Alright, let's try this again! My draft disappeared when I came back to finish this up, so this might be a bit more haphazard, but I'd still like to get my thoughts out here in some form or another. To start, I think I'll state my general position of I don't really think one metagame is inherently better or worse if we're only talking about growth of the project/ladder. Personally, as I play CAP far more than I play OU, I would prefer to build for CAP, but we're not really here to care about my personal preferences. Regardless, this is how I sort of see the current situation in terms of growth. Heads up here, I'll be going mostly theoretical, since I don't trust the battle stats to tell me anything more than relative player base size, and I can't do the math I want to without unique player count. I tried deriving the numbers, but it eventually worked out to just be guessing a percent of overlap which again, only gives me relative relations. If anyone knows where I can get that stat, I'd be happy to revise my opinions/post, but until then, we're going with theory!
Overall, I see building for CAP and building for OU as both affecting participation positively, but with slight differences. My reason for thinking so is this. Although we may attract more people to the actual process itself if we build for OU instead of CAP, those same people aren't necessarily going to stick around or become CAP ladderers. For all we can guarantee, they might just participate in the CAP project on the forums, do the playtest, go back to OU in the interlude, and then rinse and repeat. Due to the fact that the ladder for CAP is, well, the CAP meta, and the process would be performed in OU, there would exist a kind of disjoint between project and ladder. So, yes, while you would have access to a larger player base, you can't guarantee that all those same people will be bothered to mess with the ladder of, as has been kind of mutually agreed on here in this thread, a medium-smallish sized meta.
Looking at the other side, let's say we build for CAP. I see what would happen here as the near opposite of OU's scenario. If you're building for CAP, you're almost forcing people to educate themselves and invest themselves in the CAP meta, increasing the chances that the people who participate in building would stick around or try the CAP ladder (a la mere exposure effect). However, the downside to this is that instead of giving people the option to learn the CAP meta later, if they want to try laddering, you make it a part of the actual CAP-building process. Overall, the theoretical effect would be that the amount of people who join for the process might be smaller than that of OU's, but they might be more likely to stick around longer and be more active with CAP outside of the forum project due to the time investment they already put in.
In my eyes, this isn't so much a 'one is intrinsically better than the other' unless you have a specific goal in mind, but more of a different means to a similar-ish end. It's mostly due to this interpretation of mine that I'm a bit unnerved with an earlier post's assertion. I actually agree with the points about the distinction between some OMs and CAP, but I'm hesitant to support some of the claims of the third paragraph.
I'm not swayed by arguments about CAP's growth when OU gets more battles in three hours than CAP gets in a month. We literally handed our entire Pokemon creation apparatus to the CAP metagame crowd and their ladder has barely seen noticeable growth. Furthermore, whether CAP is growing or shrinking is barely relevant; CAP is a medium sized Other Metagame while OU is the standard of competitive Pokemon. If we built for OU and interested even one percent of the OU playerbase, our project would grow faster than it ever could if we built for the CAP metagame. It's not just about the playtest numbers, it's about the potential for growth over our project's future. The best-case scenario for building for OU is that we attract a sizable amount of fresh blood and improve our community and reputation on Smogon. The best-case scenario for building for CAP is stagnation; the same people will be pumping out Pokemon after Pokemon while barely attracting new members. I'm sure OU has picked up 100 new players for every new player CAP has picked up over the past few months; all we have to do is convince one percent of them to participate in our project. I'm up to the challenge.
Let's start with the first part. Nobody is going to deny that OU is the de facto head meta on Showdown. It's essentially Smogon's posterchild, and as such it's reasonable that it's far larger than CAP. It was then alleged that a certain CAP metagame period, which I'm assuming to be Kerfluffle since I can't exactly tell what's being referred to here, but that seems likely, saw no growth. According to Birkal's earlier post, Kerf's playtest was far more popular than the previous ones of Crucibelle and Naviathan. Obviously the playtest participation does not reflect directly ladder participation, but for the sake of skepticism indulge me in this thought. If the playtest was relatively more popular when we used the CAP meta to build for, which forced people to at least invest some time with the meta, but the CAP ladder itself still saw little to no growth, then
why would building for OU, which requires absolutely no investment of time into the CAP meta on the behalf of the participants, inspire more growth? If anything, I would expect if we build for OU, people may try the CAP metagame out on a whim, but without any prior knowledge of the metagame's larger threats, as they weren't discussed during the CAP creation process. This lack of prior experience may exhilarate some people to learn a 'brand new meta,' but it's also just as likely to turn people off, having to invest time learning a meta with no relevance to the actual project they enjoy, which would be being done in OU. The disjoint between ladder and project, as such, could become frustrating for players who already enjoy and are dedicated to OU. Notably, this issue could be alleviated or at least reduced as we get more resources updates and out, but it still discourages learning while working in CAP.
Now, does building for CAP inherently fix the problem of people maybe not wanting to split their time? No. Suggesting that would be silly. However, it does eliminate the disjoint between ladder and project meta, which could make the transition from project participant to ladder participant a bit smoother if ladder is what you're concerned about.
However, I digress. The next point in the paragraph says that playtest numbers aren't the focus of this discussion, but instead the focus is the "growth over our project's future." Now, I'm not sure if the paragraph is contradicting itself here, as earlier it said that "whether CAP is growing or shrinking is barely relevant," but clearly growth is a theme we should be considering. I hope I've made my ideas on the differences between how OU and CAP would each affect expected growth in which areas decently clear, but in case I haven't, allow me to be crystal. I think that OU building can
potentially attract more people than CAP to the project, but the disjoint between ladder and project would cause that growth to be
possibly not affective to the ladder participation. CAP building on the other hand eases the disjoint, allowing for likely more uniform growth, but potentially deterring some people who want to earnestly join the project, but lack the time to learn the meta before doing so.
It then goes on to state that interesting even one percent of OU would cause unprecedented growth. I don't deny this. It would. However, attracting and keeping around are different things, and you're talking about keeping a lot of people here. That isn't just going to magically happen. It takes time and effort into attracting people, and honestly, I don't think that you're going to attract much of a different crowd whether you advertise as OU or CAP. Your fundamental audience is people interested in building Pokémon based off of competitive aspects. A hardcore OU player isn't going to see "Create a Pokémon" and think, "That might be fun!" if they don't already have some vague curiousity or interest in the process of creating a mon. I suppose what I'm getting at is focusing on attracting new people is a poor language to discuss this issue in. As we start creating more media and raising more awareness, more people will come. The rate at which they come and the rate at which they stay around or not may change based on the metagame, but your core demographic doesn't. After all, if you build for CAP, you're still going to be 'advertising' to general Smogon, and by extension a largely OU community. I think someone mentioned it earlier, though I can't recall who, it might have been reach, who focused on the idea of coming across as fangame-y if we work with CAP, hurting our image. I don't disagree with this either. That is a possibility and we need to consider it, but we also should consider that with careful self-monitoring, that impact can be drastically reduced, and the bar to entry that working with the CAP meta presents, can be as well with the advent of new informative resources.
The last thing I want to investigate about this paragraph is this 'best case scenario' spiel. I fundamentally disagree with what was presented here. 100% on the OU part, that's fine. However, this directly implies that there's nothing to be gained from working with CAP, and I hotly contest that. Here's my idea of a 'best case scenario' for CAP: Through working with CAP, the community attracts dedicated new 'fresh blood' as it was put, and grows a bit more slowly than OU, but is filled with people who are more than willing to work to advocate and spread the word about a project they're invested deeply in, helping to keep the project thriving and growing. Alternatively, here's a worst case scenario for each, to show how
both CAP and OU proposals can equally be wrong here. Take the 'best case scenario' from the quoted paragraph for CAP, and that's what I would call a worst case scenario. Essentially, we try something and it doesn't work. Oh well, we can go back to the drawing board. For OU? We try advertising for OU and it also just doesn't attract the new people we expected. People dart in for a bit, get caught between OU and CAP, and then leave back for more OU time. Again, oh well. Back to the drawing board.
This brings me to my last point I really want to drive home here. Regardless of what you think, it's important to accept that if we want change, we need to change something. Whether that be the meta, the media, or our modus operandi doesn't particularly matter. Both CAP and OU building have potential pluses and deltas; I don't think anyone will deny that. However, as it stands, I don't think we really have the sufficient data to say that one way is better than the other, bringing me back to my initial warning of how literally everything you just read (or skimmed) was based off of what I think would happen. If I had it my way, we would build for CAP for a while, then build for OU for a bit, compare data, adjusting for overall PS! growth and participation and the like, and then draw our conclusions. However, such a process is a long and not really the best answer to how do we increase our growth currently. And such is our impasse. I think if we build for CAP a few more times and see how it fares it would be a good experience to, at worst, learn from, and at best, stick to if it works.
TL;DR: My input is this: With respect to growth of the project/ladder, both OU and CAP have good and bad aspects, we don't have the definitive data to say long-term OU is better than CAP or vice-versa. Personally, I prefer CAP and would like to see how it plays out across a few more CAPs before drawing any sweeping conclusions.