Metagame NP: ZU Stage 9 - Snow - Aurorus Banned

[S1nn0hC0nfirm3d]

Ever since the reintroduction of Snow Warning in low tiers, Aurorus has seen much more usage as a special wallbreaker. Blizzard + hail chip damage is a slight upgrade from Refrigerator + Hyper Voice, so there was an incentive to try it out again. More so, the previous best user of this combo, Vanilluxe, was quickbanned shortly after Snow Warning returned. Aurorus remains as one of the strongest and hardest hitting special wallbreakers in the tier, and the lack of consistent counterplay to it largely warrants its suspect test.

A major concern with Aurorus is Meteor Beam + Power Herb, allowing it to boost while attacking, and what little switch-ins exist for it. This set essentially gives Aurorus a wallbreaking power equal to Choice Specs without the Choice lock. That perk is essential given how well suited Aurorus's coverage is; Freeze-Dry and Earth Power cover most Ice-type switch-ins. This means Aurorus may target a slower, vulnerable wall like Tangela, Eldegoss, or Stunfisk with its Ice-type attacks and still have a nuke for switch-ins. Walls like Miltank, Piloswine, and Articuno that may otherwise check its usual coverage could easily succumb to Meteor Beam. There's also a fair degree of variability with its coverage, as situational checks and counters could potentially lose out to the right coverage. For example, trying to pick a sack for Meteor Beam could end up a huge blunder if Rock Polish is revealed; trying to bait out an Ice-type attack by switching in Perrserker could go wrong if it uses Earth Power. Safe to say, one wrong play for the opponent could cause Aurorus eliminating a crucial defensive pick, and there's not much in the metagame that can prevent the worst from happening.

Counterplay to Aurorus revolves around special walls and tanks, baiting out Meteor Beam, and general offensive pressure to exploit its poor defensive typing. The few good switch-ins to Aurorus are still somewhat shakey; all could still go down to repeated hits or fail to check it late-game. Throh resists Meteor Beam and will survive a Blizzard to OHKO back with Circle Throw, but it'll lose the better half of its HP in the process. Alolan Sandslash barely survives Meteor Beam and +1 Earth Power, but thanks to Slush Rush, it can force it out with Iron Head. Malamar tells a similar story as it can be invested to survive Meteor Beam, outspeed Aurorus, and fight back with Superpower. A handful of specific checks using Protect like Miltank and Cyrogonel function to bait out Meteor Beam, but these sets are far from optimal. What works best is using entry hazards to limit switch-ins and strong revenge killers; ZU is stock full of these options. Fighting-types are very popular, and Aurorus won't trade well with targets like Piloswine, Rhydon, Assualt Vest Perrserker, and more unless it is boosted. Playing around Aurorus is a large factor in its counterplay, as it only has a few opportunities to actually make progress in battle, especially given that Meteor Beam is usually a one-time use.

• ***THIS IS NEW TO GEN 8 SUSPECTS*** Reading this is mandatory for participating in the suspect test. The voting requirements are a minimum GXE of 77 with at least 50 games played. In addition, you may play 1 less game for every 0.2 GXE you have above 77 GXE, down to a minimum of 30 games at a GXE of 81. Also, needing more than 50 games to reach 77 GXE will suffice.

Minimum Games Needed

GXE	minimum games
77	50
77.2	49
77.4	48
77.6	47
77.8	46
78	45
78.2	44
78.4	43
78.6	42
78.8	41
79	40
79.2	39
79.4	38
79.6	37
79.8	36
80	35
80.2	34
80.4	33
80.6	32
80.8	31
81	30

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• The suspect test will go on for about 14 days, lasting until January 16th at 11:59 PM GMT -5, and then we will put up the voting thread in the Blind Voting subforum.

Regarding prior Snow Warning bans

Aurorus is NOT being suspected solely because of the unbanning of Snow Warning. The council believes there are inherently broken aspects of Aurorus with or without hail. The council is also well aware of the prior precedents set regarding Snow Warning and how that could possibly be applied to tiering Aurorus, especially given the prior Vanilluxe ban in ZU. However, unlike Vanilluxe, Aurorus is not dependent on Snow Warning to be viable, as relying on Refrigerator would only be a small nerf. Snow Warning itself is too small of a factor here to consider in the tiering process, at least for discourse specifically around banning Aurorus or the ability.

Thus, any discussion regarding banning Snow Warning instead of Aurorus will be deleted.

This thread will be open to allow all users to share their thoughts on this suspect test and discuss with one another their thoughts. Should you have any questions about the suspect test, feel free to message me or anyone else on the ZU council. Keep in mind that our suspect tests are decided by the community; anyone who achieves voting requisites is allowed to vote. The outcome is up to you. Happy posting and laddering!

Avoid posting one-liners or posts that do not contribute to any discussion. They will be deleted.

 

[Corthius]

Mods are faster than me editing my post RIP.
Anyway, I think I haven't been vocal about my opinion on this topic as a whole so here it goes.

I view Aurorus differently in regards to the Hail discussion, as it as a stand-alone pokemon easily deserves the suspect test and the loss of it would hit Hail teams in their viability quite hard, putting them in a balanced place imo. I generally don't view Hail all that broken, just hard to deal with, if you don't account for it properly.
Aurorus on the other hand is wonderful on Hail teams as it compresses both a Stealth Rock and Hail setter but it doesn't have to be used on a (semi-)Hail team nor does it have to run Snow Warning in the first place. It does help with chipping down its checks, but in a case where you're weak versus Alolan Sandslash, not giving it the ×2 speed boost can be crucial (+ you also don't damage your own pokemon).
The suspect test is justified and Aurorus potentially getting banned will (in my eyes) nerf Hail enough to be just fine.
But maybe I'm completly off with this and you guys can tell me better. I'd love to hear more opinions redarding this suspect test!

 

[czim]

This thread has very little content so I guess it's time for me to say why I will be voting ban on Aurorus and maybe swing a few undecided votes.

set

Aurorus @ Power Herb
Ability: Snow Warning
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Meteor Beam
- Blizzard
- Freeze-Dry/Earth Power
- Stealth Rock/Rock Polish

Aurorus is arguably the single best wallbreaker in the SS ZU metagame (90% of the time) even being better than nukes like Flapple or Thievul that can be more easily played around or have more sturdy counters as a whole. What makes Aurorus insane and much better than fellow Meteor Beam user Lunatone (which should be used more because it actually beats some of the few Aurorus answers, but this isn't really the point) is its coverage.
Meteor Beam when backed by STAB Blizzard makes some of the best Rock-resists in the tier not be Aurorus checks (notably Stunfisk and Rhydon). Piloswine is kinda like the only good one that somewhat threatens Aurorus but it also doesn't like eating Meteor Beam. There's also Stunfisk-Galar but that mon has already several issues on its own right but it does check Aurorus well if Thwackey doesn't change Stunfisk-G's type to Grass lol.
Then what else checks Rock? Steel-types like Perrserker and Klinklang aren't really that Sturdy specially and notably Perrserker is outsped by Aurorus, so if you have Earth Power you can just blow right past it. Then there's Sandslash-Alola (our best steel but doesn't resist Rock) which outspeeds Aurorus because of Slush Rush but really doesn't want to eat a +1 Meteor Beam and basically be fodder after. Finally, there's the Fighting-types like Throh, Poliwrath, Sawk, Gurdurr and Silvally-Fighting. And honestly, all of those can be outplayed by the Aurorus user. Throh relies on Restalk for recovery and after some chip it can just die to Meteor Beam into Blizzard because of Hail chip. Poliwrath outspeeds, tanks Meteor Beam and Blizzard and can threaten with STABs but doesn't really want to eat a Freeze-Dry to the face on the switch in. Sawk tanks one hit and threatens Aurorus out but it doesn't do it twice and is not that far from Blizzard range. Gurdurr always revenges Aurorus but its special bulk is lacking and can easily get overwhelmed by common Aurorus partners such as Qwilfish. Finally, Silv-Fighting is like a bulkier Sawk that has a bit more room for outplaying but it also doesn't like taking Blizzards to its face. Then there's stuff like Wishiwashi and Type:Null that can slow pivot on Aurorus, but Wishiwashi loses to Freeze-Dry variants if it eats a Meteor Beam on the switch in. There's also offensive counterplay like Gourgeist-Small, Thwackey and Basculin, but none of thoses are ever switching in. Finally, there's Miltank which only beats Aurorus if it runs Body Press or Hammer Arm (which it usually doesn't want to do).
Well, you realize what a lot of Aurorus counterplay has in common, right? Most of it relies on outspeeding Aurorus and forcing it out/revenging it. If it runs Rock Polish, you kinda lose that counterplay and then it basically gets a lot harder to revenge outside of very fast scarfers like Gourg-Small and Basculin and priority users like Gurdurr and Thwackey. I think counterplay to Aurorus is too conditional and it lacks defensive counterplay.
But these aren't Aurorus only traits, its typing makes it easily the best offensive Rocks setter in the metagame, having a good matchup vs most forms of hazard removal with very few exceptions. It can easily force Stealth Rock on the likes of Altaria, Articuno, Rotom-Fan, Eldegoss and other mons that can do very little to threaten it back. It can also enable Sandslash-Alola on hail which is already not one of the easiest mons to check, but becomes a lot more annoying when paired with Aurorus breaking power early game, making it much easier for Snowslash to go brrr. That just shows that on top of being a very good breaker it also enables a potentially problematic archetype and is too good of a rocker. Aurorus should be banned.
TLDR. Ban Aurorus, it's broken

 

[risin_glory]

So after a ban on aurorus and whatever misery fell upon our beloved alolaslash, the two probably best breakers, the best spinner and one of the biggest glues of the tier are lost. To further the pain, this has happened right before the winter opens. So, in this moment of randomness, what sets, mons and cores should be looked out for? Well, after some discussions in the ZU room here are my views on it:

1) CHILL FROM ANOTHER FRIDGE:
With the departure of its best answer alolaslash, it might very well be the first mon to pick in many people's views and we might very well see a rise in its usage. With really high spa and ice beam bug buzz and giga drain and its departue, theres not much that actually takes a hit from this beast after a Quiver Dance. That doesnt mean theres no answers to it tho. We have mons like SPD and then theres . Theres also and bulky and . Hot take btw, but i think modest is better than +speed cuz the only relevant mons you outspeed with +spe are and , both that i think the team can help beat first.

2) CHILL'S KILLS:
( + //)
This is the army that would most likely see a use to answer the previous chilly breeze of moth. I mentioned the grasses along with rap to represent the tang dash cores from past that could be made into rapi doss and rapi shii cores as well. Agreeing with kay, moth will rise in usage alongwith gunfisk but might eventually fall back taking gunfisk and probably trashlossal with it.

3) BASE COOLIN:
Specs basc could potentially become pretty neat now that poliwrath should ideally fall in usage upon departure of aurorus and sandslash.
It also messes with the tang dash cores.

4) BACK FROM THE SURF:
I think bulky cram could be pretty neat now. No 229 speed mons mean qwil can run max max now and that means cram needs even lesser speed while its surf+bb take down rap moth gunfisk coal basc aka most of the mons that i assume will rise in usage. If someone is crazy enough, they could prolly let go of defog on cram for hurricane as it lets you strike tang/elde/shii of tang dash core and moth both at the same time.

5) SPIN-A-CHU:
Morpeko can be pretty neat at times. it could probably also become a decent spinner given the fact that our most common spin block is basically a rotom that cant do much to peko. Its access to seed bomb can be handy too for late game cleaning against even the likes of rhydon and stunfisk.

And thats probably pretty much it for my speculations. I will now drop 2 variants of a team that i have made hoping both for suggestions and well, more discussion on the current meta overall.

https://pokepast.es/7cb5aef89d0afa17

The tang-dash is a problem variant (the sludge wave from fisk does nearly 70% to a knocked tangela and almost ohkos shii so its more like a bait)

https://pokepast.es/7e9c104119998aaf

The rotom-mane is a problem variant

 

[Corthius]

I'll drop some quick thoughts as well. Please note that I did not put them in any order, rather than just me randomly writing this and them coming to my mind at that time.

3) BASE COOLIN:
Specs basc could potentially become pretty neat now that poliwrath should ideally fall in usage upon departure of aurorus and sandslash.
It also messes with the tang dash cores.

I don't really get why you assume that Poliwrath's usage will drop. While it does lose one of the pokemon it was supposed to check, you also mention other pokemon whos usage potentially rises like Rapidash, Coalossal, Galarian Gunfisk, Klinklang and Perrserker (you didn't mention it but it could very well rise as well). I don't have a big opinion on Basculin overall since I think Wishiwashi is still super prevelant and common, and like you mentioned, walls like Articunon and Cramorant will also rise in usage, making Basculin even harder to use.
It does break TangDash cores, but idt anyone is going to run these and then nothing for Water types at all. Basculin will always be somewhat of a matchup-fish (haha lol) in my eyes.
No bashing and I know you said 'could potentially' but I'm just wondering about the reasoning here.


I know that Snow Warning is still legal, but with Vanilluxe and Aurorus banned, all we have left is Abomasnow and NU banning Slush Rush means you can't even use another aspect of the weather. Abomasnow itself isn't bad nor unviable, but it is no match to the other two hail setter we had and I'm expecting to see a lot less of it in games meaning that manual sun might have a place again in the meta? This is pretty speculative tho.


risin_glory already cut onto this cake, so I don't wanna be too repetitive here. Adding to manual sun, I can see Frosmoth being used on these teams again, as it compresses a check to pokemon the usual sun pokemon struggle with like Altaria and Fire type Weather Ball helps the team breaking Steel types for each other. Losing Alolan Sandslash is huge in my eyes, as most other checks are prone to getting frozen. I know this is a 10% chance and I'm being paranoid but for someone who plays a lot of games, these chances are pretty realistic to face and for me having this safe answer than couldn't be cheesed was really helpful.

&
Basically defensive Flying types, but mainly Articuno and Altaria get a lot better again in my eyes as Articuno can go back to checking many prominent special wallbreaker like Thievul, Jynx and Basculin and Altaria checking the (potentially) better sun teams again both without having to worry about letting two of the best pokemon in the tier in for basically free. Articuno could always U-turn, but it would really hinder its ability to be hazard control.
I personally am a big fan of Articuno as its special bulk lets it compress a check for many offensive threats and it fits really nicely together with the reliable QwilGoss core, letting it freely run U-turn while providing Pressure support, letting you eventually win the pp war against Defog/even Rapid Spin. But that is a niche scenario.

Probably not everything covered I originally planned to but I'm melted and will stop here.
I enjoy the speculative posts a lot and thinking about them so I encourrage everyone reading this to post their thoughts!

 

[risin_glory]

I don't really get why you assume that Poliwrath's usage will drop. While it does lose one of the pokemon it was supposed to check, you also mention other pokemon whos usage potentially rises like Rapidash, Coalossal, Galarian Gunfisk, Klinklang and Perrserker (you didn't mention it but it could very well rise as well). I don't have a big opinion on Basculin overall since I think Wishiwashi is still super prevelant and common, and like you mentioned, walls like Articunon and Cramorant will also rise in usage, making Basculin even harder to use.
It does break TangDash cores, but idt anyone is going to run these and then nothing for Water types at all.

1) Defensive wrath answered both slash and aurorus so it loses 2 mons

2) I didnt really think before in the angle you mentioned, but tbh doesn't that mean flying types in general get better and poli competes with wishi basc cram qwil etc for the water type slot.

So yeh, it being highly speculative, ig wrath future could go either way

(Btw, underestimate basc and it May cost you game. Or atleast thats what my experiences with it suggest)

 

[viet noa]

SS ZU: Post-Ice-Age Era

ZU is approaching a new age, with NU's controversial Alolan Sandslash ban alongside ZU's unanimous ban of Aurorus. The Aurorus ban doesn't come as a shock to anyone, and while it was undoubtedly a fun wallbreaker to use, it was a rather frustrating Pokémon to take on. As a result, its ban came and went with a generally positive reception. The same could not be said about NU's decision to ban Slush Rush, essentially banning Alolan Sandslash. As one of the few bulky Steel-types in the tier, its sheer versatility made it splashable on almost any team style in ZU. While it certainly was an extreme threat as a Swords Dance sweeper in Hail, it also got checked by common defensive staples like Miltank and Wishiwashi. Unfortunately, much like Kingler and Clawitzer's ban in PU, these checks were far from viable in NU. As a result, Snowslash benfitted even harder in that higher tier.

Snowslash will certainly be missed by the community, but nevertheless, how does its departure impact the metagame?



Is TangDash Back?

The meta changes seem to point in favor of the infanous TangDash core that walled many, but it's not going to be on the same level of dominance. Snow Warning's reduced presence will certainly benefit Rapidash, with Morning Sun being more viable as a result. Tangela definitely enjoys the departure of two Ice-types that scared it, as well. While this is great for the core, this doesn't mean that it'll be all sunshine. TangDash is still going to be a very solid core, but it will struggle against the walls that have risen in recent times. Miltank's newfound dominance as a versatile mixed wall means it's easily capable of taking on the core, alongside previous staples like Altaria that already gave it a hard time.

Nevertheless, this meta change will benefit Grass-types. While this is a good sign that TangDash could make a comeback, it's far from a guarantee.



Is Frosmoth Back?

Perpetually in a limbo of viability, Frosmoth's potential has been clear, but major counters still in its way. Most notably, the popularity of Alolan Sandslash really neutered its viability, as it hard countered Frosmoth. Its departure will help a lot, but just how much? Frosmoth still gets halted by notable Pokémon like Rapidash, Klinklang, and Throh. However, none of these mons were nearly as splashable as SnowSlash, so Frosmoth is still a winner. It'll be hard to really imagine it being a dominant threat, though ~ let's not forget how easily revenge killed it is by the likes of Kangaskhan and Scarf Sawk. That aside, I think Frosmoth will be MUCH better now that SnowSlash is gone.



Other Winners

It should go without saying that the Pokémon most negatively affected by SnowSlash and Aurorus will enjoy seeing them leave. Clefairy, Altaria, Articuno, and Cramorant will at the very least not have to worry about those two threats anymore. Other winners include Pokémon that had to compete against those mons. Most notably, I think Jynx had some trouble finding its niche when Aurorus was similarly nightmarish to switch into.

 

[kay]

Well I had a totally different post planned out but then this thing decided to rear its ugly head again. And this time we've lost our 2 best answers in Jelicent and Ferroseed, which has drastically changed its impact in the tier.

Arctovish @ Heavy-Duty Boots / Leftovers
Ability: Water Absorb
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpA / 252 Spe
Naughty Nature
- Fishious Rend
- Freeze-Dry
- Rock Tomb
- Substitute

So at the moment this is looking to be the set to beat when it comes to Vish, which has some pretty decent answers on paper in Eldegoss, Shiiontic, and defensive Poliwraith as well as Qwilfish commonly running pjab now which makes it less of a liability to getting abused by SubVish, which had me hopeful that it would end up being pretty manageable but reality kinda ended up being pretty different. In practice what ended up happening was you can sub on an incoming Shii/Eldegoss, click Freeze Dry as they giga drain your sub, and then you can actually stay in and click freeze dry again as they Giga a second time and it wont heal them enough to not be in range for the third Freeze Dry. This is less of a problem for Eldegoss who has Regen but it keeps Shii from being a consistent answer to Vish. And Poliwraith straight up takes 40% from Freeze Dry so you force it to Rest extremely early in a match and it then comes down to Sleep Talk rolls which also keeps it from being a consistent answer.

Then on the flip side you have more niche but still viable sets like Choice Banded, mixed LO, and even Scarf sets which have drastically different match ups and will all break past thing like Eldegoss and Poliwraith with the right predictions which means the best answers we have to SubVish are just food for other sets which ends up just being a guessing game of "prep for 1 and hope you don't lose to the others" which feels extremely limiting on a mon that already looked extremely limiting just off its main set. This is also helped by the fact that the tier has moved in a way since it last was here where our removal options are just generically better than they were before with stuff like Eldegoss and Defog Rotom gaining new waves of viability in ways that they weren't when Arctovish was last here which makes the non boots sets a lot more manageable to pull off.

I think overall Arctovish from my testing the past 2 days feels extremely over bearing and I don't think we have enough adequate defensive counter play against it that would help counter balance its weaknesses of being slow and awkward typing. We have the removal and pivots to bypass a lot of its weaknesses and the reward for successfully doing so feels way too strong.

 

[Jett]

While it has only been a couple days since Arctovish has been freed, there have already been a few discussions about whether this Pokemon will be too much for the metagame. Evidently, the current landscape being significantly friendlier than its initial stint in the tier is causing these concerns so I thought I'd drop my own opinion on the matter, having messed around with it for a fair few games now.


Sub Arctovish is extremely easy to use; it significantly eases prediction for a Pokemon often thought to be rather prediction reliant to be effective, especially since it uses moves like Fishious Rend and Rock Tomb. Here are a few mons (aka Water-types which every team usually has) that fail to break its Substitute:

- non-Poison Jab sets are hard walled
- 0 Atk Wishiwashi-School U-turn vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Arctovish: 68-80 (21.1 - 24.9%)
- 252 SpA Choice Specs Basculin Ice Beam vs. 0 HP / 4- SpD Arctovish: 32-38 (9.9 - 11.8%) -- possible 9HKO, physical is fine into it

Other than these Pokemon, there are also many others which can break its Sub but can't really afford to stay in like Rhydon, Stunfisk, and Altaria giving it further opportunities to set up a Sub. Unfortunately, switching into Sub Arctovish is difficult since it will, more often than not, avoid having to guess what you'll send out. Losing Ferroseed and Jellicent is a massive change because it puts more of a focus on offensive counterplay like Sawk and Rotom, which can't switch in safely to its Fishious Rend. Defensive Grass-types and Poliwrath are the best at doing so but they are far from consistent giving the fact there is nothing stopping Arctovish clicking Freeze Dry multiple times thanks to Substitute.


Sub isn't its only trick as there are various niche sets that will likely see some experimenting in the near future. Unlike Sub, these sets will be a fair bit less common and more inconsistent so we should be careful with how much weight we give the Arctovish guessing game argument until we actually see these sets being put into practice. Supporting Arctovish on the other hand is very easy and is a large part as to why it has become so obnoxious to deal with for many teams/players. Pivots like Silvally-formes, Cinccino, and Clefairy synergise amazingly with Arctovish as they can lure in defensive Ground-types or Rapidash. Eldegoss' rise over the past few months along with Defoggers like Altaria and Articuno benefitting greatly from Aurorus and Alolan Sandslash leaving, also means that non-Heavy Duty-Boots sets are more reliable. Considering all of this when building against Arctovish can be quite overwhelming.. The mon's offensive typing is just a general nuisance to a lot of builds at the moment, be it TangDash or a QwilGoss team since they all tend to revolve around defensive Grass- and Ground-types and its Speed tier just has happens to be good enough for those said Pokemon.


Arctovish does have several drawbacks and also provide a little benefit to the current metagame that shouldn't be overlooked. Relatively low speed and pretty poor defensive typing, means that there are many Pokemon capable of revenge killing it. Cause of this low base Speed, Fishious Rends won't be doing crazy damage all the time if you are manage to correctly position around it(granted Rock Tomb does swing this a little back in Vish's favour). Type overlaps with three other very good Pokemon that it would otherwise love to be paired with is also pretty annoying for it (by no means impossible to do but building becomes a little more limited); Wishiwashi being the best slow pivot, Qwilfish being a great glue mon, covering its Fighting weakness and offering Spikes support, and Articuno having both Defog and U-turn. Obviously the weakness to Stealth Rocks and dubious defensive typing are also not ideal, even with solid defenses and solid support available since it can leave your teams a little more linear. Vish teams can also struggle when facing off similarly structured VoltTurn teams that utilise a faster wallbreaker (especially ones that can also revenge kill it like BBelt Sawk or Thwackey) than Vish; tho that's not to say it's awful against more offensive teams. I've also personally found its matchup against some of the Water- and Ice-types both good and bad for the metagame. Sure it further bolsters its ability to switch into Pokemon, but it also means that I don't have to use Wishiwashi or Articuno every time I want to avoid losing to something like Specs Basculin or Jynx.

Having said all that, I still believe that it is fairly probable that we'll have to take some course of action on Arctovish in the near future but maybe the metagame can shift enough to deal with it.
(For what that action might be, read the first letter(bolded) of each sentence)