SPL XIV ADV Discussion Thread

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Colteor

Colteor

Free old gens in WCOP
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Welcome everyone to the prestigious 14th edition of Smogon Premier League! This is the thread for general discussion, replays, predictions, and anything else about the best tier that the best tournament has to offer! This thread will be updated with replays and usage stats throughout the season. Whether you're here to cheer on your favorite player, support a teammate, or play and innovate at the highest level, feel free to share your thoughts here!

Introduction
Schedule
Spreadsheet

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Pricelist

Starters in bold, subs/support in normal font.

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:entei: - Mikmer, dice, zf
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:raikou: - Altina, Shitrock enjoyer, Fear, Ojama
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:Suicune: - Golden Sun, Endill, Conflict
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:gardevoir-mega:- Triangles, Century Express
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:tyrantrum: - BKC, Jirachee, Star, dekzeh, reyscarface, RealJester, Leo
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:Snorlax: - Hclat, M Dragon, twash, xrn
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:alakazam-mega: - BIHI, pkThunderbolt, Umbry, Gefährlicher Random
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:Garchomp: - robjr, Sadlysius, Soulwind, bruno
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:Marowak-alola: - McMeghan
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:Lycanroc: - ArcticBreeze, Teclis, Luigi, Mana
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Power Rankings

Week 1
[SCO] BIHI vs mikmer [RUI] - 1, 2
[TIG] Altina vs Hclat [BIG]
[TYR] BKC vs ArcticBreeze [WOL]
[SHA] robjr vs Triangles [CLA]
[RAI] McMeghan vs Golden Sun [CRY]

Week 2
[WOL] ArcticBreeze vs robjr [SHA]
[BIG] Hclat vs McMeghan [RAI]
[RUI] mikmer vs BKC [TYR]
[CRY] Golden Sun vs BIHI [SCO]
[CLA] Triangles vs Altina [TIG]

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Usage Stats
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Code: 
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tyranitar          |   14 |  63.64% |  53.57% |
| 2    | Swampert           |   12 |  54.55% |  62.50% |
| 2    | Gengar             |   12 |  54.55% |  54.17% |
| 4    | Skarmory           |   10 |  45.45% |  50.00% |
| 5    | Zapdos             |    9 |  40.91% |  38.89% |
| 6    | Salamence          |    8 |  36.36% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Metagross          |    8 |  36.36% |  43.75% |
| 8    | Aerodactyl         |    6 |  27.27% |  66.67% |
| 9    | Celebi             |    5 |  22.73% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Claydol            |    4 |  18.18% |  62.50% |
| 10   | Blissey            |    4 |  18.18% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Jirachi            |    4 |  18.18% |  25.00% |
| 13   | Magneton           |    3 |  13.64% |  66.67% |
| 13   | Suicune            |    3 |  13.64% |  50.00% |
| 13   | Dugtrio            |    3 |  13.64% |  50.00% |
| 13   | Snorlax            |    3 |  13.64% |  50.00% |
| 13   | Breloom            |    3 |  13.64% |  33.33% |
| 13   | Charizard          |    3 |  13.64% |  16.67% |
| 13   | Flygon             |    3 |  13.64% |   0.00% |
| 20   | Smeargle           |    2 |   9.09% |  50.00% |
| 20   | Starmie            |    2 |   9.09% |  25.00% |
| 22   | Moltres            |    1 |   4.55% | 100.00% |
| 22   | Jolteon            |    1 |   4.55% | 100.00% |
| 22   | Kingdra            |    1 |   4.55% | 100.00% |
| 22   | Hariyama           |    1 |   4.55% | 100.00% |
| 22   | Regice             |    1 |   4.55% |   0.00% |
| 22   | Ninjask            |    1 |   4.55% |   0.00% |
| 22   | Marowak            |    1 |   4.55% |   0.00% |
| 22   | Misdreavus         |    1 |   4.55% |   0.00% |
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from MIKMER.​
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from BKC.​
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from TRIANGLES.​
 
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Week 1 is finally here, alongside a game that was played before I could even post! Thanks to Hclat and Altina for the rfn and here are the rest of our weekly matchups. As always go wild with any predictions or hot takes in this thread as well!
Also, instead of making two threads the prediction form this year will be hosted in this thread. Here is the form for week 1!
 
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For me, the highlight Week 1 matchup is definitely BKC vs ArcticBreeze.

Arctic has, in my opinion, shown fantastic playing ability and building in his relatively short time of serious ADV play. His auction price reflected this, even if most surely didn't expect such a high price for him pre-draft. Support from manager ABR seems like an absolute dream duo, and Arctic could potentially be one of the breakout stars of this entire tournament.

BKC has not played this tier in tournament, as far as I know, in maybe 18 months and wasn't particularly active before that. However, he is one of the GOATs and has dominated SPL, including a terrific 7-2 in ADV the last time he played in this tournament 3 years ago. BKC's performance, both this week and going forward, may come down to his level of dedication. He could potentially enjoy fantastic support from both current and past ADVers alike in Jirachee, Jester, Star, Dekzeh, Leo, Reyscarface, PDC, and Marcop.

It's very hard to bet against experienced vs inexperienced, but I won't be shocked if Arctic pulls off the relative upset. Can't wait for this one!
 
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35% [SCO] BIHI vs mikmer [RUI] 65%
It is going to be hard to predict BIHI to win week 1 when this is the first time he will play it. I think BIHI will become a safer bet later in the season when we have seen more from him, if there is anyone on this site right now to take on a new tier during SPL it would be BIHI to be one of the most successful picks to pull it off. mikmer, on the other hand, is definitely one of the most solid all round ADV mainers at the moment shown by his 3-2 CI record and he also has some nice support from dice which could lead to some spicy teams catching BIHI off-guard as he is still "new" to ADV.
[TIG] Altina vs Hclat [BIG]
happened already, I honestly predicted Hclat would win so ill count that as a wrong prediction.
60% [TYR] BKC vs ArcticBreeze [WOL] 40%
Talk about a contrast in experience, ArcticBreeze is playing his first SPL game ever whereas BKC is playing for the 56th time! Even though first-season nerves always come into play, this matchup is closer than it looks. BKC is coming fresh out of a long tournament playing break but has the most stacked ADV support I have ever seen. I am sure they will get him right into shape setting him up for a great season. As for ArcticBreeze he has great support from one of the best ADV'ers and players of all time in ABR. I'm sure ABR will make sure ArcticBreeze doesn't bring a set like Tail Whip Blissey and provide enough sanity to the craziness of Arctic's building at times. ArcticBreeze has really made a breakthrough this year by making a run through play-ins in CI and ending 2-2 in the main event which is very impressive for a first-timer.
40% [SHA] robjr vs Triangles [CLA] 60%
Even though robjr is the current ADV ribbon holder it's gonna be hard to predict him to win in this matchup vs one of the all-time ADV greats in Triangles. robjr has shown great potency in ADV last year as he subbed into it for the Sharks and played some good games and this year I can see him grabbing a few wins more than last year. Triangles is back to playing SPL after a long time and has been pretty involved with ADV as well in the past year. He landed a respectable 13-16 place in CI ending with a 2-2 record which may be below his standard but it shows he is definitely trained to take on SPL after the playing break.
60% [RAI] McMeghan vs Golden Sun [CRY] 40%
God damn these guys have been playing since SPL III and SPL II respectively and they are still going at it. Both players are all-time SPL-positive and have both played around 80 SPL games at this point! Because both have played numerous SPL's I decided to look back at all the times they have played each other; they played each other in ADV in SPL VI, SPL VII, SPL XII and McMeghan won all 3! Going back to present day we have seen Golden Sun out of SPL for a little bit so there is a potential rustiness but I doubt it comes that much into play when you are someone as seasoned as him. McMeghan has been very actively involved with ADV in the past few years but this year was a bit of a worse year with an 0-2 finish in CI. Still McMeghan is held in high regard by everyone as we can see from the #1 ranking on the power ranking this year.
 
Week 2 is here and the season is officially in full swing! Here are the weekly matchups, a lot of old vs new and exciting games to look forward to this week.

Also, every week the usage stats and prediction results will be included in a spoiler below the matchups. Make sure to check those out if you're interested!
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Week 1 Stats
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Code: 
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Swampert           |    9 |  75.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Tyranitar          |    8 |  66.67% |  43.75% |
| 3    | Salamence          |    6 |  50.00% |  50.00% |
| 4    | Gengar             |    5 |  41.67% |  50.00% |
| 4    | Metagross          |    5 |  41.67% |  30.00% |
| 6    | Zapdos             |    4 |  33.33% |  37.50% |
| 6    | Celebi             |    4 |  33.33% |  37.50% |
| 8    | Skarmory           |    3 |  25.00% |  66.67% |
| 8    | Snorlax            |    3 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 8    | Charizard          |    3 |  25.00% |  16.67% |
| 11   | Magneton           |    2 |  16.67% | 100.00% |
| 11   | Suicune            |    2 |  16.67% |  75.00% |
| 11   | Breloom            |    2 |  16.67% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Jirachi            |    2 |  16.67% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Dugtrio            |    2 |  16.67% |  25.00% |
| 11   | Starmie            |    2 |  16.67% |  25.00% |
| 11   | Claydol            |    2 |  16.67% |  25.00% |
| 18   | Aerodactyl         |    1 |   8.33% | 100.00% |
| 18   | Moltres            |    1 |   8.33% | 100.00% |
| 18   | Smeargle           |    1 |   8.33% | 100.00% |
| 18   | Jolteon            |    1 |   8.33% | 100.00% |
| 18   | Regice             |    1 |   8.33% |   0.00% |
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from MIKMER.
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from BKC.
  • Missing 1 Pokemon from TRIANGLES.
Week 2 prediction form
Week 1 Results
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4/1 predictions week 1.
week 1 recap + predictions for week 2.

45% [WOL] ArcticBreeze (0-1) vs (0-1) robjr [SHA] 55%
Early crit on lax helped Arctic get a good lead in week 1 vs BKC but ultimately his team was too weak to DDMence which resulted in a debut loss. I think Arctic played pretty well, perhaps you can have something to say about the missed stun spore on metagross as arctic but the loss to DDMence felt pretty inevitable unless there was some insane positioning where he never kills a mon with zard which seemed tough, but not impossible. Petaya pert was another cool touch of creativity but I'm afraid salac might've just been superior in this matchup (and maybe on this team in general, this is easy to say from my pov tho).
On the other hand, rob played also pretty well vs triangles last week. I only think not expecting hp grass gar on smear off is perhaps lazy? (this is again easier said as a spectator) and there was some discussion about the endure turn in the community. This endure turn may seem obvious to some (why else would tar DD alongside) but seems like one of those things that you forget in the heat of the moment.
Both players definitely had a good showing week 1 with a bad outcome. I think ill slightly edge it towards rob because the team in week 1 seemed more solid and he generally has more official tours experience than arctic but I'm very sure the wolfpack can get an edge in the builder if they have a ddmence check.

60% [BIG] Hclat (0-1) vs (1-0) McMeghan [RAI] 40%
Hclat lost week 1 in a very dynamic game where we saw a lot of momentum swings and a midgame important hydro miss from hclat's endpert on altinas defpert. Another notable turn that potentially decided the game was a semi-50/50 t27 that hclat got the worse end of. In the end hclat could've tried to position an agili meta but altina was aware of it and had good positioning to close out the game.
McMeghan won his week 1 game in an ugly game. There was a lot of hax involved in this game which was very influential to the outcome of this game. I often don't want to write off someone's win off of hax but I am pretty sure that if at least the missed leech seed's landed at the end there it would've been a victory for golden sun.
Both players did not look as convincing in week 1 as the PR would've suggested but I am personally a bit higher on hclat this year than on roro so ill give hclat the edge in this hotly anticipated clash.

45% [RUI] mikmer (1-0) vs (1-0) BKC [TYR] 55%
Week 1 we saw 2 games from mikmer because the first game was a very exciting tie! Mikmer brought a cool dug special offense which included 3 waters! There was again in this game an early crit (I'm starting to see a trend in these SPL games...) on the tar from dug which almost surely mattered given it was a pursuit tar from BIHI. But unless it was a lum suittar, which is very possible, if the wisp landed on the turn before it would've been in range of dug eq anyways. This dug did continue to put in a lot of work so if it was a lum tar this game is potentially hard robbed? After that, we also see double crit on the pert vs lax exchange. I feel this can be seen as a bad thing for both players so it kinda evens out? BIHI makes a nice endgame closing it out with the booms to send us to game 2. In the 2nd game mikmer looked really dominant and made some super great tar moves to get a huge lead and he keeps this lead in a pretty clean well-played game.
BKC played really well week 1 with the great ddmence clean up even though u could say he did not need much to get this cleanup going. But ill give credit where it's due as he forced good damage onto arctics pert which seemed to be the main ddmence check with some clever doubles with his metagross. I would even go as far as that BKC was maybe not tested very hard in this game since it was almost a builder win. So I'm excited to see how he will fare in the upcoming weeks when it'll likely not be builder wins.
This being said BKC is still one of the greatest ADV'ers of all time and with him seemingly getting right into shape week 1 there looks to be very little in this pool that can possibly stop him. I will say though that mikmer also looks to be one of the best contenders for this season if he keeps playing as he did in week 1 game 2. Small edge to BKC bc of his all-time experience.

60% [CRY] Golden Sun (0-1) vs (0-1) BIHI [SCO] 40%
Golden Sun looked strong week 1 as he was mainly beaten by his own poor luck and showed no signs of rustiness or being "washed". I found it pretty commendable how he kept coming back and if he keeps us these plays he will give everyone a hard time in this pool. His team also looked pretty nice, very similar to what we saw in mikmer vs bihi game 1. I think Golden Sun will be out for blood after this game and I wouldn't want to be his opponent right now.
Speaking of his opponent BIHI made his ADV debut and in game 1 he showed pretty good stuff. He had to deal with some dugtrio crit which may or may not have mattered depending on the item as I mentioned before. The teams looked solid so if there were any concerns about that given his inexperience in ADV, those concerns should be gone now. In game 2 he looked worse but that's also due to how formidable mikmer played. I do think going to game 2 was unpleasant for him. Given that he probably practiced way more with the game 1 team than the probable emergency game 2 team he could've felt a bit uncomfortable playing that team.
I think Golden Sun is and should always be the favorite in this game given his long history of ADV prowess and his overall skill level in this tier. Not to discredit BIHI who probably played better than most people would in their first ADV game on the big stage but I am not surprised as he just is that good. I do think we will see BIHI win games sooner than later but for now, I will again have to bold against him.

51% [CLA] Triangles (1-0) vs (1-0) Altina [TIG] 49%
Triangles looked pretty heat week 1 with a numerous amount of techs. Fake out smeargle was my personal favorite, its not as exciting as the other game-winning endure tech but it solves an issue I have often with smeargle as a lead, which is scouting out the lum tars to decide if u go for spore or not. The techs really carried Triangles this game I feel, since the team structure he is using is pretty known and most people will know how to dance around it. So props to him for finding these micro-optimizations because that will continue to win games for you if you keep on having those.
Altina loaded his trusty ddmence but not with the usual teammates he usually has. It was unsure for me how fresh his play would be given he has not been seen in tournaments since last SPL but he looked pretty ready to me, especially after that well-played endgame. Defeating Hclat in the first game of the season could definitely be a sign of good things to come.
I'll give the smallest of edges to Triangles this week as both players really looked solid week 1 and I think this can swing really either way. The only reason ill give Triangles the edge is the surprise factor of the techs he brings that could just shake up the dynamic of the game and cause a huge momentum swing. This is definitely the closest matchup of the week for me.
 
Week 3 has dropped and we get our first sub after superman spam and Hclat failing to get bp banned some exciting games last week! Good luck to Sadlysius and all our other players, as always here are the matchups, stats, and predictions.
[SCO] BIHI vs Hclat [BIG]
[RAI] McMeghan vs Triangles [CLA]
[RUI] mikmer vs Golden Sun [CRY]
[TIG] Altina vs ArcticBreeze [WOL]
[TYR] BKC vs Sadlysius [SHA]​

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Week 2 Stats
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Code: 
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Gengar             |    7 |  70.00% |  57.14% |
| 1    | Skarmory           |    7 |  70.00% |  42.86% |
| 3    | Tyranitar          |    6 |  60.00% |  66.67% |
| 4    | Aerodactyl         |    5 |  50.00% |  60.00% |
| 4    | Zapdos             |    5 |  50.00% |  40.00% |
| 6    | Blissey            |    4 |  40.00% |  50.00% |
| 7    | Swampert           |    3 |  30.00% | 100.00% |
| 7    | Metagross          |    3 |  30.00% |  66.67% |
| 7    | Flygon             |    3 |  30.00% |   0.00% |
| 10   | Claydol            |    2 |  20.00% | 100.00% |
| 10   | Salamence          |    2 |  20.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Jirachi            |    2 |  20.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Dugtrio            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Kingdra            |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Celebi             |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Hariyama           |    1 |  10.00% | 100.00% |
| 13   | Ninjask            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Suicune            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Magneton           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Smeargle           |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Marowak            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Breloom            |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
| 13   | Misdreavus         |    1 |  10.00% |   0.00% |
Week 3 prediction form
Week 2 Results
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(x/10) number ignoring Hax

BIHI vs Hclat (8.5/10 games) - Hclat, when he cares, should win this in dominant fashion. If he's still looking to get BP banned and tries to cheese, then things get dicey.

McMeghan vs Triangles (6/10 games) - two titans of ADV squaring off makes this hard for me to pick just one player but I think Triangles is playing just a touch better. the MU I'm most excited for this week.

Mikmer vs Golden Sun (7/10 games) - IDK if I'm talking out of my ass here but I'm generally not into the 6's we've seen Golden Sun bring these first two weeks, and while both are good players, I think Mikmer will likely walk into the game a halfstep ahead.

Altina vs ArcticBreeze (8.5/10 games) - Arctic showed he's warming up to SPL last week after a hard-fought win vs robjr, but he's going to struggle vs a player with the kind of experience that Altina has.

BKC vs Sadly (8/10 games) - Sadly's stepping in for RobJr here, and I think it's big shoes to fill, esp vs playing one of the most storied ADV mains in smogon history.
 
Triangles vs bihi 8/10 - Triangles has been showing why he's worth respect.
Endill vs bkc 7/10 - New sub, excited to see what he brings, but Kev is the better player here on paper
sadlysius vs altina 7.5/10 - The current ADV landscape is defined by what altina was using a few months ago, and I'm still convinced he can continue that kind of innovation and play
hclat vs mikmer 6/10 -might be a hot take but I'm really not into what clatterson's been doing and I think mikmer's generally walking in with both momentum and structure
Arctic vs Roro 8.5/10 - widest gap between players by far, and I think roro will be able to effectively shut arctic out
 
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