Smogon Snake Draft IV - Week 7

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Merritt

Merritt

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>Spreadsheet<
> Schedule <
Shoutouts: Ticken for the sheet improvements and Serene Grace for the schedule sheet!​

Tournament Rules and General Guidelines

Matchups:

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Rumble Hall Rattlers (5) vs (5) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: lax vs Rexus
OU: talah vs BK
OU: Samqian vs John W
OU: Kebab mlml vs ramboss
DOU: Ezrael vs Nails
UU: CBU vs hs
RU: Ajna vs odr
NU: bugzinator vs Kushalos
PU: Vulpix03 vs Skipkan
LC: Serene Grace vs Xizaaa

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Black City Mambas (4) vs (6) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: xray vs Tamahome
OU: Relous vs Vaboh
OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi
DOU: Frania vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Sabella vs Askov
RU: eifo vs Mazinger
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn
PU: Ktütverde vs obii
LC: Wail Wailord vs tko

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Lanakila Nagas (3) vs (7) Ambrette Astrotias

OU: ima vs BIHI
OU: Regnite vs Raiza
OU: robjr vs Tace
OU: Sacri' vs Finchinator
DOU: Memoric vs Paraplegic
UU: SoulWind vs Accelgor
RU: Kink vs Feliburn
NU: elodin vs GW
PU: false vs z0mOG
LC: Ninjadog vs LilyAC

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Celadon City Cobras (6) vs (3) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: FMG vs Lopunny Kicks
OU: mncmt vs Leo
OU: 1 True Lycan vs frisoeva
OU: TPP vs Bloody alfa
DOU: Qwello Lee vs qsns
UU: Lilburr vs pokemonisfun
RU: snaga vs soulgazer
NU: Sjneider vs CyberOdin✝
PU: Xiri vs Santu
LC: Z Strats vs Kingler

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Sky Tower Lindworms (6) vs (4) Terminus Taipans

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs dice
OU: Jytcampbell vs High Impulse
OU: beatiful vs Void
OU: Garay oak vs Eeveeto
DOU: umbreon098 vs Kiichikos
UU: Moutemoute vs Adaam
RU: Pepeduce vs Expulso
NU: Realistic Waters vs aim
PU: TJ vs tlenit
LC: dcae vs Osh​

Deadline will be October 18th, 9:00 PM GMT-4.
 
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no johns prediction for no john matcha

OU: Samqian vs John W - John W is more experienced and has a better grasp on teambuilding, seemingly carving out his own identity as a standout SS OU player ever since WCOP. I expect him to bounce back from a pretty mediocre start thus far. Still high on Samqian, but this is a rough match-up. I think John W has a better grasp on long-term game management as well.
 
Been a while since I did predicts, but I like doing them and predicts were a bit dry last week. I'll try to be as fair as possible from what ive seen so far. Good luck to everyone competing for playoffs!

Black City Mambas (3) vs (1) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: xray vs Tamahome - Even though xray got off to a tough start, he has managed to turn it into a 3-3 record and has been one of the best SS OU players in smogon tour thus far. On the other hand tama has been the best ss ou player for the serpents which is probably not a good thing for the serpents to succeed with how hyped up this ou core was going into the season. I expect a close game with this easily being one of the highlight ou battles for this week, but xray has really been in form lately and has been using creative teams so i'll favor him.

OU: Relous vs Vaboh - Not sure if relous was busy the past few weeks or was just not enjoying the meta, but at this stage the Mambas don't really have another option with Zden losing 3 in a row. I think Vaboh is pretty solid from what I've seen, but I think the Mambas have been better as a team the past few weeks and that definitely matters this late into a season. I expect relous to get back into form to help the mambas push for playoffs. Decent edge for Relous

OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star - I've never heard of this guy until a few weeks ago, however he has looked very solid while being reliable after Relous moved to the bench. A lot of people regard star very highly but he hasn't lived up to the hype thus far with getting 1 of his 2 wins through activity and this is pretty much a do or die for the Serpents so im not sure what to expect. This is a must win for Star and I think he is definitely favored with more experience as a player, but im going with the hot hand.

OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi - Watashi went from the best ou player in the first 3 weeks to losing 3 in a row and to be honest he doesn't seem very invested in this meta, but I think he'll show up big time in a must win week for his team. This was tough for me since I think random is a great new player and has played an important role in the mambas comeback. Easily could go either way and this is another great game to catch for this week.

Lanakila Nagas (2) vs (2) Ambrette Astrotias


OU: ima vs BIHI - Ima has been really good and very calculated with how he has approached his snake games in the prep aspect. He could easily be undefeated if a few things went his way vs ewin, but still I think you can make a legitimate case that hes been the best ss ou player through 6 weeks. I don't expect him to slow down here even though Bihi has been a solid player for the Astrotias. 3 more for 8-3....

OU: Regnite vs Raiza - Rip storm zone.... I haven't seen enough of Regnite to bold him here but he did win his only ou game of the tour so thats a positive for sure. Raiza has been good and definitely more proven of the two players so yeah easy bold imo. Could go either way.

OU: robjr vs Tace - Tough one to choose, but for some reason I favor rob in this one. From what I've seen, neither of these guys have been building much this snake so you can expect two solid balance/bo teams and I think it'll come down to who plays better compared to the prep aspect. Obviously Tace is capable and has been solid so far, but I expect the Nagas to bounce back after last week.

OU: Sacri' vs Finchinator - The highlight game of this series and a great one for the spectators to catch. Finch has been playing at a high level the past few weeks and has really helped the Astrotias make a decent ou core into a very good one. I expect finch to put in the effort for definitely the biggest game of his snake season in a must win week. Sacri has looked great too and I probably would have bolded him vs everyone else in the Astrotias, but thats what makes this match a great one for the spectators to catch. Looking forward to what both these guys bring.

Celadon City Cobras (2) vs (2) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: FMG vs Lopunny Kicks - It's pretty obvious as to why punny would be favored here, but FMG is very capable and has been a bit unlucky this season. Both these guys like to use bulkier teams so i'm curious as to how each player approaches this game and I definitely expect some cool techs from punny. Could go either way for sure

OU: mncmt vs Leo - mncmt has earned the right to be favored vs most of the ss ou pool with a great ost run and a solid olt campaign thus far. Leo has been good but this is definitely his biggest test and a win here would be a great confidence booster for an underachieving OU core to bounce back for the final few weeks.

OU: 1 True Lycan vs frisoeva - Before I address this game, I think moving friso back to OU was 100% the correct move. Santu is coming off a slam win and has clearly been frustrated with his OU games so moving him to a lower tier and putting a very capable player in Friso back to OU is proper by the management to try and save the season. I think while this move is needed, its probably too late for the bushmasters to bounce back at this point. I'm not sure what exactly went wrong for this team, but its been very rough for these guys with the most hyped ou core underperforming and tying 4/6 weeks. 1TL on the other hand has been great and I don't expect him to slow down. Tough draw for friso

OU: TPP vs Bloody alfa - Alfa seems to be getting his confidence back but as I mentioned, its probably a bit late. They really needed him to perform early in the season which is unfortunate because he's been playing well as of late. I think TPP has improved a lot in these tour games and im happy that he's been playing well after a few unfortunate losses in the past. I'll favor the wcop standout to get another win in hopes of the bushmasters making a comeback.

Gl to everyone playing, really looking forward to some of these games
 
Rumble Hall Rattlers (4) vs (6) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: lax vs Rexus: very close one. rexus's plays and MUs have been more impressive, so going with the upset here.
OU: talah vs BK: literally the worst draw for talah's style on this team.
OU: Samqian vs John W: already happened but you know i was predicting it this way anyway...
OU: Kebab mlml vs ramboss: a slumping kebab, wielding more boring teams than usual vs a solid ramboss.

DOU: Ezrael vs Nails
UU: CBU vs hs: he beat soulwind so who fucking knows. literally the only time i've bolded cbu all tour so i swear to god if i'm wrong LMAO.
RU: Ajna vs odr
NU: bugzinator vs Kushalos: really exciting game.
PU: Vulpix03 vs Hamhamhamhamham
LC: Serene Grace vs Xizaaa

i think the rattlers have capped. they can definitely make playoffs from here, but their skill ceiling is much lower than the leviathans. the rats really need to smash the lower tiers and win at least one of the overall unfavorable OU matchups to have a shot here. the levis have proven to be a fairly swingy team, but after being victims of a cheating scandal week 5 and beating the second best team (hax aside) week 6, i think they are more likely to be on an upward swing instead of a downward one.

Black City Mambas (7) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: xray vs Tamahome: xray has recovered from his poor start, but tamahome is the biggest challenge he faces in awhile. not to mention, tama has had some of the tougher MUs in this tour: tace, sacri, BK... yet he still looks as dominant as ever.
OU: Relous vs Vaboh: both looking pretty weak, but relous has more success historically.
OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star: lbp2 will definitely be a headache for star, who has been looking kinda weak.
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi: felix is a strong player, but he is a tier or so below FLCL. this is a good opportunity for FLCL to bounce back.

DOU: Frania vs DLT JRL BELL
UU: Sabella vs Askov
RU: Charmflash vs Mazinger
NU: Ho3nConfirm3d vs Jrdn
PU: Ktütverde vs obii
LC: Wail Wailord vs tko

the mambas have gone against a deck very much stacked against them, and now they are facing the hostage takers. my actual thoughts on that whole debacle aside, i think the fairly one sided rivalry here might be an opportunity for the mambas to rally together, especially given the personalities on the team.

Lanakila Nagas (5) vs (5) Ambrette Astrotias

OU: ima vs BIHI: ima is on one of his positive swings right now, and when this happens there's no stopping him really.
OU: Regnite vs Raiza: i'm actually a big fan of regnite. teamed with him in OUPL and he was a great presence. he played well in his one game, but there just isn't too much to go off against a player as solid as raiza. still rooting for him to succeed n_n
OU: robjr vs Tace: pretty close one; i would rank both similarly in skill (quite high). gotta let the midwest bias be the tiebreaker here.
OU: Sacri' vs Finchinator: if you thought there was a lot of arguing after finch vs xray... let's just hope nobody haxes anyone in this one ok?

DOU: Memoric vs Paraplegic: he fell back to earth but man im still rooting for him let's get it man.
UU: SoulWind vs Accelgor
RU: Kink vs Feliburn
NU: elodin vs GW
PU: false vs z0mOG
LC: Ninjadog vs LilyAC

i have started to grow fond of the astrotias, so much so they i think they could tie against the nagoats. the nagas, sadly, have been looking less hot than usual lately. given the amount of complaining i saw in public last week, i worry for how their internal team environment is. it would be a real shame if such an impressive team threw it all away because of some misfortune. the astros probably didn't make the right move keeping GW in for NU, but subbing out keppy was a step in the right direction. honestly, i think both of these teams will make playoffs, so i'm more interested for their future MUs than this one.

Celadon City Cobras (6) vs (4) Berry Forest Bushmasters

OU: FMG vs Lopunny Kicks: punny's been back at it, whereas FMG has yet to recapture his WCoP 2019 magic.
OU: mncmt vs Leo: very one sided.
OU: 1 True Lycan vs frisoeva: friso has been looking not so hot, but putting him in OU so santu can farm lower tiers is probably the right move.
OU: TPP vs Bloody alfa: i actually think these two are about even in skill. TPP seemed more confident last week, so i'm hoping he can do it this week in a bit of an upset. yeah, this one is kinda biased.

DOU: Qwello Lee vs qsns
UU: Lilburr vs pokemonisfun
RU: snaga vs soulgazer
NU: Sjneider vs CyberOdin✝
PU: Xiri vs Santu: yeah sadly that whole thing i said about santu farming lower tiers is not too relevant in this one...
LC: Z Strats vs Kingler

i rated the cobras very highly initially, and i thought the bushmasters were overall solid enough. still, both teams have been plagued with some serious underperformance... the bushmasters much more than the cobras, sadly.

Sky Tower Lindworms (5) vs (5) Terminus Taipans

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs dice: i feel like he came back just to play this one, and where eo seems like the type to be more nervous against his friends, dice is the type to want to show them who's boss.
OU: Jytcampbell vs High Impulse: this one can really go either way. i swear i typed that and THEN i checked their records and... both are 3-3! wild.
OU: beatiful vs Void: this one's gonna be goofy as hell.
OU: Garay oak vs Eeveeto: i haven't been too impressed by garay, whereas eeveeto has proven to be a fairly consistent player lately.

DOU: umbreon098 vs Kiichikos
UU: Moutemoute vs Adaam
RU: Pepeduce vs Expulso
NU: Realistic Waters vs aim: i think this one will decide the series. if they play last, switch my predict to aim.
PU: TJ vs tlenit
LC: dcae vs Osh

sadly, a tie would eliminate the tiepans, but this one is a really big uphill battle. not to mention, my predicts were definitely hopeful for this group... the lindworms don't seem like the type to bring total nonsense even though they are already in, but i guess that's gonna be the big hope for the taipans to win this one. still though, the lindworms OU core has started to perform worse, and with cheatwin gone and beautiful subbed in, they don't really have any remidies for that here on out. while this is the most dominant team in the tour by far, come playoffs, i don't think they will be as unbeatable as before.
good luck to all players.
 
12/20 last week, 65/109 overall. When I started doing these I didn't realise how much of a time commitment this is but hey, season is nearly over so can't complain and going over each weeks replays has been fairly interesting. Let's get into it!

OU: lax vs Rexus - Back to back losses won't knock me off the lax hypetrain just yet, but this game should be a good one. Rexus has been great so far (when he's played) so looking forward to this
OU: talah vs BK - The Fear experiment is over and while that might be the correct decision, I find it impossible to predict against BK atm. He's been strong as hell in Stour in addition to his stellar 5-1 record bringing some extremely solid teams throughout
OU: Samqian vs John W - Already happened which is slightly frustrating since I would've picked John for sure
OU: Kebab mlml vs ramboss - ramboss was bailed by a timely crit on Storm's Zeraora last week but Kebab hasn't been particularly impressive either. Could go either way but I think Kebab bounces back here

OU: xray vs Tamahome - Fresh off win 100 I'm expecting Tama to continue his dominance in this tour. That being said, xray's impressive Stour in SS is definitely noteworthy and I'm expecting a great game between two of the best
OU: Relous vs Vaboh - Been a pretty shaky start for Vaboh but I've still got faith in him to put some more wins on the board. Relous' return to the lineup was to be expected with ZDen struggling, but he hasn't been particularly great either
OU: LittleBigPlanet2 vs Star - LBP2 keeps coming with the fun looking offenses and I'm loving it, he's been playing well in contrast to Star who's only got 1 win to his name this tour (not counting the act win)
OU: Gefährlicher Random vs watashi - TDR has quietly been picking up some impressive wins and I'm a fan while Fooly has come crashing down to Earth after a brilliant start, but him losing 4 in a row seems extremely unlikely to me

OU: ima vs BIHI - 8-3 in snake looks more and more likely by the week, he's been outlandishly good and it's a mistake to predict against him
OU: Regnite vs Raiza - Not sure if Storm is busy or if that crit last week tilted him but Raiza is clearly the stronger player here, been loving his team choices and his plays under pressure have been brilliant
OU: robjr vs Tace - Fairly even matchup, but I find Tace to be more impressive in the tier even if he's been having a rough patch
OU: Sacri' vs Finchinator - Highlight game for sure, Sacri has some great wins and Finch has shown that he's still one of the best. Hard to call, gut says Sacri takes it however since he's had the more impressive win

OU: FMG vs Lopunny Kicks - Been a horrific season for the Bushmasters but at the very least it appears Punny is surging again, FMG hasn't had the best time this tour so gonna go with Punny
OU: mncmt vs Leo - mncmt has been a top 5 player putting in consistently strong performances week after week, Leo's been decent but definitely hasn't shown enough to make me bold him here
OU: 1 True Lycan vs frisoeva - friso has rotated back into OU with Santu wanting a break but I don't see him beating the Baron who's been strong all tour
OU: TPP vs Bloody alfa - alfa seems to be getting back into the swing of things so I favour him, although TPP showed signs last week that he could close the season out strong

OU: Eo Ut Mortus vs dice - It appears Analytic has sold his soul to get dice back in the lineup but I believe it will be in vain, Eo has been amazing this tour and in the 3 games dice played he looked completely out of it
OU: Jytcampbell vs High Impulse - After a hot start Jyt has struggled and Impulse has actually put together a good string of results lately, gonna go with the hot hand
OU: beatiful vs Void -
☆Void: i wasnt allowed to sub out ban manaphy
☆Void: im drunk as shit
bea won while drunk week 5 Void lost week 6 while drunk, ez choice
OU: Garay oak vs Eeveeto - Fairly easy choice imo, Eeveeto has definitely been the stronger player of the two so far

Good luck to everyone!
 
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