Ursaluna can outdamage Roost.
252+ Atk Guts Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. +2 160 HP / 252+ Def Steel-type Skarmory: 194-230 (62.3 - 73.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
BTW, Focus Sash isn't allowed.
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Ursaluna can outdamage Roost.
252+ Atk Guts Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. +2 160 HP / 252+ Def Steel-type Skarmory: 194-230 (62.3 - 73.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Check:
Cinderace @ Choice Band
Ability: Libero
Tera Type: Fire
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Pyro Ball
- High Jump Kick
- U-turn
- Sucker Punch
252 Atk Choice Band Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Ursaluna: 560-662 (139.6 - 165%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Counter:
Hoopa @ Air Balloon
Ability: Magician
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
IVs: 0 Atk
Tera Type: Fighting
Timid Nature
- Psyshock
- Shadow Ball
- Focus Blast
- Filler move
Thanks to Air Balloon, Hoopa has one move less to worry about. And I'm honestly surprised Hoopa can tank a Fire Punch from this beast. I chose confined Hoopa over the obviously stronger form because of the neat Normal type immunity.
252+ Atk Guts Ursaluna Fire Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Hoopa: 215-254 (71.4 - 84.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. Air Balloon Hoopa: 0-0 (0 - 0%) -- possibly the worst move ever
If you hit the Focus Blast, Ursaluna is dead.
252+ SpA Hoopa Focus Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Ursaluna: 384-454 (95.7 - 113.2%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
But wait! Doesn't it fall just short of KO'ing? No it doesn't. If the previous attack was Guts boosted, then that means Ursaluna has already taken burn damage (6.25%) and is now dead. (95.7 + 6.25 = 101.95% = more than 100%)
Your calcs have Ursaluna at 0 HP, but the example one has 252 HP.