Star (all) vs Altina
Altina is a formidable competitor in ADV and seems to be able to win games in GSC, but Star has more experience and success in both tiers. Couple this with Star already being super strong in BW, reaching DPP finals, and knowing RBY enough from years of experience and you get what seems to be a likely candidate for a clean sweep. Altina can flip the narrative if he takes a tier like ADV or BW, where Star's edge is seemingly lesser than others due to Altina's own experience, early on and holds that momentum, but it seems hard for anyone to beat Star in any format as of late.
McMeghan (DPP, ADV, GSC) vs watashi (BW, RBY)
Major highlight series. McMeghan is goat tier, but watashi is an awkward match-up for him in my eyes. watashi can plausibly beat anyone in any tier due to his fast-paced play and massive experience. His BW is probably a slim edge here as McMeghan has been less active in the tier recently and I think RBY is going to go his way just because of how good he is at making reads, but really McMeghan can take either of these and I would not be shocked. The others, besides ADV, should be pretty close, too, but McMeghan's greater amount of success should translate into more wins here. Probably one of the favorites to take it all if he gets a clean break. McMeghan's DPP run especially cements his case as a favorite, too, because he now has three 'dominant' tiers in my eyes with GSC/ADV also being strong from him. If he can channel his prime in BW, this could be McClassic VII. If not and some other things do not pan out, he could see an early exit here though.
Aliss (DPP, ADV, GSC, RBY) vs crucify (BW)
Aliss has done a good job establishing herself as a competitor in this format. She has a good amount of experience building and playing in the oldest generations, which is oftentimes harder for someone who began playing well after they were released and does not really have the same amount of official tournament experience as some other veterans. She knows 1-3 as well as just about anyone though and that should carry Aliss in this series. crucify has been super underrated in BW, tearing up many tournaments in the circuit, and I favor them there for sure. However, Aliss seems likely to win the remainder with DPP being the closest of the remaining if only because I am less sure of Aliss's comfort there.
erz vs ABR (all)
Rough draw for erz, but ABR is ABR. He knows all 5 tiers well, he will put his best foot forward in the builder, and his ability to assess risk seems better than anyone who is not super comfortable or experienced in these generations, which unfortunately applies to erz. Anything is possible with enough cheese or outplaying, but I gotta side decisively with ABR here until I am proven wrong.
frisoeva (GSC, RBY) vs august (BW, DPP, ADV)
Close set between two vastly different players, but august is coming off hot from a BW Cup victory and already has amazing DPP skills. His ADV game is decent enough to do the trick here and I think those 3 tiers could be enough. frisoeva is a versatile player and I know he can hold his own throughout all five, so I give him the edge in RBY and GSC because I am less familiar with august there. If ABR and the other East guys rubbed off on august enough over the years, he may be able to find some GSC success as well though. friso just does not stand out in any format to me here, so I struggle to say he is favored overall, but it may very well be a close set.
Exiline vs Mana (all)
Easiest bold of the round for me personally. Mana is a well-rounded player with great decision making who has continued to prove himself when he tries. Exiline is a good player and he has had success in these qualifiers and some Ubers tours, but probably should not have a good chance against Mana in any one tier and I worry about his ability to recover if things go downhill quick against a top opponent like Mana.
SoulWind (BW, DPP, ADV, RBY) vs spies (GSC)
SW has been the best player on the site for a while now I think. He really worked on consistency in recent years and it has shown in every single individual tournament -- literally all of them, he can be seen as a favorite. That's impressive. His RBY is sneaky good, too, so this is not even a 'good' match-up for spies, who you would think could take RBY/GSC from most. He is going to need to find a way to do that here and then steal one of the other 3, but I do not think SoulWind will let that happen. I think SoulWind will hold his ground where he needs to and even win a close RBY game. Tough draw for spies, who is a sneaky good pick for those looking for an underdog if he is to try to learn modern DPP and BW for this.
Stareal (GSC) vs Bushtush (BW, DPP, ADV, RBY)
Closer set than many imagine because Stareal is an underrated player who learns quickly. Seriously, give the kid some props for qualifying for Classic as a literal zoomer. I am really proud of Stareal for this and hope it translates into a long span of success across whatever tier he favors, be it one of these or SS. With this said, Bush has been HOT lately. Man rakes in every format he needs to, including these. I think his BW and ADV are great, which is particularly tough for Stareal as his BW is usually one he can take vs most guys. I think Bushtush holds his own in most of these and does just enough to take the set even if Stareal prepares well and continues to learn. Bush is definitely a dark-horse pick to win this whole thing and I would love to see that run.
