April Standard Metagame Statistics Analysis

Statistics are gotten from here.


http://cap.smogon.com/ShoddyStats/2009-04/Smogon-200904-Details-Standard.html


I used my calculator here.


http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54466 .




Sometimes when I refer to pokemon, I am refering to the metagame. Think of it as a fictional pokemon who is the average of the metagame.


First I went through the list and got the usage PERCENT for each pokemon. Any pokemon who had a usage percent of 0 were excluded. This statistic is now known as raw_pk_usage_perc.


I then corrected the statistic using the following.


cor_pk_usage_perc = raw_pk_usage_perc / sum of all(raw_pk_usage_perc)


I'm not going to post equations all over the place, as that will bore me. Assume whenever I correct a usage percentage I use an equation similar to the one above.


Top 5 Pokemon Used.


Scizor: 4.6%
Salamence: 3.9%
Gyarados 3.4%
Heatran 3.3%
Infernape: 3.0%


This means if you were to battle on smogon in April and your opponent sent out a random pokemon. It has a 4.6% chance of being Scizor. Obviously is Scizor has been fainted it can't be anymore, but I need these numbers specifically for what I am going to do later.


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Next I went back to the raw stats and got the usage percent for each of the moves. I then corrected this as I did with the pokemon usage numbers..


Top 5 Moves Used.


Earthquake 6.2%
Thunderbolt 3.5%
Stealth Rock 3.2%
Stone Edge 3.0%
Surf 2.5%


I made another statistic that is the corrected move percents for only attacks by excluding any “Other” type moves. I'll call it the cor_attack_perc.


Top 5 ATTACKS Used.


Earthquake 9.1%
Thunderbolt 5.1%
Stone Edge 4.5%
Surf 3.7%
Ice Beam 3.6%


I made another statistic that by adding up the corrected percentages of attacks that are of a type.


Percent Usage for each Attack Type


Ground 10.8%
Fighting 10.1%
Ice 9.6%
Fire 9.2%
Normal 8.5%
Water 7.4%
Electric 7.3%
Dark 5.8%
Steel 5.1%
Dragon 5.0%
Bug 4.8%
Rock 4.8%
Grass 4.2%
Ghost 2.9%
Flying 2.2%
Psychic 2.0%
Poison 0.3%


This means that if an attack is used on shoddy in april at random, It will be a ground type attack 10.8% of the time and a poison type attack 0.3% of the time.


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I made a list with all these pokemon and their usage percentages. Each pokemon has a weakness that can be expressed as a number (0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, or 4). From this I was able to calculate the average weakness of the April metagame.


average_weakness_type = sum of all ( pokemons weakness to type * corrected usage percent)


Again, I'm not going to keep posting rehashing of equations you have basically seen. Assume I use this equation to get all averages. I may have used this equation above somewhere. Forgive me as I have been rearranging this post.


The Average Weakness of Metagame


Fire: 1.238,
Ice: 1.214,
Ground: 1.208,
Rock: 1.109,
Fighting: 1.109,
Electric: 1.084,
Water: 1.066,
Flying: 1.052,
Dark: 1.026,
Ghost: 0.987,
Dragon: 0.986,
Grass: 0.965,
Bug: 0.951,
Psychic: 0.900,
Steel: 0.825,
Normal: 0.795,
Poison: 0.706


That means that if you were to battle a training on shoddy in april. The pokemon that they sent out will, on average, take 1.238 times damage from fire attacks. and 0.706 times damage from poison attacks.


Probable contributers to the fire and poison stats are steel types. Steel takes 0 from poison and 2 from fire.

-----------------------------

I then ASSUMED (you can argue whether I can or cannot, I don't care) that the Average Weakness of the Metagame should be equal to the attack type distribution. This is hard to characterize since it's a bit of an abstract example. It's a bit inaccurate of a metric but it gives a good starting place. The best way to explain this is to look at an extreme. If pokemon take 0* damage from normal type attacks, then there should be 0 normal type attacks in the metagame. The other extreme doesn't work out since if a pokemon takes 4* damage from fire type attacks, then there shouldn't be any other type of move but fire. If somebody could come up with a corrected formula be my guest.


Percent of Weaknesses Weak to Type


Fire 7.2%
Ice 7.1%
Ground 7.0%
Rock 6.4%
Fighting 6.4%
Electric 6.3%
Water 6.2%
Flying 6.1%
Dark 6.0%
Ghost 5.7%
Dragon 5.7%
Grass 5.6%
Bug 5.5%
Psychic 5.2%
Steel 4.8%
Normal 4.6%
Poison 4.1%




I then compared the actual attack usage to the predicted attack usage based on pokemon weaknesses to get a measure of how overused a attack type is.


overused_attack_type_metric = actual_usage_percentage / predicted_usage_percentage


This will tell me how overused a attack is. Numbers above 1 indicate that the attack type is overused. Numbers below 1 indicate that the attack type is under used.


Overused Attack Type Metric


Normal 1.84,
Fighting 1.57,
Ground 1.54,
Ice 1.36,
Fire 1.28,
Water 1.20,
Electric 1.16,
Steel 1.07,
Dark 0.97,
Dragon 0.87,
Bug 0.87,
Grass 0.74,
Rock 0.74,
Ghost 0.51,
Psychic 0.38,
Flying 0.36,
Poison 0.08


So normal type moves are overused the most and poison type moves are underused the most.


I'll post more statistics as I get them.


Some Random Statistics


60% of all attacks were physical
40% of all attacks were special


The average power for an attack is 90.85
The average accuracy for an attack is 96.61
The average pp for an attack is 13.14


The Average Power of Attacks by Type


Normal 134.5,
Dragon 113.8,
Fire 101.0,
Fighting 100.4,
Rock 99.1,
Ground 98.3,
Water 90.8,
Electric 88.9,
Psychic 85.6,
Poison 85.1,
Flying 84.7,
Ice 79.2,
Bug 77.8,
Ghost 75.1,
Dark 61.3,
Grass 52.5,
Steel 51.4

(Note: Gyro Ball is counted as having 0 BP, which is what contributes to Steel being so Low. Grass knot is also counted as 0 BP)




Interesting questions.

Why are pokemon so weak to flying type moves and why are they so overused?
Does poison suck THAT badly?
Is the reason physical attacks used over special attacks because special attacks can be walled harder (I'm looking at you blissey)?
 
Nice calculations.

For your questions, it's probably because there's no real good Flying-type moves. Bounce is the only one that comes in mind for me.
Poison has pretty bad type coverage. Also, you have to realize that Toxic is great as a status, but poison as an attacking type just sucks.
Less special sweepers? Not as many stat-upping special moves (no special Dragon Dance or anything like that). The special users are also more physically fragile, and in a physical attacking metagame, that's not good for them.
 
Basically, Scizor/Tyranitar destroy most special attackers. They're more easily killed, easier to wall, etc., hence their lower usage.

And as for Poison as an attacking type? Forget it. Your forgetting that one highly dominant metagame type, Steel, takes no damage from Poison, giving them time to setup or do whatever insanity Scizor wants. Also, only 2 OU Pokemon that come to mind get STAB on Poison: Gengar and Roserade. They both have Scizor issues already, don't add to that.

Your calculations make the error of only factoring in SE hits, when in reality neutral coverage is even more important. Yet another reason why Poison is a horrible offensive type. They also neglect to factor in the number of Pokemon that can viably run moves of that type. Noble effort, but rather lacking.

However, it is interesting to see that Steel is only slightly overused from expected, as Scizor would leave me to believe it much higher.
 
These are great stats. Thanks for them, Seymor.

Okay, the general thought is that dragon has grood neutral coverage. With the "The Average Weakness of Metagame" statistic, it gets a .986.

I guess Dragon isn't the quasi-neutral attacking type you associate it with. And it shows that there are too many freakin' steels in this metagame.

Or maybe I'm the only one that assumes Dragon with neutrality.
 
Okay, the general thought is that dragon has grood neutral coverage. With the "The Average Weakness of Metagame" statistic, it gets a .986.

I guess Dragon isn't the quasi-neutral attacking type you associate it with. And it shows that there are too many freakin' steels in this metagame

This is because there are too few dragons in the Metagame. Non-Dragons that has access to dragon moves just have better options. Being second in Damage Output shows really how powerful it is.
 
These are great stats. Thanks for them, Seymor.

Okay, the general thought is that dragon has grood neutral coverage. With the "The Average Weakness of Metagame" statistic, it gets a .986.

I guess Dragon isn't the quasi-neutral attacking type you associate it with. And it shows that there are too many freakin' steels in this metagame.

Or maybe I'm the only one that assumes Dragon with neutrality.
Actually, his calculations for that section aren't based on neutrality, but rather on super effectiveness/resistance. There's more steels than dragon types in OU, so it's gonna be less than 1.
 
(Note: Gyro Ball is counted as having 0 BP, which is what contributes to Steel being so Low. Grass knot is also counted as 0 BP)

How about Low Kick?
Nice calculations, even though I only read like the first five, and the last one.
 
For the PP, does it assume 3 PP ups or 0?

0. Apply a 20% boost for each pp should do it since it's multiplicative.


(Note: Gyro Ball is counted as having 0 BP, which is what contributes to Steel being so Low. Grass knot is also counted as 0 BP)

How about Low Kick?
Nice calculations, even though I only read like the first five, and the last one.


Low kick has a very minor impact on the metagame. Less than 0.05% usage so it isn't even included in the statistics. Do note that Seismic Toss, Return, Endeavor, Counter, Mirror Coat and Reversal also count as 0. Which makes the numbers for fighting and normal even more insane.
 
I guess then that a very large proportion of normal attacks used are Explosion, and that almost all Fighting moves not named SToss used are either CC, Focus Blast or Focus Punch. Crazy high power there...

I didn't read the full stat list particularly thoroughly as I have other stuff to do, but what I read looks nice. It just goes to show how much Scizor and co are used I guess... and why it's so vitally important to be able to counter them.
 
Pkmn1000, it is because there are more pokemon that resist/are immune to Poison (a.k.a. steels, grounds, and more poisons) than those who resist Normal (a.k.a. Rock, Steel, and Ghost). Correct me if I am wrong though.
 
What would the effect of including Grass Knot's power as its average power depending on usage stats? I'm pretty sure X-Act calc'd that for at least one month...Gyro Ball would be way more complicated to do in this fashion, though, I doubt there's a rigorous way to find out the "average speed of the metagame"
 
Gyro Ball would be way more complicated to do in this fashion, though, I doubt there's a rigorous way to find out the "average speed of the metagame"

The average speed of the metagame is approximately 244.8.

(assuming that the categories on the stats can be represented by the middle of their range, all pokemon have 31 speed IVs; takes into account EVs and Nature distribution for the pokemon.)


Owned.

The Top 10 Fastest Pokemon in the Metagame on Average

x) <Pokemon> <Speed Stat>

1) Ninjask 420
2) Electrode 413
3) Crobat 394
4) Aerodactyl 391
5) Jolteon 390
6) Swellow 377
7) Weavile 374
8) Sceptile 374
9) Alakazam 365
10) Azelf 360

These stats are off due to my not having the exact numbers for the EVs available. I only have numerical categories and can only make assumptions from there. Obviously Electrode runs just enough EVs to beat Jolteon/Crobat/Aerodactyl.


This is how many of those average speed EV's come from each pokemon. Obviously the most used pokemon are going to be on top of the list. Essentially it's corr_usage_percentage * stat whenever I talk about contribution to an average.

Top Contributors to the Average Speed Stat

1) Salamence 11.9
2) Infernape 10.2
3) Gengar 8.9
4) Heatran 8.8
5) Scizor 8.8
6) Gyarados 8.3
7) Latias 8.1
8) Lucario 7.3
9) Azelf 7.1
10) Starmie 6.6


These are the pokemon that want to be the most speedy. This is sorted by Average Speed EVs and subsorted by Average Nature Modifier

Pokemon that want to be the Fastest

x) <Pokemon> <Average Nature Modifier>

These pokemon all have an average of 252 Speed Evs

1) Purugly 1.100
1) Sceptile 1.100
1) Jumpluff 1.100
1) Crobat 1.100
5) Froslass 1.094
6) Raikou 1.092
7) Aerodactyl 1.091
8) Chatot 1.089
9) Jolteon 1.088
10) Gengar 1.080



People seem to be running their gengars fast. If nobody is running a - speed nature, 80% of people run gengar with a + speed nature. 100% of people run crobat with a + speed nature.

A sidenote, The EVs do not count anything listed in the other category. I'm not going to start taking stabs at what that category actually means so I'm just excluding it


On another note, I just took my last college final which means I'll be able to start updating the script (and therefore my data) with with more juicy details about the metagame like that average speed.
 
I actually prefer your method of representing the usage statistics to the official thread's representation. I just have a better intuitive understanding of "This means if you were to battle on smogon in April and your opponent sent out a random pokemon, it has a 4.6% chance of being Scizor" rather than "Scizor had a 27.66% chance of appearing in 1/10 battles" (I might have the definition wrong). Would your script be capable of giving these statistics for the entire metagame?
 
An idea for future stats that could be interesting, how about items overall? Especially if you could do it going a few months back, it could give a rough estimate of the offensive/stall balance.

Also, I think Reason: Bragging mostly is the best reason for editing I have seen so far.
 
ha, this is the first time looking at these. ( thanks by the way ) and if someone needed proof of Latias' impact of centralization of steel and dragons here it is.

Fire: 1.238,
Ice: 1.214,

Could you possibly do something on suspect. It would be very neat to compare Standard to Suspect with the impact of Latios, Skymin, Etc.
 
I actually prefer your method of representing the usage statistics to the official thread's representation. I just have a better intuitive understanding of "This means if you were to battle on smogon in April and your opponent sent out a random pokemon, it has a 4.6% chance of being Scizor" rather than "Scizor had a 27.66% chance of appearing in 1/10 battles" (I might have the definition wrong). Would your script be capable of giving these statistics for the entire metagame?

Err I think you've misunderstood completely. Scizor has a 27.66 chance of appearing in an opposing team which correlates to a 4.6 chance approximately every time they send out a pokemon (27.66/4 = approximately 4.6).

Regardless nice thread dude, some of these stats are really interesting.
 
The average speed of the metagame is approximately 244.8.

(assuming that the categories on the stats can be represented by the middle of their range, all pokemon have 31 speed IVs; takes into account EVs and Nature distribution for the pokemon.)

When I said "rigorous" I meant "factoring in that nature boosts are applied after EV boosts and there's no way to correlate natures and EVs through the data we have." Just because the average Gyarados has 136 speed EVs and a 1.0206 +speed nature doesn't mean the average Gyarados speed is 236.

If you assume every jolly Gyara is max speed, and the rest of the max speed are adamant, and most of the high speed are at 244 for jolly ttar, and most of the mid speed are at 234 for bulkygyara, and the impish etc. are at 198, then the average looks more like 231. This is further complicated by not including choice scarf, which affects gyro ball's base power
 
The calculations factor in all hits.[SE or Neutral]

Sorry, my mistake.

So average speed, not including Choice Scarf, is approximately 245? That's very interesting. Now I'm wondering if we could get other statistics on speed, mostly the median. I'd love to have a distribution chart of speed, or a chart showing at which speeds you outspeed which percent of the metagame, but that's going off topic.

Anyway, looking back at the chart, I see that Dragon is actually underused offensively, mostly I suppose due to the lack of effective Dragon moves that a wide range of Pokemon can learn.

And...
Seymor said:
Does poison suck THAT badly?
Is the reason physical attacks used over special attacks because special attacks can be walled harder (I'm looking at you blissey)?
Yes (I'm looking at you steels)
I'm not sure, but I think the answer to the latter is because there are not many Pokemon capable of setting up on the special side. Physical has DD everthing, SD everything, and Agility/Rock Polish everything. Special has a couple NP users, several more CM users, and practically no Speed boosters. And there are more Pokemon with high (>=130) Attack stats than Special Attack stats in OU, if I'm not mistaken.

I do like this information, now that I've got my facts straight. Good job.
 
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