Bughouse
Like ships in the night, you're passing me by
Though we're way farther out than the Canadian election thread that Layell posted, I figured might as well make one of these now that debate and primary season has begun. Post whatever thoughts arise to you :)
I'll start for now by just talking about the first GOP debate because, for now, the democratic side is still pretty quiet. To preface this, I'm a fiscal moderate, social liberal. There are moderate GOP candidates that I would definitely consider voting for over the Dem nominee, but quite a few of candidates on stage last night have social or foreign policy views that really repulse me. I'm trying to keep my views out of it though and just assess performance and how I think GOP and independent voters would view their performances. I think I'm independent enough to capture how many independents will think, but I'm probably off in how I think conservatives will view candidates.
My take on last night is that Kasich is going to surge among a lot of the moderates who supported Bush, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him come second or third in NH primary. He came across as the best qualified and most reliable candidate, and the homefield crowd in Ohio went nuts at everything he said. Bush was fine but unspectacular and he still didn't have a good soundbite on the most obvious question about his brother. Rubio looked and sounded surprisingly presidential, and his moment when he talked about focusing on what the candidate can offer for the future, not their past resume, was well spoken and believable.
Walker answered like one would expect Walker to answer, which to say he was decently solid and consistent on his messages, but boring. Huckabee, Trump, Christie, and Paul all acted exactly as you'd expect them to act. All 5 of these candidates' popularity will stay pretty level, though I would HOPE some Trump supporters would defect... I just don't think that will actually happen. Even Huckabee's "kill people and break things moment" won't hurt him. His base is reliably in favor of his more religiously based statements like when he talks about abortion and haven't cared historically about much else that he says. Rand Paul and Chris Christie staying level after last night is very bad for their candidacy with Kasich and Fiorina (from earlier in the night) about to surge past them.
Cruz and Carson (with the exception of Carson's closing statement and when he called out the moderators for ignoring him for a solid half hour at least - or at least that's how long it felt) to me had highly unmemorable answers, and it didn't seem like they got all that much screen time either. It's tough to be memorable in a debate with 10 people on stage when you refuse to get into a big argument with someone else on stage or say anything intentionally inflammatory.
I'm curious about other people's perceptions of last night's debate.
I'll start for now by just talking about the first GOP debate because, for now, the democratic side is still pretty quiet. To preface this, I'm a fiscal moderate, social liberal. There are moderate GOP candidates that I would definitely consider voting for over the Dem nominee, but quite a few of candidates on stage last night have social or foreign policy views that really repulse me. I'm trying to keep my views out of it though and just assess performance and how I think GOP and independent voters would view their performances. I think I'm independent enough to capture how many independents will think, but I'm probably off in how I think conservatives will view candidates.
My take on last night is that Kasich is going to surge among a lot of the moderates who supported Bush, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him come second or third in NH primary. He came across as the best qualified and most reliable candidate, and the homefield crowd in Ohio went nuts at everything he said. Bush was fine but unspectacular and he still didn't have a good soundbite on the most obvious question about his brother. Rubio looked and sounded surprisingly presidential, and his moment when he talked about focusing on what the candidate can offer for the future, not their past resume, was well spoken and believable.
Walker answered like one would expect Walker to answer, which to say he was decently solid and consistent on his messages, but boring. Huckabee, Trump, Christie, and Paul all acted exactly as you'd expect them to act. All 5 of these candidates' popularity will stay pretty level, though I would HOPE some Trump supporters would defect... I just don't think that will actually happen. Even Huckabee's "kill people and break things moment" won't hurt him. His base is reliably in favor of his more religiously based statements like when he talks about abortion and haven't cared historically about much else that he says. Rand Paul and Chris Christie staying level after last night is very bad for their candidacy with Kasich and Fiorina (from earlier in the night) about to surge past them.
Cruz and Carson (with the exception of Carson's closing statement and when he called out the moderators for ignoring him for a solid half hour at least - or at least that's how long it felt) to me had highly unmemorable answers, and it didn't seem like they got all that much screen time either. It's tough to be memorable in a debate with 10 people on stage when you refuse to get into a big argument with someone else on stage or say anything intentionally inflammatory.
I'm curious about other people's perceptions of last night's debate.