Hey guys I'm back for the time of the year where I make a really long post ranting about AAA again. (Inspired by pokevangelical Andyboy 's post about MnM)
The Speed Control Problem
If I had to pin one major issue with AAA right now, it's that the fastest mons in the meta are also the hardest to switch into. The general problem with this dynamic is that it destroys offensive builds. Because of how fast the top threats of AAA are, the only way to often avoid getting destroyed by these threats is by running more defensive mons, which all tend to be extremely passive. Before I start, I'd like to clarify that I don't think HO or mostly offensive teams are unviable--I just think they're just far more limited than they should be. But enough abstract stuff -- here, I'll break down 3 mons which I believe are very unhealthy for the current state of the metagame:
Sets to consider
The main problem with Gengar is its Sheer Force Life Orb set. At 110 speed, gengar outspeeds the vast majority of the relevant metagame. And Sheer Force + Life Orb is so strong that anything faster risks getting OHKO'd on the switch. At the same time, it has basically no switchins outside of bulletproof mons and very niche AV mons like Goodra and Milotic.
The problem with mons that do run bulletproof to beat gengar is that it means one out of 6 mons are running bulletproof. For a meta where role compression is absolutely critical given the variety of sets, and there's a significant power creep that comes from having the right ability, forcing your steel type or your ground type to go bulletproof can be extremely debilitating. The majority of games, gengar or strong mons walled by your bulletproofer don't even show up, and in those games where it doesn't, you're sitting with an essentially base form mon that's likely not very useful against a team of 6 roided up mons on the other side. And no matter what the game, playing a 5 on 6 is never a good thing.
So what's the alternative? There are sets, like AV regen Goodra, AV regen Milotic, AV Snorlax (sense a trend? yeah...no mon to my knowledge lives a +2 attack from gengar without AV)... but of course, there's a catch. They're extremely passive, and are taken advantage of extremely easily without proper team support.
I shouldn't have to explain why running super passive mons on teams that want continuous offensive pressure is bad. For this reason, Gengar has a greater impact on teambuilding than anything else, and the amount it oppresses teambuilding makes it unhealthy.
Sets to consider
Same principle as Gengar. Except now, you know it's clicking boomburst. Noivern's even faster than Gengar, capable of picking off literally every relevant mon besides Weavile, Dragapult, Mamoswine, and Triage fairies. Furthermore, specs boomburst ohkos pretty much the entire speedy metagame, meaning again that, just like Gengar, players have to turn toward passive, slow mons to defeat it. Like Gengar, nearly all, if not all, of noivern's common checks are extremely passive. With recent ompl games such as Thinkerino vs Sabella and Rozes vs Dragonillis proving that the most viable traditional noivern checks, Snorlax, and Corviknight, aren't even true switchins, the remaining pool of possible switchins is extremely small, and just like Gengar's, passive. You could even run soundproof, but that ability's even less useful than bulletproof, and fails on teams for the exact same reason. They even both end with "proof"! What could this mean? I'm not completely sure, but I have reason to suspect that it's *proof* that noivern and gengar are not healthy in the current AAA metagame.
Sets to consider
Dragapult's a little different than Gengar and Noivern in that its checks fulfill a lot more roles and are generally more useful than noivern's and gengar's. The main problem with dragapult is that it can be any set, and by threatening banded adapt, specs, mixed sheer force, and banded galvanize all at once, the dragapult user more often than not will get one free chance to deal 80% or kill a mon on the opposing team. After the set is revealed, it either continues to break, or functions as one of the best speed control/late game cleaners in the meta.
This replay demonstrates how even as dragapult is one of the best forms of speed control on the field, it also manages to deal massive damage to a team loaded with dragapult checks. This isn't a unique replay, either; I've executed and seem similar plays several times (against jrdn in ssnl and with various ompl peeps in test games) because of a trait Dragapult has that no other mon does. Schrodinger's Dragapult is a famous theory that argues that until the set is revealed, your opponent's Dragapult is banded adaptability, specs adaptability, banded galvanize, and mixed sheer force all at once. And that presence alone weighs very heavily on gameplay - against a dragapult, the best play is usually not to go to your best check; rather your best play is to go to your most expendable mon that checks at least one set and pray. I think this is the most unhealthy aspect of dragapult.
This is leaving out that Dragapult's new Sheer Force set has a noivern/gengar-esque effect where it has few, if any relevant switchins while also being faster than pretty much the whole meta barring priority and random scarf. There's also a new set that I'm not allowed to talk about yet that has a similar effect.
Other Problematic Stuff
Realistically, this mon has like 4 checks in the entire AAA metagame: dauntless shield hippowdon, prankster toxapex, dauntless shield mew, and doublade. The problem for Terrakion is that in this current metagame, these four are everywhere, especially dauntless shield mew, which, given its utility and offensive presence with +1 body press, fits on all types of teams already. I can't say Terrakion is as high profile of a threat as the three listed above, but it's definitely something worth considering as unhealthy for the AAA metagame if not now then in the near future.
Just like the above Gengar and Noivern, the only real counterplay to Kyurem from a defensive standpoint is to run passive, often subpar mons. Between Specs Adaptability and Life Orb Sheer Force, kyurem is an enormous threat that every fatter team needs to have counterplay for. Unlike the 3 mons above, Kyurem's a noticeable bit slower, which hurts it a little bit. Aside from that, it's more of a huge strain on teambuilding than anything, and, similarly to gengar, it's capable of completely dismantling teams that don't prepare a good amount for it.
Maybe Poison Heal too but can't ask for too much haha right
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TL;DR The fastest stuff are too strong, so you have to run passive stuff, but being basically required to run multiple passive mons is bad for a meta.
Thanks for reading!
Great analysis which i mostly agree with and i LOVE that you mentioned Pheal being problematic. I ranted about PHeal in the OM room a couple of weeks ago and didn't get many people agreeing with me, but you just gave me hope. I will try to repost my "reasons why PHEAL is unhealthy" rant in this thread in the next few days.
A+ -> S
A -> A+
A- -> A
A- -> A
A- -> A
B+ -> A-
B+ -> A-
B+ -> A-
B -> A-
B+ -> A-
B -> B+ 
B- -> B
A -> A-
A- -> B+ 
B+ -> B
A- -> B-
B+ -> B
B -> UR
B -> UR 
B -> UR
B- -> UR
B- -> UR
