Recent Trends from the SV OU Release Tour

By hamiltonion. Released: 2023/01/17.

Art by Alcor.

Introduction

A brand new generation of OU has kicked off with a longstanding Smogon tradition: the generational OU release tournament. Release tournaments often spark rapid metagame development, leading to the emergence of specific move, item, or Tera type choices to enable Pokémon to beat certain counters, e.g. Covert Cloak Gholdengo beating Garganacl, and the optimization of existing movesets. During the early days of a generation, the metagame evolves at a blistering pace, on the timescale of a few days to a week. An outcome of this rapid development means that monthly usage statistics can often miss rapid shifts in the metagame such as the rise of Hatterene over the course of this tour. In this regard, release tournaments offer a unique opportunity to help us document the early evolution of the metagame. An additional advantage of tournament-based statistics is that they allow us to calculate winrates. This is especially useful early in the life of a metagame for predicting future metagame trends, as more teams start incorporating high-winrate Pokémon and cores. The release tournament can be roughly divided into three distinct metas—an early meta after Flutter Mane and Houndstone were banned, a post-Palafin and Iron Bundle meta, and finally a Terastallization suspect meta where we see evidence of the metagame beginning to settle. In this article, we take a deep dive into each of these three metas, looking at usage statistics, identifying winrate outliers, and analyzing replays showcasing influential teams.

Round 1: Flutter Mane and Houndstone Ban Meta

Total battles: 429
Rank	Pokémon	RawUsage	Usage %	Win%
1	Gholdengo	343	0.400	0.519
2	Great Tusk	260	0.303	0.554
3	Corviknight	236	0.275	0.581
4	Chien-Pao	190	0.221	0.484
5	Dragapult	190	0.221	0.589
6	Palafin	186	0.217	0.516
7	Chi-Yu	184	0.214	0.565
8	Dragonite	182	0.212	0.577
9	Iron Bundle	182	0.212	0.533
10	Iron Valiant	175	0.204	0.491

The Top 10

This time was the Wild West of the SV OU meta. The most egregious offenders in Flutter Mane and Houndstone had been dealt with; however, the general consensus was that Game Freak had unleashed the biggest generational power creep since BW OU, maybe even exceeding it. Adding fuel to fire was the gimmick of the generation, Terastallization, which enabled devastatingly powerful STAB attacks as well as defensive counterplay through type changes. Offense was king with behemoths like Palafin, Iron Bundle, Chi-Yu, and Chien-Pao making most defensive answers irrelevant with their unbelievable power, Speed, and coverage. After a Bulk Up, Palafin could sweep most teams not packing Dragonite or Toxapex while shutting down the latter with Taunt. Iron Bundle, on the other hand, used its unresisted STAB combination in Freeze-Dry and Hydro Pump to cleave through most teams. Chi-Yu and Chien-Pao stretched the definition of what OU's offensive threats were capable of; thanks to their respective Ruin abilities, incredible stats, and typing, they are both incredibly hard to wall while also being able to run a plethora of sets. With Tera Fire, Overheat from Modest Specs Chi-Yu has a chance to OHKO 248 HP/ 252+ SpD Clodsire and does at least 77% to 252 HP/ 252+ SpD Ting-Lu. Chien-Pao was an equally terrifying physical counterpart, 2HKOing defensive Corviknight and Dondozo with Tera Dark Crunch. Gholdengo was a further boon to offense with the ability to completely shut down any entry hazard removal while possessing an incredible typing, ability, and coverage to boot. Between the Ghost / Steel typing and Good as Gold, Gholdengo shut down Defog, Rapid Spin, and Mortal Spin, the 3 most common hazard removal tools available. In addition, Dragonite emerged as a potent user of Tera, firing off STAB Extreme Speed to sweep most weakened offenses. However, despite the threat saturation, defensive Pokémon still showed they have a place with Great Tusk and Corviknight placing in the top 10. This was largely due to these two being the premier options for hazard removal that did not get blanked by Gholdengo. Ironically, the rise of Gholdengo Spikes stack teams meant hazard removal was even more critical than usual. Great Tusk could threaten a potential Gholdengo attempting to spinblock with Earthquake or Knock Off, while Corviknight could keep momentum up with U-turn.

Winners and Losers

Despite the litany of offensive threats introduced this generation, the highest winrate was earned by a returning star. In an offense-infested metagame, Dragapult thrived, reprising its role as the premier offense slayer from SS OU. Thanks to its excellent base 142 Speed, Dragapult could outspeed the entire tier while possessing enough power and coverage to revenge kill threats. Dragapult could also run a variety of sets ranging from Choiced (either Specs or Band) to Heavy Duty Boots Wisp + Hex sets, each requiring different answers. Surprisingly, despite the dominance of offensive threats, Corviknight and Great Tusk both sported high winrates. Both offer tremendous role compression, being able to act as defensive checks, provide sufficient offensive options, and remote entry hazards without being a liability against Gholdengo. Other Pokémon with similar usage and winrates were Chi-Yu and Dragonite. Chi-Yu could either become a nigh-unwallable wallbreaker using its Choice Specs set or become a potent cleaner against offense with its Choice Scarf set. Dragonite, on the other hand, utilized Tera Normal Extreme Speed along with Multiscale and Dragon Dance to pull off a convincing Extreme Killer Arceus impression. As honorable mentions, Glimmora and Scizor, even though outside the top 10 in usage, boasted very respectable 58 and 54% winrates. Glimmora enabled powerful hazard stacking offenses in conjunction with Gholdengo's ability to block hazard removal, while Scizor's powerful priority against the likes of Iron Valiant, Iron Bundle, and Chi-Yu made it an important offensive check to key threats.

Featured Replay: Shade1x vs Freezai

This replay highlights the speed and intensity of early SV OU offense vs offense games. Freezai sets up Stealth Rock and Spikes against Shade1x and is able to spinblock with his Tera Psychic Gholdengo, which also nabs a surprise KO on Clodsire with Psyshock. A few trades later, Freezai is able to bring in his Dragonite on Choice Scarf Chi-Yu. With Corviknight sufficiently worn down from Stealth Rock, Dragonite dispatches it with a Thunder Punch and sweeps the rest of Shade1x's team.

Round 2/3 - Palafin and Iron Bundle Ban Meta

Total battles: 469
Rank	Pokémon	RawUsage	Usage %	Win%
1	Gholdengo	454	0.484	0.522
2	Great Tusk	300	0.320	0.533
3	Corviknight	283	0.302	0.498
4	Chi-Yu	267	0.285	0.558
5	Chien-Pao	253	0.270	0.534
6	Iron Valiant	252	0.269	0.544
7	Dragonite	234	0.249	0.530
8	Ting-Lu	207	0.221	0.570
9	Dragapult	203	0.216	0.448
10	Garchomp	188	0.200	0.511

The Top 10

After weeks of intense scrutiny, Palafin and Iron Bundle were finally banned from SV OU. The departure of the foremost offensive threats allowed the tier to breathe a little, with hyper offense giving way for bulkier offenses. Offense still remained the dominant playstyle, with Chi-Yu, Chien-Pao, and Iron Valiant rising to fill the void left by Iron Bundle and Palafin's ban. Gholdengo further cemented its central role in the meta with an eye-watering 48% usage. With the evolution of the metagame, new Gholdengo sets such as Air Balloon Nasty Plot began rising in popularity to beat its common answers. Specifically, common switch-ins like Clodsire and Ting-Lu could no longer touch Gholdengo, with the item also enabling a one-time safe spinblock against Great Tusk and Iron Treads. Defensive glues in Corviknight and Great Tusk held on to their top 10 usage, while Ting Lu usage soared from previous rounds (+13%) due to its ability to check Chi-Yu. Thanks to Vessel of Ruin and its resistance to Dark, Ting-Lu could soak a few hits from Chi-Yu while setting up entry hazards in its face. However, it was far from an ironclad counter, since lack of recovery outside Leftovers meant it was very prone to being chipped down. Dragonite's usage held steady due to the power of the Tera Normal Extreme Speeds. Another familiar face from previous gen OU in Garchomp snuck into 10th place. With newfound access to Spikes, Garchomp was utilized as a bulky dual hazard setter while also being able to phaze opposing Pokémon with Dragon Tail.

Winners and Losers

The "defense wins championships" maxim rang true once again, as Ting-Lu showcased the highest winrate at 57%. Access to Stealth Rock and Spikes in addition to Whirlwind, STAB Earthquake, and Ruination meant Ting-Lu had solid utility beyond checking Chi-Yu. Offensive powerhouses Chi-Yu, Chien-Pao, and Iron Valiant also had winning records. Outside the top 10, Hatterene boasted an impressive 58% winrate as it emerged as a powerful anti-meta choice. Magic Bounce enabled Hatterence to proactively prevent entry hazards, allowing it to support offensive giants like Choice Specs Chi-Yu and Choice Band Chien-Pao. Thanks to its bulk and offensive coverage, Hatterene could either run a Calm Mind set with Mystical Fire to punish Steels or opt for a more utility-based set with Nuzzle. However, although it was a menace in the pre-ban metagame, Dragapult's winrate badly suffered (-14%) as teams starting adding bulkier checks like Ting-Lu.

Featured Replay: crying vs Star

This game between two tournament veterans demonstrates the power of positioning in offensive games. The game begins with crying nabbing an early KO on Rotom-W with her Tera Grass Choice Scarf Chi-Yu. With Rotom dead, crying's Choice Band Lokix becomes a problem for Star's team. crying exploits this weakness masterfully, using Chi-Yu to lure Star's Ting-Lu into her Lokix. Star is forced to bring in his Choice Scarf Gholdengo, his only reliable switch-in to Leech Life. This sequence of plays creates a very unpleasant situation for Star. KOing Lokix with Make it Rain opens him up to crying's Annihilape, whereas Shadow Ball doesn't even 3HKO due to Leech Life's healing. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, Star chooses an aggressive line, switching to his Chien-Pao to catch a potential Ting-Lu switch. crying simply stays in with Lokix and KOes Chien-Pao with Leech Life. This basically immediately wins crying the game with Ting-Lu stonewalling any threat to Choice Specs Dragapult. Star makes a last-ditch effort with his Calm Mind Hatterene, but specially defensive Bulk Up Corviknight and Lokix are sufficient to dispatch of it.

Round 4/5/6/7 - Terastallization Suspect Test Meta

Total battles: 200
Rank	Pokémon	RawUsage	Usage %	Win%
1	Gholdengo	167	0.417	0.515
2	Corviknight	135	0.338	0.511
3	Ting-Lu	125	0.312	0.504
4	Great Tusk	116	0.290	0.440
5	Chi-Yu	113	0.282	0.522
6	Chien-Pao	107	0.268	0.542
7	Iron Valiant	100	0.250	0.550
8	Dragonite	98	0.245	0.490
9	Hatterene	93	0.233	0.559
10	Dragapult	88	0.220	0.500

The Top 10

We finally see evidence of the metagame beginning to stabilize in the final rounds of the tournament. Gholdengo still reigned supreme as the most used Pokémon, although now with slightly less usage. Defensive mainstays of tier in Corviknight, Ting-Lu, and Great Tusk showed a strong presence in the metagame with roughly 30% usage. Ting-Lu in particular continued surging in usage from previous weeks with another 10% increase. The most common offensive threats in Chi-Yu, Chien-Pao, Iron Valiant, and Dragonite remained top picks. In accordance with its fantastic winrate in previous weeks, Hatterene saw a massive spike in usage, rising 10% and breaking into the top 10 for the first time. The metagame forces driving Hatterene's use were the same as last time with Great Tusk and Hatterene supporting entry hazard weak wallbreakers like Chi-Yu and Chien-Pao. Dragapult continued to fall in popularity in tandem with its poor winrate from the prior weeks.

Winners and Losers

As the metagame stabilizes, we find winrates of most highly used Pokémon trending toward 50% with few outliers. Surprisingly, Hatterene emerged as the highest-winrate Pokémon in the top 10 with a near 56% winrate. This was likely driven by the strength of the Great Tusk / Hatterene / wallbreaker cores that started to dominate. Among offensive threats, Iron Valiant and Chien-Pao had the highest winrates with roughly 55%, with Chi-Yu slightly lower at 52%, suggesting that the meta was evolving to counter the omnipresent threat of Chi-Yu. For the first time, Great Tusk's winrate also dipped below 50% although the cause of the dip wasn't entirely clear. One might speculate that the rise of Hatterene might have contributed. Strikingly, among all Pokémon with greater than 5% usage, Scizor had the highest winrate at 61%, suggesting it might be a hidden gem in the current meta.

Featured Replay: crying vs xavgb

In this game, xavgb utilizes unorthodox picks in Encore Maushold and Choice Specs Slowking to take apart crying's standard bulky offense. xavgb obtained an early advantage with crying not expecting Choice Specs-boosted Surf from Slowking doing 54% to Ting-Lu, putting it into 2HKO range of Choice Scarf Chi-Yu's Flamethrower. crying attempts to set up on Slowking with Annihilape but is once again surprised by xavgb's Encore Maushold. The rest of the game involves xavgb finding opportunities to bring in his Choice Scarf Chi-Yu to pick apart crying's team. In the end, crying tries to set up an Espathra sweep, but Encore Maushold once again puts an end to that, and crying finally throws in the towel.

Final Thoughts

The SV OU metagame shows all the hallmarks of innovation and vibrancy that make early generation competitive battling so much fun. Although it seemed like the meta was starting to settle by the end of the tour, the release of Cinderace into OU means the dominant offensive structures in hazard stacking offensives with Gholdengo now have a wrench thrown in their plans thanks to Court Change. With Tera remaining unrestricted and Chi-Yu, Annihilape, and Cyclizar ending up banned, the metagame will continue to evolve as new dominant Pokémon and team structures come to the fore. Exciting times lie ahead!

HTML by Lumari.

« Previous Article