I think that you're working off Hypnosis's old accuracy of 60% to obtain 36%. Now that Hypnosis is 70% accurate, the chance of Hypnosis hitting twice in a row would be 49%. However, this is irrelevant because moves reflected by Magic Coat only make one accuracy check, not two.
I have no idea whose accuracy and evasion modifiers are used to conduct the single accuracy check, but if I had to guess, my money's on the user of Magic Coat using the reflected move against the user of Hypnosis (or other status move) because the message displayed during a missed Hypnosis is, "PORYGON2's attack missed!" not, "GENGAR's attack missed!"
My tests were done in-game, of course. I make no guarantees about how it works on Shoddy.
EDIT: On a personal note, as a user of Magic Coat, I find that my opponent will often attempt to status me again after a miss (even if they know what the move does), thinking that I'll use a different move. Then it all comes down to good old-fashioned prediction. And really, isn't that what Pokémon's all about?
Masked Nitpicker...away!