RBY UU Dragonite Suspect Test [Dragonite remains UU]

[Plague von Karma]

Approved by the RBY Council, reasoning wrote with assistance from Lusch.

RBY UU Dragonite Suspect Test​

After much deliberation between myself, the RBY Community Discord, the RBY Council, and Tiering Admins over the course of months, it's finally time for RBY UU to receive its first tiering action in around a decade. The RBY Council will be suspect testing Dragonite in the coming week. We will be using some of the DPP Arena Trap Suspect Test methodologies since it best suits our tier's playerbase. For clarity, this suspect test has been approved by the RBY Council and Hogg, and we aim for this to help set precedent for future Old Gen Lower-Tier Suspect Tests. For those without badges, there will be a mirror post in Ruins of Alph.

To clear up potential misconceptions, RBY UU was not subject to the Tier Lock which was recently lifted. This suspect test has been in the works for months, with much debate about how to go about it along with waiting for various tournaments to end. The RBY Council decided to take full advantage of the tiering staff's blessing to further improve the tier, and we're finally seeing this bear fruit. With UUFPL's RBY games being completely over, it's high time this finally got pushed out.

To avoid a complex ban in an already secluded tier, as well as allow for further experimentation to determine the core issue, it has been decided that Dragonite will be suspect tested first, rather than the strategy itself. Like the way BW Excadrill was returned to OU, in the event of a ban, a retest will be explored in the future with Instant-Runoff Voting to see whether we should ban AgiliWrap and bring Dragonite back instead. All players who qualify to vote on the current Suspect Test will automatically be locked into this hypothetical retest.

Reasoning
Before we begin, while Wrap has consistently been a point of contention in RBY, it has been seen as a positive presence in UU thanks to the pivoting capabilities it provides, creating a chess-like, skill-intensive tier that many players enjoy. Shellnuts provides a class act of a post here that perfectly encapsulates the RBY community’s view on the topic of Wrap itself. Because of this and its nature as a metagame fixture in RBY UU, banning Wrap is completely off the table; to ban it would remove the tier’s identity and thus be too drastic a shift to justify.

Dragonite is well-known among RBY enthusiasts for its access to the combination of Agility and Wrap, colloquially referred to as "AgiliWrap". AgiliWrap’s problematic behaviour in the metagame needs no introduction: when a Pokemon has the ability to boost itself and become faster than the whole metagame, partial trapping becomes an extremely oppressive force, leading to up to 32 turns of some of the most one-sided game states in Pokemon history. This gives the victim little to no counterplay outside of either PP stall, praying for a miss to land something like Blizzard, Thunder Wave, Toxic, or lose. The sheer damage that Dragonite can deal to an opposing team while all this is happening is frankly ridiculous, often making the rest of the game very easy for Dragonite and the rest of its team to clean up. All it needs is a single turn of opportunity, and it could well be curtains.

However, the strategy has some holes, which is partly why it wasn't banned years ago, and Dragonite has never been on the same level as Tentacruel. Its consistency is mathematically improbable, requiring many hits of Wrap that could either amount to nothing or everything, making whether it makes an impact during a game a bit of a tossup. A single miss leaves Dragonite wide open, which can be fatal: Toxic causes the Wrap user to take more damage than it deals and Dragonite can always be blown away by Blizzard. Both of these moves have comparable accuracy to Wrap, though, and thus, the odds still aren’t great for the player, and not every Pokemon will have the ability to OHKO Dragonite. Ergo, even with these flaws, the strategy is still overwhelmingly powerful and forces a very unbalanced game state should it go off.

Regardless of these flaws, this has led to the metagame centralising increasingly around Wrap. For example, Toxic sees use almost strictly due to AgiliWrap Dragonite...trust me when I say people aren't preparing for Bind Pinsir. On that note, removing Dragonite could allow Toxic users like Persian and Dugtrio to diversify their strategies. This reflects in spectators and players alike showing extreme distaste for the strategy. On the flip side, Toxic adds a good deal of scouting; "Does Dugtrio have Toxic, or is Dragonite safe?", "Does Persian have Bubble Beam, or is Golem safe?", it's just on a much larger scale for Dragonite VS Toxic in particular. There is also cause to believe that it's fine to just accept the Toxic situation as something akin to Hidden Power Grass for a dominant Water/Ground-type like Quagsire or Swampert in later generations.

Overall, while Tentacruel has given the tier the reputation of being “the Wrap tier”, the RBY Council believes that Dragonite specifically pushes it to a point where it might not be considered healthy anymore. This is because while trying to deny an opposing Dragonite the opportunity to set up Agility is part of the skillset required in RBY UU, small mistakes or a Blizzard/Toxic miss can grant the Dragonite user a disproportionate advantage.

Live Suspect Tournament Qualification
For those with an interest in RBY UU, we will be hosting Live Suspect Tournaments on smogtours.psim.us to give everyone a chance to qualify. These aren't like your regular PS Live Room Tours, so if you want an idea on how to sign up for these and how they work, check the Smogon Tour subforum and the ORAS Aegislash Live Suspect Tour thread. These will be Single Elimination BO1, akin to the RoA Tour series and other Suspect Live Tournaments.

We will take the Top 2 players from each of these tournaments, and Dragonite will be legal during them. In the event an already qualified individual snatches a top placement, we will hand it down to the next-highest placer. This will guarantee 6 voters in addition to our pre-qualified players.

Here's your schedule;

Date: Friday 4th June 2021
Time: 9 PM GMT-4
Host: SBPC
Result: EB0LA win, El Cadaver and Plague von Karma qualify.
Thread link

Date: Saturday 5th June 2021
Time: 4 PM GMT-4
Host: Aurodian
Result: Ice Yazu win, Ice Yazu and meloyy qualify.
Thread link

Date: Sunday 6th June 2021
Time: 8 PM GMT+1
Host: HSOWA
Result: Jyuux win, Jyuux and Lilburr qualify.
Thread link

Thanks to kjdaas for assisting with sorting these out!

Pre-Requisite Qualification
The pre-requisite criteria for voting is as follows; if you're listed here, great! You don't have to participate in a Live Suspect Tournament. Due to middling tournament representation, we had to really dig for results, but the players we got were all of enough prestige to see it as viable. For Team Tournaments, we're taking precedent from the ORAS UU Conkeldurr vote, which happens to perfectly fit what we needed to increase our voter pool, including making the final count an odd number to help prevent ties. A simple majority of 50%+1 will be the ban threshold, so factoring in the users from the Live Suspect Tours, 11 ban votes will send Dragonite to UUBL.

Our methodology is as follows;

• Top 2 highest win records in the RoA Spotlight Tour for 2021.​
• Top 2 placements in RoA Olympics 5 and 4.​
• Players who played at least 4 games in RBYPL or UUFPL while winning at least 1 of them.​

Through this methodology, here's how the qualification plays out, including duplicates;

• UUFPL: EB0LA, Lusch, AM, Shellnuts, phoopes, Reeece, Justamente, pacattacc
• RoA Spotlight Tour 2021: Volk, Sevi 7
• RBYPL: EB0LA, kjdaas, Sevi 7, Lord Thorx, iKiQ
• RoA Olympics 5: FriendOfMrGolem120, Torchic
• RoA Olympics 4: Lusch, EB0LA

Pre-Requisite voters: AM, EB0LA, FriendOfMrGolem120, iKiQ, Justamente, kjdaas, Lord Thorx, Lusch, pacattacc, phoopes, Reeece, Sevi 7, Shellnuts, Torchic, Volk (15)

Suspect Live Tour voters: Plague von Karma, El Cadaver, Ice Yazu, meloyy, Jyuux, Lilburr (6)

Overall voters: AM, EB0LA, FriendOfMrGolem120, iKiQ, Justamente, kjdaas, Lord Thorx, Lusch, pacattacc, phoopes, Reeece, Sevi 7, Shellnuts, Torchic, Volk, El Cadaver, Plague von Karma, Ice Yazu, meloyy, Jyuux, Lilburr (21)

 

[phoopes]

Going to start off this thread by saying I'm in favor of no ban. I've been staring at this thread for awhile now trying to collect my thoughts and organize them but I think I'm just going to ramble and see what happens.

It's no secret to anyone in the RBY UU community that I like building and playing with AgiliWrap Dragonite, probably more than anyone else. Hell, I sometimes even bring a team that has both AgiliWrap Dragonite and Dragonair on it, though I've never brought it to a serious tournament game that I can remember. Now why do I like building with AgiliWrap Dragonite so much? Because it's a good strategy that can win you games. However, do I think it's overcentralizing or broken? Nope.

I think the biggest reason for this is because whenever Dragonite sets up on me, it almost always feels like it's my fault, that I could have done something to prevent it. And in my games where I set up on my opponent, it almost always feels like I got to set up via my own skill. I won't argue with the fact that once AgiliWrap is set up, the game is one-sided. But I genuinely believe that avoiding having it done to you via counterplay or conditioning your opponent in such a way that you can set it up yourself is a skill that I would miss should Dragonite be banned.

So let's talk about how Dragonite usually sets up Agility in the first place (or at least the way I usually set it up). By punishing a Rest. Predicting when your opponent is going to use Rest is an integral part of RBY UU as a tier, and I believe that if Dragonite is banned, it'll be less easy to punish anything (especially Hypno) for using Rest. There'll still be stuff like bringing in Persian or Kangaskhan when your opponent clicks Rest on Hypno, but I think bringing in Dragonite to set up Agility is probably the strongest counterplay to Hypno, other than putting it to sleep yourself. If you want to talk about centralizing, let's look at the UUFPL statistics. Hypno was used on 98.57% of teams, even surpassing Tentacruel, used on 94.29% of teams (this compared to Dragonite only seeing play 36.43% of the time and just baaaarely having >50% winrate). If you're playing RBY UU, you're going to have to find a way to get rid of your opponent's Hypno, and as it stands the threat of having Dragonite come in and set up Agility is a good deterrent from your opponent just automatically clicking Rest when their Hypno is at 47% and paralyzed, a very common situation in the tier. It makes them consider using another move or switching out. And of course you don't have to bring out your Dragonite right away when you think your opponent is going to Rest. You can keep it in the back for later and thus condition your opponent to think that you don't have a great Hypno answer right away. Thus, deciding whether to use Dragonite to punish a Rest early game, mid-game, or late game is a skill itself, I would argue.

Now that we've gone over how to set up AgiliWrap yourself, I'd like to talk about the counterplay: why Dragonite really isn't that broken. It's because there's a lot of viable UU Pokemon that have an answer to Dragonite. While it's true that the counterplay with some of these Pokemon is to use Toxic, a move that they otherwise probably wouldn't run, I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. The coverage move that you would put over Toxic is just for something that happens to not be as good as Dragonite, which I think is a fair tradeoff. Now, let's take a look at every viable 'mon and see what they can do against Dragonite.

S:
Tentacruel outspeeds and OHKO's with Blizzard, which it would run anyway
Hypno cripples with Thunder Wave, meaning Dragonite can only safely come in on a sleeping Hypno. Hypno would run Thunder Wave anyway.

A:
Kadabra outspeeds and cripples with Thunder Wave, which it would run anyway
Dugtrio outspeeds and cripples with Toxic. Dugtrio would probably like to run Earthquake/Rock Slide/Slash/Substitute, but I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing as Slash really only helps you get damage on Tangela and Sub isn't as powerful in Gen 1 because status moves still go through it.
Dragonite can deal with opposing Dragonite by potentially OHKO with Blizzard or crippling with Thunder Wave. Dragonite gets a lot of useful moves so this is really up to you. Dragonite doesn't need to run AgiliWrap to be good.
Articuno outspeeds and OHKO's with Blizzard, which it would run anyway
Gyarados outspeeds and potentially OHKO's with Blizzard, which it would run anyway. Not that this is only a 38.5% chance to OHKO, so Dragonite can still possibly set up Agility and Wrap but I'd argue relying on a roll isn't great for Dragonite.
Kangaskhan outspeeds and cripples with Toxic. It's true that Khan would probably like to run something else other than Toxic, but it often does anyway as there's so many other Pokemon in the tier that have an answer to Dragonite. But Toxic is an option. That and the fact that Khan is often used for PP stalling Wrap due to its high physical bulk. But Khan would be used anyway, it's not here specifically for PP stalling Dragonite.
Persian outspeeds and cripples with Toxic. The move that you're giving up here is either Bubblebeam which is specifically for Golem, an NU Pokemon, or Hyper Beam, which I find goes unused a lot of the time because you're clicking Slash.
Vaporeon doesn't outspeed, but does potentially OHKO with Blizzard. In this scenario, the Dragonite player can use Wrap without Agility but generally is scared of the possibility of Blizzard nuking it. Vaporeon also sees some use for PP stalling due to its high HP. Vaporeon would see use anyway outside of PP stalling Dragonite though.

B:
Dodrio doesn't really have good answers here outside of using Agility itself to win the speed war, or fishing for paralysis with Body Slam. It would run Agility or Body Slam anyway, however.
Electabuzz outspeeds and cripples with Thunder Wave, which it would run anyway.
Haunter outspeeds and puts Dragonite to sleep with Hypnosis. More likely though, you'd keep Haunter around to PP stall Dragonite, as Wrap does 0% damage to it. Haunter would still be a UU Pokemon anyway without Dragonite around to PP stall though, in my opinion.
Venusaur speed ties Dragonite and either puts it to sleep or cripples it with Toxic. Venu would probably run something other than Toxic if Dragonite weren't in the tier, like Swords Dance and/or Hyper Beam, but I think running Toxic is a fair tradeoff.
Omastar doesn't outspeed but potentially OHKO's with Blizzard, which it would run anyway. It's also another good 'mon for PP Stalling Wrap, as it takes maximum 2% damage from it. It's around for more than just Dragonite though, as it's also a great answer to Articuno for example.
Tangela doesn't outspeed but can Sleep Powder or Stun Spore, both of which it would run anyway. This isn't a great matchup as Dragonite's Blizzard 2HKOs, however.

Others:
Aerodactyl isn't officially UU yet, but its ability to outspeed and cripple with Toxic as well as taking minimal chip damage from Wrap make it a good answer. It's not just UU for only Dragonite either, as one of the main reasons it's rising is as a Dugtrio check as well.
Dewgong is pretty similar to Vaporeon except the OHKO on Blizzard is guaranteed.

There are other fringe cases as well but this post is getting long enough already. The point is that there are many ways to deal with Dragonite, and most of them are already included in your teambuilding anyway. Toxic is run on a few 'mons, but I argue that that's just their "coverage move" to deal with Dragonite instead of something else, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Like PvK said in the initial post, it's kind of similar to running Hidden Power in later gens for coverage. I don't think it's that bad. Also, the three main "anti-Wrap" 'mons (Omastar, Aerodactyl, Haunter) are good in UU anyway, the presence of Dragonite just makes them a little bit better.

---

Some other quick thoughts I had while making this post. These aren't necessarily part of the main crux of my argument but they're worth mentioning I think:

• Dragonite doesn't need AgiliWrap to be good. It has enough useful moves that it can be good without Agility, Wrap, or both. You could look at this as a good thing or a bad thing when it comes to a ban, but I'd argue it's a good thing because the 'mon's usefulness is not inherently reliant on AgiliWrap.
• If we ban Dragonite, I think you'll see Dragonair take its place on some teams. Dragonair doesn't have nearly the same damage output as Dragonite, but if this happens I think we'll see that if there was a problem to begin with, AgiliWrap was the problem, not Dragonite itself. Dragonair and Moltres (with AgiliSpin) don't see a lot of usage now, but a slight uptick wouldn't be out of the question. But banning AgiliWrap instead of Dragonite might remove them from the tier entirely.
• I like having Dragonite around as a Dugtrio check too, you switch into Earthquake and then set up the Agility while they Toxic you, or hit them for a lot of damage with Blizzard. Articuno, Gyarados, and Aerodactyl can kind of do the same thing switching into the Earthquake and they're all a little different than Dragonite, but I think banning Dragonite makes Dugtrio better because it eliminates a check and lets it run EQ/Rock Slide/Slash/Sub. Not saying that Dug would be broken but it's already very good and banning Dragonite makes it better.

---

So yeah that was a long post. I'll try to sum it up:

• RBY UU is a good tier the way it is, even with the inclusion of AgiliWrap Dragonite (just my opinion, man)
• Once it's set up, AgiliWrap is a very one-sided game state. However, actually setting it up/preventing it is a good skill that's just a part of the tier. The tier isn't centralized enough around it to make it unhealthy (see: usage stats from UUFPL and other tours)
• Dragonite's presence makes it less easy to just click Rest, which I think is a good thing (makes tier a little less defensive)
• There are many answers to Dragonite to prevent it from setting up in the first place, and some counterplay even after it sets up (mostly from a teambuilding perspective)
• Pokemon having to run Toxic as a coverage move isn't necessarily a bad thing, and even keeps something like Dugtrio from being even better than it already is
• This ban is really more about AgiliWrap than it is about Dragonite. In my opinion I'm in favor of no ban > ban AgiliWrap > ban Dragonite.

---

Thanks for reading baby's first Policy Review post lol

 

[DAWNBUSTER]

Ill give some small thoughts as someone who enjoys RBY UU quite a bit and played it in UUFPL.


Like a few others, I would prefer a complex ban on AgiliWrap was the thing instead of Dragonite, as Dragonite is only an issue because of AgilWrap. It provides a useful check to Dugtrio as well as being a solid mixed attacker. But this is fine ig. Personally, I am in favour of removing Dragonite. It takes just one turn for it to entirely sway the state of a game into a one sided beat down while you try to PP stall it/hope for Wrap misses. The turn to setup Agility can be setup on Rest from mons like Hypno, or enabled by Sleepers like Venusaur, Tangela, or Hypnosis variants of Hypno. Dragonite itself dictates the move set of a lot of Pokemon in the metagame. Persian, Dugtrio, and Venusaur are just some examples of Pokemon forced to run Toxic to not let Dragonite set up and cause havoc. Even then, unless you make a risky move, these Pokemon have to take a hit in Toxicing Dragonite. Dragonite’s strategy is fundamentally uncompetitive and to an extent, warps the tier around it. If it comes in, you basically have to stay in with whatever Pokemon or risk losing the game. That being said, I definitely see the no ban argument, and I feel preventing Dragonite from setting up is a skill in this tier. I think that removing Dragonite could open the tier up a bit more and I will vote ban on it personally.

 

[Plague von Karma]

I can see why AgiliWrap can be seen as a good thing. I also agree preventing a Pokemon from setting up is a skill, this can apply anywhere. You're putting a firm cap on Rest users like Vaporeon and Hypno, which often Rest at ~50% to stay out of Kangaskhan's range. Dragonite makes this a 50/50 and encourages proactive switching to keep it at bay. This is interactive and has become somewhat of a fixture in the tier.

However, while preventing Dragonite from setting up can be seen as a skill, I believe a question that's being missed is "is the reward from AgiliWrap too much?". What often defines an RNG-centric technique's problematic nature is whether the reward offsets the risk and interaction necessary to pull it off. I'd argue that this falls squarely in line with "problematic".

The threat of Dragonite setting up defines games to a large degree, with situations where you'd logically use Rest becoming 50/50's where Dragonite could potentially flip the game on its head. Even before it sets up, you're scouting their team for whether Dragonite is there, and then holding it back. All of this effort is spent on preventing a single turn among what can potentially be over 100 throughout a game. It can mean nothing, but it can also mean everything; more often than not, Dragonite is getting massive damage off of AgiliWrap, this is like 5-7% a time with an average of about 16 ticks. The Dragonite player is in almost complete control of the game once it goes off, and can end it whenever. It seems odd that a strategy that can largely decide a game in a single turn is met with, in card game terms, "oh but you might draw dead". You can draw dead cards, but you can also draw great cards, and you're statistically likely to do so. This strategy greatly increases the potency of Pokemon like Dugtrio and Persian, often allowing them to close out the game thereafter, you get the idea. The general tone here can be called "unnatural".

sort-of irrelevant discussion about test structure and dragonair which constantly get thrown around

Concerning the suspect test's structure, it seems largely irrelevant to discuss whether or not AgiliWrap should be on the table. It's on the table, it's just if a retest occurs. Dragonite is the only problematic user of the strategy that has seen full-on tournament use, despite multiple requests from those in that camp to showcase Dragonair. There have only been sporadic replays that have been criticised for showcasing situations Articuno and other sweepers could have replicated with less risk involved. Removing Dragonite first allows us to see if Dragonair will perpetuate the strategy and encourage it to actually get used in tournament play, which has continually been a problem. All we've seen are RoA Live Tours with ~10 participants, which is an astonishingly small sample.

The arguably uncompetitive nature of AgiliWrap has been factored in here, the problem is that the evidence of Dragonair's problematic nature in fully competitive settings are minimal and recent, which the RBY Council has continually attempted to explain. They want evidence of it being broken for a sustained length of time in high-level gameplay, not uncompetitive.

I'll prolly write more later but I think it's best to give this discussion more direction. Fire away!

 

[pac]

Apologies if I don't explain myself well, i'm extremely bad at explaining my opinions. "Thanks for reading baby's first Policy Review post lol" if you will. I'm not going to go over stuff that has been said before, as that is redundant.

So, I am personally in favor of a Dragonite Ban. I am also in favor of an AgiliWrap ban, but as that is not currently on the table it's irrelevant here.
Dragonite's main issue competitively in my opinion is not that you are forced to pack certain moves (which is part of it), nor is it that you are trapped into staying in giving it immense control over the gamestate and acting similarly to Arena Trap in that regard (which is part of it), nor is it even that AgiliWrap can just end games by setting up a sweep or sweeping itself (which is part of it).

The main issue with it is that in every game, every match, and on every Rest, even when it is not present, you are forced to play around the threat of it. Your opponent does not have to run Dragonite, and you are still forced to play around it due just to the mere threat of if. If one of your opponent's pokemon is unrevealed, staying in one turn with a sleeping Pokemon can mean the game is over, so you must play around it. Sometimes, yes, you won't get punished. Maybe it's just a Persian that you end up countering with Haunter for example. But because SOME GAMES will have a Dragonite present, you cannot take that risk reliably. In my opinion, this is extremely unhealthy as it forces linear and predictable plays. Since your opponent knows what you are doing, they essentially get to benefit from Dragonite without even having it. If my opponent just clicked Rest on Hypno, I can reliably guess that they will switch to Tentacruel for example and punish with Kadabra. And if my opponent would like to read this and take advantage, well it's a 50/50. While this sounds contradictory to what I just stated, the fact of the matter is that no person is logically going to play this 50/50 which may decide the entire game, especially when Dragonite is able to force these situations in the early and mid games. Due to this, the 50/50 that is sometimes discussed as a counter-argument just does not happen in practice unless your balls are the size of the entirety of the Oort cloud.

In short, Dragonite is centralising because it forces certain plays in a way that it warps how the tier is played to an unhealthy extent. These mythical 50/50s that the ancient elder gods of long ago have prophesied of don't actually happen, and it just forces things to happen by its existence. While some may say Dragonite/AgiliWrap is healthy due to its nature of decreasing defensive play and promoting a more offensive meta, I would argue that UU is already extremely pro-offensive due to the numerous powerful threats. There is a reason you don't really see defensive teams after all, and Dragonite isn't really the issue. Ban the nerd and see where we go imo.

 

[Volk]

Buckle in for what I assume will be a long post. I'm disappointed that this is the suspect test that we settled on after negotiating this for over a year. Considering the strong support that a ban on Agility + Partial-Trapping / Wrap (henceforth referred to as APT) within the community, which is visible already in this thread, I am disappointed that an APT ban is not on the ballot. While I'm sure this was not the intent of the framers of this suspect test, it does seem deliberately designed to disenfranchise individuals in the same voting camp as me, that is people who want APT banned but do not wish to see Dragonite banned. To be clear, I'd rather do nothing than Ban Dragonite. Regardless, if I want my way, I have to vote to ban Dragonite, risking that my least desired outcome will occur, first. This is horrendously unfair and promotes a form of strategic voting that I am fervently opposed to. This suspect test should have been presented as a ranked-choice voting system among three options: Ban Dragonite, Ban APT, Ban Nothing. The organization of this suspect test is a mistake and I am embarrassed that this is what we settled on.

With that out of the way, let me explain why I feel this way. I will go through the reasons why I want to keep Dragonite, while also covering reasons why APT ought to go.

Why Dragonite Should Stay in RBY UU & APT Should Be Banned

Dragonite is a healthy force in the metagame:
Dragonite is an incredibly dynamic Pokemon, being arguably the most deep and sophisticated Pokemon in the tier. It boasts an enormous pool of useful moves that allow it perform a variety of roles and act as a serviceable check to much of the metagame. Ignoring APT sets, Dragonite maintains many valuable sets, including ones oriented around attacking with strong moves, spreading paralysis, pivoting with Wrap, or sweeping with Agility. I've tested all of these sets and found that not only are they all viable, they are healthier than and, in some cases, superior to APT sets. I thinking surrendering the most interesting Pokemon in RBY UU is a mistake.
Additionally, I've seen several players express concerns about Dugtrio in light of a Dragonite ban. I actually don't really feel this way, as I think Gyarados, Tangela, and Aerodactyl can pick up the slack. Dugtrio will certainly get better, but I remain unsure if it will enter the broken territory. If anything, I am much more concerned about Normal-type Pokemon in the tier, such as Persian and Kangaskhan. Dragonite is bulky enough to survive a few hits from these two and can stymie them pretty effectively, thanks to Thunder Wave. Dragonite's role to mitigate many notable threats with Thunder Wave is a big reason why I think it is so important to the meta.

APT is inherently uncompetitive:
I've belabored this point to excess if you've read this thread at all. I don't want to spend too much time on this again, but essentially, APT as a strategy has a lot in common with other techniques that were hit with the ban hammer like Sand Veil, Snow Cloak, Shadow Tag, Arena Trap, Baton Pass, and now King's Rock. There are two main reasons here. Firstly, the counter play to APT is not like the counter play to conventionally broken Pokemon. The reasons why things like Baton Pass and Double Team are illegal are that the counter play to these strategies is otherwise largely unhelpful. Running three Pokemon with Whirlwind might prepare you to handle Baton Pass teams, but will leave you at a detriment against literally every other type of team. When a strategy forces you to handicap yourself with otherwise completely useless moves and techniques, it is usually time to look at the mechanic, rather than the Pokemon that use it. In the case of RBY UU, Toxic has become a staple on multiple Pokemon that are otherwise unable to prevent APT. Toxic is generally a terrible move in RBY and I think the fact that Pokemon are forced to used it reflects poorly on APT. Its less-than-stellar accuracy is an additional nuisance; this means getting harshly punished for playing correctly is on the table here as well. Secondly, the gameplay is wholly uninvolved. People often complain that King's Rock, Sand Veil, Baton Pass and so on take the game out of the players' hands. Things become very autopilot and meaningful "plays" no longer have any value, reducing Pokemon to little more than a game of chance: will I flinch, will I get the critical hit, etc. APT falls precisely within this category, being completely uninvolved for both players; one player basically clicks one move for several minutes while the other sits there and prays for a miss or switches indefinitely. It's not healthy at all and I really don't see how one can justify keeping it. Additionally, while this is isn't the most important thing, APT is really just not fun at all, for either player.

It actually solves the problem in its entirety:
Banning Dragonite fails to get to the core of the issue at hand here, and frankly risks exasperating the problem in some cases. Dragonair and other users of APT are not incredibly good, but they are viable. People continue to dismiss these Pokemon, despite them being reasonably effective forces in the metagame. I played numerous games against Shellnuts and phoopes, who make good use of Dragonair, and it is totally viable. I've seen people argue that "[insert sweeper here] could accomplish the same thing there" and I just don't understand this at all. APT is a lot more universal than other methods of sweeping and the counterplay is much less intuitive. If I want to prevent an Articuno sweep, I can just keep Tentacruel alive or really anything that can tank a Blizzard and get a Thunder Wave off. Dragonair or whatever just needs to set up and its job is done. Aside from those containing Haunter, it'll be able to do a number on basically any team, especially in the endgame. Another big issue that EB0LA pointed out is that APT is unique in its ability to extract information. Against weaker users of APT, PP Stall is a usable countermeasure, especially in the early game. However, this involves a lot of switching, which means giving up your team composition to your opponent, which can be more valuable than even knocking something out. Comparing APT to other sweepers is just not accurate, and I'll go into even more detail shortly.
Another issue is that Pokemon like Dragonair get a passive buff in Dragonite's absence. One of Dragonair's weakest attributes is that much all the tier is already prepared for it. Basically everything in the tier needs a plan for Dragonite, so most things are prepared for Dragonair as a natural consequence. Part of the beauty of an APT ban is that every Pokemon could unilaterally forgo Toxic without any fears. Meanwhile, if you just ban Dragonite, you allow Dragonair to exist as a looming force that can punish the reduction in Toxic use. Considering the best user of APT would be gone with a Dragonite ban, more Pokemon would be comfortable not running Toxic, which means that Dragonair becomes a more potent threat as it can set up in front of a huge portion of the tier. This might even be a worse situation than what we have now, as at least we are all currently prepared for Dragonite. I don't suspect Dragonair will be good enough that preparing for it will be the standard, but it will still exist, being able to abuse APT essentially whenever it wants. I'd prefer to avoid this limbo state.

APT is not implemented properly:
I'm no expert on this, but basically, the way Pokemon Showdown implements Wrap (or really, the FIGHT Button) gives some undue power to the Wrap user. Considering part of the issue with this the mechanic is the way it is implemented, I think removing the mechanic makes a lot more sense than removing its users.

It establishes a good precedent:
APT is not a popular aspect of any RBY tier. I've seen complaints about it in OU since I started playing the tier like five years ago. I find it quite unhealthy in the nascent NU as well. I've even see a few Ubers players express concerns about it. I think going after Dragonite dodges the very obvious systemic problem we have here. I think lower tiers would greatly benefit from a universal APT ban, while also helping OU and Ubers follow suit if they so desire. I think this will make even more sense once we reach the tier in which Dragonair is king.

It eliminates the potential viability of several Pokemon:
This actually has little to do with APT, but it's a point I wanted to make concerning a ban. APT has a very large gatekeeping effect on RBY UU that I feel often goes unnoticed. If a Pokemon lacks a way to handle Dragonite effectively, that Pokemon is almost certainly bad. Now, basically every Pokemon can use Toxic, but a good chunk really can't afford to make room for it. This includes a range of Pokemon including good ones like Poliwrath and Golem to mediocre ones like Nidoking and Scyther. I'm not saying all of these Pokemon "deserve" to be good or something (Scyther will be bad regardless), just that they deserve to function as actual Pokemon. Pokemon that can't handle APT and can't survive with only three moves are not just unviable, but a liability. They can't even enter the field, as Dragonite can consistently come in and potentially end the game. Some weaker picks in RBY UU are genuinely only slightly better than running nothing at all for this reason.
APT users are functionally very different from other types of sweepers, not just in RBY, but in Pokemon. Firstly, APT completely warps the concept of revenge killing. Pokemon that can't handle APT cannot risk knocking anything out, simple as that. Secondly, APT grants Dragonite a sort of Shadow Tag. Sure, you can switch when Dragonite comes in, but the risk of APT is always far too great. Dragonite can always get a free hit when it comes in because switching is often just too risky. Conventional set-up sweepers do not have this power. You can always afford to switch, sack something else, and preserve whatever Pokemon was previously in, if needed. Comparing Dragonite, or even Dragonair, to something like Articuno or Dodrio is just not accurate. Do not treat it as such.

This is what I want to say for now. I have developed very strong opinions on this subject and will doubtless write more at some point. Rework this. Ban APT, Keep Dragonite.

Note: Consider refreshing periodically, as I'm making some clarity edits in real time.

 

[Lusch]

(Agility)Wrap is a topic where people easily let themselves get carried away by their feelings. It feels bad to be on the recieving end of someone wrapping you for multiple turns and in the worst case even lose to it. In situations like this, we are all angry. Who hasn't cursed the move (-combination) after a losing battle and wished it was banned? I think we've all been there.
This leads to discussions about Wrap often being loaded with emotions and "worst case" scenarios in mind. They are also often very theoretical "if Dragonite sets up Agility, the game is as good as over...".
This post tries to see how AgilityWrap actually looks in practice. And with that I mean, in tournament play. Friendlies and roa room tours don't count here.
So what I will do in this post is, I will take all the replays of UUFPL (it's the best and most recent ressource we have) in which a Dragonite tried to set up the AgilityWrap strategy and have a look at how it played out and whether or not there was something broken or "uncompetitive" going on. I also do believe that it is important how AgilityWrap actually (not in theory) performs and the comparison to other Agility users, especially in sweeping or endgame situations is appropriate and should be made in those situations. Oftentimes people lose to AgilityWrap, when they would have just as well lost to Agility Articuno, Agility Dodrio or (more theoretically because nobody uses it) Agility Raichu.
I read a lot about Dragonair also being a behemoth, but apparently those people who claim it is also problematic don't trust its ability enough to use it in actual tournament play, since there was not a single Dragonair in all of UUFPL.
Without further ado, let's jump into the games. For the record, it was 21 out of 70 games in which AgiliWrap from Dragonite actively came into play (no guarantee that this list is complete, but I tried my best):

Plague von Karma vs. PacAttacc
On turn 12 Dragonite sets up Agility on a (well prepared) Dugtrio and eats a toxic in return. It gets unlucky with Blizzard misses (a more accurate move than Wrap, btw) but there was not a chance that this would have made any big Wrap-sweeping attempts once it ate the Toxic, given the health of the opposing team.

Phoopes vs.ReeceHughes
On turn 19 Phoopes' Dragonite sets up Agility on Recce's Hypno who unfortunately took a very long sleep. It then proceeds to Wrap away at the opposing team, which tries to PP stall the Wraps, even getting lucky on the Hypno switch to miss at the right moment. Reece probably would have had better odds if he tried to just stay in with Gyarados or Tentacruel to fish for the miss and kill with Blizzard, but decided for the PP stall. Either way, did AgiliWrap matter in this one? The stage was pretty much set for Phoopes' Dugtrio regardless, to the point where it likely did not matter anymore. Any other Agility user of the tier would have won here the same way.

Phoopes vs. Shellnuts
On turn 34 Phoopes' predicts Shellnuts' Hypno-Rest correctly and brings in Dragonite to set up Agility on turn 35. Not much to say here other than any other sweeper would have won the game there if brought in like that, not even Agility needed... because the team was weak.

EB0LA vs. Justamente
On turn 57 Ebola's Dragonite misses Wrap against Kadabra and gets Twaved. Ebola tries to set up Agility while paralysed and (predictably) does not get very far with it. AgilityWarp had absolutely no negative influence on the opponent of it in this game.

ReeceHughes vs. SBPC
SBPC sets up Agility on turn 33 out of desparation to try to make the comeback, but cannot find a good setup opportunity (which is not always as easy as people make it sound if you read their tales about AgilityWrap) and gets Twaved. AgilityWrap failed to accomplish anything at all.

ReeceHughes vs. SBPC
RecceHughes goes for an early Agility on a resting Hypno with Dragonite on turn 7 and starts wrapping away. SBPC responds with switches between Articuno, Tentacruel and Vaporeon. Being faced with 3 Ice-type attackes that will OHKO on a miss, Reece decides to switch Dragonite out on turn 20 and Dragonite's Wrap does not come in anymore for the rest of the game. Proably SBPC should have even decided for either Articuno or Vaporeon (which were both at full health) to switch in on Dragonite and wait out the miss if Reece commits to wrapping this early on. That way he does not give away more information than needed and could potentially wake up his Hypno for relatively free. Either way, what Reece got out of the Sequence was information on what team kind of team he was facing, the way it was played out, which could not have been achieved by a Tentacruel wrapping since there was a Kadabra on the other side. The damage dealt was not a lot, though.

PacAttacc vs. Phoopes
Phoopes brings in his Dragonite on PacAttacc's Hyper Beaming Aerodactyl on tirn 19, finding pretty much the only set-up opportunity Pac's team gives out to Dragonite, very well done indeed. I have no idea, however, why PacAttacc actually goes for Hyper Beam there when Double Edge KOs. Take the minimal recoil and don't get into that situation... Anyway, Phoopes gets rewarded for the play. PacAttacc decides to PP stall Wrap between Aerodactyl and Vaporeon. SOmewhere in the sequence, Phoopes actually misses two Wraps in a row (on the switch-in of Vaporeon and the subsequent turn) but does not get punished because luckily Blizzard also misses (turn 33). He then preceeds to miss a Wrap on the Aero switch-in and kills that with Blizzard on turn 38. In the end, Pac managed to stall all the Wrap PP and KO Dragonite and fight the game out until the end. So, the way it played out, AgilityWrap Dragonite had a huge negative influence on the opponent, and dealt a lot of damage and got KOs. However, it has to get mentioned that Pac made mistakes on turns 19 (Hyper Beam was never the play) and turns 38 (just go Tentacruel on the Blizzard and force another Wrap, if you suspect Thunderbolt, go Hypno and force another Wrap, they were both at 100% at the time. That way you can preceed to PP stall using Aero, Wrap had only 15 PP remaining also) and got very unfortunate on turn 33.

PacAttacc vs. Phoopes
Phoopes' Dragonite sets up Agility on a sleeping Dewgong on turn 27 while Pac switches to Venusaur and misses Wrap on turn 28 while eating a Toxic. It killed the Dewgong after with Bodyslams but AgiliWrap failed to accomplish anything at all.

Lusch vs. EB0LA
Ebola sets up Agility early on turn 4, which was not even a setup opportunity since a follow-up Rockslide can KO Dragonite there. Anyway, instead of actually going for the Rockslide roll to KO there on turn 4 (or turns 18, 25 or 28 [he missed Wrap quite a lot, also on Golem switch-ins] and take the Blizzard in return on those turns) I make the mistake to try to PP stall by swichtig between Tentacruel, Hypno and Golem. On every miss on Golem I switch out, letting Dragonite damage through my team with crits and good prediction. While I could definitely have played this much better, the way this game played out, AgilityWrap Dragonite won the game the moment it entered the field on turn 4.

EB0LA vs. Lusch
Dragonite sets up Agility on turn 22 on a sleeping Hypno, while the opposing team is already relatively weakened. EB0LA probably should not have burned that sleep turn, as my Dragonite was already revealed and he should have known that it would pose a threat to his weakened team. He then decides to PP stall between Tentacruel and Gyarados. Dragonite double misses Wrap on turns 32 and 33 and gets KOed by a Gyarados Blizzard in the process, having KOed a sleeping Hypno and done roughly 20% to both Gyarados and Tentacruel. Since this is kind of a late-game situation, the comparison with other (Agility) sweepers coming in on that sleeping Hypno is called for. It's not as simple here, since there was a full health Dragonite on Ebola's end that could potentially have caused problems after the Hypno-kill, had it been done with Dodrio for example. Let'S be generous to Dragonite and say that Dodrio or Raichu would have done worse here. Certainly though, Articuno would have just ripped the remainder of the opposing team apart, or at least done more damage to Gyarados and Tentacruel than Dragonite manged to achieve, as would have Toxic Persian. Some other (Agility) sweepers would have done a better job in this instance than Dragonite, some would not have.

AM vs. Plague von Karma
AM sets up Agility on turn 44. Agility was completely irrelevant in this game other than moving first on turn 46 preventing potentially getting crit by Kadabra and not getting that T-Wave off. Wrap did not come into play (in conjunction with Agility) either. The impact of AgilityWrap on Dragonite had on this battle is hard to spot at first glance. It did not stem from it getting used, but from PvK feeling the need to go for Toxic with Persian instead of straight attacking. It's hard to tell though, if straight attacking is even better in this instance, since without Toxic, Dragonite can start wrapping the paralyzed Persian and inevitably get another T-Wave off on Kadabra, which gives Dugtrio and Tangela more shots at closing out the game. All in all it is tough to evaluate. In any case, Thunder wave on Dragonite was way more influential to that endgame than AgilityWrap was.

Justamente vs. ReeceHughes
Reece sets up Agility on turn 33 with Dragonite on Dugtrio after realizing that this Digtrio was not carrying Toxic. I can hear the screams already. Yes, Dugtrio is kind of forced to run Toxic in this tier, but Toxic-Dugtrio is still unanimously agreed to be at least a top 5 Pokemon anyway (some put it at #3). So it's not really hurting Dugtrio much. Not running it could have hurt Justamente in this game, though. But as it turns out, Wrap does not fail to disappoint, as it often does. A double miss occurs on turns 42 and 43 and Dragonite bites the dust to a Blizzard. Without knowing Justamente's last Pokemon, it is difficult to evaluate, wether or not another (Agility) Sweeper would have done the job better. But again, a Persian does not look bad here either. It's not important anyway, since AgilityWrap failed to accomplish much of anything.

ReeceHughes vs. Justamente
On turn 49 Justamente sets up Agility on a weakened team and gets toxic'd on that turn. and decided to retreat Dragonite shortly after. In that situation though, Reece loses vs any typical late game cleaer to the point that AgilityWrap did not make any impact on this game.

ReeceHughes vs. Lusch
ReeceHughes sets up Agility with Dragonite after switching in on a well predicted Hyper Beam from Gyaraods on turn 15 on an almost completely healthy team. Wrap's unreliability shows one again as Dragonite does not manage to Wrap past Tentacruel and gets KOed by Blizzard. Despite getting set up, Agility Wrap failed to accomlish much of anything.

EB0LA vs. PacAttacc
Ebola gets his low health Dragonite in with a well played sequence on Pac's sleeping Kadabra and earned himself the set-up on turn 38. Ebola proceeds wrapping while Pac tries to PP stall between Raticate, Hypno and Tentacruel, waking up the latter in the process. Dragonite, bound to use moves with imperfect accuracy, eventually misses a Blizzard for the KO on Hypno, having KOed the weakened Kadabra and dealth approximately 40% to both Raticate and Hypno and about 25% to Tentacruel (which it left awake instead of sleeping though). AgilityWrap played a crucial role in Ebola's win here, as it did enough damage to PacAttaccs (frail) team for teammates to take advantage. However, I would not see this instance as an example of uncompetitiveness. In fact, I found the way this game played out to be very competitive indeed, Ebola had to make the right moves at the right time to get into the set-up position, which is the very definition of competitiveness in my eyes.

ReeceHughes vs. EB0LA
Ebola's Dragonite sets up Agility on turn 20 on a toxic miss from Reece's Kangaskhan. Reece tries to PP stall Wrap from then on with Tentacruel and Kangaskhan but ends up taking too much damage from Dragonite which stayed on the field for the next 28 turns, doing damage to the opposing Team (while eventually getting hut by Toxic on a double Wrap miss on turns 42 and 43. In those turns it KOed the weakened Articuno, did around 85% to Kangaskhan, 50% to Tentacruel and forced the Hypno to use Rest. This left Ebola's unrevealed Aricuno with not much opposition left to end the game. Toxic (just as Wrap) does not always hit, and that is just wat sometimes happens, but nevertheless, this is a game where you feel AgilityWrap was giving an unfair advantage to Ebola despite his opponent doing nothing wrong and being prepared for it. And that is not how the game "should" have happened.

EB0LA vs. ReeceHughes
Ebola sets up Agility with Dragonite early on turn 6 after he slept the opposing Hypno, which decided to burn a sleep turn, handing Ebola the set-up opportunity. It preceeds to Wrap as Reece decides for the PP stall via switching between Tentacruel and Kadabra method. On turn 31 Wrap misses (with 10 PP remaining) and Dragonite does down to Blizzard after KOing the full health Kadabra and doing around 65% to Tentacruel. It is questionable if using the frail Kadabra to PP stall Wrap was the right call, given that Reece had a Pinsir (which is an incredibly physically bulky Pokemon) in the back, but regardless, the early AgilityWrap setup paved the way for Ebola's remainding Pokemon to close out the game.

Phoopes vs. Justamente
In this game, both players set up AgilityWrap. Justamente tries a relatively early set-up on turn 9 on a Dugtrio and gets toxic'd for it. Wrap did not have an impact in conjunction with Agility in that case, but it scored a Blizzard freeze on the incoming Omastar (well... Blizzard is a problematic move...). Phoopes tries a desparation set-up on a Dugtrio-Toxic on turn 37 and actually dodges the Toxic. "Luckily", one is inclined to say, he misses a Wrap relatively soon (turn 48) and eats a Thunderwave, stopping the magic. All in all, despite one "dangerous" moment, AgilityWrap did not have much of an influence on the game.

Lusch vs. Shellnuts
The only instance of AgilityWrap occuring in this battle was on turn 43 where I set up Agility on the frozen Venusaur despite being poisoned to get a 85%-free switch on whatever Shellnuts decides to send in after the sac (which did not even end up beaing a sac because he probably predicted the Agility). AgilityWrap had no negative influence on the battle.

LolTrollGame vs. EB0LA
Ebola sets up Agility with Dragonite early on turn 7 after the opposing Hypno used Rest, and decided to burn a sleep turn, handing Ebola the set-up opportunity. It preceeds to Wrap as LTG decides for the PP stall via switching between Tentacruel and Blastoise method. On turns 28 and 29 the double Wrap miss occurs (with 10 PP remaining) and Dragonite does down to Blizzard after doing around 55% to Tentacruel and 40% to Blastoise. LTG later sets up Agility while poisoned but never uses Wrap. While it might not have been game deciding, denting Blastoise and Tentacruel in that matter is certainly not as easy to achievein the early game without having to put in more play than needed by Ebola in this instance. Let's say again, the early AgilityWrap setup paved the way for Ebola's remainding Pokemon to close out the game.

ReeceHughes vs. SBPC
On turn 19 SBPC sets up Agility on Dugtrio and eats a toxic, that was the end of the AgilityWrap story in this game, it had no influence at all on the game.

To summarize:

Out of those 21 real (not theoretical!) appearances of AgilityWrap Dragonite, the majority of times AgilityWrap did either poorly or even if set up did not have a big influence in the outcoming of the game due to other commmon UU Pokemon would having done comparable things in late-game scenarios and AgilityWrap (or Dragonite as a whole) really was not the decsisive factor anymore.

There were a few instances of AgilityWrap (I'm counting 6) where it did great damage to the opposing team and also in a way that other Pokemon could not have done with that little cost. Those scenarios happened (to my surprise actually) most of the time after a relatively early Agility set-up. It has to be said however, that most of those scenarios happened due to people letting Dragonite in for free while burning a sleep turn, or making mistakes. I know it is not entirely comparable, but burning the first sleep turns in RBY in general is always associated with a relatively high risk. If we take the well known OU, people very rarely burn a turn with their newly slept Alakazam or Starmie because they do not want to grant the opponent (read: Tauros) a free turn. So this is not anything UU specific, albeit the punishment can be a harder one. But I think it's only a matter of time until the UU playerbase understands that burning sleep turns is not the ideal play, and then we'll see less and less of these early game AgilityWrap scenarios (which are the minority still, don't forget).

There was one instance where Ebola pulled a game back because he dodged a Toxic from Kangaskhan, and did way more damage with Dragonite than he "should" have. That was the only real "uncompetitive" moment we saw, because despite the opponent not making a mistake, he still got punished hard by AgilityWrap. But then again, that was one out of 70 UU games in total. Sometimes you make the right move and get punished in Pokemon regardless, that is simply the game we play. It happens way more than 1/70 times with just the move Blizzard alone (I don't think it's a mistake to switch your Starmie into Tauros Blizzard, in fact it's a good play, yet still 9/100 times you'll get punished hard for making it...).

One last note: I spent time on this post stretched out over multiple days this week because I do not have all too much free time to dedicate to my Pokemon-Hobby these days. If you disagree with anything I carried out here, please do so respectfully, thank you!

 

[Plague von Karma]

Alright, the RBY UU Dragonite Suspect Live Tours have concluded. Thanks to everyone who attended and assisted with these, they were very insightful and the people who qualified were all very deserving of it...except maybe me, with my clowning around...

pacattacc has graciously provided a replay compilation document featuring every game that was played throughout the tournament. In the next few days, I hope these will aid discussion in this thread.

Blind Voting should go up on Tuesday should everything go right for Lusch. Watch this space!

 

[phoopes]

This is going to be a Lusch-style post, but not quite as in-depth.

Alright here we go. There were 58 games during the suspect test, meaning 116 teams were brought to these suspect tours. By my count, 33 games featured a Dragonite, and 9 games featured both teams using Dragonite, so in total Dragonite was brought 42 times. 42/116 is a usage rate of 36.2% (rounded to the nearest tenth), but assume that this is a little bit higher because Dragonite could have been unrevealed in some games (personal testimony, Dragonite was my unrevealed 6th Pokemon against Amaranth). Here's a look at all 33 games.

Games that feature Dragonite, but it doesn't set up Agility (13):
El Cadaver vs. IamFakee
phoopes vs. Alice
kalifguest vs. El Cadaver
TC vs. BigFatMantis
El Cadaver vs. Alice
Plague von Karma vs. TC
Plague von Karma vs. Alice
samy vs. Plague von Karma
emma vs. Melanie
meloyy vs. emma
Raahel vs. Lily
jyuux vs. ausma
phoopes vs. jyuux

Games where Dragonite gets statused before/as it sets up, so it's unable to make much of an impact (9):
Pannu vs. bbskarm
Plague von Karma vs. LTG
ausma vs. Shellnuts
TC vs. Alice
Ruft vs. El Cadaver
PacAttac vs. Gastalies
Shingn' Streets vs. samy - Note: samy would've probably set up on a predicted Rest were it not for Rest failing due to Hypno's HP.
samy vs. El Cadaver
phoopes vs. Lily

Games where Dragonite sets up at least once, but doesn't make much impact (6):
Goblin vs. BigFatMantis - just watch this one, Dragonite hardly does anything.
EB0LA vs. TC - EB0LA sets up, instantly misses Wrap and dies to Tent Blizzard.
meloyy vs. Estarossa - Estarossa sets up, misses first Wrap and then eats Toxic, limiting usefulness.
LTG vs. Amaranth - Both players bring Dragonite. Amaranth doesn't set up, LTG does. LTG misses an early Wrap that leads to death by Blizzard.
TC vs. Gastalies - Gastalies sets up twice, first time switches out early, second time misses three Wraps in a row and dies.
LTG vs. egalvanc - LTG sets up but immediately misses a Wrap and dies, egalvanc's never gets a chance to move

Games where Dragonite sets up due to a misplay on the opponent's part (2):
Lily vs. LTG - Lily's Persian either does not have Toxic or she didn't use it. LTG's Dragonite sets up and makes a big impact. LTG wins.
meloyy vs. PacAttacc - In this case, meloyy opts for Rock Slide over Toxic. Pac's Dragonite sets up and makes a big impact. Pac wins.

Games where Dragonite sets up and wins, but another setup sweeper could have done the exact same thing (2):
meloyy vs. Ruft - meloyy sets up on a frozen Persian and wins the game, but Dodrio could have done the same thing. Dodrio switches in and uses Agility and KO's Persian just like Nite did. Dodrio then OHKOs Kadabra with Hyper Beam and 2HKOs Dugtrio with Body Slam while avoiding a crit OHKO from Rock Slide in return.
jyuux vs. El Cadaver - jyuux brings in Dragonite, sets up Agility, and wins with a combination of Blizzards and Hyper Beams. Something that Articuno could also do in this scenario, arguably even more efficiently since Blizzard has a chance at killing Persian in one hit at 66% instead of 2 hits like it took from Dragonite.

Games where Dragonite sets up and wins where nothing else could have done the same thing and there was no counterplay (1):
PacAttac vs. Alice - PacAttac had this game in the bag. But then he missed a Hyper Beam and Dragonite set up on him and bring it all the way back in a way that no other Pokemon could. However, even with this, Pac still managed to PP Stall Dragonite down to 0 Wraps. If Alice had Hyper Beam instead of Thunder Wave, still would have been game over for Alice. However, Alice had use Thunder Wave and get two full para's and a crit on Blizzard to win the game. So like... Pac just got really unlucky this game at the end is how I see it.

---

So yeah, that took a long time to write up but that's some more data for y'all for how AgiliWrap Dragonite actually looks in practice. I copy-pasted a lot of links and shit so if I mislabeled anything or you have a difference of opinion on something definitely let me know here or on Discord.

My takeaway is this: Dragonite only able to set up successfully in 11 out of the 33 games where it was featured. That's just a third of the time. And even then, bad luck on the end of the Dragonite player's part ended its AgiliWrap spree early about half of those 11 times. Other times, it was a misplay by the opponent that caused a Dragonite sweep. Still other times, a Dodrio or Articuno could have done the exact same sweep, it just feels worse because it's AgiliWrap Dragonite doing it to you (like Lusch pointed out, it just feels worse than a normal sweep which I think everyone can agree on). There was only one time where I looked at the game and said, "Yeah, that's kind of BS." One time, out of 33 games to feature a Dragonite, with at least 42 Dragonites total, out of 58 games total in this suspect tour. And I think that's just Pokemon. Every now and then you just get screwed. And Dragonite doesn't raise that "getting screwed" chance in practice enough for me to want to ban it. Again, I reiterate my stance of no ban.

Thanks for reading!

 

[Plague von Karma]

Games that feature Dragonite, but it doesn't set up Agility (13):
Plague von Karma vs. TC
Plague von Karma vs. Alice

As a personal thing here, these two games where I don't set up with Dragonite are ones where I don't use Agility on the set at all. These were "PhysNite" sets that use Body Slam. The biggest reason I used it was for consistency on that team, I needed something more guaranteed. The problem with AgiliWrap is that you're dedicating a turn to setting up, and if Wrap misses the next, you've forfeited 2 turns for nothing.

Here's the set;

Dragonite
Ability: none
- Body Slam
- Blizzard
- Thunder Wave
- Wrap

This set can back Volk's argument of Dragonite's health for the metagame, as it isn't problematic in the slightest and shows Dragonite's ability to adapt. I personally find this set to be a really fun one to use and it's much more consistent since Dragonite doesn't forfeit any turns; quite the contrary, it's often going on the offence right away. Part of why I use it in those replays is for the extra paralysis spreading and ease of breaking Kadabra and checking Dugtrio more consistently, but also because the team can't really afford 2 setup Pokemon and doesn't profit from AgiliWrap by much. One crit Body Slam from Dragonite is enough to 3HKO Hypno (or just carry HB) which is cool when switching in on Rest as it scares the daylights out of people. The presence of Dragonite is just really strong, sometimes you can paralyze Dugtrio for free as it shotguns Toxic. That alone can be a game-winning scenario in some situations, and the best part is it has to do that if Dragonite hasn't been scouted.

I also noticed egalvanc using Lead Dragonite, which is another interesting one. I've used this once myself as a way of counterpicking Hypno lead; it doesn't need Agility. In fact, I usually use PhysNite when running this lead, maybe Slam+HB for the Hypno range if I want to force it to Rest out the gate using Wrap. You can run AgiliWrap like a crackhead if you're not afraid of being paralyzed though.

 

[Steorra]

Usage stats from the Livetours for any curious.

LiveTour #1

RBY UU

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tentacruel         |   56 | 100.00% |  50.00% |
| 1    | Hypno              |   56 | 100.00% |  50.00% |
| 3    | Kadabra            |   39 |  69.64% |  43.59% |
| 4    | Dugtrio            |   28 |  50.00% |  32.14% |
| 5    | Persian            |   27 |  48.21% |  48.15% |
| 6    | Gyarados           |   24 |  42.86% |  45.83% |
| 7    | Dragonite          |   20 |  35.71% |  40.00% |
| 8    | Kangaskhan         |   18 |  32.14% |  55.56% |
| 9    | Vaporeon           |    8 |  14.29% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Golem              |    7 |  12.50% |  57.14% |
| 11   | Dewgong            |    6 |  10.71% |  50.00% |
| 12   | Clefable           |    5 |   8.93% |  80.00% |
| 12   | Articuno           |    5 |   8.93% |  80.00% |
| 12   | Omastar            |    5 |   8.93% |  80.00% |
| 12   | Aerodactyl         |    5 |   8.93% |  60.00% |
| 12   | Electabuzz         |    5 |   8.93% |  40.00% |
| 17   | Tangela            |    3 |   5.36% |  33.33% |
| 17   | Haunter            |    3 |   5.36% |  33.33% |
| 19   | Venusaur           |    2 |   3.57% | 100.00% |
| 19   | Dodrio             |    2 |   3.57% | 100.00% |
| 19   | Pinsir             |    2 |   3.57% | 100.00% |
| 19   | Poliwrath          |    2 |   3.57% |  50.00% |
| 23   | Venomoth           |    1 |   1.79% | 100.00% |
| 23   | Dragonair          |    1 |   1.79% |   0.00% |

• Missing 1 Pokemon from EL CADAVER.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from RBY E B 0 L A.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from TOTEM SKARM.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from RBY E B 0 L A.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from THUNDERCEBRA.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from THUNDERCEBRA.

Livetour #2

RBY UU

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Hypno              |   32 | 100.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Tentacruel         |   31 |  96.88% |  51.61% |
| 3    | Dugtrio            |   23 |  71.88% |  39.13% |
| 4    | Kadabra            |   22 |  68.75% |  50.00% |
| 5    | Kangaskhan         |   12 |  37.50% |  50.00% |
| 6    | Persian            |   11 |  34.38% |  63.64% |
| 6    | Dragonite          |   11 |  34.38% |  36.36% |
| 8    | Gyarados           |    8 |  25.00% |  87.50% |
| 8    | Articuno           |    8 |  25.00% |  50.00% |
| 10   | Dewgong            |    6 |  18.75% |  33.33% |
| 11   | Vaporeon           |    5 |  15.62% |  60.00% |
| 11   | Haunter            |    5 |  15.62% |  40.00% |
| 13   | Aerodactyl         |    4 |  12.50% |  75.00% |
| 13   | Venusaur           |    4 |  12.50% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Venomoth           |    2 |   6.25% |  50.00% |
| 16   | Electabuzz         |    1 |   3.12% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Dodrio             |    1 |   3.12% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Tangela            |    1 |   3.12% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Clefable           |    1 |   3.12% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Omastar            |    1 |   3.12% |   0.00% |

• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.

LiveTour #3

RBY UU

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tentacruel         |   27 |  96.43% |  51.85% |
| 1    | Hypno              |   27 |  96.43% |  48.15% |
| 3    | Kadabra            |   22 |  78.57% |  50.00% |
| 4    | Dugtrio            |   21 |  75.00% |  47.62% |
| 5    | Dragonite          |   12 |  42.86% |  25.00% |
| 6    | Articuno           |   11 |  39.29% |  54.55% |
| 7    | Kangaskhan         |    9 |  32.14% |  55.56% |
| 7    | Persian            |    9 |  32.14% |  44.44% |
| 9    | Vaporeon           |    5 |  17.86% |  40.00% |
| 10   | Haunter            |    4 |  14.29% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Gyarados           |    3 |  10.71% | 100.00% |
| 11   | Venusaur           |    3 |  10.71% | 100.00% |
| 11   | Electabuzz         |    3 |  10.71% |  33.33% |
| 14   | Aerodactyl         |    2 |   7.14% | 100.00% |
| 14   | Omastar            |    2 |   7.14% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Dewgong            |    1 |   3.57% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Golem              |    1 |   3.57% | 100.00% |
| 16   | Dodrio             |    1 |   3.57% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Golduck            |    1 |   3.57% |   0.00% |
| 16   | Dragonair          |    1 |   3.57% |   0.00% |

• Missing 1 Pokemon from PHOOPES.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from JYUUX.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from JYUUX.

Cumulative Usage Stats for Semifinals and Finals for all 3 LiveTours (Includes Qualification Matches)

RBY UU

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Tentacruel         |   36 | 100.00% |  50.00% |
| 2    | Hypno              |   35 |  97.22% |  48.57% |
| 3    | Kadabra            |   26 |  72.22% |  46.15% |
| 4    | Persian            |   20 |  55.56% |  45.00% |
| 5    | Dugtrio            |   18 |  50.00% |  33.33% |
| 6    | Kangaskhan         |   13 |  36.11% |  53.85% |
| 6    | Gyarados           |   13 |  36.11% |  53.85% |
| 8    | Dragonite          |   11 |  30.56% |  54.55% |
| 9    | Articuno           |    7 |  19.44% |  57.14% |
| 10   | Omastar            |    5 |  13.89% |  40.00% |
| 10   | Vaporeon           |    5 |  13.89% |  20.00% |
| 12   | Golem              |    4 |  11.11% |  75.00% |
| 13   | Clefable           |    3 |   8.33% |  66.67% |
| 13   | Dewgong            |    3 |   8.33% |  33.33% |
| 15   | Aerodactyl         |    2 |   5.56% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Pinsir             |    2 |   5.56% | 100.00% |
| 15   | Tangela            |    2 |   5.56% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Venusaur           |    2 |   5.56% |  50.00% |
| 15   | Dragonair          |    2 |   5.56% |   0.00% |
| 20   | Dodrio             |    1 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 20   | Electabuzz         |    1 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 20   | Venomoth           |    1 |   2.78% | 100.00% |
| 20   | Haunter            |    1 |   2.78% | 100.00% |

• Missing 1 Pokemon from THUNDERCEBRA.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from JYUUX.

Cumulative Usage Stats for all 3 LiveTours

RBY UU

+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon            | Use  | Usage % |  Win %  |
+ ---- + ------------------ + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1    | Hypno              |  115 |  99.14% |  49.57% |
| 2    | Tentacruel         |  114 |  98.28% |  50.88% |
| 3    | Kadabra            |   83 |  71.55% |  46.99% |
| 4    | Dugtrio            |   72 |  62.07% |  38.89% |
| 5    | Persian            |   47 |  40.52% |  51.06% |
| 6    | Dragonite          |   43 |  37.07% |  34.88% |
| 7    | Kangaskhan         |   39 |  33.62% |  53.85% |
| 8    | Gyarados           |   35 |  30.17% |  60.00% |
| 9    | Articuno           |   24 |  20.69% |  58.33% |
| 10   | Vaporeon           |   18 |  15.52% |  50.00% |
| 11   | Dewgong            |   13 |  11.21% |  46.15% |
| 12   | Haunter            |   12 |  10.34% |  41.67% |
| 13   | Aerodactyl         |   11 |   9.48% |  72.73% |
| 14   | Venusaur           |    9 |   7.76% |  77.78% |
| 14   | Electabuzz         |    9 |   7.76% |  33.33% |
| 16   | Golem              |    8 |   6.90% |  62.50% |
| 16   | Omastar            |    8 |   6.90% |  50.00% |
| 18   | Clefable           |    6 |   5.17% |  66.67% |
| 19   | Dodrio             |    4 |   3.45% |  50.00% |
| 19   | Tangela            |    4 |   3.45% |  25.00% |
| 21   | Venomoth           |    3 |   2.59% |  66.67% |
| 22   | Pinsir             |    2 |   1.72% | 100.00% |
| 22   | Poliwrath          |    2 |   1.72% |  50.00% |
| 22   | Dragonair          |    2 |   1.72% |   0.00% |
| 25   | Golduck            |    1 |   0.86% |   0.00% |

• Missing 1 Pokemon from EL CADAVER.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from RBY E B 0 L A.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from TOTEM SKARM.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from RBY E B 0 L A.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from THUNDERCEBRA.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from THUNDERCEBRA.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from ICE YAZU.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from PHOOPES.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from JYUUX.
• Missing 1 Pokemon from JYUUX.

 

[Volk]

I'm going to keep this short, but I think this is very important so I'm going to make it clear here. As far as I can tell, the majority of people who voted (or will vote) to ban Dragonite from RBY UU are doing so with the sole intent of banning APT, or some variant thereof, shortly after. As such, there is very little reason to wait any time between the Dragonite ban and the subsequent APT Suspect Test, assuming that Dragonite is indeed banned. If Dragonite is banned, we should expect to see an APT Suspect Test very soon. And when I say "very soon," I mean a month or two, at most. Making the voters wait in this scenario is pointless. This test has already been extremely messy and a point of discontent for myself and others. Please move this right along so we can accomplish what people want to see.

edit: Cleaned up the tone a bit.

 

[Shurtugal]

Why not just suspect APT before Dragonite, if it is just going to end up being suspected anyway? This would make it easier to preserve Dragonite, which seems to be considered healthy outside of APT, and subsequently suspect Dragonite should it be too much after ATP? Suspecting Dragonite only makes sense if APT isn't on the table

 

[Plague von Karma]

Suspecting Dragonite only makes sense if ATP isn't on the table

That's exactly how it worked.

--

On another note, the test concluded on Sunday and Dragonite remained UU. I believe this thread was meant to be locked.