To Miss or not to Miss, That Really is The Question

[chuckaboomboom]

As a player, do I use Stone Edge on my Tyranitar or Rock Slide? In Pokemon, there are high damage moves with low accuracy, but there are also lower damage moves with higher accuracy. I will analyze this case from two viewpoints: mathematical and situational.

Introduction
Let's suppose that you were building an OU team and decided to use a Scarfed Mixed Salamence. As soon as that happens, the impossible questions begin to pop up. Do I use Fire Blast or Flamethrower? Stone Edge or Rock Slide? Give up now or give up later? Stone Edge may be necessary for you to get an OHKO, assuming you can land a hit. Flamethrower is very consistent, but perhaps the damage output just isn't enough. In Pokemon, there are high damage moves with low accuracy, but there are also lower damage moves with higher accuracy. Which move should the player use? This article answers that question by exploring two viewpoints: mathematical and situational.

Mathematical Viewpoint:
Mathematics and probability are our treasured friends when answering this question. They allow us to calculate the expected damage output over a long period of time. I'm going to get into some mathematical jargon here, so if you're not interested, you can skip this part and look at the calculated rates below. In theory, if a move is used 100 times, that move will hit the opponent the number of time equal to its accuracy. So, if you take a move's base power, multiply it by the number of times it's expected to hit out of 100, you will get the total expected damage output. I WILL GO ON WITH THIS SECTION.

Expected damage output (when used 100 times)
Stone Edge: 8000 (Base Power 100. 80% Accuracy. 80 hits out of 100. 100x80)
Rock Slide: 6750 (Base Power 75. 90% Accuracy. 90 hits out of 100. 75x90)
Rock Tomb: 5700 (Base Power 60. 95% Accuracy. 95 hits out of 100. 60x95)

From a purely mathematical standpoint, Stone Edge is the better option because it has a higher expected damage output.

Scald / Surf / Hydro Pump

Flamethrower / Heat Wave / Fire Blast

Thunderbolt / Thunder

Ice Beam / Blizzard

Fighting move / High Jump Kick

I WILL ADD MORE TO THIS SECTION

Situational Viewpoint:
When we look at a battle from a situational viewpoint, we may realize that one move may be preferred over the other.

Rock Slide / Rock Tomb vs. Stone Edge
When we looked at it mathematically, Stone Edge was the superior option because it had a higher expected damage output. However, what if we looked at a battle from a situational viewpoint. Suppose that its the end of the game, and all you have is your scarfed Landorus-T against a Zapdos with half if its HP left. Can you afford to miss with Stone Edge? That move only has an 80% accuracy. What this means is that out of ten battles where you're in this situation (or similar), you're only mathematically expected to win four out of those eight battles. However, if Landorus-T used Rock Slide instead of Stone Edge, which has a 90% accuracy, you're mathematically expected to win nine games out of those ten. You're expected to win one more of these games when you use Rock Slide instead of Stone Edge.
Consistency
Etc.

Flamethrower vs. Heat Wave vs. Fire Blast

Scald / Surf vs. Hydro Pump (Keldeo)

Thunderbolt vs. Thunder
Thunder's accuracy is too low to be consistent.

Ice Beam vs. Blizzard

Fighting move vs. High Jump Kick

I WILL ADD MORE TO THIS SECTION

Conclusion

 

[Bummer]

I'll get back to this, but I just felt like saying that you should avoid making appeal after appeal in the hopes that one idea will eventually stick. Just a generally bad practise, although you make somewhat of a notable exception since you have ellaborate posts to each submission @_@

 

[chuckaboomboom]

I'll get back to this, but I just felt like saying that you should avoid making appeal after appeal in the hopes that one idea will eventually stick. Just a generally bad practise, although you make somewhat of a notable exception since you have ellaborate posts to each submission @_@

kk sry, I'll be sure to remember

 

[Bummer]

Looking over this, I feel that this won't make for a good article. The tradeoff between accuracy and power is something all battlers are familiar with, and the example you used for the Rock moves are the same examples you'll most likely be using the for the other kind of moves you've lined up. As for the second part, I am fairly certain that we recently had an articles about risk vs reward (but don't quote me on it), and the example you used with Zapdos is fairly specific and doesn't feel like it's getting the point across, as you're just as likely to miss a crucial hit in the middle of the battle as during the very last turn. While you can calculate the odds of an attack hitting consecutive times, the odds of each attack hitting is nonetheless the same. Stone Edge and Hydro Pump are despite the rage their hax may cause valid options as both can hit twice in a row with a fairly good chance (64%), while moves like Focus Blast and Hurricane either warrants a desperate need for coverage or lack of other STAB options to use, since you hitting twice in a row is technically hax on your end (49%). It's also a matter of determining what your biggest threats are and decide if you need the moves with higher power at the loss of accuracy in order to nail them harder or even defeat them on the spot.

Either way, having an article solely centered around accuracy won't make for a long article, particularly so as bringing up those other moves you've listed will only bring across the same point, with some slight variations. One could flesh this out by introducing other means of risks/effects (secondary effects of moves for the most part, like stat drops, recoil, statuses), but given how you tackled accuracy, I'm not sure if you should be entrusted with such a topic. Per usual, I'll be paging some other peeps ( Toast++ skylight Quarkz Valmanway ), but for me, I'm giving this article a no.

 

[Valmanway]

I agree with changing the subject to trade-offs, as power vs. accuracy is only one of a few examples of this. This also includes low PP/high power, bad movepool or typing/strong Pokemon, and I guess you could say opportunity cost in regards to Mega Evolutions, among other things that don't immediately cross my mind. But even then, I'm not entirely sure if one could make a justifiably lengthy article on the subject without repeating a lot of what you could say. I'm gonna side with Bummer on this one and say no.

 

[chuckaboomboom]

Shelved