Some interesting games
SV OU: mncmt vs Nat - I think these two are close in terms of gameplay and I would bold either of these two against most players in the pool; their results speak for themselves at a certain point with mncmt carving up SPL and Grand Slam while Nat has become one of the most consistent CG OU players, which is a sentence I did not think I would utter ever some years back admittedly. What gives Nat the edge is how detail oriented her team construction is and the concepts she applies. Every week I feel Nat produced another banger ranging from the Tera Dark duo of Clefable W1 and Volcanion W4 to the Alolan Muk days during WCOP. I really enjoy her fresher perspective on the metagame and seeing what she comes up with each week, almost making her games appointment viewing for OU enthusiasts like myself. mncmt is no pushover when it comes to brings either as he’s almost always using something solid and that’s all you need honestly, but sometimes his teams can be a tad more plain or known, which isn’t always a bad thing, but may be exploitable by someone with Nat’s degree of expertise. Of course, mncmt can outplay the craziest of endgames as we have seen, so this may not be a barrier. Very exciting game and not one that I would call more than a 55-45.
SV LC: Éric vs tazz - Eric has had an awesome start to the season and I think that his success has been pretty quiet — I was pretty surprised myself when I hopped into the sheet and saw firsthand. 4-0 is nothing to take lightly, even if his opponents aren’t all household names themselves. He’s clearly distinguished himself and for only 3k, that pops out even to someone who has not much idea about LC. Great for him after he entered with less outside hype than some of the bigger name LC players, including his opponent here. Speaking of his opponent: Last year tazz was really thorough with his prep and calculated with his plays in most games; I think he went around even, but as a teammate I was always pretty confident in him and knew he was doing his best with his process. Last week he ran into a buzzsaw, but I have confidence in tazz to parlay his overall success into a win here. He has the edge in experience and I don’t think tazz has used too many teams that take the wrong risks. This will be close and is one of those top lower tier matchups I circle and make sure to catch regardless of the tier tbh.
SV OU: Rubyblood vs Niko - Both players have gotten off to a strong start despite going 5k or less in the auction, which cannot be understated. Niko has always been a >5k player just based off of his style and comfort executing alone imo, but he came off a ban and some managers may have been hesitant. With that in mind, I’m not too shocked he’s done well and some of his team picks have been the right types of risks so far. Ruby has been great for the Islanders as well, being one of the few undefeated slots left in OU despite costing the minimum. I do think there are some trends he has, but at the same time outplaying potential and putting an aggressive spin on things leaves little room for them to be exploited. Between OLT and this, Ruby has continued to make a name for himself and should be seen as one of the better options in this pool. But I do side with Niko as he’s a bit more dynamic in the builder and experienced overall. I find it hard for newer players to sustain X-0 type of records too long just in general — kind of like why I think I have tazz beating Eric — and while Ruby has been around a bit, this is his biggest opportunity to date. Definitely see him going 6-3 or 7-2 for example, but Niko is a hard opponent to prep for and could give himself the edge here. Close game for sure, probably about a 50-50 to me.
SV NU: Danny vs GXE - Both are great lower tier players. I feel like GXE had the edge with playing just due to the sheer volume he has. He’s been one of the better NU players for a couple of years now and that’s reflected in his price, his results, etc. However, I think Danny has the edge in the builder. The midnight madman has a way with the concepts that go a bit further deep than the average player I’d say. I love seeing what he uses and even end up ripping some of the teams myself if I’m being honest. I do think he’s the slightly more varied of the two as well, but neither could be considered one dimensional I’d say. I think with a more volatile NU metagame and there being a lot of room to explore and “solve” certain matchups, I really like Danny’s chances of turning his 2-2 into a positive record deep into the season and starting here. GXE is obviously someone you cannot take lightly or bold against easily, but I think it’ll be a slower burn with him just because of the tier’s environment. I foresee him being better down the stretch than I do in the immediate future just as we still see different strands of offense with the weather craze shifting into the hard offense phase all sorting themselves out. Basically I rate GXE better overall, but I think Danny may have the edge in this exact moment.
SV OU: BIHI vs Malekith - Admitedly tough draw for BIHI to start his time in SV these weeks. He’s proven adaptable throughout the generations to an impressive extent, far surpassing others with his background/join date tbh. However, BIHI may very well have met his match here as Malekith is similarly capable across generations while he’s on an amazing streak right now. Kith dominated WCOP, made it all the way to classic finals, and has done well so far in this tournament as well. His teams are fresh, his play has been up to par with the best, and he continues to elevate himself no matter the generation or tournament. I’m really impressed by Malekith recently because of all of this, even if he fell short last week against someone I thought he may beat. BIHI is no slouch and I think him being shifted to OU will pay off in the long haul as he’s had success in CG as recently as last year iirc, but this is a tough draw and he may still adapting in his second week slotted. Probably around 60-40 Kith, but I love these veteran matchups.
SV Ubers: fade vs entrocefalo - I feel like the vibes surrounding Entro have all been pretty impeccable; he’s definitely feeling like the next best Ubers player to me from afar at least. Great in open, strong start so far, and plenty of results in smaller settings as well. I really think he may have a leg up on most opponents in the builder while keeping a solid profile as a player. fade I think is a really great player and while I was surprised he was in Ubers to start, he’s transitioned well enough with a 2-2 start. Just think this is one of the harder draws for someone who isn’t a mainer or Ubers tryhard honestly, but I do think he can outplay or take the right risks as a generally smart player tbh. Curious as we don’t see a ton of matchups like this in Ubers where it’s a top mainer against a generally strong player who has proven to be adaptable before, so that’ll be interesting from an outsider’s perspective. I lean Entro against the entire pool honestly, but I see Fade as a good candidate to do even better as the season goes on with more experience, so will be close.
SV OU: lax vs mind gaming - Both of these guys are great players who are on heaters rn. Mind has been branded as one of the best of the best this generation, and that’s no surprise if you take a glance at his results. Him and fog combining for 8-0, even if there was some fortune, is no surprise and feels more sustainable than one would imagine. Feel like you can count on mind for a win virtually every week regardless of the circumstance at this point and he’s entering a zone that very few others are in or have been in for prolonged periods of time. The consistency is unmatched atm and he’s really become a model for teambuilding success as well, specifically going back to Germany’s standout building throughout WCOP. It’s cool too as he’s used some fun things like Mimikyu and Hoopa, so it’s not just solid standard so much as it is tailored to specifics, which I can appreciate as a spectator. Lax is no slouch though and while he had a tough WCOP, everything since has been superb. Deep OLT run and a recent streak in this tournament has me very excited. Lax has always had the potential and sometimes it’s shown with scattered dominate showings, but he’s also flopped a few times, which makes this recent stretch really encouraging. I feel like he sees the tier better than ever in the builder and has a knack for creative solutions that work with his piloting, too. You’ll see his teams being mostly standard but with a couple of sets of Pokemon to distinguish them, and I think that’s a really nice sweet spot to aspire to be in as he’s never lost in the sauce, but also still hard to predict. It’s really hard to bold against mind gaming though and I worry that lax may be more focused on OLT, especially if the Shoguns aren’t quite lighting it up yet. That’s not a shot at him or his team either so much as it is just speculation as to what may be going through his mind atm. Hopefully this’ll be a great game as I’m fond of both, leaning mind 55/45 for now. Could go either way though.
SV UU: Gilbert arenas vs Eternal Spirit - Two traditionally superb OU players going at it in their new homes. I always love these matchups as you get to see some historically good play brought to lower tier settings, and that’s not even a shot at mainers so much as it is a testament to the greatness of both of these guys. Gama has dominated a few tournaments before and even had great success in individuals with an ST win, but I think this is his first big tournament in UU. He had a nice start against roro before falling to two seasoned UU players and then evening it out last week; it’s probably about what you’d expect for him to trade games early on and then fully put it together later. With this in mind, marcop has had an affinity for navigating these lower tiers dating back to last season in NU and is already popping off here. Dude is just kinda built different and a true subscriber to the mons-is-mons type of headspace. I have full faith in him to keep it going and take this as he already either seems polished or at least comfortable enough to take it to anyone in the tier. Close one and an exciting name matchup for sure, but lean marco given what we have seen.