Draft Pokémon on the Rise and Fall

Art by Gaboswampert.

Introduction

As Generation 9 rounds into the final bend of its lifetime, with DLC2 being firmly behind us, the Draft metagame is still roaring on and developing in a meaningful manner. But compared to standard play, seeing the likes of Pokémon like Chi-Yu and Urshifu legal but Pokémon like Latias Tera banned can seem confusing and difficult to understand for an outsider who has never played Draft before. If you are an outsider and have never played in a Generation 9 Draft, or even if you’re a storied veteran of Generation 9 Draft, use this list as a comprehensive, if limited, guide on some of the current Pokémon that are “hot” or “not,” or alternatively:

Pokémon on the Rise and Fall:

This article will cover three Pokémon I believe to be on the rise, or Pokémon that have seen large metagame shifts in their favor, including, but not limited to, new tools, like legalizing Battle Bond, or the rise of Grass as an offensive typing in an attempt to punish the high-tiered Water-types and popular defensive Tera Water options. A Pokémon is not considered to be "on the rise" only because the tiering council has increased its price late in the generation or because it is being drafted in earlier rounds that wasn’t seen in prior tournaments, though those are good, independent, pieces of evidence that correlate to a larger metagame trend.

Contrarily, this article will also cover three Pokémon I believe to be on the fall, or Pokémon that have seen large metagame shifts against their favor. These shifts could be anything from new strategies and increasingly common cores becoming more popular, to once overlooked flaws that went largely ignored, such as bad typings. Again, a Pokémon is not "falling off" only because the tiering council lowered its price or because it is being drafted in later rounds than expected, if at all.

Ultimately, this list serves two functions for two different audiences. To the new Draft player, use this list as a launching point for conducting your own research and coming to your own conclusions. While I believe this list covers the most important Pokémon on the rise and fall in Generation 9, I purposefully excluded some higher-tier Pokémon as well as all mid- and low-tier Pokémon from this list. Conversely, to the Draft mains who have been here since the Kickoff, use this article as a point of discussion. I may believe that these Pokémon are rising or falling, but I also can acknowledge that this list is my opinion and that not everyone will agree with my thoughts. If you do find yourself disagreeing with my thoughts, I urge you to enter the upcoming Spring Seasonal in 2025 and prove me wrong. Without further ado:

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Pokémon on the Rise:

Greninja

Game Freak's most beloved ninja, Greninja, has been making waves again after Generation 8 saw its departure through Dexit. But in Generation 9, Game Freak knew that Greninja couldn’t come back without a cost: an update to Greninja’s powerful abilities, Protean and Battle Bond. In prior generations, these abilities were banned for being considered too powerful for Greninja to have; however, in Generation 9, both abilities received a significant nerf, as Protean only activates once per switch in and Battle Bond only activates once per game. Deemed competitively viable, these abilities were unbanned from Draft. Greninja was left largely overlooked for the first few months, with many players believing the nerfs to be too significant to Greninja, leaving it as a solid round 2-3 pick. But make no mistake, this is far from a nerf, and a Greninja with Battle Bond’s +1 boosts to Attack, Special Attack, and Speed is a menace to deal with, allowing it to clean up any team at any time.

And what makes Greninja extra potent in Generation 9 is the sheer variety of team compositions it can fit on. Greninja works great with Deoxys-S, where both Pokémon can be both physical or special and run Spikes-stacking sets, keeping your opponents guessing on which Pokémon will sweep you and when. Greninja also plays great on Raging Bolt teams, providing additional specially offensive pressure to threaten the Ground-types that challenge Raging Bolt while also forming a VoltTurn core with U-turn. And more recently, Greninja has been seen paired with Terapagos, which acts as a good bulky support Pokémon to assist with Greninja’s less than stellar defenses. Additionally, Greninja pairs well with Pokémon that are banned from Terastallizing or don’t want to Terastallize like Iron Valiant and Great Tusk, since Terastallization allows Greninja to pack that extra punch needed to break through powerful walls with the 2x STAB boost or gain extra coverage and a defensive advantage. For example, Tera Electric breaks through bulky Water-types that might stop a non-Terastallized Greninja, as well as providing an immunity to Thunder Wave, another tool that would cripple a Greninja looking to end the game.

But to turn back to Battle Bond for a minute here, it’s hard to understate just how oppressive Battle Bond is in the current metagame. Generation 9 has been dominated historically by offensive builds and defined by wallbreaking and cleaning power—both of which Greninja already brings to the table, even before the additional boosts. And Battle Bond rewards Greninja for something it was good at already: forcing hyper-specific prep. Common checks like Meowscarada and Ogerpon are forced to run Choice Scarf to outrun Greninja’s Battle Bond +1 Speed boost, and Pokémon like Iron Valiant and Deoxys-S have to waste a valuable moveslot on a priority option like Vacuum Wave or Extreme Speed to avoid Greninja sweeping their team. Very few Pokémon in Generation 9 provide the amount of oppression in the teambuilder that Greninja does, which is a driving factor behind Greninja’s continued success in Generation 9.

Terapagos

It’s hard to understate Draft’s newfound love of the generation’s cutest turtle. Originally believed to just be an above-average spinner that required Heavy-Duty Boots to perform well, Terapagos has consistently proven itself to be multifaceted and able to adapt and thrive in the current metagame. Sporting arguably the three most important utility moves in the game in the Rapid Spin, Toxic, and Stealth Rock, these three tools alone make Terapagos one of the most sought-after Pokémon in Generation 9, but that is just the tip of what this cute turtle can do. With excellent coverage in the forms of Flamethrower, Earth Power, and Thunderbolt, Terapagos has the luxury of being able to pick and choose which opposing Pokémon it would like to fight and when, given it also has access to good offensive utility options like Rock Polish and Calm Mind. And this is all without mentioning maybe the two most important tools in its toolkit: Terapagos’s ability, Tera Shell, and its signature move, Tera Starstorm.

Tera Starstorm, a 120-Base Power STAB option, is the attacking move of choice for Terapagos. It slots in nicely with Rock Polish or Calm Mind while still providing a strong damaging option on a utility set, which tends to want to run more bulk so that Terapagos can stick around and remove hazards for longer. And nothing helps with bulk more than Tera Shell, Terapagos’s signature ability that, at full HP, makes any non-Ghost-type attack not very effective. This means that Terapagos can even shrug off powerful STAB Fighting-type attacks that would have otherwise dealt significant damage, allowing Terapagos to hit back incredibly hard or set up in order to win the game then and there. On top of that, Tera Shell provides a strong defensive stopgap to powerful opposing Pokémon setting up to go for the sweep. This additional utility gives Terapagos the flexibility to run an item like Red Card when facing opposing hyper offensive builds or Roar to force out bulky defensive Pokémon that would otherwise be hard to overcome offensively in a pinch.

But what makes Terapagos a rising star currently is its access to so many options. Calm Mind and Rock Polish on offensive sets, Toxic and Stealth Rock on utility sets—there are so many ways to use this Pokémon. Combinations like Chesto Berry + Rest have been seen more frequently with offensive Calm Mind sets to give Terapagos access to Tera Shell again, since it has no other form of recovery. Rapid Spin has been thrown on offensive sets in place of Rock Polish for a hybrid offensive utility set that can be dangerous late-game. Stat-boosting items like Kee Berry give matchup-specific tech to catch foes off guard. The sky’s the limit for this Pokémon, and Terapagos has everything going for it right now, in terms of options and set variety, and has rightfully established itself as a current rising star in the metagame.

Zarude

From “solid round 4 pick or onwards” to one of the most important Pokémon in the metagame, Zarude has had arguably one of the most explosive rises of any Pokémon in Generation 9. First introduced with the Pokémon HOME update in May of 2023, Zarude went largely overlooked for all of 2023 and most of 2024 (it was only drafted nine times in the open part of the Summer Seasonal), so why has Zarude had such an incredible breakout recently?

To answer that question, we need to go back a bit, back to when Terastallizing Latias was legal. Latias was the “it Pokémon” of Winter Seasonal 2024 and Draft League World Cup I. With amazing boosting options, like Agility and Calm Mind; great bulk, with base 90 Defense and base 130 SpDef; the ability to use Tera types to flip weaknesses, particularly with Steel and Poison to resist Fairy-type attacks and hit Fairy-types back hard as well as synergizing well with Levitate; great base Speed, at a faster than average 110; amazing offensive options in Draco Meteor and Mist Ball as well as all the coverage you could ever possibly need; and reliable recovery with Recover—needless to say, Latias can do it all. However, after Latias was Tera banned, there was a Latias-shaped hole left in Generation 9. And well, Zarude fills this “everything” hole left by Latias.

Built like a truck, Zarude sports a cool base 120 Attack stat with the bulk to back it up, with base 105 HP and Defense, and paired with base 105 Speed, Zarude can certainly outspeed a truck if needed. But where Zarude really shines is in its movepool. Zarude has everything it could ever need and more: powerful offensive options like Knock Off (a move only added to Zarude’s toolkit in DLC1, a major factor that caused Zarude to be overlooked initially), Power Whip, and Trailblaze as STAB moves; amazing coverage in Drain Punch, Acrobatics, and Rock Slide; the best utility Generation 9 has to offer an offensive Pokémon in Taunt, Encore, and Roar; incredible setup and sweeping potential with Bulk Up and Swords Dance; and, of course, reliable recovery with Synthesis and Jungle Healing—the latter of which kept its 16 PP from Generation 8 and cures any status. Much like the Latias of old, Zarude can and will do it all.

And much like Latias, giving Zarude the ability to Terastallize out of its dual Dark / Grass typing is an incredibly powerful option on an already great Pokémon. While historically Dark / Grass is a bad typing, with a quadruple weakness to U-turn, having STAB on Dark- and Grass-type attacks in Generation 9 but none of the downsides that come with the typing is incredibly powerful. And when paired with the ability to prepare for your opponent’s team, Zarude becomes a monster, with the ability to run either an offensive or defensive Tera type depending on the matchup, essentially handpicking its own checks and counters in the builder. Combine this with Tera Blast to fill out any coverage Zarude may be missing from its already great movepool, and other powerful offensive wallbreakers like Garchomp and Iron Valiant that can enable a Bulk Up sweep, and you have arguably the strongest Pokémon Generation 9 has to offer right now.

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Pokémon Falling Off:

Deoxys-S

Clocking in with an outrageous base 180 Speed stat, Deoxys-S established itself as a top metagame threat when it was first added to the Draft Pool in the Draft League World Cup. But as the metagame developed, Deoxys-S has been left in the dust. With a middling stat line, barring the Speed stat, and a pure Psychic typing, Deoxys-S leaves much to be desired. Tools like Nasty Plot and Psycho Boost do help to overcome the hurdle of poor offenses, but immediate wallbreaking power is much more necessary for Pokémon in SV, and Deoxys-S is not adding anything to your team in that regard.

Arguably the biggest issue with Deoxys-S is the opportunity cost. Deoxys-S is consistently priced at 17 points or higher in the Smogon Draft tournaments and is generally considered to be a round 1 pick. But why should you pick up Deoxys-S, when other similarly priced Pokémon offer so much more? While Deoxys-S doesn’t offer up the most potent offenses, it does provide valuable utility with moves like Reflect, Light Screen, Stealth Rock, Spikes, and a fast Taunt. But there are other, better Pokémon that offer up similar skills at a fraction of the cost. Sure, you will not find another Pokémon with Taunt as fast as Deoxys-S, but Grimmsnarl gets Prankster Taunt + dual screens support while being only 8 points. Tinkaton also offers dual screens as well as Stealth Rock and is supported by a great Fairy / Steel typing, again at a fraction of the cost. Why get Deoxys-S when you can get a powerful offensive Pokémon round 1, then draft lower-tier support that can be customized to support that specific Pokémon’s strengths?

And while Deoxys-S may be “Draft’s Fastest Pokémon,” that moniker is very misleading. Plenty of Pokémon in Generation 9 are, or at the very least can be, faster than Deoxys-S. Ignoring the obvious Speed Booster Energy Iron Valiant and Roaring Moon, Pokémon like Greninja and Ogerpon have signature abilities that allow them to outrun Deoxys-S with ease and can force it out with powerful STAB moves or super effective attacks. Then there are the Pokémon that consistently run a Choice Scarf, such as Enamorus and the Lati twins. And finally, there are the Pokémon that run Speed-boosting moves in their arsenal like Iron Treads and Zarude with Rapid Spin and Trailblaze, respectively, which can let them be faster than Deoxys-S over the course of a game. And all that doesn’t even mention the prominence of priority moves like Sucker Punch, Jet Punch, and Extreme Speed, which can feel mandatory in a metagame as offensive as Generation 9.

Previously, in the “Pokémon on the Rise” section, a major theme as to why all those Pokémon are on the rise is because of a mixture of consistency and set variety. But Deoxys-S is a rare example showcasing that set variety isn’t everything. On paper, Deoxys-S has a lot going for it—Speed, utility, and powerful offensive moves—but in practice, it lags behind significantly compared to other Pokémon in its price range.

Kingambit

No longer a pawn or a bishop, Kingambit takes its final stage in the evolutionary line of Pawniard and Bisharp. While these two Pokémon were never draft staples in previous generations, a dual Dark / Steel STAB typing and an extra 65 base stats were enough to turn heads for this Pokémon initially. Coupled with some cool new toys like a new signature ability in Supreme Overlord, an ability that gives Kingambit 10% more power for each fainted ally (up to 5) and a new Dark-type STAB, Kowtow Cleave, this Pokémon seemed posed to ascend to the top of Generation 9’s best Pokémon. But why hasn’t it?

One reason for Kingambit’s fall is tiering indecision. When Kingambit was first legal in the Draft Kickoff Tournament, Terastallization was the Wild West. Many Pokémon, such as Dragonite, Volcarona, and Chien-Pao were allowed to Terastallize in this early metagame, and Kingambit was no exception here. Many people realized how good Kingambit was with, say, Tera Fire to avoid Will-O-Wisp burns, or Tera Dark to boost its damage to crazy heights with the aforementioned Supreme Overlord boost. This initially caused Kingambit to be Tera banned from most Draft boards because of the offensive nature of the early metagame where strong, powerful attacks ruled and frankly worse overall drafted teams that didn’t or couldn’t deal with the teambuilding pressure this Pokémon had on the metagame.

But looking at the Draft board today, you may realize that Kingambit has been freed and is now able to Terastallize again. So why is it still on the fall? Well, simply put, Kingambit can no longer keep up. Saddled with an abysmal base 50 Speed, Kingambit often relies on priority in Sucker Punch to output damage to foes that outspeed it. The problem, however, is that as priority moves across the board have gotten more use, so have the countermeasures to them. Options like Substitute, Encore, and various other setup options create mind games with your opponent, but with only 8 PP in Sucker Punch, you are bound to lose more interactions than you will win.

To those optimistic on Kingambit, what it does provide is one of the best base typings for a Pokémon, with a powerful offensive typing in Dark and a strong defensive typing in Steel, as well as significant bulk that allows it to live a hit and strike back incredibly hard. And with access to options like Iron Head, Thunder Wave, Stealth Rock, and Swords Dance, Kingambit will always offer enough value to be worthwhile on any team; it’s just no longer as oppressive as it once was believed to be in the past.

Palafin

When it was first introduced to Generation 9, Palafin was a hard Pokémon to ignore. Despite starting off with a less-than-stellar base stat total of 457, after switching out, Palafin enters “Hero Form,” where the base stat total jumps up to a crazy 650, on par with most legendaries. Paired with the fact that Palafin has a solid defensive typing with a pure Water typing, a new signature move in Jet Punch, and a toolkit including the likes of Bulk Up, Wave Crash, Close Combat, and even a few powerful special options like Boomburst and Ice Beam, Palafin dominated the early Generation 9 metagame. But as Generation 9 drags on, Palafin has seen less and less usage, with only 3 teams taking it in DCL II (2 before midseason), 1 team taking it in DFL, and only 1 Palafin making top 8 in the Summer Seasonal. And, while draft statistics is not everything, it’s hard to not notice after Palafin was on the winning Summer Seasonal team just a year prior and made finals in this year’s Winter Seasonal.

One of the major reasons that Palafin is on the fall right now is the prevalence of other, new top-tier threats. After the start of the generation, Greninja and Ogerpon-W established themselves as competing first-round Water-types. Both faster than Palafin, Greninja carves out the niche of being a solid special attacker, whereas Ogerpon-W is able to hit opposing Water-types for super effective damage with its Grass-type STAB moves, which is particularly rough for Palafin when combined with its ability, Water Absorb, providing an immunity to Palafin’s best tools. And new competing Water-types are just the start, with DLC, new updates, and metagame shifts giving rise to Ogerpon, Zarude, Raging Bolt, and Meowscarada—all of which are powerful offensive Pokémon that hit Water-types like Palafin super effectively. Specifically, Ogerpon and Meowscarada are extra tricky for Palafin to deal with, since they both outrun Palafin by a significant margin and are able to run more bulk investment to eat more hits from Palafin despite being frail, offensive Pokémon. Coupled with powerful signature moves that have a high critical hit chance in Ivy Cudgel and Flower Trick, Ogerpon and Meowscarada are able to brute force their way through Palafin’s popular Bulk Up set. All in all, it can be hard to see the value in drafting Palafin when it is competing with not only other powerful Water-types that fulfill similar niches but also popular offensive Pokémon that can power through Palafin.

And this doesn’t even begin to mention Palafin’s biggest problem: reliably setting up Hero Form. In theory, it is very simple to get Palafin into its Hero Form; just switch it in, then switch it out. The problem becomes how. Leading Palafin turn 1 is now very telegraphed, but starting with Palafin in Zero Form is arguably even worse. Which is better: leading Palafin into a disadvantaged situation turn 1, or keeping Palafin in the back, making your team weaker initially but gaining some valuable momentum early-game? And not leading Palafin has other problems, such as an increased need for entry hazard control. Most powerful breakers can come in at any point and wreak havoc, but not Palafin; it needs to enter twice, taking double the hazard damage before it can do anything. This creates a reliance on Palafin teams to draft a strong hazard removal core to even use Palafin effectively in a generation where a lot of hazard removal was removed.

And while this all may seem bad for Palafin, keep in mind that Palafin still has a ton of great tools in its arsenal, most notably Jet Punch, a 60-Base Power Water-type STAB attack with +1 priority, which can feel like bringing a rocket launcher to a game of Rock-Paper-Scissors, and other great utility moves like Encore, Taunt, and Haze that make Palafin a top-tier threat not to be messed with.

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Conclusion

In a constant, ever-evolving metagame, understanding and keeping up with the current Pokémon trends—especially in a format like Draft where you are stuck with these Pokémon for an extended period of time—is crucial to playing at a high level, far more so than in the standard tiers. And while this is by no means an exhaustive list of every Pokémon on the rise and fall, this list should serve as a general baseline for those new and wanting to learn the most up-to-date Draft strategies for Generation 9. But, most importantly, what determines if a Pokémon is on the rise or fall is not the base stat total or usage percentage, rather how the player uses the Pokémon they have drafted. Pokémon in Draft are only ever as good as the player piloting them, so if there’s a Pokémon you want to see on the rise instead, only one person is needed to be the change necessary to make that happen.

If this is your first time hearing about Draft, make sure you check out Rissoux’s other two articles on Draft and be sure to join the Official Smogon Draft Discord where all of the drafts are done and you can chat with top players, learn about current and upcoming tournaments, and stay up to date with all things Draft!