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Metagame BSS REGULATION E USAGE STATS PREDICTION CONTEST (won by: Atr)

DragonWhale

DragonWhale

It's not a misplay, it's RNG manipulation
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BSS REGULATION E USAGE STATS PREDICTION CONTEST​

With the addition of 100 new Pokemon in the Teal Mask DLC, the BSS metagame will enter a new ruleset with Regulation E! How good are you at predicting metagame trends? Find out here in the second Usage Stats Prediction Contest! First iteration can be found here

How to play:
Post down below your predictions of what you think will be the top 10 Pokemon in the usage stats at the end of Season 11 (ends October 31), the first season of Regulation E!

Prize:
A Discord Role in the BSS server

Posting format:
Code: 
Discord Name (with # if applicable)
1. pokemon name (note that formes are counted separately e.g. Goodra-Hisui, Urshifu-Rapid-Strike, but Ogerpon does not count as a separate forme)
2. pokemon name
...
10. pokemon name

Point system:
  • +1 for each Pokemon that you guessed being in the top 10
  • An additional +1 for each Pokemon that you matched the usage rank
  • -1 for each Pokemon that you guessed being outside of the top 20
  • Tiebreaker will be the sum of the rank difference of the 10 Pokemon
Deadline: the start of Season 11 (October 1). You can edit your submissions until then, but after the deadline the thread will be locked.

Once the season ends in a month, we will tally up the results and determine the winner! Happy posting!
 
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aldrichyan
Flutter Mane
Dragonite
Chien Pao
Urshifu RS
Gholdengo
Heatran
Iron Bundle
Ogerpon Water
Landorus Therian
Ursaluna Blood Moon
 
Reggz13
Dragonite
Fluttermane
Gholdengo
Ogerpon
Landorus Therian
Urshifu rs
Iron bundle
Chien pao
Ting lu
Baxcalibur
 
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dragonwhale
1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Chien-Pao
4. Urshifu-RS
5. Gholdengo
6. Ogerpon
7. Iron Bundle
8. Ting-Lu
9. Ursaluna-BM
10. Gliscor
 
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DerpySuX
1 - Dragonite
2 - Flutter Mane
3 - Urshifu-R
4 - Chien-Pao
5 - Ogerpon-Hearthflame
6 - Ursaluna-Bloodmoon
7 - Gliscor
8 - Ting-Lu
9 - Baxcalibur
10 - Gholdengo
 
1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Gholdengo
5. Chien-Pao
6. Urshifu-RS
7. Ting-Lu
8. Iron Bundle
9. Ursaluna-BM
10. Landorus-T
 
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Omastar68
1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Gholdengo
4. Chien-pao
5. Ting-Lu
6. Urshifu-RS
7. Ogerpon
8. Goodra-h
9. Iron Bundle
10. Heatran

Edit: um, edited it
 
Last edited:
whitephoenixace

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter mane
3. gholdengo
4. chien pao
5. ogerpon
6. ting lu
7. Urshifu - rapid
8. Ironbundle
9. baxcalibur
10. Ninetales-alola
 
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It's Dasher now but lets b real it changes twice a month
~
1 - Dragonite
2 - Flutter Mane
3 - Urshifu-R
4 - Ogerpon
5 - Chien-Pao
6 - Gholdengho
7 - Ursaluna-Bloodmoon
8 - Iron Bundle
9 - Ting-Lu
10 - Baxcalibur
 
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thickfatazumarill

  1. Dragonite
  2. Flutter Mane
  3. Ogerpon
  4. Gholdengo
  5. Chien-Pao
  6. Urshifu-Rapid
  7. Ting-Lu(igi)
  8. Iron Bundle
  9. Landorus-Therian
  10. Gliscor
 
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ribombun

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Urshifu-Rapid Strike
4. Chien-Pao
5. Gholdengo
6. Ogerpon
7. Ting-Lu
8. Iron Bundle
9. Landorus-Therian
10. Gliscor
 
Crayfish

1. Dragonite
2. Chien-Pao
3. Flutter Mane
4. Ogerpom
5. Urshifu r
6. Landorus-Therian
7. Gholdengo
8. Iron Bundle
9. Ting-Lu
10. Ursaluna BM
 
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caojie

1. Dragonite
2. Chien-Pao
3. Flutter Mane
4. Urshifu-Rapid
5. Ogerpon
6. Gholdengo
7. Iron Bundle
8. Baxcalibur
9. Landorus-Therian
10. Ting-Lu
 
The Squash

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Chien-Pao
4. Gholdengo
5. Ogerpon
6. Urshifu-R
7. Iron Bundle
8. Ting-Lu
9. Landorus-T
10. Chi-Yu
 
Atr

1. Dragonite
2. Flutter Mane
3. Ogerpon
4. Chien Pao
5. Gholdengo
6. Urshifu-R
7. Ting-Lu
8. Iron Bundle
9. Chi-Yu
10. Landorus-T
 
LosOjosRojos

  1. Dragonite
  2. Flutter Mane
  3. Ogerpon-Hearthflame
  4. Urshifu-R
  5. Ting-Lu
  6. Ursaluna-Bloodmoon
  7. Iron Bundle
  8. Chien-Pao
  9. Ninetales-A
  10. Baxcalibur
 
The season ends and the results are in!
1698818477259.png


Before I get into announcing the winners, let's have a look at some of the interesting facts from our predictions:

First and foremost, NOBODY PREDICTED OGERPON AS THE FIRST PLACE POKEMON
We all thought this mon was a fraud, and brushed off the first couple of days of it's #1 position as new toy syndrome. The bad Dragonite matchup was not enough to pull this mon down from the throne, and it ended up as the best Pokemon in the format. However, everyone did have Ogerpon somewhere in their top 10, with AldrichYan putting it lowest at 8th.

Contrary to everyone having Ogerpon in their top 10 list, NOBODY PREDICTED SCIZOR TO BE IN TOP 10
This is the first time that a Pokemon has completely snuck in without a single person predicting it (ignore the fact that this is the second time this contest was ever conducted). Scizor's impact in the metagame checking Flutter Mane, Chien-Pao, and Ninetales-A with Bullet Punch, and the Dual Wingbeat buff exceeded everyone's expectations. Also to add to this, only 3 people predicted Chi-Yu to be in the top 10.

With this, I would like to show the Expectation chart, which displays which Pokemon exceeded our expectations (positive value), and which mons were overhyped (negative value). Pokemon that were not predicted are assumed to be 11th for each user.

1698820848841.png


As seen here, Scizor and Ogerpon both far-exceeded our expectations, and Ursaluna-Blood Moon went even further having almost +100 differential compared to our predictions! Meanwhile Chien-Pao, Urshifu-R, and Iron Bundle were overhyped and were way lower than we imagined.

Lastly, let's have a look at the community average again and see how it did.

1698821214760.png


As you can see, we probably put a little too much faith into the Ground-types. Only one (Ursaluna-B) survived. Personally I did not expect Ting-Lu to fall that much.

We had a couple of people with the same top 10s in their list (in different order of course):
  • marilli and Crayfish have the same top 10, and also happens to match the top 10 of the community average
  • thickfatazumarill and ribombun
  • Reggz13 and caojie
  • The Squash and Atr
Finally, here's the compiled results!

1698821902532.png


Congratulations to zapper22001 on winning the second Metagame Prediction Contest!

Like last time, nobody got all 10 mons correct, but unlike last time nobody got 9/10 either. The highest correct score was 8/10 which 5 people got, and Atr managed to squeak past everyone else by getting the 2 perfect match bonus points by correctly guessing Gholdengo (5th) and Chi-Yu (9th)!

If you notice any mistakes that I've made, let me know.
Thanks to everyone for playing and we'll be back for the next metagame prediction contest!

Until Next Time, See Ya
 
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I think a big reason for Ogerpon surprising everyone as the most used mon is that nobody anticipated all three forms counting for the same mon
 
I put it in the OP that the forms count towards the same mon, but I guess I'll be more clear next time and put an addendum post afterwards to make sure everyone is on the same page.
 
I feel like I was already having trouble w/ Oger before this thread. So really not surprised it is #1, I feel ike I got peer pressured into having it not #1 though. Cause DNite, seemed ok. I wonder if the VR thread will re-evaluate Oger for S proper. It definitely gets fewer options than DNite, but it similarly suffers nowhere(relevant) on stats. All the tools, an op non-contact move, the Tera buff to atk, and Mold Breaker(ugh, there go Flash Fire and Sap Sipper lol,) make it probably better as a starting point. If NOTHING else(and I do believe there's much, much else,) it saves on shards cause it is fixed Tera type by mask lol. Knock Off for the now useable Ability Shields is a devastating option, and then even if you DO run a good fire to beat it(I have Scarf Chandelure, basically always 2hkos,) some creep may still run Stomping Tantrum xd(ran into twice in a row I was sad.)

EDIT: hope there are more of these. Esp. if there's one series to ban top mons like before, would be fun to guess. I don't think I have much chance though, too optimistic for weird mons to do well(well Goodra-h wasn't THAT weird...)
 
Honestly, I see all the ogers as very different... Like shrek in shrek 1, 2, and 3 XD. Especially Cuz the pure grass one can hold an item. If not, then they would be the same IMHO
 
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