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Multifaction Recruitment Mafia - Night 13 (Deadline: 17/01 10:00pm GMT/5:00pm EST)

hey all. i'm a little bored and in the interest of stirring up some discourse i'm working on a psychological profile of our dear host imperfectluck. what i am most interested in is finding out who the faction leaders are (alongside becoming friends with SNORLAX).

this is mostly just for fun so please don't kill me! you can always pay for my silence with uhh i guess threats work i have a mild nature.

now where do we start with our analysis? this is a psychological profile because we want to think about who ipl selected for our initial starters. first off, I'm ruling out the rand option for the starters. this is because of the probability that someone ipl (or perhaps nuxl, who seems to be a cohost) doesn't know might get picked. while i don't think a faction can be really set behind by poor starting leadership in a game like this, there's no doubt in my mind for a game to be successful you want a starter who is going to put in the time to make decisions and negotiate and do all the great things circus mafia is known for. imagine picking someone you don't know and they totally flop. not that i think anyone in this game would do that. but the risk is a lot higher vs someone ipl has known and can gauge their ability.

this rules out a large number of people. so let's talk about who we think has >avg odds of being selected

old people but specifically those who played in the original viva la mafia
what does imperfectluck have in common with the people in this game? that's right, they are both (with all due respect) old. old has a wide ranging amount of meanings. what is "old" to you may not be "old" to me or most importantly, to ipl. so let's look at this objectively. who played the original viva with ipl and is also in this game?

mekkah
jumpluff
gmax
shade
lightwolf
billymills
bass
pidge
lonelyness
da letter el
dak

this is a group of very experienced players. we also haven't seen these people in quite some time, which suggests that they would be more likely to get a prominent role. I'm guessing ipl didn't ask people to play so they could get vanilla town :) so actually i would place the odds that all 3 recruiters may come from this list.

now the downside to the old viva people theory is that what do old people have a lot of? that's right, responsibilities. and responsibilities = less time to be playing mafia on smogon.com. therefore we have to be careful in assuming that many of the people in this above list currently have the time and willpower to devote large swaths of time to winning this game. they may actually want a lowkey role.

secondary old people
this is a very small group of other similar "old" people. to be honest, I am hesitant about including this section because I believe the overlap between some of these people and ipl is not much. BUT given the new information we have on sam below, I feel it would not be prudent to rule these people out quite yet.

ditto
yeti
sam
amy
ag
lrr
zorbees

new people
now wait a second jalmont, didn't you say before ipl would probably pick someone who's ability he knows? you are correct. but we also need to be open to the possibility that ipl was impressed in the couple of games he played this year prior to this year. for me there's only a few people this might apply to.

duskfall98 aka tommy
celever

unclesam
new information has come to light regarding unclesam publicly claiming recruiter. do I believe unclesam? i'm actually fairly suspicious. we can easily imagine a world where freelancer sam gets all this info, gets recruited, and all of a sudden that team has a huge info advantage that can potentially ride to the end if the deception isn't revealed.

on the other hand, there's strong reasons why a recruiter might public reveal at this stage of the game. we can imagine that there is a powerful first mover advantage by revealing and gaining info that would otherwise be unobtainable without claiming. while claiming puts a target on sam's back, for me i would expect sam to gain more info than he would have otherwise, which definitely seems like a worthwhile tradeoff, albeit with the risk of your game ending exceedingly early.

if Sam is a recruiter, that hurts the theory that 3 recruiters come from the "old" category. in that case i would swing for the theory that we have 1 of each category. so i would expect 1 person from the original viva, and 1 of the new people that impressed ipl recently. that said, i would also not be surprised if it was sam and then 2 original viva players.

ALAKAZAM
okay, obviously alakazam is not a recruiter. but I have heard some info that suggests ALAKAZAM may be a puzzle piece that could help solve the puzzle that i have presented. note that my search for ALAKAZAM and SNORLAX is not meant in an ominous or malicious or threatening way. I believe we both have things to offer each other in a mutually beneficial partnership.

very interested in hearing thoughts from you all. I welcome any and all communication including if you need help using your action or you want some advice on who to recruit. let's chat!!!
 
People are always talking. But... what happens if the talk ISN'T cheap. And It Is What It Is. Well, what I mean by this is, Clouds, man, I wouldn't want to be in his shoes after this. :mad:

**TREESTUMP**
 
JALMONT said:
hey all. i'm a little bored and in the interest of stirring up some discourse i'm working on a psychological profile of our dear host imperfectluck. what i am most interested in is finding out who the faction leaders are (alongside becoming friends with SNORLAX).

this is mostly just for fun so please don't kill me! you can always pay for my silence with uhh i guess threats work i have a mild nature.

now where do we start with our analysis? this is a psychological profile because we want to think about who ipl selected for our initial starters. first off, I'm ruling out the rand option for the starters. this is because of the probability that someone ipl (or perhaps nuxl, who seems to be a cohost) doesn't know might get picked. while i don't think a faction can be really set behind by poor starting leadership in a game like this, there's no doubt in my mind for a game to be successful you want a starter who is going to put in the time to make decisions and negotiate and do all the great things circus mafia is known for. imagine picking someone you don't know and they totally flop. not that i think anyone in this game would do that. but the risk is a lot higher vs someone ipl has known and can gauge their ability.

this rules out a large number of people. so let's talk about who we think has >avg odds of being selected

old people but specifically those who played in the original viva la mafia
what does imperfectluck have in common with the people in this game? that's right, they are both (with all due respect) old. old has a wide ranging amount of meanings. what is "old" to you may not be "old" to me or most importantly, to ipl. so let's look at this objectively. who played the original viva with ipl and is also in this game?

mekkah
jumpluff
gmax
shade
lightwolf
billymills
bass
pidge
lonelyness
da letter el
dak

this is a group of very experienced players. we also haven't seen these people in quite some time, which suggests that they would be more likely to get a prominent role. I'm guessing ipl didn't ask people to play so they could get vanilla town :) so actually i would place the odds that all 3 recruiters may come from this list.

now the downside to the old viva people theory is that what do old people have a lot of? that's right, responsibilities. and responsibilities = less time to be playing mafia on smogon.com. therefore we have to be careful in assuming that many of the people in this above list currently have the time and willpower to devote large swaths of time to winning this game. they may actually want a lowkey role.

secondary old people
this is a very small group of other similar "old" people. to be honest, I am hesitant about including this section because I believe the overlap between some of these people and ipl is not much. BUT given the new information we have on sam below, I feel it would not be prudent to rule these people out quite yet.

ditto
yeti
sam
amy
ag
lrr
zorbees

new people
now wait a second jalmont, didn't you say before ipl would probably pick someone who's ability he knows? you are correct. but we also need to be open to the possibility that ipl was impressed in the couple of games he played this year prior to this year. for me there's only a few people this might apply to.

duskfall98 aka tommy
celever

unclesam
new information has come to light regarding unclesam publicly claiming recruiter. do I believe unclesam? i'm actually fairly suspicious. we can easily imagine a world where freelancer sam gets all this info, gets recruited, and all of a sudden that team has a huge info advantage that can potentially ride to the end if the deception isn't revealed.

on the other hand, there's strong reasons why a recruiter might public reveal at this stage of the game. we can imagine that there is a powerful first mover advantage by revealing and gaining info that would otherwise be unobtainable without claiming. while claiming puts a target on sam's back, for me i would expect sam to gain more info than he would have otherwise, which definitely seems like a worthwhile tradeoff, albeit with the risk of your game ending exceedingly early.

if Sam is a recruiter, that hurts the theory that 3 recruiters come from the "old" category. in that case i would swing for the theory that we have 1 of each category. so i would expect 1 person from the original viva, and 1 of the new people that impressed ipl recently. that said, i would also not be surprised if it was sam and then 2 original viva players.

ALAKAZAM
okay, obviously alakazam is not a recruiter. but I have heard some info that suggests ALAKAZAM may be a puzzle piece that could help solve the puzzle that i have presented. note that my search for ALAKAZAM and SNORLAX is not meant in an ominous or malicious or threatening way. I believe we both have things to offer each other in a mutually beneficial partnership.

very interested in hearing thoughts from you all. I welcome any and all communication including if you need help using your action or you want some advice on who to recruit. let's chat!!!
Click to expand...

ipl when he picked recruiters from people who volunteered:
 
Agape said:
Reposting this from signups thread:

Everyone please join Discord and if your nick there is different than your username here, then please edit your server nick on Discord to include your Smogon name.

First couple of cycles will be boring for unrecruited people. Let's spice this up a bit!

Assuming I won't get a recruiter role I'll coordinate the unrecruited people in a decentralized fashion. This will be opt-in and not divulge any of your info to me. Those of you who opt-in by PMing me on the forums or DMing me on Discord during the first cycle will receive a suggested list of targets for the second cycle. I will send everyone broad, role-agnostic instructions like "If you are inspector, target X. If you are roleblocker, target Y." And so on; everyone gets a broad list of possible targets. The targets will be different for everyone to prevent overlap. Offensive abilities will be directed at people who don't have opted in. This might lead to lucky hits on early recruits.

I will set up an anonymous Google Form for people to report their night actions. The replies will be on a public read-only spreadsheet. I will prune away results that don't match with the targets I've given to people.

Me being a public figure like this discourages recruiters from targeting me early due to the risk of double-targeting. However, it is likely that I'll be targeted cycle 3 or 4. If I survive past that you should assume I have been recruited. If that is the case, I will use the contacts I have acquired for the benefit of my faction and coordinate any unrecruited people at that point to become part of my team.

So, here's what I'd like you to do if you want a more interesting start to your game:
- Message me saying that you're interested in this coordination. Target whoever you want on the first cycle, but I heartily suggest random.org to minimize overlap.
- Don't give any information to recruiters, none at all. Give them a cold shoulder. Your information is valuable.
- Work with the other unrecruited people in this decentralized way from cycle 2 onwards and only after cycle 4 when the dust begins to settle, start contacting established recruiters.

I have enough opt-ins already to name-eliminate a bit. If you are a recruiter, you can DM me a list of aliases. I'll halve the list for you when N1 begins to remove potential overlap with other recruiters who do the same. For N1 I'll coordinate targets to the opt-in unrecruited people and on D2 I'll put up the public sheet for results.
Click to expand...
Please shut up
 
LightWolf said:
My fellow non-Americans! Let us rise up and eliminate those who become most active at 3 AM-6 AM for us so the host is forced to move update times to UTC. (or at least put both times next to the deadline)
Click to expand...
download (19).jpeg
 
i have decided that as freelancers cannot reject recruitment, any heavy info sharing freelancer alliance will not work - except for those at the top of the pyramid with the key 2 the sheet. once that sheet is full the rest of u freelancers are useless

instead freelancers should unite and help destroy 1 team early, so then we basically have a 1/2 chance of being recruited to the good team instead of 1/3. once we do that, voting power will be key. the remaining freelancers can act as swing votes to stop the game ending tooo early before they can be rec'd

any likeminded teams or freelancers hit me up
 
shade said:
i have decided that as freelancers cannot reject recruitment, any heavy info sharing freelancer alliance will not work - except for those at the top of the pyramid with the key 2 the sheet. once that sheet is full the rest of u freelancers are useless

instead freelancers should unite and help destroy 1 team early, so then we basically have a 1/2 chance of being recruited to the good team instead of 1/3. once we do that, voting power will be key. the remaining freelancers can act as swing votes to stop the game ending tooo early before they can be rec'd

any likeminded teams or freelancers hit me up
Click to expand...
Okay but what if they all just killed each other.
 
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