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FEDS VS SMUGGLERS DAYNIGHT 5
- Thread starter internet
- Start date
Congratulations!
Where the fuck is Amsterdam
does this take into account Smogon Town read accuracy
hal's math doesn't take into account humanity at all
Yes
If the first 4 scumreads are town (0% read accuracy), eliminating 4 people and making the rand 4/10 instead of 4/14 must be worse
We could assign a percentage for Smogon read accuracy and calculate optimal play from there, but we might also have to take into account standard deviation if Smogon Town is worse than normal (in which case randing could be better than trying to play optimally and performing below expectations)
^ thoughts from a guy who took high school stats
We could assign a percentage for Smogon read accuracy and calculate optimal play from there, but we might also have to take into account standard deviation if Smogon Town is worse than normal (in which case randing could be better than trying to play optimally and performing below expectations)
^ thoughts from a guy who took high school stats
Nobody asked why but I’ll tell you:
We had a PTCG pocket party for the mini expansion
Me and my friend had 30 packs each saved up, some others had like 10 or so
We ripped them all. For each pack that was opened, you called a color beforehand (eg fire water grass). If your color doesn’t show up in the 5 card pack you take a shot of soju
For every 2 star and above pulled, everyone takes a shot of tequila
And then you could also name a specific card and if it shows up in a pack then everyone else takes a shot of tequila
In retrospect I heavily underestimated how much drinking this was and now I’m just thinking that someone should make it illegal to be this hungover on a Wednesday
We had a PTCG pocket party for the mini expansion
Me and my friend had 30 packs each saved up, some others had like 10 or so
We ripped them all. For each pack that was opened, you called a color beforehand (eg fire water grass). If your color doesn’t show up in the 5 card pack you take a shot of soju
For every 2 star and above pulled, everyone takes a shot of tequila
And then you could also name a specific card and if it shows up in a pack then everyone else takes a shot of tequila
In retrospect I heavily underestimated how much drinking this was and now I’m just thinking that someone should make it illegal to be this hungover on a Wednesday
All right, listen here:
a lot of people should have ran simulations
How do you account for the accuracy of people’s scum reads?
Surely we could run some simulations to find out mathematically how smogtown can improve their read accuracy
of course he has he isn't even DbD right now he's the goddamn batman
I haven’t done the math but intuitively I think it must be the case that you choose whatever group of people you have reasonable confidence in are scum, and then randomize outside of that
The randomization is very important because it is what prevents scum from being able to get two on the same person
I do think no talking is best since the scum chance of victory scales almost entirely with how many investigates they’re able to get every cycle