Introduction
I've always wondered if there was a way to predict how much damage a move will do without having to rely on a damage calculator or "getting a feel for how much damage things do". After thinking about it for a while, I realized this could be feasible, and designed a system to do it. As I developed and tried out the system, I realized that it was far cooler than I had initially thought— it's relatively simple, quite practical as it lets you quickly and accurately estimate damage roll percentages, and it gives an opportunity for a deeper and more useful understanding of pokemon's stats.
The base idea is that you get two special values, power and bulk, and can use these to quickly and easily estimate how much damage a move will do. As an example of the system in action, zero defensive investment Great Tusk has a physical bulk of 11.1, and a 252Atk Lando-T's Earthquake has a power of 4.2. Divide 4.2 by 11.1, and the system tells us that said earthquake will deal a minimum of around 4.2/11.1 = 0.378, so ~38% (which implies a max of ~45%) Note that this division can be quite easily estimated mentally since the numbers involved are so small (<12). Let's see how accurate the estimate was by plugging the scenario into the calculator:
That's pretty close! I was able to estimate that outcome quickly in my head purely from knowing the relevant power and bulk values. What are the implications of this? If I know the bulk of an opposing pokemon and the power of one of my moves, I can estimate how much damage that move will do quickly, in my head, without needing a calc, even if I've never encountered the matchup before.
How it Works
So what is bulk?
Bulk is a value based on an individual pokemon's hp and defensive stat. A pokemon will have a physical bulk value and a special bulk value, and whichever one matches the incoming attack will be used.
You can think of bulk as how much much health a pokemon has against that type of attack, but unlike hitpoints, bulk actually factors in the defensive stat and is therefore far more useful.
Bulk is usually between 3 and 12 and has one decimal place. (For example: uninvested Great Tusk has a physical bulk of 11.1 and a special bulk of 5.3, as mentioned earlier)
The decimal can be omitted or forgotten in exchange for less precision.
Because these values are so lightweight (two 2-digit numbers for a given pokemon or set), they're very easy to remember or pull from a list.
How do you calculate bulk?
Take the relevant defensive stat (the actual stat— not the base stat!) and multiply it with the pokemon's maximum HP value (as in, the HP at full health).
Then, divide the product by 10,000 and round to the nearest tenth.
Let's calculate Great Tusk's physical bulk:
You'll notice that you don't have to manually perform all the calculations; you really just need to multiply HP and Defense and look at the first few digits (1105XX) to know the bulk is 11.1.
What is power?
Similar to bulk, power is a value based on the attacking stat of a given pokemon and the base power of one of its moves. Each attacking move a pokemon has will have a power value.
You can think of power as, well, how powerful an attack is in a vacuum. Unlike base power, this kind of power actually factors in the attacking stat and is therefore far more useful.
Power is typically between 1 and 8 and also has one decimal place, just like bulk. (Example from earlier again: 252Atk Lando-T's Earthquake has a power of 4.2)
And like bulk, these numbers are lightweight and very easy to remember, especially if you constantly use them with moves on your team.
How do you calculate power?
The power calculation has a bit more going on since you're intended to have calculated it beforehand (during the teambuilding process, ideally. This is in contrast with bulk, which helps to remember but can be calculated quickly if needed). Power is still very easy to calculate, though.
First, take the relevant attacking stat and multiply it with the move's base power.
Then, multiply the product by 0.714, and if the pokemon gets STAB, by another 1.5.
Divide by 10,000 and round to the nearest tenth.
Let's calculate that earthquake power for Lando:
As with bulk, you can just look at the big number after doing all the multiplication to find the power quicker.
Now what?
Now that you have the power and bulk values you need, just divide power by bulk! Then, if there's any relevant modifiers like type effectiveness, buffs/debuffs, or abilities, multiply those with the result.
In our example, the 4.2 earthquake against 11.1 tusk yielded 0.378. If the move were super effective, we'd double that; if resisted, halve it. Buffs are slightly harder to calculate, but you'll quicky get good at multiplying small numbers by 2/3, 3/2, etc.
Because both power and bulk are small numbers, dividing them can be done quite easily in your head without much practice. Don't be afraid to smudge the numbers a little to estimate faster!
You'll also very quickly pick up a feel for what the fractions end up equating to, since you'll be encountering the same fractions (4/11, 3/11, 4/10, etc.) a lot as you estimate different interactions. This is the real strength of this system over using a calc: speed.
Finally, the value we got (0.378, or ~38%) is a close estimation of the lowest possible damage percentage. Figuring out the highroll is even simpler: just add a certain number based on what that percentage is.
If you care about knowing highrolls, memorize this handy table to estimate the number you should add:
In our example, 38% is close to 40 so we can add 7%, for a highroll of 45%— this is very close to the real value (44.7%).
And that's how to get power and bulk and use them to estimate damage!
Applications
This system provides a quick way to estimate how much damage a move will do, and it is useful both offensively and defensively.
One of the most useful things it's done for me are quick "will it kill?" checks that save significant time over using a calculator. This is especially true for when the opponent is at full health— I just have to compare my power to their bulk. Is it more than their bulk? It'll kill 100%. Is it slightly less? Down to a roll. Is it significantly less? Won't kill.
Working with small numbers like these, it's really easy to get a feel for how much damage things will do— much easier than with the default stats, where there's multiple numbers in the hundreds to factor.
You'll quickly start to remember the rough outcomes of different moves on different pokemon (like a power 2 move against a bulk 7 mon: ~30%). and be able to do the mental estimation near instantly.
How will I know power and bulk when I need to?
There's three obvious options— make a list, calculate things on the fly, or just try to remember. All three of these are connected and work really well together.
Here's my advice. You've just decided to start using this system. First, take your team and make a list of the power of each of your moves. There's a lot more you can add to this, but you should focus on getting used to the system. Also start a list of the bulks for relevant threats, but you don't need to add anything to it yet.
Here's how the beginning of my team list looked at first:
And the threat list could look something like this:
Now, hop into some games!
When you want to estimate how much damage one of your moves will do, calculate your opponent's bulk and add it to your list. This way, you'll know it for next time without having to calculate it again. This fills up your list organically and make the entries easier to remember.
Now that you have the opponent's bulk, try to remember the power of the move you're using. Remembering this turns out to be super easy after using a set for a little, but if you ever forget, just check the list! The same goes for remembering your pokemon's bulks, or the opponent's bulks and powers.
Doing this will familiarize you with the system while building a list of bulks so you don't have to do it all at once or calculate on the fly too much.
How can I expand on this?
There's a lot of fun stuff you can do!
Here's how I've listed the tera dark Kingambit on my team:
Notice that I have kg's bulk, the power of moves while terastallized, and multiple categories based on supreme overlord. Adding extra situations like these is helpful to avoid having to do more mental math when they come up. Here's a few things to thinking about doing if you want to make a comprehensive list for your team:
If you want to elevate your threats list past simply containing bulk, consider adding the above information for common sets! Of course, you don't need to go into detail as much as you would for your own team— just whatever you think you might need. And remember— the lists are most useful as supplements to get you to the point where you can remember the values off the top of your head.
Conclusion
This system is generally much more digestable than reading the bare stats. Sure, Great Tusk is quite physically bulky but specially weak with a base HP of 115, Def of 131, and SpDef of 53, but how can you quantify that? "Great Tusk has a bulk of 11.1 / 5.3" tells you all you need to know to know exactly how much your big moves will do to it. This is hard to overstate. These values make it much easier to intimately understand the stats of pokemon, and in a very useful way. And they're much easier to remember than base stats!
Let's go back to my team list example with Kingambit. Obviously, a tera dark 5x supreme overlord kowtow cleave is going to be "very powerful", but how powerful? A glance at the power value of 7.2 tells me it'll do just as much damage as a specs chi-yu flamethrower (7.1, including Beads of Ruin)! This makes comparing moves across pokemon and sets so much easier, just as it does for comparing pokemon and their bulk.
Does this really work?
Heck yeah it does! I was surprised at how fun and practical it was when I started using it. It's also suuper satisfying to have a better and more quantifiable understanding of pokemon and their stats. Overall, it's simple, fun, and practical, and I'd highly recommend giving it a go!
And that's Mantis Estimation™! Let me know what you think of it and any experiences you have if you decide to try it out!
I've always wondered if there was a way to predict how much damage a move will do without having to rely on a damage calculator or "getting a feel for how much damage things do". After thinking about it for a while, I realized this could be feasible, and designed a system to do it. As I developed and tried out the system, I realized that it was far cooler than I had initially thought— it's relatively simple, quite practical as it lets you quickly and accurately estimate damage roll percentages, and it gives an opportunity for a deeper and more useful understanding of pokemon's stats.
The base idea is that you get two special values, power and bulk, and can use these to quickly and easily estimate how much damage a move will do. As an example of the system in action, zero defensive investment Great Tusk has a physical bulk of 11.1, and a 252Atk Lando-T's Earthquake has a power of 4.2. Divide 4.2 by 11.1, and the system tells us that said earthquake will deal a minimum of around 4.2/11.1 = 0.378, so ~38% (which implies a max of ~45%) Note that this division can be quite easily estimated mentally since the numbers involved are so small (<12). Let's see how accurate the estimate was by plugging the scenario into the calculator:
That's pretty close! I was able to estimate that outcome quickly in my head purely from knowing the relevant power and bulk values. What are the implications of this? If I know the bulk of an opposing pokemon and the power of one of my moves, I can estimate how much damage that move will do quickly, in my head, without needing a calc, even if I've never encountered the matchup before.
How it Works
So what is bulk?
Bulk is a value based on an individual pokemon's hp and defensive stat. A pokemon will have a physical bulk value and a special bulk value, and whichever one matches the incoming attack will be used.
You can think of bulk as how much much health a pokemon has against that type of attack, but unlike hitpoints, bulk actually factors in the defensive stat and is therefore far more useful.
Bulk is usually between 3 and 12 and has one decimal place. (For example: uninvested Great Tusk has a physical bulk of 11.1 and a special bulk of 5.3, as mentioned earlier)
The decimal can be omitted or forgotten in exchange for less precision.
Because these values are so lightweight (two 2-digit numbers for a given pokemon or set), they're very easy to remember or pull from a list.
How do you calculate bulk?
Take the relevant defensive stat (the actual stat— not the base stat!) and multiply it with the pokemon's maximum HP value (as in, the HP at full health).
Then, divide the product by 10,000 and round to the nearest tenth.
Let's calculate Great Tusk's physical bulk:
Uninvested Great Tusk has 371 HP and 298 Def.
Multiply HP and Def to get 371 * 298 = 110558
Divide by 10,000 to get 110558/10000 = 11.0558
Round to the nearest tenth to get a final result of 11.1
You'll notice that you don't have to manually perform all the calculations; you really just need to multiply HP and Defense and look at the first few digits (1105XX) to know the bulk is 11.1.
What is power?
Similar to bulk, power is a value based on the attacking stat of a given pokemon and the base power of one of its moves. Each attacking move a pokemon has will have a power value.
You can think of power as, well, how powerful an attack is in a vacuum. Unlike base power, this kind of power actually factors in the attacking stat and is therefore far more useful.
Power is typically between 1 and 8 and also has one decimal place, just like bulk. (Example from earlier again: 252Atk Lando-T's Earthquake has a power of 4.2)
And like bulk, these numbers are lightweight and very easy to remember, especially if you constantly use them with moves on your team.
How do you calculate power?
The power calculation has a bit more going on since you're intended to have calculated it beforehand (during the teambuilding process, ideally. This is in contrast with bulk, which helps to remember but can be calculated quickly if needed). Power is still very easy to calculate, though.
First, take the relevant attacking stat and multiply it with the move's base power.
Then, multiply the product by 0.714, and if the pokemon gets STAB, by another 1.5.
Divide by 10,000 and round to the nearest tenth.
Let's calculate that earthquake power for Lando:
252Atk Lando-T has 389 Atk and Earthquake has a base power of 100.
Multiply these two to get 389 * 100 = 38900
Multiply by 0.714, and then 1.5 because Lando gets STAB: 38900 * 0.714 * 1.5 = 41661.9
Divide by 10,000 to get 41661.9 / 10000 = 4.16619
Round to the nearest tenth to get a final result of 4.2
As with bulk, you can just look at the big number after doing all the multiplication to find the power quicker.
Now what?
Now that you have the power and bulk values you need, just divide power by bulk! Then, if there's any relevant modifiers like type effectiveness, buffs/debuffs, or abilities, multiply those with the result.
In our example, the 4.2 earthquake against 11.1 tusk yielded 0.378. If the move were super effective, we'd double that; if resisted, halve it. Buffs are slightly harder to calculate, but you'll quicky get good at multiplying small numbers by 2/3, 3/2, etc.
Because both power and bulk are small numbers, dividing them can be done quite easily in your head without much practice. Don't be afraid to smudge the numbers a little to estimate faster!
You'll also very quickly pick up a feel for what the fractions end up equating to, since you'll be encountering the same fractions (4/11, 3/11, 4/10, etc.) a lot as you estimate different interactions. This is the real strength of this system over using a calc: speed.
Finally, the value we got (0.378, or ~38%) is a close estimation of the lowest possible damage percentage. Figuring out the highroll is even simpler: just add a certain number based on what that percentage is.
If you care about knowing highrolls, memorize this handy table to estimate the number you should add:
| —————— | Minimum Percentage | Number to Add | ———————————————————————————————————————————————— |
| 10 | 2 | ||
| 20 | 3.5 | ||
| 30 | 5 | ||
| 40 | 7 | ||
| 50 | 9 | ||
| 60 | 10.5 | ||
| 70 | 12 | ||
| 80 | 14 | ||
| 90 | 16 | ||
| 100 | 17.5 |
And that's how to get power and bulk and use them to estimate damage!
Applications
This system provides a quick way to estimate how much damage a move will do, and it is useful both offensively and defensively.
One of the most useful things it's done for me are quick "will it kill?" checks that save significant time over using a calculator. This is especially true for when the opponent is at full health— I just have to compare my power to their bulk. Is it more than their bulk? It'll kill 100%. Is it slightly less? Down to a roll. Is it significantly less? Won't kill.
Working with small numbers like these, it's really easy to get a feel for how much damage things will do— much easier than with the default stats, where there's multiple numbers in the hundreds to factor.
You'll quickly start to remember the rough outcomes of different moves on different pokemon (like a power 2 move against a bulk 7 mon: ~30%). and be able to do the mental estimation near instantly.
How will I know power and bulk when I need to?
There's three obvious options— make a list, calculate things on the fly, or just try to remember. All three of these are connected and work really well together.
Here's my advice. You've just decided to start using this system. First, take your team and make a list of the power of each of your moves. There's a lot more you can add to this, but you should focus on getting used to the system. Also start a list of the bulks for relevant threats, but you don't need to add anything to it yet.
Here's how the beginning of my team list looked at first:
And the threat list could look something like this:
Now, hop into some games!
When you want to estimate how much damage one of your moves will do, calculate your opponent's bulk and add it to your list. This way, you'll know it for next time without having to calculate it again. This fills up your list organically and make the entries easier to remember.
Now that you have the opponent's bulk, try to remember the power of the move you're using. Remembering this turns out to be super easy after using a set for a little, but if you ever forget, just check the list! The same goes for remembering your pokemon's bulks, or the opponent's bulks and powers.
Doing this will familiarize you with the system while building a list of bulks so you don't have to do it all at once or calculate on the fly too much.
How can I expand on this?
There's a lot of fun stuff you can do!
Here's how I've listed the tera dark Kingambit on my team:
Notice that I have kg's bulk, the power of moves while terastallized, and multiple categories based on supreme overlord. Adding extra situations like these is helpful to avoid having to do more mental math when they come up. Here's a few things to thinking about doing if you want to make a comprehensive list for your team:
- Bulk
- Bulk while under an expected buff, like 1x calm mind, dauntless shield, etc.
- Move power
- Move power while terastallized
- Move power while under an expected buff, like 1x dragon dance, supreme overlord, or even intimidate if you're feeling cool
- Sum power for 2, 3, 4, and 5 hits for multihit moves
- Critical move power for high-crit-ratio moves or the likes of flower trick
Conclusion
This system is generally much more digestable than reading the bare stats. Sure, Great Tusk is quite physically bulky but specially weak with a base HP of 115, Def of 131, and SpDef of 53, but how can you quantify that? "Great Tusk has a bulk of 11.1 / 5.3" tells you all you need to know to know exactly how much your big moves will do to it. This is hard to overstate. These values make it much easier to intimately understand the stats of pokemon, and in a very useful way. And they're much easier to remember than base stats!
Let's go back to my team list example with Kingambit. Obviously, a tera dark 5x supreme overlord kowtow cleave is going to be "very powerful", but how powerful? A glance at the power value of 7.2 tells me it'll do just as much damage as a specs chi-yu flamethrower (7.1, including Beads of Ruin)! This makes comparing moves across pokemon and sets so much easier, just as it does for comparing pokemon and their bulk.
Does this really work?
Heck yeah it does! I was surprised at how fun and practical it was when I started using it. It's also suuper satisfying to have a better and more quantifiable understanding of pokemon and their stats. Overall, it's simple, fun, and practical, and I'd highly recommend giving it a go!
And that's Mantis Estimation™! Let me know what you think of it and any experiences you have if you decide to try it out!
