I don't have a dog in this Suspect Test fight, and I don't really have an opinion on Palafin being broken or not, but I want to dispell the myth that Palafin is "Great" for Balance.
Palafin doesn't fit on Balance. It's that simple. What slot does it take? Balance Teams are Balance because they are really formed up of very similar archetypes, usually a Mixed Wall Pivot, Special Wall, Physical Wall, Breaker, Speed Control, flexibility slot (usually a stopgap), with ofc some change. There can be a different defensive pivot, offensive Pokemon can share roles, you can do a lot with nuance. Checking the actual metagame > just vaguely fitting these roles, after all, to be clear.
But that is what a lot of Balance teams, across gens, kind of look like at their core even without trying. There are other roles that a Balance team will almost always have on top of these, because obviously if you really did just make a team with all of this shit without thinking it'd suck.
Here are some not-hard-but-advisory-rules for Balance teambuilding:
-Your Pivot should be there for scouting purposes, and often have Regen or be able to recover easily
-Your walls should be strong enough that, once you know the set you are dealing with, they're able to consistently deal with the threats from full, even when setup. This can be expressed in many different forms, sometimes it's just living enough to pivot into your speed control, sometimes it's an Unaware mon, Haze/Whirlwind, etc.
-Your speed control shouldn't be weak to Rocks, because you're gonna be switching into this guy a Lot
-Unless you're Bootspam/Superman-adjacent, you want reliable Hazard control
Again, these are not hard-fast rules, not claiming that, and checking the metagame > just fulfilling these roles like a checklist, I just believe that Balance teams naturally will gravitate towards a lot of these things when it has the ability to, because they are more likely to make for a consistent team.
The demonic HOME/DLC1 SWSH trio of Clef/Corv/Pex is a great example of a quintessential Balance core. Pex is your mixed pivot, also a Phaser, Clefable is your Special wall + utility, Corv is a second pivot and your physical wall (now generally mixed in Crown Tundra), and Defogger hazard control.
But even going far back enough as ADV OU you see similar teamstyle traits, Skarm/Bliss is this to a tee, Skarmory and Blissey covering both sides of the spectrum, usually a stopgap (usually Swampert), often a Zapdos which is a Baton Pass pivoter, then +2, could be stuff like Aerodactyl speed control, Gengar to fuck with Offense too while not outright being faster, etc.
One problem with Palafin is that no matter which role it tries to play, it's going to be unsatisfying. As a revenge killer, it leaves a lot to be desired, because it doesn't actually kill HO Pokemon very well without more-than-rocks chip, which is what matters.
Balance teams in most gens, playstyle wise, differentiate themselves from BO in the sense that BO teams are fine with chipping just to hit their endgame, sacking and just clicking attack for your next mon is fine. Most Balance Teams will fall apart with early KOs, and you only really want to start letting things die when you know they've done their job, which is usually in a much later state than other more offensively-inclined playstyles on the spectrum.
The problem with this is that while Iron Valiant takes 80% from CB Ada Palafin, that isn't actually good! That's bad, because there is a good chance you haven't even done 20% of chip to it, you are relying on hazards to get you there and it's Rock resistant. Now, is getting those hazards impossible? God no, not in SV OU, but is it something you want to consistently rely on?
252+ Atk Choice Band Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Iron Valiant: 207-244 (71.6 - 84.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
No!
Now, even if you do run this set, so what? You killed Iron Valiant, but now you also just have a guy who doesn't do much else. It's not like Jet Punch is actually a good check to a lot of the Offense of this tier. Part of what makes a Pokemon like Lokix more consistent with First Impression, is simple: Tinted Lens. This makes the type-reliant nature of a middling (for gen 9 lol) speed Pokemon from being debilitating as a speed control option. Of course, Iron Valiant is not exactly the best example for Lokix because quad-resist lol, but there are plenty of times where it does the job better.
Biggest problem, of course, is Rocks weakness, which is why I am not presenting Lokix as just a superior Pokemon, but more as a comparison point for a similar Pokemon opportunity for Balance, a Pokemon that rests around that Speed bracket that is mostly going to play around priority, and I feel that it at least has more targeted applications than Palafin into the metagame.
Now, what is one of the best Balance breakers? Ogerpon-Water. What is a speed control option that fucking dunks on Ogerpon-Water? The opposite of a choice-locked Palafin, that's for fucking sure.
This shit has a low % roll to OHKO 0 bulk Deoxys-Speed:
252+ Atk Choice Band Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Deoxys-Speed: 207-244 (85.8 - 101.2%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO
Darkrai with 0 Bulk lives:
252+ Atk Choice Band Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Darkrai: 207-244 (73.6 - 86.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
So what is the argument from here, for it as a revenge killer? We Tera Water on that thang? We just invest further? If so, you've created a Tera hog speed control that still doesn't actually check that much.
Because, of course, beyond just targets like those that are neutral, we also gotta remember that a lot of Offensive guys in this tier are Dragon Types! They don't give a shit about Jet Punch! Even Tera Water!
252+ Atk Choice Band Tera Water Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Dragapult: 159-188 (50.1 - 59.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Tera Water Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Roaring Moon: 167-197 (47.5 - 56.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
and idk
Tera Water Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. Water Absorb Ogerpon-Wellspring: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- possibly the worst move ever
So, to actually make this worthwhile, frankly Palafin would have to also be a great breaker, thus adding genuine role compression to the team. Now, to get this out of the way,
if you want a good wallbreaker Water-Type on Balance that is actually good at cleaning, you can go Ogerpon-Wellspring which has a great Swords Dance set that helps you win the Balance mirror (VERY IMPORTANT MIRROR!!! THE AMOUNT OF BALANCE TEAMS THAT DIE TO OTHER BALANCE TEAMS IS MORE THAN YOU'D EXPECT!!!) and yes, can still help you with revenge killing with its Tera if you really need, the SpDef boost is wonderful.
+1 132 SpA Quark Drive Iron Moth Sludge Wave vs. +1 0 HP / 4 SpD Tera Water Ogerpon-Wellspring-Tera: 204-240 (67.7 - 79.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
+2 252 SpA Darkrai Dark Pulse vs. +1 0 HP / 4 SpD Tera Water Ogerpon-Wellspring-Tera: 186-219 (61.7 - 72.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. +1 0 HP / 4 SpD Tera Water Ogerpon-Wellspring-Tera: 183-216 (60.7 - 71.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Tera Water Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tera Normal Dragonite: 262-310 (81.1 - 95.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
(no multiscale + tera'd out of resist)
Now, is this amazing? No! I'm not trying to argue that Wellspring is the best revenge killer, to be clear, I'm arguing it has a better defined niche for Balance. Its biggest problem is of course weak to hazards (which a CB Palafin would be, as well, so I think that is a moot point) and can genuinely give you so much more potential to outplay things.
Turns out having a second STAB and being faster, having arguably as good of offensive potential and not being choice locked is actually very good for a team structure that is all about flexibility and being able to bridge the gaps between the offensive and defensive spectrum!
Again, to be clear since this argument is so CB focused: If you aren't CB, this thing is a joke of a Balance Team revenge killer. It isn't doing shit, Jet Punch is simply not as powerful without CB and it needs unga bunga boosts to hit that. Is it bad STAB? No. Is it a bad option? No. Is Balance already strep to cover as much as it can in one slot, thus making for a good incentive structure to role-compress as much as possible, making Palafin being a middleground option between good wallbreaker Bulk Up set and actual revenge killer not actually desirable? Since it won't do either good enough? Yes.
Now, to put it into perspective, it has never, and I mean never been easier to role compress speed control into a Balance Team. Dragapult and Zamazenta are doing Lebron Numbers when it comes to keeping Balance teams alive against HO, because if your Balance team can survive one Speed Booster assault from a Pokemon, you are now a step away from either one of those two outright fucking up the entire team.
Dragapult's Shadow Ball literally just crushes most offensive Pokemon in the tier, it has U-Turn as a middleground (which is better than Palafin's Flip Turn, because way faster), and the only way HO can actually stop this guy from killing half the team is simply Speed Booster.
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 273-322 (90.6 - 106.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 0- SpD Iron Valiant: 276-325 (95.5 - 112.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
132 SpA Iron Moth Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragapult: 214-254 (67.5 - 80.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Iron Moth: 246-289 (81.7 - 96%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
+1 252+ SpA Protosynthesis Raging Bolt Thunderclap vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragapult: 161-189 (50.7 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Raging Bolt: 584-690 (149.3 - 176.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Darkrai: 288-340 (102.4 - 120.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
etc. etc. etc., you and I both know this guy is great for speed control, I don't need to really explain it. This is also just one set, of course, you can have disruptor sets with Wisp, Boot sets, you can trick people with other sets, bla bla bla.
Zamazenta also needs no introduction, but is of course far better at specifically Physical threats.
Anywho, Dragapult, Zamazenta, alone pose a great question for any Balance teambuilder: Why would I not just throw one of these onto every single team for the rest of time? They have excellent role compression. Dragapult is a great pivot, it's a great speed control, and it's a great cleaner- fuck it, if you fish for Shadow Ball drops, you can try to wallbreak sometimes lmao. Zamazenta is probably the best stopgap Pokemon I've ever seen with a straight-up "I switch into any physical attack a single time" ability, then it has a good setup set and it's great at stopping basically any Physical Attacker, can even have Rest sets to stay bulky, can even just go 4A Boots if you like.
If you're really in search of specifically priority, again, Lokix is right there! That guy can at least kill Ogerpon, a Pokemon that is probably one of the biggest threats to you team, and provides genuinely more utility with a dual-type, better pivoting, Sucker as a secondary STAB priority, etc. a;; while not caring nearly as much about what Tera type they turn into with the funny button.
These Pokemon already provide all the options you'd really want for speed control, with other Pokemon yes being viable for the role, but you're trying to argue that Palafin of all things is going to be Balance's savior against HO?
Now, let me get some things straight:
Yes, Palafin can/will be useful on Balance teams. It's Palafin. It has Uber-level stats just with no ability. Yes, Jet Punch will hit some targets and kill them real good. Yes, Palafin can do damage to defensive targets, and will do things. But you don't want a Pokemon that just does things, you want a Pokemon that has synergy for the comp, and here is the thing:
Palafin just doesn't synergize no matter which way you slice it. Because it's a monotype Water offensive threat that is physical oriented (easier to check by a lot), has no hazard immunities, isn't actually that fast, thus relying on the most obvious move click in the game, that also needs Tera Water + Adamant + CB to actually hit the targets you need, and then sometimes still fails.
Now, to reiterate my argument one last time, for Balance teams specifically:
If you use CB Palafin -> You do not actually kill targets other speed control can't, like Dragapult/Zama, without chip -> If the Booster mon has the chip you need, it's probably at a late enough stage in the game that they don't have Booster -> Dragapult/Zama can now clean it without priority -> Even if they can't, Lokix with Tilted Lens is going to be better at not losing to surprise Teras
If you use BU Palafin -> You aren't good at revenge killing -> Waterpon is a better physical Water at wallbreaking for your team -> Waterpon also ironically enough cooks Palafin lmao -> a lot more but idk I already have written a lot
I think Balance will overall be very indifferent to Palafin, when it comes to playing against it or using it. This is, yes, an early assessment and things can/will change, and I am not really the core SV OU audience. But I do think people should reconsider the argument that this is a boon to Balance, as I simply do not agree.