randomly ended up writing a novel LOL the matchups look rly exciting and im looking forward to the games this weekend for sure. enjoy and good luck everybody
Celestial Tower Tycoons (6) vs (4) Iki Town Idols
SV UU:
passion vs Askov - Askov is 2-0 since moving to SV but hasn’t faced very tough competition as far as this tour goes. He still seems solid here but Passion has the second best UUPL record, going 5-0 before losing on a week where their team was already clinched, and hes also a crazy 15-6 in uu tours all-time. ive been discussing the SV UU meta with him and damn he knows his stuff... id be very intimidated myself
SV UU:
Lunala vs Lily - perhaps a surprising result given their spls (3-5? vs 5-0) where lily was on a tear. shes good of course! but i think the tycoon's sv core has a solid edge... there are 5 SV players with 4 or more wins this UUPL and 3 of them are on the tycoons. i trust them to stay ahead of the meta and think luna/lily are roughly equal in player quality so there ya have it
SV UU: Lyssa vs
Nat - I do think nat is a better player in a vacuum (see: SV OU, Stour qualis rn, WCOP) but lyss has been on a great run to end this tour, beating star and mncmt who are both great while nat (presumably) hasnt been very invested in UUPL with SPL playoffs the past few weeks. I give nat the edge in the metal aspect, which sounds weird because it's historically been one of her bigger weaknesses. but I get the vibe that lyss might be conflicted and overthink in a playoff matchup against a friend, and i know she doesnt rly love high pressure settings
SS UU: Totomon vs
MichaelderBeste2 - Mdb won the matchup last time and has the best record of the SS pool; totomon is a newer player and i feel like someone with mdb's level of tour experience can definitely exploit that by just being too solid. totomon has had a decent enough debut tour for this not to be a roll over, though. mdb is also supported by lily (if he chooses to take the support), and she's probably the single most active SS builder. single as in, the only one. but also in that she cares a lot abt the tier, giving them an extra edge where they prob dont even need it
SM UU: Gondra vs
EternalSnowman - upset pick ?! ?! I think gondra is fine enough in this tier, probably enough to be favored a little. (my opinion may be tempered by the snake in which he was "sabotaged by avarice" to use the controversial words of the above poster). i do think esm can take the upset tho, he's worked well before as a sub into a random tier when i threw him into rupl w a non regen slowbro and he beat pohjis in a bo3. I dont know who has SM teams for either one of these players so it seems kinda 50/50-like and i'll take the upset
ORAS UU:
umbry vs Xrn - I feel bad for predicting against xrn when he has the better sheet record for the second time this tour. but im not that sure i get the move into oras, he was cooking in SV at the start of the tour. seems like kind of a random gen to throw someone new into, oras' big pool of mons means theres a lot of interactions to learn, coverage moves to know (emp running signal beam type of stuff), and so on. umbry also has bouff's support and probably has enough pride to not want to end her unlucky season with a very undeserved 2-6, and with no oras builders on the other side i think shes gonna load something that makes him want to click x rn!!!! (
pokemonisfun are u proud)
BW UU:
Punny vs Finchinator - I see punny as a level above like everyone else in this pool. Although finch beat him last time i think punnys a lot scarier in that he actively builds and pushes the metagame, can load any style, and just has a higher skill ceiling as a player (not a slight to finch though). He's 12-2 or so between this tour and UUSD, though one of those losses did admittedly come against finch this tour. however in a playoff environment i think finch's stated busy-ness will hurt, he seems to go out of his way to say he doesnt have much time for these tours and will be reusing etc, which he did this tour. so either he wont build or he'll be building after not doing so all tour, which is enough of a negative for me to be sure abt bolding punny despite the earlier loss.
or he'll read this and immediately build a god squad out of spite idk we're all just guessing.
DPP UU: Seldanna vs
mael - I remember watching seldanna's 16bit game and didnt personally like their plays... they ended up winning w some paraflinch but 16bit had a lot of obvious double situations that they pulled off without seldanna calling it once. small sample size and seldanna still won ofc so take w a grain of salt. since then theyve lost 3 games in a row which is some unfortunate momentum, tho a 3-4 record is still solid enough. Mael has a positive record in a lily dpp slot!! shes been waiting for this for years. with builder support in beraldo i do think this slot can pull it off. also having a smaller sample size in playoffs is kinda a benefit, theres less to scout him on. he did well this SPL as well. lots of good signs for the lilys to finally get a dpp win in playoffs!!
ADV UU:
ArcticBreeze vs shiloh - shiloh has one of the best records in the tour. BUT i have a sneaking suspicion the idols are running out of adv teams. ive been told they were using old osgoode teams for a while and im p sure he slightly modified a team i posted in an old team dump thread vs garay... which i probably shouldnt admit because using that team got him his first loss oops. but yeah i just dont think they have any builders or new teams? arctic has had a kinda bad tour (which i say bc he kept saying he did shit when he ended at like 6-3 for me in a NUSD) but i think saffy can pull 1 out of the bag for playoffs
GSC UU:
Real FV13 vs Estarossa - this mu happened last time and fv won, he has a much better record this tour and esta seems to be on full Joker Arc this tour. u never go full depressed_wolf_meme...
Cinnabar Arcade Stars (5) vs (5) Safari Zone Smashers
SV UU:
Chaitanya vs Feliburn - Hmmmmm what a weird game to try to predict. Chait started off rly hot for the stars going 3-0 but then played v bad vs mimilucha. he also started 0-2 in oras ru in rupl after historically being 30-8 there, though i know the second one was unlucky. Feli has been a lot steadier, going 3-3 and kinda alternating win and loss each week. I think Chait's highs have been higher, w a slightly more impressive set of wins -- i also think those slumps dont last forever and expect him to bounce back eventually, esp since they subbed viv out instead of chait. but yeah idk this is a 50-50 for me
SV UU: Skarph vs
Star - a banger game for sure, between the 2 best SV records in the tour. I have seen a lot of good things out of skarph but also just view him as a less solid player (again, not a slight, but stars like one of the most practiced on the site etc etc). i feel skarph's scout was crazy LOL it looked like he didnt have any consistent weaknesses and uses some p cool mons. could be considered janky at times but i personally thought the squads were rly intimidating and he pilots them well. star's stuff has made me go "oh yeah thats a team it makes sense for star to use" but with enough variation that it isnt exploitable, with the cm florg + zone squad as a good example. fireworks vs consistency ... breakout vs old vet ... im rly excited to see the stylistic clash here
SV UU:
Spellcaster vs Moutemoute - go shari! im biased. another fairly evenly matched game. i think spellcaster will work a lot harder. shes a good player and went 5-1 or 6-1 for me last uufpl... im a believer! i know shell be super involved in sv prep and is a solid enough player to pilot well. moute is more tilt prone id say and also hasnt been in sv -- though i think hes in semis of either drewvitational or masters so this might be an upset pick by me.
SS UU: ProDigeZz vs
KSt3ve - Prod won the ribbon but has also been on and off the bench for the stars, while ksteve has seemingly been carrying the smashers. Thats all i can really find to separate them -- theyre both undefeated in SS with some impressive wins so it should once again be a banger.
SM UU:
pdt vs robjr - Such a 50-50, I'm gonna be biased and go w my very close friend pdt who i know loves his team and this tour, though im almost certain that's almost equally true for rob. Rob won earlier this tour which might make this a slight upset. but this is gonna be another banger game and im rly excited to see it
ORAS UU:
Pak vs Killintime - Kt has been great but it's Pak oras, idk what else to say. his team against sylvi was so cool... it was j a perfect example of synergy, w a more offensive team still having enough of a defensive core, hazard stack, high-speed breakers that win in trade wars... was cool to get a glimpse into how the guy has a 52-20 record in uu tours.
BW UU:
Amukamara vs Shiba - I also like the shiba BW move, I remember expecting him to switch into that slot when they played us week 4 or 5. Liam has been one of the strongest BW this tour though and I haven't seen enough to not favor him here. There was enough variety on his scout that idt his extra games played will give Shiba any advantage in the builder
DPP UU: Leru vs
Micciu - I'm personally not rly impressed by the stars' DPP, not that it's been bad (leru is 3-2) but it's been a lot of boring standard stuff from what I remember about the scout. Micciu has had some rly cool team ideas, I most recently remember knock uxie on his rain and sludge>LO on qwil which seemed like rly effective mini-innovations. I know he's been saying he has choked a lot lately, but he's looked good in the games ive seen and playing a relatively standard opponent lowers the chance he might be thrown off by unexpected sets
ADV UU: Parpar vs
eden - I like eden's ADV and think it makes a lot of sense. Surprised he wasnt put in a little earlier tbh but perhaps he wasnt available or didnt want to play. Think this is a great roster move. Parpar started off this tour super hot but lost p much all of his momentum lately, losing 3 straight before a win against a non-ADV UUer. perhaps theres just more info abt him on the scouter? or maybe it's just easier to be the new "challenger" than an established player, something ive felt before. either way i think eden can def get it one w a nice form of mini-innovation... thinking back to an old UUSD where he brought a lanturn vs me and it was the exact kinda off-beat mon i didnt prep for
GSC UU: HSA vs
kaori - i know HSA truly hates this tier and thats enough for me to pick kaori who has been positive? lack of gsc knowledge etc. sorry (im not).
vs
vs
