Hey all, now that WCOP is over (and our team won so we have the skill differential), I wanted to take a second to walk through my thoughts on the metagame, as well as my thoughts on some of the more controversial Pokemon.
I've made my thoughts clear on some matters like Tera Blast; I don't really know if it is super feasible to target at this time since it has not seen any egregious usage. Though I will say that I would heavily advise watching the later stages of WCOP if you really think it's a fringe strategy, between Tera Ice Landorus-T, Tera Ground Iron Crown, and Tera Fire/Ground Kyurem, the ability to have explosive coverage is not worth underestimating when the surprise factor alone is enough to warrant considering it alongside rounding off your coverage profile in a meaningful way. Either way, now isn't the time to talk about it, but I just wanted to mention that real quick.
In general, I think the tier is headed in a positive direction. Although there can be some very polarized matchups at times, I think that is sadly an inevitability in the wake of power creep; however, I don't think that's inherently a bad thing. Pokemon by nature is a game of matchups; to me, what really matters are the tools you have to work into bad ones. Tera, as much as it can be a tool to enforce positive matchups, is also one that can be a meaningful failsafe in bad matchups, and it's shown to be a great way to fortify teams into threatening Pokemon that are difficult to save room to work against without damaging team synergy. Tera aside, we have seen a great variety of offenses and balances throughout the course of WCOP, with a myriad of interesting Pokemon that provide unique sets of tools that advance gameplans in a way that are both really creative and highly practical. Tinkaton, for instance, is maybe one of the coolest Pokemon to see a rise in recent months for its utility profile and Pickpocket to reinforce hazard stacking structures and teams weak into Primarina or Kyurem. Another Pokemon I think is truly awesome is Iron Crown, which can be a great AV pivot and win condition that can also provide Future Sight support to leverage bulkier offenses that struggle to make progress more easily.
Obviously, the tier is not perfect, and while I have some hot takes, I'd like to share my thoughts on some Pokemon that have been at the forefront of discussion lately, and how I feel about them from my own experiences.
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Not Broken
Zamazenta is a pretty controversial Pokemon, and I think it definitely makes sense as to why. However, I've actually felt as though its presence is both healthy and reasonably manageable. It's true Body Press sets can be utterly egregious at times, but I think in that regard it's proven to be more of a punisher of bad teams than actually anything truly unmanageable. Obviously this is not to say that it isn't a phenomenal win condition regardless, but I do think that matchups where it has a particularly commanding matchup tend to be teams that are weak to Pokemon of a similar vein like Kingambit and Dragonite as well. Utilizing Tera Ghost (which is imo the best Tera type in the format regardless of Zamazenta anyway), status, some phazers, Booster Energy Pokemon, and durable Fighting-type resistances with Encore or Special attacks are not just easy to come by, but are outright good in the tier in general due to the saturation of offense. In terms of what it brings, it provides one of the best Speed control options available in the tier, a phenomenal blanket check to most Physical attackers, as well as a versatile win condition on a similar caliber as Kingambit but with more tools to lean into specific matchups. Personally I think its presence is really nice; it's undeniably the best Pokemon in the tier, but just because it's the best doesn't mean it's broken! I've appreciated having Zamazenta in the builder, and prepping for it is not really a chore either.
Keep an eye on
Similarly, I haven't really found Darkrai to be all that broken either. I do think it's a bit more borderline, admittedly, mainly because of how polarized its set variety has the potential to be, but I think in practice there are a couple big things that hold it back. The biggest, far and away, is its moveslot situation; if it doesn't want to run 4 attacks, it has to concede one of Ice Beam, Focus Blast, and Sludge Bomb. All three of these moves are really important for more dedicated wallbreaking variants. You want Ice Beam for bulkier Gliscor and Raging Bolt, Focus Blast for Kingambit and for hitting Dark-type resistances harder in general, and Sludge Bomb for Primarina and Iron Valiant. Will-O-Wisp and Knock Off variants can easily get away with dropping Focus Blast, but Nasty Plot + 3 attacks really can't. The situation is worsened if you want Will-O-Wisp and Nasty Plot at once, but these moves give you guaranteed progress which does improve the set's game-to-game value, but at the cost of explosive firepower. Aside from Choice Scarf there is no Speed boosting either, and with the Speed creep within the tier, it's not all that unreasonable to threaten out.
The biggest thing that keeps Darkrai in check, frankly, is the moveslot situation. It's true that you can't know for sure what beats it until you know what set it is, but the same applies for numerous other Pokemon in the tier like Iron Valiant and Dragapult, and unlike these two, having a less desirable set limits how much it can actually do in the early/mid game to a point where it's feasible enough to scout out and make a gameplan against. As long as your team has some level of Speed control, this is not a super tall order, and much like Zamazenta, not having some level of Speed control (or great defensive reinforcement, if not) is generally the mark of a dubious team.
From personal experience, I feel as though Knock/Wisp variants are definitely the best sets, with or without Nasty Plot, since it lets Darkrai find guaranteed value while still always having the ability to pose a threat by threatening to OHKO Gliscor and cleaning games with its Speed tier/coverage alone. All-Out Attacking comes after imo, since this set always has the ability to consistently wallbreak as it gets all 4 of the big moves you want your Darkrai to have, and it becomes even more reliable with a Life Orb in tow, especially on Rillaboom compositions where it can stick around longer and open up Rillaboom itself or a Grassy Seed cleaner. Choice Scarf with Trick (and sometimes Nasty Plot) follows a bit close behind for its anti-offense properties, and with Nasty Plot can be great into balance, too; this set is just outright healthy imo. Nasty Plot + 3 Attacks is good but less reliable.
I do support a suspect if people still find it problematic after OLT, but just because I support a suspect doesn't mean I support banning it. Personally I feel like I'd wind up voting DNB.
Borderline
Ogerpon-Wellspring is extremely borderline. I lean toward it being banworthy, but I think unlike some of its contemporaries it actually does provide some good with its utility movepool and as a wallbreaker. Like Darkrai, it really wants more than the 4 moves it is able to run. It wants Dragon-type coverage, Encore, U-turn, Knock Off, Swords Dance, Trailblaze, strong Grass-type STAB, all while Ivy Cudgel is non-negotiable. In this regard, it's not an unreasonable Pokemon to maneuver around in the early game, but once your Dragon-types are steadily overwhelmed, boosted Ivy Cudgel becomes an asinine move to play around, whether or not you resist it. Something else of note is that its counterplay will also change rather notably depending on its moves. If it's running Trailblaze, offense struggles far more into it; if it's running Encore/Swords Dance, your balance/fat will be throttled. By the time you know which of these it's running, it's usually too late, since its early/mid-game performance tends to not feature these moves and instead ones like Knock Off, U-turn, Ivy Cudgel, and Play Rough.
Truthfully, I'm not super sure whether I think it should be banned or not, and it's something I still have to develop my thoughts on in greater depth, but I think the fact that it can outright brute force Water-type resistances with its secondary STAB/Swords Dance/coverage is enough cause for concern in the long run, especially since without a dedicated answer, you will likely be run through one way or another by the right set in a way that feels pretty textbook imbalanced.
Broken
STILL THE BEST (1973)
Although I think it's had less commanding results as of late, I still feel as though Kyurem's dynamic with the tier is very unhealthy. The keyword here is unhealthy; I wouldn't call it outright broken exactly since the tier's offensive power creep really limits how much game-winning value you can get from it. Though, that being said, the tier would be better off without it. Counterplay is not only unreliable, but in many cases unsustainable in the long-run. To me Kyurem is an example of set variety that spreads counterplay too thin to a point where the way in which it can slot on options to deny potential checks to the primary variants are not only frustratingly noticeable, but outright optimal. The best example of this is with mixed Scale Shot/Dragon Dance variants that slot on Freeze-Dry. From the lens of a Special Attacker, having access to a high-power Physical STAB move is ruinous for Galarian Slowking, one of the better checks on the Special side. From the lens of a Physical Attacker, having access to Freeze-Dry is awfully annoying for Pokemon like Alomomola or Primarina to stomach.
As such, building against it isn't a super reliable method of deterring it, so a lot of it comes down to actually how you play around it. However this is a problem for a reason that I don't see people talking about super much with Kyurem. This is how it utilizes Tera Blast. I think if it were just Earth Power to hit Steel-types, the above situation would become easier to navigate by a great margin. It would overall become a bit more reasonable to play around, especially on the Physical side, but as long as Tera Blast remains in the tier, Steel-types are not reliable as scouts in the way you'd want them to be in order to outline a gameplan against Kyurem. In fact I think Tera Blast is actually what pushes it over the edge, much like Volcarona. Dragon Dance can boost the power of its Steel-type hitting coverage this way, making them more unreliable and greatly confuddling maneuvers into the Kyurem matchup. Because of this, it will usually force a pick or two. Even if it isn't Tera Blast, the potential of it being Tera Blast is enough to warp how you play around it.
I personally think removing Kyurem would be a great next step for the tier, as it would not only put less pressure on Steel-types, but also reducing pressure in scouting correctly around it.
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I have some thoughts on some other Pokemon as well, but if I haven't mentioned them here, they aren't anything I think are broken. Stay tuned, and have a good weekend :)