No. Because your item is so much more powerful that it is something of a game-breaker. And there is some, shall we say, OVERLAP between them, which I also doubt would happen.
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Mario Kart Mafia (NOC) END: VILLAGE WINS
- Thread starter Eagle4
- Start date
I have to say I am fairly skeptical argument, especially given how vague your role claim was in the first place. Also, you never said anything about you having an item as far as I can remember, so good job slipping in extra information without directly addressing it. Seems pretty scummy to me. I would be more convinced by a direct claim from you than your constant vague insinuations.
@Paperblade I don't have anything that says I can pass it, but people have been speculation about the possibility of an item thief. There also might be some other role/roles or item/items that could manipulate items in some way.
Paperblade: Items have p. much been confirmed.
Zyphir: no, your item is so much stronger than my POWER. However, if you *can* pass it, do so to our dear BG. Ask Eagle4 about it, I guess.
Anyways, it's not Zyphir I need to convince how scummy his claim is, just 6 other people.
Zyphir: no, your item is so much stronger than my POWER. However, if you *can* pass it, do so to our dear BG. Ask Eagle4 about it, I guess.
Anyways, it's not Zyphir I need to convince how scummy his claim is, just 6 other people.
@Aura Guardian My item is much stronger than my power as well (I am a vanillager). I really don't see it as suspicious, especially since items are the main source of powers in Mario Kart. I'll ask Eagle4 about passing, although if it's not in my role description or the rules anywhere, I don't see why I would be able to do it.
It's not that the item is stronger than a power, it's that it's totally stupid. If someone had your role and hadn't claimed today for whatever reason and mafia decided to kill him, rather than a villager dying, a mafia dies, which is a ridiculous swing in power. And unlike a BPV it encourages vigs to not test you since if you're real, they die. Heck, you could be mafia and telling the truth about that item just because it's a bit less hideously op.
Yeah, my power has a hefty restriction on it. Your item? Seriously, I hosted a game with that power in it once, and it BROKE THE GAME IN HALF. I highly doubt there would be ANOTHER power like mine, only an order of magnitude stronger
Ok, that might not have been phrased well... Let me re-try. The power you named yourself as having is an order of magnitude stronger than mine. Ok, Inpsector is, too, but your power overlaps mine. Yeah, in essence, your item claim is absurd.
If you think about it, my power is less OP than a vigilante would be, which for some reason Celever was assuming was barty/Acklow/Walrein's role if any of you remember.
The Math: 12 players. 3 mafia. 9 villagers. Assuming mafia have 1 nightkill (anything more than this would be ridiculous, i think), they have a 1/9 (11%) probability of hitting me, and my power only works once. Vigilante has a 3/11 (27%) of hitting a mafia, and gets multiple shots at this, so I honestly don't see how this breaks the game as long the mafia don't get really unlucky.
And I really think you should actually give a claim rather than continuing with your vague lists of possible powers and talking about overlap. Someone who can view a persons night actions, and an inspector also have overlap, and those roles might be in this game. I really think you should claim because, as I said earlier, your claim was already vague and scummy.
The Math: 12 players. 3 mafia. 9 villagers. Assuming mafia have 1 nightkill (anything more than this would be ridiculous, i think), they have a 1/9 (11%) probability of hitting me, and my power only works once. Vigilante has a 3/11 (27%) of hitting a mafia, and gets multiple shots at this, so I honestly don't see how this breaks the game as long the mafia don't get really unlucky.
And I really think you should actually give a claim rather than continuing with your vague lists of possible powers and talking about overlap. Someone who can view a persons night actions, and an inspector also have overlap, and those roles might be in this game. I really think you should claim because, as I said earlier, your claim was already vague and scummy.
I'm speaking from experience: What you claimed breaks the game in half. Seriously, I saw it happen as a co-host in Monsters Mafia. And all you need is to survive until near the end, and you can practically guarantee a victory if your claim is real. Also, what Paperblade said
Watcher, Tracker, Results Thief, and Inspector are all rather different, don't try to equate them for overlap. Inspector is probably in this game, yes, but I doubt any other info roles.
As for your math: Run it to it's completion. It branches a lot, but here are the probabilities:
Path 1: D1 lynch Mafia. 1/9 of mafia hitting you N1
Path 1.1: D2 lynch Mafia: if you are never lynched, mafia CANNOT win, and village thus has 7/8 winning and 1/8 of everyone dies.
Path 1.2 D2 lynch Village: 1/7 of hitting you N2; Total: 24.81% of the mafia hitting you by then
Path 1.2.1 D2 lynch Mafia: as Path 1.1, but with slightly worse odds for the village
Path 1.2.2 D2 lynch Village: 1/5 of hitting you N; Total: 39.15 of the mafia hitting you by then
Path 1.2.2.1 D3 lynch Mafia: as Path 1.1, but with worse odds
Path 1.2.2.2 D3 Lynch Village: 1/3 of hitting you by now, Mafia will 59.47% likely HAVE HIT YOU by now. Thus, mafia likely will be really weak now.
Note that if lynching mafia twice is likely enough to be something in need of balancing. As such, your power is unbelievable and probably sheer BS to get MS off your back.
Watcher, Tracker, Results Thief, and Inspector are all rather different, don't try to equate them for overlap. Inspector is probably in this game, yes, but I doubt any other info roles.
As for your math: Run it to it's completion. It branches a lot, but here are the probabilities:
Path 1: D1 lynch Mafia. 1/9 of mafia hitting you N1
Path 1.1: D2 lynch Mafia: if you are never lynched, mafia CANNOT win, and village thus has 7/8 winning and 1/8 of everyone dies.
Path 1.2 D2 lynch Village: 1/7 of hitting you N2; Total: 24.81% of the mafia hitting you by then
Path 1.2.1 D2 lynch Mafia: as Path 1.1, but with slightly worse odds for the village
Path 1.2.2 D2 lynch Village: 1/5 of hitting you N; Total: 39.15 of the mafia hitting you by then
Path 1.2.2.1 D3 lynch Mafia: as Path 1.1, but with worse odds
Path 1.2.2.2 D3 Lynch Village: 1/3 of hitting you by now, Mafia will 59.47% likely HAVE HIT YOU by now. Thus, mafia likely will be really weak now.
Note that if lynching mafia twice is likely enough to be something in need of balancing. As such, your power is unbelievable and probably sheer BS to get MS off your back.
Oh, Paperblade: Just because you subbed in doesn't mean I'm not suspicious of your slot given what Solar Vapor did. I'll just deal with you later, is all. And yes, the question I ask of you WILL be one that makes you go through many posts before you subbed in, but I've done that a lot for my reads, so you can suffer, too.
wow what a well reasoned case!
I'm screwed for subbing for inactive/new players, screwed for being new and making a mistake, and screwed for having a bad role. ;-; Oh well. I will try to give some more reads now.
First one is @Spiffy
He makes quality posts with many pieces of evidence and analysis. He seems to think things through thoroughly before making decisions. Unfortunately, from what other people have said in this mafia, it seems that he generally plays the same way whether he is mafia or village, so I don't know how well I can really analyze him. At the beginning, he seemed to be tunneling a bit on Metal Sonic, but MS was really drawing attention to himself from everyone with his whole "No More #1 Scumhunter" stunt. He had that long interaction with Celever that seemed to have a hint of bussing, but it seems everyone has agreed that that really didn't mean anything. Beyond that Spiffy has been pretty pro-town, so I am giving Town as my read on him.
Next up @Walrein
We all know about his predecessor's most notorious action. For Paperblade and any forgetful people, barty made a vague power role claim and then after being put at L-1 and being repeatedly asked to claim by almost everyone, he claimed to be a vanillager and quit the game. As for Walrein, he hasn't done much, even though he has had plenty of time to get involved in the game. He has mostly made very short posts, just a few lines or even just one line. He made one list of quick reads, and other than that, he has only made the very occasional moderately sized thoughtful post. This seems like scum avoiding attention to me. Right I will say Slightly Scum.
@Woodchuck
He has made consistent, thoughtful, and somewhat infrequent posts that seem pretty pro-town to me. For the most part, he has shown a strong village alignment. However, he seems to be an experienced mafia player who probably wouldn't easily show signs of being mafia, so he is difficult to definitively analyze, but for now I think he is Town.
@Paperblade You seem to be basing your vote on just a few posts. I think you should make an effort to at least skim through the game and read the more recent posts. At the very least, you should listen to arguments from more than 3 people if you haven't read through more of the game. I read through the 500 posts that existed when I subbed in over the course of a few days, and I believe Walrein did the same when he subbed in, so if you have the time you should at least try to skim through the game a bit. I will be giving an analysis of Solar Vapor a bit later.
I would like to clarify something about my being a "known poster of bullshit."
Here are the original posts with the bullshit bolded. Please note that these are the only things I posted that contained bullshit. They will also have explanations for the bullshit.
#503
#504
#506
#512
All of my other posts have been legitimate posts, reasoned through with a purpose.
Unfortunately, since there has been confusion about another post as well, I will address that now.
#534
Also @Paperblade
Would you like to elaborate on this statement:
First one is @Spiffy
He makes quality posts with many pieces of evidence and analysis. He seems to think things through thoroughly before making decisions. Unfortunately, from what other people have said in this mafia, it seems that he generally plays the same way whether he is mafia or village, so I don't know how well I can really analyze him. At the beginning, he seemed to be tunneling a bit on Metal Sonic, but MS was really drawing attention to himself from everyone with his whole "No More #1 Scumhunter" stunt. He had that long interaction with Celever that seemed to have a hint of bussing, but it seems everyone has agreed that that really didn't mean anything. Beyond that Spiffy has been pretty pro-town, so I am giving Town as my read on him.
Next up @Walrein
We all know about his predecessor's most notorious action. For Paperblade and any forgetful people, barty made a vague power role claim and then after being put at L-1 and being repeatedly asked to claim by almost everyone, he claimed to be a vanillager and quit the game. As for Walrein, he hasn't done much, even though he has had plenty of time to get involved in the game. He has mostly made very short posts, just a few lines or even just one line. He made one list of quick reads, and other than that, he has only made the very occasional moderately sized thoughtful post. This seems like scum avoiding attention to me. Right I will say Slightly Scum.
@Woodchuck
He has made consistent, thoughtful, and somewhat infrequent posts that seem pretty pro-town to me. For the most part, he has shown a strong village alignment. However, he seems to be an experienced mafia player who probably wouldn't easily show signs of being mafia, so he is difficult to definitively analyze, but for now I think he is Town.
@Paperblade You seem to be basing your vote on just a few posts. I think you should make an effort to at least skim through the game and read the more recent posts. At the very least, you should listen to arguments from more than 3 people if you haven't read through more of the game. I read through the 500 posts that existed when I subbed in over the course of a few days, and I believe Walrein did the same when he subbed in, so if you have the time you should at least try to skim through the game a bit. I will be giving an analysis of Solar Vapor a bit later.
I would like to clarify something about my being a "known poster of bullshit."
Here are the original posts with the bullshit bolded. Please note that these are the only things I posted that contained bullshit. They will also have explanations for the bullshit.
#503
I was hoping to get reactions from Woodchuck and Blackhawk11 to use to judge their scumminess, but Houndoomsday and Blackhawk11's and Woodchuck's intelligence essentially broke that attempt. My other statements in this post were completely legitimate and reasoned through (not bullshit).Zyphirex said:
#504
This was hoping for a reaction to buddying from people and possibly a reaction from Snaquaza. This also failed because it was largely ignored and only garnered a few responses.Zyphirex said:
#506
This was just continuing my attempt at pressuring Woodchuck, and throwing out a vague explanation for the Snaquaza bullshit while hoping for some more reactions. I legitimately thought that Houndoomsday seemed scummy.Zyphirex said:
#512
The only bullshit in here is that I didn't have any evidence on Woodchuck. Everything else was legitimate.Zyphirex said:
All of my other posts have been legitimate posts, reasoned through with a purpose.
Unfortunately, since there has been confusion about another post as well, I will address that now.
#534
This is called a joke. If you don't know what the word "joke" means, look it up in a dictionary. If you don't get the joke, it's supposed to be funny because Eagle4 is the host of this game. I was just trying to have a little laugh. Aren't we playing mafia to have fun? Feel free to analyze this as an important part of all of your decisions for the rest of the game. If you didn't think my joke was funny, sux 4 u.Zyphirex said:
Also @Paperblade
Would you like to elaborate on this statement:
Paperblade said:
Ok yeah I was on the "@Zyphirex is townie" train until he claimed that he had that item. I agree with several other players when they say that it is impossible for that item to be in the game and still have balance between village and mafia (and possibly other third parties??).
@Snaquaza still has yet to post a defense for things that he was called out on many pages ago and still posts crap so I feel like this lynch is scum vs. scum. I am ok with either Snaquaza or Zyphirex being lynched today. I will be online at deadline (I think) so I can prevent a tie in the case that there still is one.
I am ok with Aura Guardian's vague claim for now but if Celever is killed tonight we need a full claim tomorrow.
Nice of Jalmont to finally join us with something relevant after three weeks and only 24 hours before deadline. -_-
Paperblade thanks for subbing in you'll have a GREAT time.
I'd prefer Zyphirex to be lynched today for his item claim alone so I will Unvote Snaquaza for now but I'm not certain where the vote count is at so I won't vote at the moment.
@Snaquaza still has yet to post a defense for things that he was called out on many pages ago and still posts crap so I feel like this lynch is scum vs. scum. I am ok with either Snaquaza or Zyphirex being lynched today. I will be online at deadline (I think) so I can prevent a tie in the case that there still is one.
I am ok with Aura Guardian's vague claim for now but if Celever is killed tonight we need a full claim tomorrow.
Nice of Jalmont to finally join us with something relevant after three weeks and only 24 hours before deadline. -_-
Paperblade thanks for subbing in you'll have a GREAT time.
I'd prefer Zyphirex to be lynched today for his item claim alone so I will Unvote Snaquaza for now but I'm not certain where the vote count is at so I won't vote at the moment.
No. Experienced players do care if they get lynched but they show it differently. Basically I would expect a more experienced players to play nearly the same when they are on the chopping block while I there probably is a noticeable difference in behavior between a beginner mafia and a beginner town.
the item claim is very bad and for the sake of not repeating everyone i will say that my mind is p. much changed on that front (claims >>> reads) i'm going to try and research the item and see if there's any remote chance of it occurring ?? i really doubt it though
maybe i should kill spiffy instead o.o