So with the last quickban slate approaching, and not much discussion having occurred on this thread, I wanted to kick things off and give some of my takes on the main Pokémon on the radar: Ursaluna, Basculegion, Urshifu-RS, and Flutter Mane.
First up is
On paper, this thing is ridiculously scary, with 140 base attack, guts, STAB Facade, and a good combo offensive typing of normal + Ground. This leads to crazy calcs where with Facade, it can ko most neutral threats (and just about every non resist with the help of Tera normal, or Helping Hand):
Here’s Facade vs a very physically bulky Amoonguss: 252+ Atk Guts Ursaluna Facade (140 BP) vs. 244 HP / 196+ Def Amoonguss: 381-448 (88.6 - 104.1%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
Here it’s vs what would be a good check in Rillaboom: 252+ Atk Guts Ursaluna Facade (140 BP) vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Rillaboom: 433-510 (107.1 - 126.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Beyond that, it also gets a pretty good spread move in EQ, has a great partner in a TR setter + EQ immune in Cresselia, and even has very respectable bulk:
252+ Atk Choice Band Palafin-Hero Jet Punch vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Ursaluna: 362-428 (78.1 - 92.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after burn damage
With all this, I can see why people think the Cocaine Bear (TM) should be quickbanned. That being said, in my experience, and in the replays I’ve watched, this isn’t always the case. It has poor defensive typing, which can make it difficult to get on the field without a free switch. It’s very reliant on Trick Room, which sometimes can be hard to get up. It speed ties with many other top Pokémon, such as Iron Hands and Diancie, who can make things complicated (diancie with a def boost or two, Iron Hands if it wins the speed tie/underspeeds it), and is undersped by other prevalent TR mons like Torkoal and Amoonguss. From what I’ve seen so far, this has led to struggling to get into that position it wants where it can just click attacks for 3-4 turns and eliminate 3-4 threats:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1880021040-5a120rqw248zhiux32di41vozu84rkbpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1880614518-2pxfboypugythach1coeyv4o83ke6aupw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1880692241-e87yyedkwu0fn728uajcuwbvf22o8eapw
(I know a crit, but it was a roll, and it was in a bad spot, either dying to Rocky helmet or probably using a ground move into Lando-T, maybe they made a good prediction, but even then it’s in a tough spot.)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1877730329-svnvuew9potbzqg6tbi2gx44w2fudfapw
Because of this, I am kinda neutral.
At this point I’d vote Do Not Ban, but I do think if there are some replays showing it just destroying everything/a team that can do a really good job of positioning it, I definitely could be persuaded. Just from what I’ve seen thus far, it’s not quite as good as it is on paper.
Next is
This mon is a bit harder to evaluate, because it really has two different sets. On one hand, it’s a swift swim sweeper with last respects, or it could be an Adaptability attacker to be paired with speed control & occasionally clean up with Aqua Jet. The swift swim sweeper version I haven’t found to be too overpowering, it just is a rain version of Houndstone. Admittedly rain is better due to getting STAB rain boosted water moves, but Houndstone was barely used previously. The swift swim version falters against opposing speed control, with 280 base max speed, any form of opposing tailwind means a lot will outspeed Basculegion. Also, fast booster energy mons like Flutter Mane and Iron Bundle can outspeed Basculegion even in rain. On top of this, if it wants to outspeed Regieleki in rain, it cannot be Adamant. Therefore, it really wants to be positioned correctly (late in game so Last Respects has a high BP, with rain up, no opposing speed control), and even then it still struggles into top metagame threats. It needs 200 BP Last Respects to ohko Rillaboom (150 BP in calc):
252+ Atk Life Orb Basculegion Last Respects vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Rillaboom: 343-406 (84.9 - 100.4%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
And 250 BP to reliably deal with Iron Hands (200 BP in calc):
252+ Atk Life Orb Basculegion Last Respects vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Iron Hands: 391-461 (87 - 102.6%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
So I feel pretty confident the rain set isn’t broken. The adaptability set does hit pretty hard at any point in the game but I haven’t found instances where this has been banworthy at all. Thus I am leaning
Do Not Ban.
Next we have kinda the combination of the first two; water bear
This is a mon that has probably gained the most since last generation, while retaining all its great attributes. Tera has let it power up its Surging Strikes to insane levels while also alleviating it of its worse defensive typing. Tera grass can also be used to ignore ragepowder and obviously flip its typing so that it can just fire off more powerful attacks. Alongside this, the removal of grassy glide limits its biggest check in Rillaboom, and Tapu Fini not being in the tier limits switchins. Urshifu in tailwind had always been a menace, but without those options there’s little left. It also gets back an excellent tailwind partner in Tornadus that lets it outspeed everything, and can taunt opposing speed control.
The main check currently for Urshifu-RS has been Rocky Helmet Amoonguss, which is effective. But with a best friend like Taunt Tornadus, who is able to stop Amoonguss from ragepowdering with taunt or can pressure it with flying moves, Amoonguss can be limited. This leaves Urshifu free to fire off strong attacks in tailwind, with little to check them:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1880614518-2pxfboypugythach1coeyv4o83ke6aupw
Because of this, for Urshifu-RS
I am leaning Ban. I am not 100% certain, as it does have a lot that outspeeds it that checks it (Flutter, Bundle, Regieleki, and opposing speed control), but right now this hasn’t felt like enough.
Last we have
When Flutter Mane was banned previously, it was in a metagame where just about every viable form of speed control had a poor matchup into it w/o Teraing. Tailwind options were dark and dragon types like Roaring Moon, Dragonite, and Murkrow. Trick room options were psychics like Armarouge & Hatterene. The main exceptions to this were Farigiraf and Indeedee-f, but both of these would lose to Chi-Yu, which led to nearly every game becoming who could win with Chi-Yu and Flutter on the field. This is no longer the case, with new speed control options like Tornadus, Diancie, and Thundurus. Even Cresselia is able to live a shadow ball:
252+ SpA Choice Specs Flutter Mane Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Cresselia: 378-446 (85.1 - 100.4%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
This leads to gameplays where players are able to get up speed control and adequately handle Flutter Mane:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1879353487-km5nv0cnrk2lrzpmjn6uevonpssy5elpw
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9doublesou-1880614518-2pxfboypugythach1coeyv4o83ke6aupw
Therefore, I am leaning
Do Not Ban.
I would love to hear other’s thoughts on these mons, or if there are other Pokémon that you think should be considered.
EDIT: I should also mention that of course if something doesn’t get quickbanned, there’s a very good chance it gets suspected sometime soon.