Most people are probably aware by now Terastalization is here to stay. Every couple of months or after something big has happen I like to
make a post yap about metagame stuff. I've planned to make one once the Beers & Buds tournament concludes discussing what happens there, but that will be sometime in January and there have been a few things on my mind lately...
These are not the three best mons in the tier, but they arguably have the most impact in the builder. I'd be remiss to not give Dragon Dance Zygarde an honourable mention. That is underselling it, but I've written a lot a lot about it and probably will later in this post anyways. For now the focus is on these three. The main reason I've decided to highlight these three is how easily they can just plow through a lot of otherwise good teams if they are not very conciously accounted for when building. This does apply to other mons, but their counterplay naturally finds itself on teams subconciously.
For example, Zacian-C is an excellent mon, but most non HO teams don't need to consider it all that much in the builder. Primal Groudon + Ground-immune check means you'll generally be alright enough. That ground-immune check is likely to be Giratina-O or Ho-Oh in most cases which would still be go-to options for hazard control even if Zacian-C was banned. Primal Kyogre is similar and is the reason why fat balances / semistalls that drop Primal Groudon near universally have at least two of Blissey, Eternatus, Ferrothorn, or Garganacl. Primal Groudon by itself makes playing around Primal Kyogre managable at worst for slower paced balance teams. Primal Groudon may not feel like a S+ mon on a game to game basis, but its ability to soft check nearly everything and hard check otherwise oppressing mons such as Zacian-C and Primal Kyogre free up so much space in the builder in a way that no other mon can.
Ultra Necrozma is the primary impetus for this post. I think I first mentioned feeling increasingly irritated with it presence sometime around May. At that time, I said that it was a bit silly due to the
constraints it imposes in the teambuilder. Since then, my stance has only strengthened and the realization that a couple of my fellow council members hold similar sentiments had a large influence in making this post. Adem and I hold similar views on Ultra Necrozma. Bob has implied that he at least dislikes the restrictions Ultra Necrozma poses in the teambuilder, but I am not sure whether he views it as banworthy or not. I do not know how the rest of the council feels, nor do I intend to speak for any of them. These are my views and do not interpret them as the council’s nor expect immediate tiering action.
The crux of the issue is precisely that – Ultra Necrozma’s impact in the builder. This does not present itself in-game as Ultra Necrozma is a threat that one can handwave away. One can keep up the offensive pressure to prevent it from having room to setup when running HO while Arceus or Marshadow can revenge kill it.
Any other playstyle though? You either have solid counterplay to it or you will likely lose. This leads to Ultra Necrozma existing in state of feast or famine. Consequently, it has pretty significant consistency issues as it forces its hard counterplay onto most teams and lacks the tools to circumvent it. Marshadow, Arceus-Dark, and Yveltal are fantastic mons regardless, but their ubiquity is driven by Ultra Necrozma and its lack of soft checks.
Sure some mons constitute a soft check on paper, but it doesn’t really work that way in practice. Primal Groudon might survive +1 Earthquake, but it is also a prime target for Ultra Necrozma to setup on and survives by the skin of its teeth while not KOing back. Dragon Dance Necrozma-DM has similar issues with Earthquake and has significant issues with mind games despite its 4x Psychic resit. Even Coil Zygarde gets OHKOed by +1 Light That Burns the Sky.
Marshadow, Arceus-Dark, and Yveltal are not mandatory for a good team. Plenty of good teams exist without any of them, but outside of HO they will nearly always have at least one mon with Tera Dark, primarily due to an inadequate supply of soft counterplay. The thing is, none of the mons that run Tera Dark even want to. The exception is Alomomola which rarely will ever want to tera anyways so really doesn’t care.
The most common Tera Dark user, Arceus-Fairy, runs it because it doesn’t need to tera often and Tera Dark maintains its Dark-type resistance to handling Yveltal and Arceus-Dark, a big reason for its use so it is low drawback. It would much rather be running Tera Poison or Water. The uncommon Tera Dark Eternatus finds itself in a similar boat. It doesn’t often want to tera to begin with so it can afford to tech Tera Dark if the team needs it since it can naturally check Ultra Necrozma with Dynamax Cannon.
The last common Tera Dark user, Ho-Oh, does not like using it at all. Other than some marginal benefits into Psyspam, it would much rather be running a different tera. Tera Dark means that Ho-Oh transitions from a decent at worst Marshadow / Zacian-C check to getting deleted by them. Sometimes though, you need to work with what you have. Ultimately, fitting adequate counterplay to these two is a hell of a lot easier than doing the same for Ultra Necrozma so it is a viable, yet uncommon option. Additionally, none of these mons actually switch into Ultra Necrozma safely. Sure it will probably Dragon Dance, but none are particularly keen to take even an unboosted Photon Geyser. Additionally, all of these mons are reliant on tera to actually check Ultra Necrozma or they just get blown up. This is a very different dynamic compared to Zacian-C which at least usually has to use tera itself. Speaking of, Zacian-C also deletes every mon mentioned so far.
Ubers has more stringent standards for what constitutes an unhealthy presence as the power level inherently results in a level of centralization that would be deemed unacceptable in other tiers. If one were to solely watch replays the notion that Ultra Necrozma would even be candidate for tiering is laughable. However, this is only due to the harsh restrictions it imposes in the teambuilder. The severity of these restrictions rises to a degree that tiering action should be considered.
Marshadow is a healthy type of broken. The word broken seems a tad strong, but when I think about what I’ll be writing in this section, broken is apt. I’m primarily talking about Choice Band Marshadow. Bulk Up is decent on the right team and AoA is a shade above mid. Even though Marshadium-Z has done some stuff in the tournament, I’m still not really a believer. Saying Marshadow is good is not some groundbreaking revelation. That it is S- despite its frailty and near total lack of defensive utility should speak for itself. The purpose of this is not to glaze Marshadow using every superlative that comes to mind, so lets get to it.
Upon asking your average player about which mons are amongst the best in the metagame, Marshadow frequently finds itself on the list, but is conspicuously absent when asked about the most oppressive. The usual suspects of Zacian-C, Zygarde, and to a lesser degree – Yveltal were all mentioned as issues plaguing the tier, but nary a whisper of Marshadow was something I found surprising.
Marshadow is not remotely banworthy, but it is something I’d consider significantly more oppressive than either Zygarde or Zacian-C. It is at worst good into every archetype except stall and psyspam. It does not take metagame knowledge to see why Marshadow is good. The speed on top of that infamous STAB combination augmented by high base power moves with strong priority in a tier containing plenty of Psychic-types.
As silly as Marshadow can be, this does come with some significant drawbacks which keep it quite balanced. Its choice lock means that it is often forced into a hit and run playstyle in the early- and mid-game. Life Orb sets do circumvent this, but the chip damage quickly puts Marshadow in range of the few attacks it can survive with its paper-thin bulk. It is also a significantly worse breaker and cleaner while being significantly more reliant on tera.
That Life Orb chip results in Marshadow having significant struggles against Calm Mind Arceus formes that its damage calcs would suggest it should be able to beat. Maintaining health to take that Precipice Blades, Dynamax Cannon, or Judgment late game plays a significant role in what makes Marshadow as scary as it is.
So how do you handle it? That depends on what sort of team you’re running, but part of the reason Arceus-Ground, Chi-Yu, and Eternatus have been picking up steam on HO is because they can take a hit and OHKO it back. Marshadow also loses most of its threat level if Webs are up which contributes to it being the strongest HO archetype as maintaining Webs cripples it.
Even if the metagame leans offensive, it isn’t HO dominant so most other teams are probably going to want some form of defensive counterplay. So, what does that look like? The list of traditional counters starts and ends at Coil Zygarde. It has the natural bulk to deal with Marshadow without wholly forfeiting its ability to check the other stuff it needs. Additionally, trading some extra health to let Marshadow steal a Coil boost and Glaring it will usually render Marshadow a non-factor for the rest of the game. Tera Fairy Garganacl counters Marshadow, but it must get that tera off as it is OHKOed by Low Kick.
As splashable as it can feel at times, Coil Zygarde is not something that fits on every or even most teams at this point. It is exploitable as its ever been and Tera Water is setup fodder for Dragon Dance Zygarde. Despite a small list of counters, there are fortunately a bevy of soft and hard Marshadow checks that naturally slot onto teams.
Usually this is going to consist of a Dark-type + some offensive or defensive check such as Ho-Oh or Eternatus, but the degree to which these mons are punished for switching into the wrong move relegates them to checks rather than counters. For example, Low Kick still 2HKOes even fully physically defensive Yveltal. As constraining as Marshadow can seem in the builder the patchwork approach of soft checks usually works well enough in game.
Over longer games Marshadow will likely eventually click the correct move, but any mistakes are harshly punishing. Marshadow may be able to survive a few important moves such as uninvested Precipice Blades, uninvested Judgment, or Dynamax Cannon, but after even a couple turns of Stealth Rock or poison via Toxic Spikes it finds itself in range of these attacks. In some games Marshadow’s health does not matter, in others it may find itself needing to preserve HP for late-game Calm Mind Arceus formes.
The choice lock is also pretty significant due how exploitable this can be. Dragon Dance Zygarde cannot switch-in, but it can take advantage and come in after a KO as even Tera Ghost Poltergeist does not OHKO. Furthermore, its bulk means Marshadow can’t simply switch out and Shadow Sneak later without a ton of chip as Shadow Sneak does not even break Zygarde-C’s Substitute without Tera Ghost. Wallbreaker Eternatus has a similar dynamic and a Poltergeist immunity to boot.
At preview it might seem like Marshadow is going to come in and claim half the team, but the degree to which any mistakes are punished heavily limits what it can do. Furthermore, the Primal Groudon that is on almost every BO and balance team can always trade in a pinch if it really needs to. The fat balance teams that drop Primal Groudon will often have Garganacl or something like Alomomola that can pivot in a few times without being forced to Wish. In a lot of ways Marshadow feels like the offensive equivalent of Coil Zygarde or Ho-Oh. Strong, but fair, and reasonable to deal with if addressed in the builder.
Since Xerneas’s ban, Life Orb Yveltal has taken the mantle arguably been the most influential mon in the tier in battle and in the builder. The degree to which Yveltal has warped the metagame around itself is inescapable, to the point where two respondents requested it be considered to tiering action – resulting a three-way tie with Ultra Necrozma and Adem for the most write-ins. Personally, I’m there yet. If there is an argument for banning Yveltal, it likely stems from it being too oppressive on Sticky Web teams. Furthermore, Yveltal is the root cause of many aspects of this metagame that people dislike.
Perhaps the most obvious way Yveltal has centralized the tier around itself is the impact it has had on the Arceus metagame. Prior to the Xerneas ban the standard support Arceus ran a Bold Nature and 307 Speed. This spread is facing extinction almost solely due to the degree it is taken advantage of by Yveltal as even Arceus-Fairy, in theory a counter, will eventually succumb.
Being outsped and being denied access to Recover via Taunt forced players to adapt and Timid with investment to outspeed Yveltal (usually Chi-Yu) as well has since become the bare minimum. The thing is…even the obscene bulk courtesy of being a stat stick isn’t enough to reliably switch into Life Orb Yveltal long-term. Without some (248 / 52 SpD) investment, Arceus formes are not long-term switch-ins as Oblivion Wing does enough damage to force a Recover, especially with any hazard up.
So what is actually required to be a consistent defensive switch-in? Well we don’t have any real defensive Steel-types, but Dark-type moves are what you need to be able to switch into anyways. The mon also has to outspeed Yveltal and meaningfully threaten it in return or at least Toxic it while having recovery. That outspeeding part is pretty important as against non HO Yveltal it will need to switch in more than once. Fezandipiti for example switches in, will likely beat it 1v1, but because it gets locked out of Roost by Taunt it is relegated to a soft check.
So what options do we have? Arceus-Fairy and Calm Mind Arceus-Dark…and uh…SpD Tera Fairy Eternatus sorta. This is why defensive Arceus-Ground sets have nearly vanished. Defensive Arceus-Dark can 1v1 it, but it really wants a Bold Nature and isn’t keen to use almost all of its Recovers to do so. When a mon has such limited switchins it is so much easier to run said switch-ins, especially when they can do more than just answer one mon. Otherwise we’d still be seeing fat balances run Magearna.
A huge part of the issue is a lot of mons that can trade or soft check Yveltal do not switch in. Defensive Primal Groudon may OHKO with Overheat (75% of the time), but are you really switching that it? Ho-Oh finds itself in a similar conundrum due to Knock Off. From experience, about the only mon that can switch in and happily trade is defensive Primal Kyogre. That is also part of what makes it so good, trading v otherwise annoying mons in poor matchups. Yveltal does have plenty of offensive counterplay, but it better not be weak to Sucker Punch. Even Zacian-C has to fear the trending Tera Fire Heat Wave that has become commonish on webs.
Notably, this is the first time tera was mentioned. While it is a great tera user, it often doesn’t need it and although those Tera Dark calcs are eye-watering, I find it incredibly overrated. Most of the benefits come from the increased power of Sucker Punch which I find to be a bit too situational and inherently inconsistent due to the nature of the mind games involved. The defensive utility against Ultra Necrozma is nice, but again…mind games and +1 Stone Edge still does 55 so it better be healthy and it is still a roll to OHKO.
As mentioned, Tera Fire Yveltal has picked up amongst tournament players after being popular on the ladder for a while – it isn’t all tomfoolery. It may be webs exclusive, but Yveltal is nigh mandatory on webs at this point and Tera Fire plays a pretty big role in keeping them up due to stuffing defensive Ho-Oh + support Arceus-Fairy structures and a big reason why they’ve fallen out of favour. It is another one of those punishers of passivity that I quite like even if it effortlessly goobed me when it started popping up. Switching to offensive Ho-Oh made it quite manageable. Ho-Oh truly is the GOAT.
As for why Yveltal is maybe banworthy on webs…it is great at keeping the webs up while having a fantastic speed tier to abuse webs. Webs are essentially going to make Yveltal outpace your entire team unless you have boots Eternatus. It isn’t pretty but will win the trade and is part of why I prefer boots on defensive Eternatus over Leftovers. If using Yveltal outside of HO I’m quite partial to Tera Flying or Poison.
To wrap this up, at the beginning I said Yveltal is a big driver of things people don’t like. All of the stuff listed as good counterplay to Yveltal loses to Zacian-C. The Bold Arceus formes that Yveltal has caused to go extinct? They were passable Marshadow switch-ins and were 3HKOed by +1 Tera Ground Thousand Arrows. A big reason to use Dragon Dance Zygarde is because it does take advantage of Yveltal offensively if it boosts up or is boosted as it comes in. Dark Pulse doesn’t OHKO and Zygarde can get that second boost, OHKO Yveltal back and remain out of priority range. Dragon Tail’s disruption also makes it much easier to remove webs.
Throughout writing this I’ve gone damn, maybe Yveltal really is worthy of a suspect test. At the same time, a through point is that Zacian-C beats most of the defensive counterplay to the stuff I’ve talked about. I’m on the fence about Zacian-C as I find it more annoying than banworthy. There was other stuff I wanted to talk about such as Fezandipiti, Zarude, Zygarde, and some Primal Groudon sets I’ve been enjoying recently, but this long enough already. Maybe I'll make another post discussing that stuff in a few weeks, but its more likely that will happen after the tournament is over.
tl;dr: Ban Shadow Tag. Ban Ultra Necrozma. Maybe ban Zacian-C. R8 is still very much missed.
Moody was also brought up, and while it's really only used by
: Yveltal has been brought up multiple times as a concern, and frankly it's not too surprising, Yveltal's mixed offenses and utility results in every team requiring a mixed wall to handle it, in particular also wanting to be faster to avoid being immediately Taunted or risking Dark Pulse flinches, or in other words besides Primal Groudon, at least one of Eternatus, an Arceus forme, or Primal Kyogre. Ho-Oh would also count if it didn't like coming into Knock Off as then it's forced to Terastallize to remain as a reliable Defogger.
Zacian-C uses that move, so at best it's an ineffective way of tackling the problem, and at worst it's pushing general tiering policy as by then it'd be easier to argue for a 
G-Darmanitan isn't freed into NDOU by banning Gorilla Tactics, or how 
Tatsugiri is banned in DOU over banning Commander.
Deoxys-A uses Tera Blast as well, yeah, but it's not in a manner to overwhelm its otherwise reliable counterplay. it already tends to run Shadow Ball, and Tera Blast merely enables it to follow up with a strong STAB while "ignoring" the stat drop of Psycho Boost. Meanwhile 
Primal Groudon), meaning that this seems more like a biased argument than a logical one, especially as 
Ho-Oh, 
Zygarde, 
Alomomola, 
Pheromosa and 
Ditto. One could argue that 
Necrozma-DM. While Smogon treats 
@ Life Orb 
+1 252+ Atk Life Orb Stakataka Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Kyogre-Primal: 383-452 (112.3 - 132.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Stakataka Gyro Ball (150 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eternatus: 368-434 (87.4 - 103%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
D --> C-
Ferrothorn is a solid defensive wall, which lets it patch up some holes Primal Groudon would otherwise fill, and its hazard support really helps Groudon out. In addition, it counters Primal Kyogre, a pokemon that many teams partially rely on Primal Groudon to check. In return, Grouodn handles many threats Ferrothorn struggles against, such as Marshadow, Eternatus, and Zacian.
Arceus-Fairy, 
Fezandipiti, and defensive 
Flutter Mane or 