, I would like if you would stop complaining about the CRE when it is in fact a sound way to rank that is even used by the TrueSkill system, which you held to be a shining example of a good rating system.

If you wish to imply that I like conservative estimates because I like TrueSkill, then it is quite easy for me to point out just because I like a system doesn't mean I like every aspect of a system. TrueSkill is great because like Glicko, it has an estimation for the uncertainty in someone's rating, as well as an added benefit of ranking multiple players in a single game (Glicko is designed only for 2 players at a time, 1v1). I've always had a dislike of the Conservative Rating Estimate and that is all that matters.

But onto the more practical issue at hand, the actual statistics of weighted use, as these can most certainly be used as evidence in these test phases. The CRE has nothing to do with Wobbuffet or its Uber tests:

Unlike your complaints about the CRE, you are right the that weighted statistics are a bit shoddy, however. On the other hand, basing the weighting on the chance of winning against an imagined player is just as arbitrary as the current system, because it presupposes that it is desirable for weighting to he proportional to the chance of winning against this imagined player.

Arbitrary? Yes, ultimately everything comes down to being arbitrary. Even the Glicko algorithm arbitrarily assumes that people's skills are logistically distributed. The key is of course, determining which arbitrary method is better. And I have a feeling that converting from an arbitrary scale from 0 to 1500 to the realistic scale of win percentage is more rigorous and makes more sense conceptually.

The number is the sum of the chance of each user winning against an opponent with a rating of 1500, then multiplied through by 100 to avoid decimals while maintaining some precision. (Wobbuffet is at #14, but it's too early in the month to conclude much from this.) Anyway, this list is not too different from the same list based on the other arbitrary weighting system, so I decided to try something a bit different (and also arbitrary). This is just straight up usages, but only counting players with a CRE > 1500 (everybody less is weighted zero):

1. Garchomp (1273 usages)
2. Gengar (1124 usages)
3. Bronzong (932 usages)
4. Lucario (819 usages)
5. Heatran (751 usages)
6. Gyarados (719 usages)
7. Infernape (615 usages)
8. Tyranitar (615 usages)
9. Blissey (563 usages)
10. Weavile (547 usages)

Fairly interesting.

That is indeed very interesting. Considering that Blissey is so low on this chart, I'd expect this one to be the "most wrong" one out of all of them. Going from 1st on the unweighted charts to 9th place... especially when it is pretty much agreed that Blissey is a very powerful pokemon, and probably more useful than Bronzong. I'd say that from this it is clear that we can't just start counting from an arbitrary point in the metagame. Some form of weighting is best.

So long as we choose a sensible system, the most used pokemon are not going to be that different. Maybe we'll switch them over to the method based on chance of winning, but it barely affects anything. A few pokemon switch places here and there.

Of particular importance are the lower levels, and not the "most used" pokemon. Pokemon like Blissey are used some ~80% more often than Bronzong (both in the top 10). But when we get down to the OU / BL border, we see that Abomasnow is used only ~20% more than Tangrowth. I'm particularly interested in making sure these statistics are correct so that the UU metagame has the most reliable statistics to go on.

As for your comments about OU, you are right, but OU doesn't need to reflect power for the following to be true.

Meh, as I said, as far as this relevance is to OU, I'm neutral. I see a good stance on both sides, so I'd rather see everyone else's opinion on this before I make a definitive stance.

 

[DemonOfWrath]

My two cents on the matter
How you deal with wobby
-Psuedo haze It can't trap with psuedohazer
-Baton pass it can't trap a bp user
True on both of those.
-Status Burn it or Poison it or put it to sleep.Thunder wave is the least effective but even that pretty much cripples wobby
Encore, Safeguard, Smeargle
-Sacrifice pokemon-you hit wobby so hard that next pokemon no matter kills it or
Why would Wobb go against a pokemon that would hit it that hard?
-a.Pursuit poke after wobby beats a poke.If remember correctly mirror coat does not work dark but pursuit is psychical right?
Pursuit is physical, so you'd need a ghost pokemon to avoid it being reflected by Counter.
b.Dugtrio traps and kills it
You need a BP/U-Turn/Shed Shell/stupid opponent to get Dugtrio in against it.
Ghost pokes -if remember correctly aren't effected by counter.The most common move shadowball is special right?
Encore, Smeargle
-Taunt wobby is complete useless against pokes with taunt
Again true, but Wobb has no business being on the same planet as a pokemon with Taunt.
-Stat and Pray use a stat up move a Pray encore runs out before other poke can beat you
Encore wont run out before a Smeargle or something is fully setup and kills you.
-Boom
It takes quite a strong boom to guarantee an OHKO (max attack Bronzong can't guarantee it even if Wobb has neutral nature), so hitting it with a weak boom, while it will hurt it, may not cripple it if its in good shape depending on what booms.
Stall- It is least prefer method but some pokes with rest and non attacking move.Sometime person is stupid enough(or smart depending) avoid using using encore and just keeps on using mirror coat,counter and the last wobby move but eventually.Wobby is such bad shape after trying to stall out something that basically useless the rest of match.
That relies too much on your opponent being bad, and the first thing Wobb should do unless it's a 'Counter/Mirror Coat or die' situation is Encore.

I know that was posted a while ago and some of its already been covered but I really wanted to refute a lot of those points.

 

[SubVersion]

It's too early to say what we'll see for Wobbuffet but it will certainly provide some insight. So long as players are trying to win, rather than to satisfy a purely psychological code of honour, people should get tired of being beaten by Wobbuffet and start adding it to their teams (assuming he is broken).

I'd just like to ask, since you realistically can't do anything to stop players avoiding Wobbuffet for their own personal reasons, what possible weight can be given to any statistics collected? If people are purposefully avoiding using Wobbuffet (or Shoddy altogether), either because they firmly believe he's uber or because they take offense to being used as lab rats in an experiment, then I really don't think any merit can be given to the usage statistics. If people aren't using a Pokemon because they don't want to, and the stats show very low Wobbuffet usage, then they can't be used as a basis for deciding whether he's uber or not.

On the flip side, if Wobbuffet usage is very high, then that could be used as an argument for his uber-ness.

So what does this test achieve? Either we get unreliable results, or we get results that support the fact he's uber. It all depends on the public's reception of him, which let's face it, would have been slightly less volatile if more warning had been given and more discussion allowed beforehand; "btw I'm unbanning wobbuffet okay" doesn't really warm people up to testing him.