I'm going to be illustrating my points in "doubles speak" because I pretty much have locked myself away to playing doubles in order to better practice for future VGC tournaments. This is also my first post, hi.
I think it'd be a bit frivolous to dismiss a modest MM, and I'll explain why (like I said, in double battle speak). I'm not sure why this hasn't occurred to anyone else but the first thing that comes to my mind when looking at MM's base is "Zapdos". Their stats are
nearly identical with a few exceptions landing on the benefit of MM. It's instinctual to instantly compare him to Jolteon because of similar typing and identical speed but MM is capable of so much more than Jolteon in so many respects thanks to improved bulk and a
much better SpAtt base. I really think those who intend to run a spread on him similar to Jolteons (252SpAt/252Spe) are going to find themselves underwhelmed because they are not going to be utilizing MM's strengths.
Compare...Zapdos then MM respectively...
90/
90/
85/125/
90/100
70/75/80/
135/80/
135
Zapdos has a bit better bulk, clearly apparent, and it could be better if typical Zapdos variants ran less speed EVs (~140ish HP in order to run ~100+ in speed) in order to out speed common threats.
This is where MM sort of builds a unique niche that Zapdos can't really achieve. What MM lacks in the bulk Zapdos brings he compensates for on the physical side with Intimidate, he sheds the rock weakness in trade for earthquake (which in my opinion is an ok trade as Rock Slide doesn't damage the users team) and where investment in speed for Zapdos is important he compensates
magnificently in that department. To top it all off he's got a bit more oomph to his damage. I'd say the most threatening ground type (that would lie in MM's speed tier given +nature) is Jolly Garchomp so I went with chomp for some calculations. I've modded HP's power down to 60 relative to its nerf.
Timid - 252 SpA (custom) Hidden Power Ice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 164-196 (89.13 - 106.52%) -- 43.75% chance to OHKO
Modest - 252+ SpA (custom) Hidden Power Ice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 180-212 (97.82 - 115.21%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
You can't out-run a jolly scarf chomp with MM even if you went +nature and max speed so you're just going to have to bank on the awesome-ness of intimidate. If you run Timid the chances of chomp swiping back with a 1HKO are strong. I don't see scarf often in doubles with chomp, mostly berries, so I'm sort of factoring that in to my bias a little bit.
Comparatively, using Flamethrower will net you an assured 2HKO on Max HP Metagross whether Timid
or Modest, and Thunderbolt will 2HKO Max HP Jellicent or Calm Politoed whether Timid or Modest as well. Max HP/SpD Bronzong however...
Timid - 252 SpA (custom) Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Bronzong: 70-84 (40.22 - 48.27%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Modest - 252+ SpA (custom) Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Bronzong: 78-92 (44.82 - 52.87%) -- 23.83% chance to 2HKO
You can turn a 3 turn take down in to a 2 turn take down on fully invested Bronzong tanks (we see these on trick rooms teams a lot for doubles).
I've been seeing a
lot of Azumarril lately in online battles due to both his type change and the sudden discovery that he has always been a pretty good Pokemon thanks to Huge Power and some respectable bulk...and the difference between Timid and Modest is the difference between that Azumarril being a threat to your entire team or you eliminating it on the spot...this is assuming Max HP Azumarril (for 252 HP/252 Att variants).
Timid - 252 SpA (custom) Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Azumarill: 192-228 (92.75 - 110.14%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
Modest - 252+ SpA (custom) Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Azumarill: 210-248 (101.44 - 119.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
50% is a pretty steep bargain for a bulky water team wiping threat. If it's a Belly Drum variant however, even after Sitrus Berry it's a OHKO either way. Both T-bolt and F-thrower were modded down to 90 in these calculations.
So the best spread you could probably run for a Modest MM is 140 HP/252 SpAtt/116 Spe which puts you at 205 SpAtt compared to the Timid's 187. With the Timid variant you can still outspeed a jolly chomp by just 1 speed point with
zero investment and you'll then run 252 HP/252 SpAtt/4 Spe or something like that to compensate for the incoming Earthquake, which hopefully will have been intimidated otherwise you're dead.
Point being...I think Modest MM has a place in that it can score some important KOs/quicker KOs.
Modest
140 HP/252 SpAtt/116 Spe
- Thunderbolt
- Flamethrower
- HP Ice
- Protect
Is my choice version, for those curious (but like I said...I use in doubles).