The usage impact from a new analysis: Liepard

[Joim]

Cheers, beloved Neveruserers!
I'd like to show the impact on the metagame when a new analysis or set is posted on the main page. The subject is obviously Liepard, whose Swagger set analysis was uploaded in January.

Truth to be told, the Swagger set already spawned time to time in Random Battle. It was already dreaded for all of us, random battlers, and known by several NU users, but we can say that it was not that prominent in the meta like it is today. We can se the evolution on usage and rise from January to March, we could say that the appereance of a new, more effective set in the front page on Smogon.com directly impacted the metagame.

This is the usage evolution:
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Usage | Percent | RealUse| RealPct |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** October ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| 48 | Liepard | 4081 | 3.916% | 3429 | 4.008% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** November ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| 51 | Liepard | 4332 | 3.919% | 3783 | 4.164% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** December ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| 40 | Liepard | 7163 | 5.330% | 6129 | 5.550% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** January ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| 19 | Liepard | 7.56779% | 9111 | 7.135% | 7733 | 7.408% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** February ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
21 | Liepard | 7.26213% | 6266 | 6.807% | 5219 | 6.987% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
*** March ***
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +
| 15 | Liepard | 8.46846% | 10820 | 7.741% | 8788 | 7.748% |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ------ + ------- + ------ + ------- +

Relevant dates:

• Dec 3rd 2012: Skeleton posted
• Dec 27th 2012: 3rd QC check
• Jan 11th 2013: 2nd GP check
• Jan 13th 2013: Uploaded to the site

As we can see, it's possible that even the skeleton impacted its usage due to forum readers trying it.


Sadly, pastes from old movesets are deleted from Ubuntu pastebin, so we can only check February onwards:
February
Abilities: Prankster 96.466%
Items: Leftovers 74.992%
Spreads:
Jolly 248/8/0/0/0/252 16.073%
Timid 80/0/8/0/252/168 13.686%
Moves:
Foul Play 73.784%
Thunder Wave 72.368%
Substitute 68.310%
Swagger 68.007%
Encore 38.320%
Taunt 16.424%
March
Abilities: Prankster 96.364%
Items: Leftovers 81.329%
Spreads:
Jolly 248/8/0/0/0/252 17.049%
Timid 80/0/8/0/252/168 16.791%
Moves:
Foul Play 80.363%
Swagger 75.279%
Substitute 74.337%
Thunder Wave 71.440%
Encore 34.858%
Taunt 13.347%
The slight decrease on Prankster usage might be due to Limber Liepard used as Liepard counter.
As we can see, the main set raises in popularity even at the latest month usage.

It's really interesting to see what new content on the main site can achieve so fast. It's only normal that the quality on-site should be the highest possible, as it greatly affects the metagame.

 

[ryan]

As I mentioned on IRC, this is really interesting stuff. It's crazy how the set wasn't even implemented until the middle of January, and yet, it rose 21 places up to number 19 for the month. I imagine that the set being posted on site must have had a huge influence.

Also, I agree with your last statement that the quality of on-site sets is of the utmost impotance which is even more obvious now that we have some real numbers to look at.

Finally:

Cruel indeed.

 

[WhiteDMist]

I see that a lot of players like using Thunder Wave on Liepard. I see the draw: stopping sweepers in their tracks, starting the irritating para-fusion combo, and just generally making Liepard a great Pokemon to use to turn a match around in your favor without needing a whole lot of skill. However, I find that Encore is the better move in that slot generally. It does take more skill and prediction to use correctly, but the rewards are greater overall. It still stops set-up sweepers in their tracks, but they also do NOT have a chance to break out of confusion and hurt you if you Encore them into their set-up move. Substitute users are a pain for Thunder Wave Liepard because it is forced to break the Sub with Foul Play or switch out to a teammate to do so; with Encore, Liepard can wall Substitute users as easily as it can grind set-up sweepers to a halt. The low PP for Encore is a drawback, but it still makes Liepard an excellent check for opposing Thunder Wave Liepard (Encoring Liepard into Thunder Wave, Substitute, or even Foul Play is a great boon). To me, the simplest thing I can say is that Encore is more effective (and benefits one more) in the hands of a skilled player, while Thunder Wave can be used by a player with less skills as well as one with great skills (though the results are generally as hax reliant no matter the player). Any thoughts on what I've said? Encore or Thunder Wave? Needs skills or works for everyone the same?

 

[Joim]

I think Encore is more difficult to use, at least it requires more skill and might be overall a tad more situational, whereas spreading paralysis when possible usually gives you advantage. I can see Encore being better in a lot of cases, but with a bad prediction you can get your Liepard fainted. It's interesting that Encore usage went down by 4% the last month, I'm eager to see the next month's 1337 stats...

 

[Punchshroom]

While I can see the benefits of Thunder Wave, Encore is easily the option that relies more on skill, and thus can reap the better reward. Along with Prankster Sub (or even without!), Encore can turn almost any non-attacking move into setup fodder. This allows Liepard to start the Swagger-Foul Play combo or set up a Nasty Plot. Thunder Wave slows down opponents yes, but the opponent has a 75% chance of ending Liepard right there; Encore guarantees that free turn with smart switching/play and allows Liepard to take control of the battle. Encore might require prediction, but Thunder Wave relies on that full para (i.e. hax) to allow Liepard to even survive the turn. Encore is far and away the better option for Liepard imo.

 

[Infernis]

You can use Swagger first for a 50% chance. I've had great success using the Parafusion Liepard. Even if the Swaggering fails, one of my wallbreakers like Sawk or Beheeyem or Golurk can eat them alive later.

 

[Punchshroom]

In the event Swagger fails (factoring in accuracy), Liepard basically sacced itself for nothing as victims can switch out of confusion. I've seen way too many noobs go for Swagger turn 1 only to get destroyed. Swagger by itself can best be used as a desperation move to stop a dangerous sweeper (who threatens to wreck you attack boost or not) though, as opposed to only aiming to buy free turns.

That said, I gave up T-Wave on Liepard as Swagger accomplishes much of the same things aside from slowing opponents down.

 

[bobbyvaporeon]

The problem is newer users think that Liepard should be used as a Swagger/Foul Play set. This is untrue, much like people ignoring Whismicott's potential by just using the SubSeed set. The fact of the matter is that Liepard is one of the most annoying Pokemon in the meta, and also one of the best. I feel that Encore is Liepard's best move, as as Punchshroom stated, it can make an opponent's Pokemon complete Setup bait. Overall, I feel Liepard can be living hell to face, and the fact that it has the movepool to use one of the best abilities in the game.

 

[Ashley11]

The problem that i have with liepard is that it is luck based, annoying, and requires no skill. All you do is parafusion, then foul play it. No skill at all. Encore Liepard is great. But the Swagger liepard is something that can change the game with luck and no skill, which really annoys me.

Liepard is good, don't get me wrong, but there are better things out there like bobbyvaporeon said. The encore set, the weather inducer set, etc.

Imo, i like using thunder wave. It stops sweepers, gets an advantage on any offensive mon really. Just using the Swagger and Foul Play with it creates a no skill set.

 

[Punchshroom]

Foul Play is a fantastic revenge killing tool that requires zero investment in offenses. The only problem I have with it now is that most of its targets, such as Zangoose, Sawsbuck and Golurk are now less relevant in the meta and you can't nail Scolipede with it as it is faster, though it hits Marowak really hard before it can Bonemerang right through your Sub. Quite frankly I've rarely used Swagger+Foul Play unless I have to (Musharna and Misdreavus), so the moves can still work independantly. Dark Pulse might get more merit in this meta however.

 

[skylight]

I prefer Encore over Thunder Wave in most cases (in regards to a few posts back), purely because when predicted right you can gain a huge advantage, especially on something like Shell Smash Carracosta, which is a pretty strong force right now, and getting that free time to breathe pays off and you can now either set up a sub or do a lot of damage on it with Foul Play (which, if I worked out correctly on the calc, is somewhere around a 2HKO now). It's true that it involves a lot of prediction, but I think the reward is much greater than just spreading paralysis around, although I do see how it can be more useful now, given that the metagame is faster than it was in Stage 8, and more teams can benefit from paralysis being spread around.

 

[Joim]

The main disadvantage to using Liepard to spread T-wave is that you have Murkrow with Roost too for that. Encore is seriously underrated, I agree with that. Liepard suffers a bit from 4MSS. However, I totally disagree that weather setter is better, since Liepard do not benefit from any weather and manual weather in current NU is meh.

 

[Punchshroom]

Sun is pretty damn powerful atm, but I agree Liepard isn't that great of a weather-setter and paralysis-spreader due to Volbeat's support and (ironically) low speed for U-Turn and Krow's access to Roost, Evolite, PerishTrap and uses the same STAB Foul Play Liepard has.

 

[Lasagne]

I'm just going to revive this.

I've been using a different cat recently, which was admittedly stolen from Raseri. Night Slash/Pursuit/U-Turn/Encore with a Life Orb. This thing is actually really fun to use, and can come as a big surprise to anyone expecting the standard swagplay set. You can encore someone into a setup move, so they have no choice but to switch. Here you have 2 options: Pursuit for big damage, or U-Turn for the switch initiative. Both are very useful in different situations, such as pursuiting a jynx or misdreavus, but u turning out if its something that doesn't care about the pursuit anyway. Night slash is very useful if you just want to come in and revenge kill something like golurk, haunter or gardevoir. This is overall a really fun set and I recommend that you try it.


raseri edit: i stole that set from sweet jesus i think, he just had sucjer punch on it

 

[InsaneDragoniteHD]

If you ask me, Liepard is a luck based poke in this meta, often changing games over getting that constant parafusion during the battle. It is not hard to take down, but if you are left with pokemon that lack any sort of priority move, you are pretty much screwed in that retrospect unless you break out of confusion or have something to shut Liepard down. Most new players use Liepard, because without Encore, you really don't have to predict too much with Liepard, mainly because you are spamming the same 4 moves over and over again in the same order. There is also a problem with new players, like I used to think myself like 1-2 months ago, was that Liepard was only for one thing, which was wrong. There is a lot it can do also, if you can use it right, you can run sets other than just the generic set, allowing it to actually be used as a weather inducer.

I have used Liepard with Encore to great effect, it does shut sweepers down for a turn, but even with that, it can still almost die to a physical hit because of its not very good defenses and the fact its typing makes it weak to the most threatening mons in the tier, which are mainly Jynx,Sawk,Primeape,Scolipede,etc. Pretty much any mon that has a super effective move against it will kill it, bar it doesn't have a substitute up. Liepard does have some plus things on its side though. It can be used as a reliable weather setter, because with the prankster, you are guaranteed to get your weather up first, and because of Liepard's high speed, you can outspeed the other prankster mons in the tier, therefore allowing you to possibly switch out and kill their Prankster weather setter. Liepard is good if used correctly if used differently and with prediction. This usually means using sets that aren't the cheap Foul Play Set that every new player runs, mainly because that requires no to very little prediction.

I have lost to a couple of them, because I kept getting parafused every single time I would switch out. I find that if you want to take out the cat, you generally run minus attack IV's on something, so that you can deal with it better.

(Hope this is good, still a beginner at posting..haha :p)