Hello my people. In lieu of the lack of posts up until now I have decided to drop a wall of text to make up the difference.
On the derailing of this thread
I must confess that I am a bit disappointed in the posting quality that has plagued this thread up until now. The purpose of this thread is to discuss what to do with Obstagoon. What we wish to see is posts that explore questions such as “Is Obstagoon broken?”, “Is Obstagoon uncompetitive?”, “Is Obstagoon unhealthy?”, and “Would the tier be better off without Obstagoon?” Yet this thread only has one serious post which briefly touches on problematic aspects and argues that Obstagoon should be banned for being unhealthy. The rest of this thread is filled with unserious one liners. This is somewhat surprising, considering how eager many users have been to voice their concern over Obstagoon in the past month or so. As soon as it became clear that Cobalion could leave the tier, tens of users immediately called for Obstagoon to either be banned or suspect tested. Where those voices went nobody knows. Perhaps they thought the outcome of the suspect test was already a foregone conclusion and therefore decided not to bother with any posting. They would obviously be well in their right to do so, as nobody should be forced to make forum posts. Nevertheless, it is rather disappointing to witness what is supposedly a serious topic of discussion deteriorate into a series of shitposts whose content is about as informative as your average frat guy drunk partytalk on a friday night.
On the Obstagoon question
Anyway, leaving aside my qualms about the terrible posting quality, I do want to touch a bit on what should be the main topic here: should we ban Obstagoon? My starting point will be the tiering policy framework, according to which the purpose of tiering policy is to “create a metagame that is conducive to the more "skilled" player winning over the less "skilled" player a majority of the time.” In order to facilitate the development of such a metagame, we ought to remove elements that are either “uncompetitive”, “broken”, or “unhealthy”. All of these elements reduce the amount of skill involved to a significant extent and thus produce a metagame that is undesirable. However, if a given element cannot be said to be either uncompetitive, broken, or unhealthy, then it should not be banned. Ergo, in order to ban Obstagoon, it would need to be either uncompetitive, broken, or unhealthy.
Definitions
An element is “uncompetitive” if it reduces the effect of player choice to an extreme degree, such that "more skillful play" is almost always rendered irrelevant. Examples of this include OHKO-moves, evasion, and moody, all of which tend to produce a game state in which RNG is emphasised at the cost of battling skill.
An element is “broken” if it is too good relative to the rest of the metagame, such to the extent where a standard team without the broken element facing a standard team with the broken element would be at a drastic disadvantage. Additionally, an element is broken if its counters or checks are extraordinarily niche Pokemon that would otherwise put the team at a significant disadvantage.
By unhealthy elements, I mean elements that are neither uncompetitive nor broken yet are deemed undesirable for the metagame such that they inhibit "skillful play" to a large extent. These are elements that may not limit either team building or battling skill enough individually but combine to cause an effect that is undesirable for the metagame.
According to the tiering policy framework, unhealthy elements are the most controversial and subjective and should therefore be used the most sparingly. The Tiering Councils will only use this amidst drastic community outcry and a conviction that the move will noticeably result in the better player winning over the lesser player. This is a last-ditch, subjective catch-all, and tiering arguments should focus on uncompetitive or broken first.
Is Obstagoon uncompetitive?
Let me begin by stating the obvious: Obstagoon is not uncompetitive. The mon has five main moves: Knock Off, Close Combat, Façade, Switcheroo, and Obstruct. You occasionally also see moves such as Double Edge or Parting Shot. All of these moves are perfectly accurate. You know what will happen each turn. The only RNG involved is a potential crit, but that is the case for all moves in the game. Thus, I can confidently say that Obstagoon is not uncompetitive.
Is Obstagoon broken?
This is a much more contentious point. In my opinion it is not broken. I do not think that a standard team with Obstagoon will necessarily be at a drastic advantage over a standard team without Obstagoon. Nor do I think that its counters and checks are extraordinarily niche pokemon. While the departure of Cobalion certainly makes Goon harder to deal with, I believe that we still have access to plentiful offensive and defensive counterplay. Weezing-G, Diancie, Bewear, Steelix, physically defensive Registeel, and Klefki switch into it and ko it. Mimikyu not only outspeeds and kos it, but it also discourages the use of CC and Façade in general. Heliolisk, Raikou, Tornadus, Inteleon, Virizion, Scarf Gardevoir, Scarf Heracross, Scarf Togekiss, Scarf Regidrago, Scarf Tyrantrum, and Scarf Pangoro all outspeed and ko it. Kingdra, Kabutops, Ludicolo, and Seismitoad outsped and ko it in rain. Shiftry, Charizard, and Entei outsped and ko it in sun. Arctovish and Arctozolt outsped and ko it in hail. Sharpedo outspends and kos it after a speed boost. Lucario can come in on Knock/Façade and ko it with Vacuum Wave. Crobat, Flygon, Noivern, Celebi, Starmie, Scarf Xurkitree, Scarf Rotom, Sigilyph, Aerodactyl, Salazzle, and Entei outspeed it and do a lot of damage to it. Celebi can also outright kill it with Aura Sphere. Metagross, Incineroar, Bronzong, Rhyperior, Reuniclus, and Drampa can trade versus it, assuming that Zong and Metagross have defensive investments with Body Press, Reuni is Colbur Berry, and Drampa is Chople Berry. Golisopod can ko it with First Impression (assuming no Obstruct). It can also take any given hit and pivot out with its ability. Some of these checks and counters are top tier, others are a bit more niche. They have, however, all seen usage in big tournaments and are perfectly viable.
To illustrate why I do not think Obstagoon is broken, I will go through some of the biggest tournament games over the past few weeks. The replays were chosen at random. I first went back and gathered all the relevant replays from the final rounds of ru ssnl in which one player was using Obstagoon and the other was not. I then did the same thing for the last round of rupl. I did not include replays where both players were using Obstagoon, as the purpose of these case studies is to study whether a standard team with Obstagoon has a drastic advantage versus a standard team without Obstagoon.
Round 10 (winner’s bracket semi-finals) ru ssnl eifo vs danny
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ru-615927
In this game I am using a fairly standard offense team with Obstagoon, while Danny is using a fairy standard team without Obstagoon. My team has a decent match up, but it is not thanks to Obstagoon. Heliolisk is faster and kos goon, Flygon is faster and can U-turn for a lot of chip, and he has a good switchin in Rocky Helmet Weezing-G. Consequently, my Obstagoon ends up not doing too much, trading a bit of chip on Weezing for its own life.
Round 11 (loser’s bracket semi-finals) ru ssnl kythr vs bb skarm
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1546246118-tb99etk86yj12ezrddz9d9u0sb0eqqkpw
Kythr has a standard team with Obstagoon, while bb skarm has a standard team without Obstagoon. Once again, the Obstagoon user is not at a big advantage. The opponent has a counter in Weezing-G, a Heliolisk which is faster and can ko it, a Flygon which is faster and can U-turn for chip, a Zong which can take the predicted Façade into Weezing or ko it upon switchin with Body Press, and an Incineroar which can trade vs it.
Round 11 (winner’s bracket finals) ru ssnl eifo vs xiri
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ru-1547982908-d8axcrloitw36d5qxbfizsxapxum400pw
In this replay, I have an Obstagoon vs a team that at first glance seems rather weak to it. Yet, even so, I do not feel at an advantage, because they have a Sigilyph which practically beats my whole team. While they might not have too many defensive answers to Obstagoon, my answers to Sigilyph are arguably worse. It 2hkos my whole team and outspeeds everything except for Rotom and Starmie, the latter of which does little damage back to it. In the end, they manage to kill my Starmie and leave Obstagoon almost dead with their Sigi, while my Goon gets off 50% on Guzzlord, 65% on Golisopod, and kills Sigi. From then and out, the match is still fairly even, and they manage to outplay me for the win. In short, the match up was not drastically in the Obstagoon user’s favour, and the better player, xiri, won the game.
RUPL week 5 lyss vs lily
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ru-619809
This is the kind of match up that could be used to argue that Obstagoon is too good. The Obstagoon user clearly has a drastic advantage over the user that does not use Obstagoon. It outspeeds 5/6 mons, ohkos 4/6, and 2hkos the final two. However, I would contend that the user who refrained from using Obstagoon was not using a standard team. In fact, I would argue that the team is bad. It is slow, passive, and lacks the proper defensive backbone to outstall the opponent. I think the replay does a good job of showcasing this as well. In the end, Obstagoon does not even come out. Instead, Tsareena and Flygon kill everyone.
RUPL week 5 qwily vs beraldinho
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ru-619977
Here we have a standard Goon volt-turn vs a standard bulky offense team which does not have Diancie nor Weezing-G. You often hear people say that such teams are invalidated by Goon, but this replay makes it obvious that this is not the case. Heracross can bluff scarf, Lix can switch in and ko it, Milo can tank a hit and chip it, Crobat can tank a hit and is faster than it, while Mimikyu is faster and discourages the use of Façade and CC. At the same time, Heracross is a big offensive threat and Mimikyu has a great chance at sweeping if played well. Indeed, this is exactly what happened. Goon manages to kill Lix and Milotic, but Mimiyu ends up countersweeping. The Goon user was not at a drastic advantage, and the better player won.
RUPL week 5 Aberforth vs Confide
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ru-620670
Once again, we have two fairly standard bulky offense teams. Goon has an okay good match up, but it does not automatically put its user at a dramatic advantage. The opposite team has a lot of ways to deal with it. Incineroar and Rhyperior can trade vs it, Klefki can switch into it, Starmie does 71-83 with Hydro Pump, Mimikyu outspeeds and is immune to CC/Façade, and Scarf Rotom is faster than it and can volt for good chip. Goon ends up making some progress, weakening Rhyp and killing Klefki, but in return Klefki got up all three layers of spikes, thereby setting the scene for Mimikyu to win if it gets the 50-50 roll vs Gardevoir.
What did we learn from the replays?
In 5 out of 6 cases, the Goon user is not drastically favoured as compared with the player who did not use Goon. In the final case, the case where the Goon user was drastically favoured, the other team cannot be said to be a standard team. In other words, I could not find a single example from recent tour games where a standard team with Obstagoon had a drastic advantage versus a standard team without Obstagoon. Ergo, Obstagoon is not broken.
Is Obstagoon unhealthy?
Thus far I have argued that Obstagoon is neither uncompetitive nor broken. The question, then, is whether it is unhealthy. Ideally, I would want to refrain from banning mons for being unhealthy. I would much prefer to ban mons for being broken or uncompetitive instead. The tiering policy framework clearly states that tiering council should only use this amidst drastic community outcry and a conviction that the move will noticeably result in the better player winning over the lesser player. Granted, I do think it is fair to say that we have received a fair bit of community outcry in the lead up to this suspect test. In that sense, I think it was a perfectly justifiable decision to do a suspect test. However, I am not sure if the tier will actually get more competitive if we ban Obstagoon.
The main argument from the pro-ban crowd seems to be that Obstagoon has a particularly restrictive effect on teambuilding, such to the extent that the meta would be better off without it. The argument usually goes something along the lines of “We only have a few switchins to Obstagoon, all of those switchins are slower than it, and Obstagoon can often benefit from taking their item with Switcheroo. In other words, we have lackluster counterplay, you have to use one of its few counters on every team, and even those counters are not really true counters. Thus, Obstagoon has an unhealthy effect on the meta.”
I have several issues with this take. For one, I simply do not think it is the case that we only have a few mons available that you must use on your team in order to beat Obstagoon. I already listed a bunch of mons that can either check or counter it, and I also showed how it pans out in practice. To me, it does not actually seem as if Obstagoon is extremely restrictive when it comes to building. On the contrary, I think a lot of users simply restrain themselves too much. You do not need a Diancie or Weezing-G on your team to beat Obstagoon, as is evidenced by the tournament replays.
Secondly, I think it is entirely reasonable that players should be expected to prepare for the best breaker in the tier. If your team is exceptionally weak to one of the best mons in the tier, then you should do something about that. For instance, if we go back to the replay of Lyss vs Lily, the latter player’s team consists of a bunch of slow and passive mons that let Goon in while not having any switchins for it. By tweaking this team slightly, we can drastically improve the Goon match up. By replacing Xatu for Crobat, Stakataka for PhysDef Body Press Regi, making Gastrodon Rocky Helmet, and making Roserade bulky, the Obstagoon match up has gone from being terrible to being quite alright.
Finally, I want to say that I understand if people disagree with me on this last point. I think it is perfectly reasonable to argue that Goon is unhealthy. It is hard to determine exactly how much one should be expected to prepare for the best mons in the meta. Drawing that line in the sand between reasonable and unreasonable restrictiveness is very difficult. It is in large part a subjective manner. As such, I will be voting DNB, but I would not be surprised nor appalled if the majority of the voters end up voting ban.
Conclusion
I do not consider Obstagoon to be broken, uncompetitive, nor unhealthy. As such, I will be voting DNB.