With LC Ekans Draft coming soon I think it is really important to take a look at the broken stuff and quickly remove the mons that are without much doubt broken. Let's first look at the returning LC Ubers : Sneasel, Swirlix, Cutiefly, Gothita, Trapinch, Wingull, Drifloon, Vulpix
It just lost Pursuit but otherwise it's the same it has ever been so it should stay in LC Ubers, there is no point in testing it.
It lost Belly Drum so it got a bit nerfed but apparently it wasn't even its stronger set and it also gets sticky web so it could be tested but I think we can safely keep it in LC Ubers.
It lost Hidden Power but I don't think it's a nerf at all because the two best steel types don't even resist its stabs. It can run Sticky Web, Quiver Dance 3 attacks (Bug Buzz Moonblast Psychic), Quiver Dance Baton Pass which all seem very hard to prepare against, especially the Quiver Dance baton pass one which is absurd, so I don't think there's much point testing it, even if Baton Pass gets banned.
It was very quickly banned last generation but it was allowed in ORAS, so I think it should be tested. The scarf sets seems really good in a very offensive looking metagame. It can punish heavily on any Double Switch, Revenge Kill or U-Turn/Volt Switch. It traps Timburr, Onix, Mareanie, Wingull and even Vullaby and Mudbray with a bit of chip damage. Basically, any mon that is weak to either Psychich, Thunderbolt or Energy Ball (or simply a mon that doesn't resist Psychic and that is not so bulky). It can also trap a bulky mon (or any mon really) like Spritzee or Ferroseed to give its choice scarf. Its main drawback was that it could get Pursuit trapped right after it trapped the threat it wanted to remove, but that's not the case anymore. Pawniard also lost Knock Off so now it doesn't even have to fear giving it a free Knock Off. It can also run a Bulky Set with Calm Mind Psychic Thunderbolt Rest but in such an offensive-looking metagame and given that some of the best defensive mons are now Ferroseeed, Corsola-Galar and Frillish, it finds a harder time setting up, letting only Koffing, Mareanie, Spritzee and Timburr giving it a setup opportunity (which got worse imo). It has drawbacks though, it can give free setup opportunities to mons such as Scraggy, Onix, Drifloon, Vullaby and Galarian Ponyta. But I think this can be fixed in the teambuilder and it seems like it can trap many threats in a game with basic plays like double switching it on an Onix for example, switching in with its decent bulk or revenge killing. It doesn't seem like an absurd force in the metagame like the aforementioned but I think there needs to be a council vote very quickly after testing it for 1-2 weeks.
This mon got hugely buffed : it now has acces to First Impression. It is now not only able to successfully trap many threats but also revenge kill threats with its powerful priority. To give you an idea, its first impression is stronger than Timburr's mach punch. Its Pawniard and Ponyta match-ups got very easy since Pawniard lost knock off and Ponyta lost its ability to power through it with a Z-Flare Blitz (though regular Ponyta it isn't available yet). With 236 defense EVs it can switch on Onix and kill it with Giga Drain. It can also run a bit more speed and Superpower to finish off a weakened Ferroseed, and can even surprise a Mudbray bit Dynamaxing and 2HKO it with Max-Giga Drain. What's even better about it is that it is even kinda difficult to revenge kill, because of the absence of Foonguss, Mienfoo, Staryu and Staryu. This mon got even better than it was in Gen 7 and like Gothita I think it needs to be council voted very quickly after a few weeks of testing it.
Some may say that the removal of nerfed it, but on the opposite I think Dynamax fits it even more than Z-moves. With a Z-move it was able to fire off a strong Supersonic Skystrike with perfect accuracy, but now it can boost its speed, setup rain, hit even harder than supersonic skystrike with rain boosted max geyser, or simply with a life orb boosted max move. It can even heal itself with Rain Dish a have a more decent bulk with an Eviolite, whereas Wingull had to hold a Flynium-Z. It has very few checks, the best one being Water Absorb Chinchou, which can be trapped by Diglett. Spedef Frillish, Spritzee and Corsola could do the job, but they have to fear Knock Off + Dynamaxing. It is hard to switch it in, but once it comes in it is very hard to stop. That said, with an eviolite and a good prediction, you can switch it on Galarian Farfetch'd, Mudbray, Timburr, Drilbur and Cufant, and with its huge speed, and strong stabs, it can easily revenge kill a lot of threats. Just like I said for the two previous one, I think action needs to be taken quickly.
Drifloon lost a big element of what got it banned from ORAS and SM : Recycle. Drifloon is now no longer able to stay in eternally on the field and wait until the opposing Pawniard or Vullaby gets worn down. Unlike the other ghost types, it didn't learn Strength Sap to make up for it. Though I think Drifloon can still be good with a set without Recycle, which would be Shadow Ball/Hex Thunderbolt/Acrobatics Will-O-Wisp Substitute. It can still be pretty annoying, but for a shorter time, and since it doesn't get much switch-in opportunities, this will hurt it a lot. Its ability to burn Vullaby, Pawniard and Onix will be interesting, but I don't think it should get banned or even suspect tested. It should thus be kept in the metagame until Pokemon Home gets released.
Vulpix was at its strongest last gen along with Bellsprout which was a really strong Z-user, but now that only Vulpix made it in the new games and that the only good Sun sweeper is Oddish, which lost access to hidden power, it is looking much healthier. Vulpix gained weather ball and Memento, which makes its choice scarf set better, but Oddish only has his two stabs, which makes way easier to wall with steel types, especially Ferroseed. I think Oddish would either run an
offensive set which can overpower checks like Pawniard, Cufant and Vullaby by putting them to sleep, but is completely unable to damage Ferroseed, so it would need to be paired with a lure; or a
bulkier set that makes use of Strength Sap to use it as the team's Fitghing check (with optionally more defense and HP). Depending on Ferroseed's viability Sun might be good, might be bad, but I think it can stay in the meta until Bulbasaur comes.
So that's it for the older LC Ubers. Now let's take a look at the new mons that could end up in the ban list.
Galarian Corsola has a massive bulk, paired with moves that fit it perfectly in Will-O-Wisp, Strenght Sap, Stealth Rock and Calm Mind. It can even put pressure offensively with its great coverage moves like Ice Beam, to hit Vullaby and Mudbray, or Earth Power to hit Pawniard. Its absurb bulky allows it to switch on any type of threat without Knock Off, here are some calcs :
196+ Atk Mudbray Earthquake vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola : 7-10 (28 - 40%) -- 98.9% chance to 3HKO
236 Atk Onix Head Smash vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 7-10 (28 - 40%) -- 98.9% chance to 3HKO
236 Atk Ponyta Zen Headbutt vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 6-7 (24 - 28%) -- 22.8% chance to 4HKO
196+ Atk Iron Fist Timburr Thunder Punch vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 5-6 (20 - 24%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
116+ Atk Water Bubble Dewpider Liquidation vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 8-12 (32 - 48%) -- 17.6% chance to 3HKO
+2 236 Atk Mold Breaker Drilbur Earthquake vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 13-16 (52 - 64%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+2 236 Atk Shellder Icicle Spear (5 hits) vs. Eviolite 196 HP / 196+ Def Corsola: 15-20 (60 - 80%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
I think there's not much to say about this one, Shell Smash + Baton Pass is just extremely overpowered. You can pair it with Power Trip Pancham, Stored Power Ponyta-Galar, Mudbray or any mon and get an easy sweep with any of them. The question is more about baton pass. Do we ban Baton Pass or do we ban mons that use Baton Pass ? I think banning mons that are broken with Baton Pass is easier, which seem to be Sinistea and Cutiefly at the moment, because I think they have the potential to be overpowered even without Baton Pass anyway, so banning them instead of banning baton pass hits two birds with a single rock. On top of that, with Baton Pass being a TR now, may mons have access to it, so we may see cool strategies with Baton Pass appearing, like in ADV, and if it ends up being unhealthy, we can still ban it later.
:Farfetch
The latter two are very likely to end up banned but Farfetch'd is more debatable. It has huge attack stat of 95 allowing it to be a very strong breaker with Swords Dance. On top of that, it has perfect coverage with Knock Off and Poison Jab, reducing its checks to only a few. To make up for the average speed, it can run a choice scarf set that makes use of its scrappy ability and raw attack stat that can still sweep without any boost. Finally, a variant to the SD Set could be a set with Brave Bird over Poison Jab or SD, to get a speed boost when Dynamaxed. The best answers right now are Wingull, Koffing, Mareanie and Galarian Ponyta, but as I said Wingull could very likely end up banned, Koffing wasn't a defensive staple last gen and while it may get better I don't think it'll be higher than A- and still has to fear +2 Brave Bird without Eviolite, Mareanie can get trapped by Diglett, especially if it gets Knocked Off, and Galarian Ponyta fears Knock Off. But Farfetch'd has obviously a problem with speed, 16 isn't that amazing so if the metagame ends up being really offensive, it may not be that amazing, but even then it can still run a choice scarf set, and with the loss of Abra, Staryu and potentially Wingull, the metagame could be slow enough to have limited revenge killers to Farfetch'd. I think this mon needs to be in the watch list, but it doesn't seem as busted as the ones I previously mentioned, so I think we can keep it a bit longer to see how the metagame adapts to it.
And finally, some mons that were fine last generation may end up broken because of the buffs they got or the favorable metagame changes.
First is Onix which looks really threatening this gen, for many reasons. First it has become way more reliable as a Vullaby answer, since it doesn't need to fear HP Grass anymore. But most importantly, it got really strong offensively. In Gen 7, Onix was very predictable, as it had very few options.
It had the Eviolite or Groundium-Z Weak Armor set with Explosion, Protect or Endure as the last move, or the Sturdy Juice set, which was almost only seen on Webs so it wasn't really a surprise. But now, it gained access to Body Press, Dragon Dance and Head Smash, which make it way more unpredictable offensively. It can either run the classic weak armor set but with the 3 aforementioned moves as options, or a Dragon Dance 3 attacks set with Weak Armor or Rock Head, which makes it really hard to guess what's coming. On top of that, the metagame also got friendlier towards it. Diglett lost Groundium-Z, Snivy, Foonguss, Mienfoo and Staryu are no more, reducing its check list to Timburr, Mudbray (which only comes in once if it has Body Press) and the broken-looking Corsola. I've tried to find answers from LC UU, and I've only found Pumpkaboo-Super (which can still get oblirated by Head Smash or a lucky Rock Blast) and Hippopotas. Corphish and Timburr can revenge kill it with priority though, but Mach Punch doesn't do that much without a defense drop and Corphish's best set looks to be the Jetless Dragon Dance set this gen. The only current drawback Onix has is that it is weak to Trapinch and Scarf Gothita, but I predict those two to be banned pretty quickly. So I think once something happens to the two broken trappers (or even before tbh, it can get around it), there should be an Onix suspect test or a council vote.
Mudbray didn't learn any new move, but like Onix a lot of its threats are gone, which are the same I mentioned about Onix. Mudbray has a really good stats and will now be very coveted as an Onix answer. It also switches way easier on Pawniard and Timburr, since they both lost Knock Off and since Timburr has few reasons to run Ice Punch now. Like Onix, unless we try to run niche mons like Pumpkaboo, Gossifleur and Koffing, it's hard to fit a reliable switch-in to it on a team, but unlike Onix, it's easier to outspeed and revenge kill, but it also way stronger. I think we can give it more time than Onix before having any type of tiering decision about it, and maybe if the answers I mentioned become popular, or once Grassy Surge Grookey gets released, it will be easier to deal with and healthy in the metagame.
Gastly lost a lot of competition as a fast special attacker, and seems to be the best in that category. With the removal of Pursuit, there are really less downsides to using Gastly. But with the removal of Hidden Power, it also got nerfed. It is now way harder to damage Pawniard, with Thunderbolt being its best coverage option against it, and Ferroseed is now able to come in once on Shadow Ball, without having to fear Hidden Power. Your typical Gastly set would be LO 3 attacks Will-O-Wisp or another coverage option over W-O-W. This set has very few answers but is also very frail. Gastly also has the option of Dynamaxing to boost its special attack with Max-Sludge Wave, but it is important to keep in mind that it has only 90 BP. So like Mudbray, I don't think it's unmanageable right now and I think we can let the metagame develops with it, if the average speed drastically drops, making it hard to revenge kill or if we have enough tools to pivot into it, revenge kill it and pressure it enough to prevent it from doing much damage.
Thanks for reading and I hope the council will do a great job at dealing with these mons. To summarise I think that, based on my analysis of the metagame :
Sneasel,
Swirlix,
Cutiefly and Sinistea need to be on the initial ban list;
Gothita,
Trapinch,
Wingull,
Galarian Corsola and
Onix need to be looked at by the council a few weeks after the metagame is available and make a tiering decision, and if needed look at them again in the future;
Drifloon and
Vulpix seem healthy for the pre-pokemon home metagame but once it gets released they need to be looked at again,
:FarfetchGalarian Farfetch'd,
Mudbray and
Gastly could end up too strong for the metagame but can be kept for a bit to see how the metagame develops around them.
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